Even elite pitching prospects cannot be trusted

The Miami Marlins finally moved on from Sixto Sánchez. The decision was obvious and overdue, but it's shocking nonetheless to reflect on. Just a few years ago, Sánchez was a legitimate candidate to emerge as the franchise's most valuable and most marketable player; now, he is more expendable than Mike Baumann or Jhonny Pereda.

Sánchez was a highly regarded prospect at the time of his acquisition in February 2019. As far as I can recall, Marlins fans were not excited about trading J.T. Realmuto, but getting somebody with his upside as the deal's centerpiece was making the best of a bad scenario. His stock only went up following an impressive handful of major league starts in 2020. The Marlins overcame a COVID outbreak to sneak into an expanded postseason field. If not for Sixto, they likely would've fallen short of that achievement.

Sánchez's prospect eligibility remained intact entering 2021. He was still only 22 years old and had pitched at a 4-5 fWAR level when extrapolated over a full-length season. Understandably, practically every reputable national outlet ranked him among MLB's top prospects. Baseball America had him at No. 6, FanGraphs had him at No. 39 and MLB Pipeline had him at No. 15.

Four seasons isn't quite enough to gauge what a former prospect has become in some cases, but I thought you would find this context useful. The following pitchers were also consensus Top 50 MLB prospects according to the pre-2021 Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline lists:

• RHP Ian Anderson—108 ERA+ and 3.8 fWAR in 272.1 IP
• RHP Logan Gilbert—106 ERA+ and 12.4 fWAR in 704.1 IP
• LHP MacKenzie Gore—97 ERA+ and 5.2 fWAR in 372.2 IP
• LHP Asa Lacy—no MLB experience
• RHP Matt Manning—94 ERA+ and 2.7 fWAR in 254.0 IP
• RHP Max Meyer—77 ERA+ and -0.4 fWAR in 63.0 IP
• RHP Casey Mize—97 ERA+ and 2.4 fWAR in 291.0 IP
• RHP Luis Patiño—82 ERA+ and 0.0 fWAR in 136.1 IP
• RHP Nate Pearson—89 ERA+ and -0.2 fWAR in 142.0 IP
• RHP Grayson Rodriguez—95 ERA+ and 3.8 fWAR in 238.2 IP
• RHP Sixto Sánchez—97 ERA+ and 1.1 fWAR in 74.2 IP
• LHP Tarik Skubal—123 ERA+ and 12.5 fWAR in 571.1 IP

Skubal and Gilbert are now in a tier of their own. The former should win the 2024 AL Cy Young award unanimously, while the latter led the league in innings pitched. They have turned into exactly the kind of top-of-the-rotation arms that talent evaluators envisioned.

On the other end of the spectrum, there is Sánchez and Lacy. It's unlikely that either of them ever makes another start or high-leverage appearance in the majors again. In large part due to injuries, their careers may be unsalvageable.

Everybody else is somewhere in between.

This is not only a Sixto Sánchez article, but a Thomas White article as well. White has been Fish On First's top-ranked Marlins farmhand throughout the last six months. Entering 2025, I would expect the rest of the industry to agree on that (BA already does). He has a tantalizing combination of pitch quality, results against older competition and physical projectability. Assuming White is still prospect-eligible in 2026—his age-21 season—he should be a consensus Top 50 guy, just like Sánchez was a half-decade earlier.

The hype is deserved...and yet it does not guarantee anything. Pitcher health is so unpredictable, and the talent gap between the upper minors and the majors has never been bigger.

By 2030, White could be the ace of the Marlins or he could be a Triple-A afterthought. At FOF, we get to know Miami prospects thoroughly on and off the field. We'll make educated guesses about what they're ultimately gonna become, but particularly on the pitching side, the range of outcomes will always be wide.