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During the middle portion of the 2024 season, Arias was quietly one of the best relievers at the Triple-A level. It's shaping up to be a "let the kids play" type of season for the Miami Marlins in 2025 where they will lean heavily on individuals with limited MLB experience. Some are poised to get their very first taste of the majors, such as right-handed reliever Luarbert Arias. Although Arias was passed over for opportunities late in the 2024 campaign when the Marlins were scrambling for bullpen arms, they expressed their affection by selecting him to the 40-man roster on Monday to avoid losing him in minor league free agency. Signed by the San Diego Padres out of Venezuela in 2017, Arias had only progressed to the Low-A level by the end of the 2021 season. The Marlins took a flier on him in the minor league phase of that year's Rule 5 Draft. In three seasons since then, Arias ranks tied for second among all Marlins prospects with 112 MiLB pitching appearances. That is a testament to his durability—zero injured list stints—and also how conservative his development has been. In most cases, if you post a sub-3.00 ERA and 30% strikeout rate over such an extended period with no health concerns, you stop accruing minor league stats because you get called up! That call-up should be coming at some point next year now that Arias is on the 40-man and has a full season of Triple-A reps under his belt. He battled through inconsistent stretches at the beginning and end of 2024, but for three months right in the middle, from May 17 through August 18, he surrendered only three earned runs in 36 ⅔ innings pitched (0.74 ERA). Arias limits hard contact for the most part. With Jacksonville, the average exit velocity against him was 87.7 mph, identical to what Anthony Bender allowed for the Marlins. Bender ranked in the 78th percentile among qualified MLB pitchers. A key difference between them, however, is that Bender reliably induces ground balls while Arias has been an extreme flyball pitcher. He has had a 30.2 GB% since joining the Marlins org—that is just barely outside the bottom 1% of all minor leaguers with 100-plus innings pitched during the same span. Also, Arias does not spin the ball with the same proficiency as Bender. Arias' fastball velo varies quite a bit, peaking at 99 mph, but dipping as low as 90 mph (average of 94.2 mph). Here he is freezing future teammate Connor Norby at 97 mph for a ꓘ. R1pQYllfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JnbFRWVlpRQlFFQVdnUUFWUUFBQWxkZkFGbFdVMWdBVndBRUNRRlhWMVZSQmxFRA==.mp4 Arias posted extreme reverse platoon splits in 2024, allowing a .807 OPS to right-handed batters and a .541 OPS to lefties. That looks to be a mirage created by batted ball luck. His home run, strikeout and walk rates held very steady regardless of handedness, and he didn't have meaningful splits in 2022 or 2023. In terms of pitch mix and characteristics, delivery and body type, Arias resembles a right-handed version of Andrew Nardi. The Marlins' decision to select him would be validated if he's able to mirror Nardi's effectiveness. View full article

Miami Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix spoke to MLB.com's Martin Gallegos during this week's just-completed GM Meetings in San Antonio, Texas. As relayed via Christina De Nicola's Marlins Beat newsletter, here is what Bendix said in regard to possible offseason player movement: "We will be very much involved in the free-agent market. We will be very much involved in the trade market. There's a lot of different ways that we can make our club better.” You will recall that last offseason—Bendix's first as Miami's POBO—he utterly failed to make the club better. With the Marlins coming off a 2023 postseason berth, his most accomplished acquisitions, shortstop Tim Anderson and catcher Christian Bethancourt, struggled so badly that both were released before the All-Star break. Anderson was the only member of the 2023-24 free agent class to receive a guaranteed major league deal from the Fish. This time around, Bendix has more payroll flexibility with which to operate, but external expectations for the club are lower coming off a 62-100 campaign. Fish On First has highlighted Harrison Bader, John Brebbia, Jakob Junis and Yoán Moncada as free agents who should be attainable on short-term, relatively cheap deals. View full rumor

Fish On First has branched out to bring our Miami Marlins coverage to yet another social media network: Bluesky. Those of you who are already on Bluesky or want to try it out for the first time, follow @fishonfirst.bsky.social! I originally set up the account last offseason, but will now be posting and interacting with followers there on a daily basis. Bluesky's features are similar to Twitter. However, the app is ad-free and vigilant about preventing "bot" accounts from replying to/privately messaging users. FOF content posted there will be the same as what we already post on Twitter. Now's a good time to remind you that FOF is also active on these social networks: Twitter/X YouTube Instagram Discord TikTok

There is no doubt that he would have a decent batting average in the majors. I think the team doesn't trust him in the other aspects of the game (his power, fielding and defense). I wanted him to get a chance at the end of 2023. He might've gotten one this past season if Jonah Bride had failed. Unfortunately, looks like the Marlins have now fully shut the door on him.

While the demise of Sixto Sánchez's career was an extreme case, it's almost as uncommon for top-ranked pitching prospects to actually reach their full potential. The Miami Marlins finally moved on from Sixto Sánchez. The decision was obvious and overdue, but it's shocking nonetheless to reflect on. Just a few years ago, Sánchez was a legitimate candidate to emerge as the franchise's most valuable and most marketable player; now, he is more expendable than Mike Baumann or Jhonny Pereda. Sánchez was a highly regarded prospect at the time of his acquisition in February 2019. As far as I can recall, Marlins fans were not excited about trading J.T. Realmuto, but getting somebody with his upside as the deal's centerpiece was making the best of a bad scenario. His stock only went up following an impressive handful of major league starts in 2020. The Marlins overcame a COVID outbreak to sneak into an expanded postseason field. If not for Sixto, they likely would've fallen short of that achievement. Sánchez's prospect eligibility remained intact entering 2021. He was still only 22 years old and had pitched at a 4-5 fWAR level when extrapolated over a full-length season. Understandably, practically every reputable national outlet ranked him among MLB's top prospects. Baseball America had him at No. 6, FanGraphs had him at No. 39 and MLB Pipeline had him at No. 15. Four seasons isn't quite enough to gauge what a former prospect has become in some cases, but I thought you would find this context useful. The following pitchers were also consensus Top 50 MLB prospects according to the pre-2021 Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline lists: RHP Ian Anderson—108 ERA+ and 3.8 fWAR in 272.1 IP RHP Logan Gilbert—106 ERA+ and 12.4 fWAR in 704.1 IP LHP MacKenzie Gore—97 ERA+ and 5.2 fWAR in 372.2 IP LHP Asa Lacy—no MLB experience RHP Matt Manning—94 ERA+ and 2.7 fWAR in 254.0 IP RHP Max Meyer—77 ERA+ and -0.4 fWAR in 63.0 IP RHP Casey Mize—97 ERA+ and 2.4 fWAR in 291.0 IP RHP Luis Patiño—82 ERA+ and 0.0 fWAR in 136.1 IP RHP Nate Pearson—89 ERA+ and -0.2 fWAR in 142.0 IP RHP Grayson Rodriguez—95 ERA+ and 3.8 fWAR in 238.2 IP RHP Sixto Sánchez—97 ERA+ and 1.1 fWAR in 74.2 IP LHP Tarik Skubal—123 ERA+ and 12.5 fWAR in 571.1 IP Skubal and Gilbert are now in a tier of their own. The former should win the 2024 AL Cy Young award unanimously, while the latter led the league in innings pitched. They have turned into exactly the kind of top-of-the-rotation arms that talent evaluators envisioned. On the other end of the spectrum, there is Sánchez and Lacy. It's unlikely that either of them ever makes another start or high-leverage appearance in the majors again. In large part due to injuries, their careers may be unsalvageable. Everybody else is somewhere in between. This is not only a Sixto Sánchez article, but a Thomas White article as well. White has been Fish On First's top-ranked Marlins farmhand throughout the last six months. Entering 2025, I would expect the rest of the industry to agree on that (BA already does). He has a tantalizing combination of pitch quality, results against older competition and physical projectability. Assuming White is still prospect-eligible in 2026—his age-21 season—he should be a consensus Top 50 guy, just like Sánchez was a half-decade earlier. The hype is deserved...and yet it does not guarantee anything. Pitcher health is so unpredictable, and the talent gap between the upper minors and the majors has never been bigger. By 2030, White could be the ace of the Marlins or he could be a Triple-A afterthought. At FOF, we get to know Miami prospects thoroughly on and off the field. We'll make educated guesses about what they're ultimately gonna become, but particularly on the pitching side, the range of outcomes will always be wide. View full article

Definitely. The concern is that he is too reliant on his slider, but to essentially lose him for nothing is unacceptable considering that he's healthy and so closely removed from excelling vs. Triple-A competition. Should've been re-evaluated in spring training before giving up on him.

Teams trading reliable star players in their prime almost always lose the trade. The Realmuto one was especially disappointing because he was open-minded about an extension. The Marlins just didn't come close enough to offering fair value for him to stay long term.

From October 17 through November 3, Marlins prospect Troy Johnston recorded hits in every game he played for Toros Del Este in the Dominican Winter League. View full video

Today's news roundup also includes the end of the Sixto Sánchez era. On Monday out in the desert, OF Andrew Pintar went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and UTIL Dalvy Rosario went 0-for-2 with a walk. The Peoria Javelinas won for change, 3-2. However, it's mathematically impossible for them to get back to the .500 mark by season's end. The Arizona Fall League announced its eight home run derby participants. OF Kemp Alderman is tied for second in the league in homers, but he was not included after having missed two full weeks and counting for his wedding and honeymoon. In the Dominican Winter League, OF Jesús Sánchez went 2-for-3 with 1 RBI and UTIL Vidal Bruján went 1-for-4 with 2 RBI. Troy Johnston's 13-game hit streak was snapped. I put together a brief highlight package of the streak. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 Sixto Sánchez's Marlins tenure is over. Rated as the organization's top pitching prospect as recently as 2021, his career has collapsed due to chronic shoulder issues. Rather than reinstate him from the 60-day injured list, the Marlins passed him through waivers and he elected free agency on Monday. 🔷 Marlins relievers John McMillon, Anthony Maldonado and Michael Petersen were claimed off waivers by the Phillies, Athletics and Blue Jays, respectively. McMillon and Maldonado were on the short list of most dominant relievers in the minor leagues in 2023, but the former finished this season with an elbow injury, and the latter is very reliant on his slider and had shaky results in his first taste of the majors. I still would've held onto Maldonado in order to evaluate him further in spring training rather than to essentially lose him for nothing. 🔷 Lefty Josh Simpson passed through waivers without being claimed. As a 2019 draft pick, he has to remain with the Fish for another year before qualifying for minor league free agency. Simpson missed the first half of 2024 while recovering from left elbow ulnar neuritis and upon returning to action, the life and command of his fastball just wasn't there, contributing to a 6.19 ERA in 16 innings against MiLB competition. He owns a terrific 34.9% strikeout rate over the course of his minor league career and figures to be at spring training as a non-roster invitee. 🔷 With Luarbert Arias eligible for minor league free agency himself, the Marlins held onto the right-hander by selecting him to the 40-man roster. Acquired three years ago via the Rule 5 Draft, Arias has a 2.78 ERA, 3.75 FIP and .198 BAA in 184.2 IP since then while climbing from Low-A to Triple-A. He's got a prototypical four-seamer/slider pitch mix with occasional changeups. He turns 24 next month. I don't mind the decision, but would've personally prioritized fellow pending free agent Elvis Alvarado instead. cmUwZVZfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1ZRWUZCZ0VNQUFJQVhWTlFBZ0FBQTFkVUFGa0JBVllBVVZSV1V3UlhCUVlHQ0FjQQ==.mp4 🔷 MLB Trade Rumors published their annual Top 50 free agents list, including contract and team predictions. Only No. 36 Kyle Higashioka and No. 49 Harrison Bader were mocked to the Marlins, and those were guesses by individual writers, not staff consensus predictions. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Silver Slugger award finalists were announced, including Marlins 1B/3B Jake Burger. He qualified in the "utility" category along with Luis Arraez, Mookie Betts and Bryan Reynolds. Award winners will be announced on November 12. View full article

After being outrighted to the minors, the former top prospect elected free agency to officially end his disappointing Marlins tenure. The Miami Marlins officially reinstated five players from the 60-day injured list on Monday: Sandy Alcantara, Braxton Garrett, Jesús Luzardo, Andrew Nardi and Eury Pérez. Right-hander Sixto Sánchez also ended the season on the 60-day IL, but the Marlins have deemed him unfit for a 40-man roster spot. As first reported by Fish On First's Isaac Azout, Sánchez passed through waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville. He is now a free agent. Right-handers Anthony Maldonado, John McMillon and Michael Petersen were also waived in corresponding moves to make room for the injured pitchers; Maldonado was claimed by the Athletics, McMillon by the Phillies and Petersen by the Blue Jays. So was left-hander Josh Simpson. He cleared waivers, but still has one year of club control remaining. Right-hander Luarbert Arias, who had been a pending minor league free agent, got selected to one of the vacant 40-man spots. Sánchez spent six seasons in the Marlins organization after being acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies as the centerpiece of the February 2019 J.T. Realmuto trade. His tenure was uniquely frustrating. Through the first two years, the deal seemed as though it could wind up as a win-win. Realmuto continued to be an excellent all-around catcher for his new club, while Sánchez reached the majors as a 22-year-old and played a critical role in snapping the Marlins' 17-year postseason drought. He then started and went five scoreless innings in Game 2 of the National League Wild Card Series, which Miami ultimately won to sweep the favored Chicago Cubs. Sánchez showed triple-digit fastball velocity, a nasty changeup for putting batters away and good command of his pitches. With his rookie eligibility still intact entering 2021, he was widely ranked in the top tier of MLB pitching prospects. Sánchez was supposed to be a lock for the 2021 Marlins Opening Day rotation, but his preseason prep fell behind schedule due to visa issues and a false positive COVID test. The Marlins assigned him to their alternate training site in Jacksonville to finish stretching out as a starter in intrasquad games. He suffered a right shoulder injury when pitching on March 31. After initial rehab efforts were unsuccessful, he underwent season-ending surgery on July 20 of that year. The expectation was that we'd see Sixto resurface at some point in 2022, but he never even sniffed a rehab assignment. Seemingly every team-provided injury update that summer reiterated that he was throwing from a distance of 45 feet, stalled at an early stage of his throwing progression. After a lost year, he underwent a second procedure in October 2022, a right shoulder arthroscopic bursectomy. Pudgy by baseball standards throughout his early 20s, Sánchez's physique was noticeably improved when he arrived to spring training in 2023. However, the quality of his stuff had deteriorated. It was another season filled with vague and discouraging reports. A Marlins team that was surprisingly in postseason contention desperately needed starting rotation depth at various points, but Sánchez wasn't ready to contribute. He finally made his return to official game action with Double-A Pensacola in September, pitching one uninspiring inning, then vanishing again. Entering 2024, Sánchez had exhausted all of his minor league options and regained much of the bad weight he had previously carried. It looked like he was at the end of the line. To his credit, he earned his place on the Marlins pitching staff. A handful of spring training injuries worked in his favor, but he also legitimately performed well in Grapefruit League competition (9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 K) and his fastball velocity gradually climbed, peaking at 98.8 mph. Once the real games began, though, it became clear that Sánchez was a shell of his former self. He could not locate with the precision he previously had, his secondary pitches lacked late movement to induce swinging strikes and his fastball velo was highly erratic. He didn't record more than three strikeouts in any outing this season. The Marlins sidelined him from June onward due to right shoulder inflammation. In 21 total MLB appearances (14 starts), Sánchez has posted a 4.70 ERA, 4.09 FIP and .276 BAA in 74 ⅔ innings pitched. He is still just 26 years old. Perhaps another team will be enticed enough by his youth and prospect pedigree to bring him to camp as a non-roster invitee. Meanwhile in Philly, Realmuto leads MLB catchers by a wide margin with 23.2 fWAR accumulated since the trade. The Phillies have reached the postseason in three straight years and he has been their starting catcher in all 34 of those postseason games. Miami's updated 40-man roster is at 38 as of Monday evening: View full article

Top highlights of Joe Mack's Gold Glove-quality defense with Double-A Pensacola this season. View full video

Today's news roundup also includes a preview of imminent Marlins transactions. On Sunday in the Dominican Winter League, RF Jesús Sánchez went 1-for-5. 1B Troy Johnston singled to extend his hit streak to 13 games. DH Deyvison De Los Santos has now recorded multiple hits in four straight starts (9-for-17 overall during that span). RF Vidal Bruján went 1-for-4. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 More transactions are coming today! It is the deadline for players on the 60-day injured list to be reinstated. For the Marlins, that means Sandy Alcantara, Braxton Garrett, Jesús Luzardo, Andrew Nardi, Eury Pérez and Sixto Sánchez. Miami's 40-man roster is current at 36, so some corresponding moves are required. Also, at 5:00 p.m. ET, eligible minor leaguers will officially become free agents. Unless they get their own last-minute 40-man spots, notable Marlins who fall into that category include C Will Banfield, RHP Elvis Alvarado and RHP Luarbert Arias. 🔷 The photo of Peter Bendix used above was taken during the 2023 GM Meetings in Scottsdale, Arizona. It was Bendix's first public appearance after being hired as Marlins president of baseball operations. This year, the event is in San Antonio, Texas, beginning tonight. Bendix's club is the only one with an ongoing managerial vacancy. After plans to hire Craig Albernaz fell through, Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough is the likeliest candidate. McCullough still has not done an in-person interview with Marlins decision-makers, according to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson. That might have to wait until the end of the week when Bendix returns from San Antonio. 🔷 Kevin Barral added veteran swingman Jakob Junis to our series on free agent targets. 🔷 Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors explains why Jesús Luzardo ranks sixth on MLBTR's list of top offseason trade candidates: "Trading him after missing three months with a back injury certainly isn’t selling at peak value, but the Marlins can still command a good return for the left-hander." 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Gold Glove awards were announced. There were 14 first-time winners. The Royals and Michael Wacha agreed on a three-year, $51M contract extension that includes a 2028 club option (Wacha would have otherwise declined his player option and elected free agency). Decisions are due today on all MLB players who have 2025 contract options. RHP Roki Sasaki, who is regarded as Japan's most-talented pitcher, declined a contract offer from his current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, Francys Romero reports. It's possible that Sasaki could be posted for MLB teams as soon as this offseason. If so, he would be subject to international amateur free agent restrictions due to his age, much like Shohei Ohtani was seven years earlier. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Five players who contributed to the 2024 Marlins have been waived so far, including Roddery Muñoz, who landed with the St. Louis Cardinals. For most of the MLB offseason, the injured list is not a thing. Players who finished the previous season on the IL (even if they are expected to begin the upcoming season on the IL as well) either need to be rostered or made available to other teams. As the Miami Marlins prepare to officially reinstate everybody from the 60-day IL, they placed a handful of their most expendable players on waivers this week to create space on their 40-man roster. On Friday, they also scooped up right-hander Christian Roa, who had been waived by his former club after finishing 2024 on the IL himself. Cincinnati's second-round draft pick in 2020, Roa has posted a 4.46 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with 386 strikeouts in 318 ⅔ innings as a minor leaguer (86 G/62 GS). He had been developed as a starter throughout his pro career until transitioning to the bullpen in 2024 with Triple-A Louisville. A new role did not improve his results (5.55 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and 47 K in 48.2 IP). The 25-year-old last pitched on August 10, then was sidelined for the rest of the season due to a right shoulder sprain. Although the Reds transferred Roa to the major league injured list, he has no MLB regular season experience. Roa's fastball averaged 95 mph this season. He complements it with a slider, which generates almost all of his whiffs, and an occasional changeup. He had massive platoon splits, holding right-handed batters to a respectable .699 OPS, but surrendering a 1.079 OPS to lefties with more walks than strikeouts. Five players who contributed to the 2024 Marlins have been waived so far. RHP Roddery Muñoz—The others listed below cleared waivers, but Muñoz was claimed by the St. Louis Cardinals. He spent half of his rookie season in the Marlins rotation, posting a 6.53 ERA, 7.27 FIP and .268 BAA in 82.2 IP. Despite those struggles, it is mildly surprising that he was cut so early in the offseason considering he's still only 24 years old and could fare much better moving forward if utilized as a right-on-right reliever. RHP Adam Oller—Oller made eight late-season starts for the Fish (5.31 ERA, 5.32 FIP and .261 BAA in 42.1 IP). Similar to Muñoz, he possesses a nasty breaking ball that could play up in a relief role. Instead, KPRC 2's Ari Alexander reports that he's expected to "explore a move to Asia," presumably where he will have a rotation gig. RHP Darren McCaughan—The soft-tossing McCaughan had two separate stints with the Marlins organization this year (pitched for the Cleveland Guardians in between). UTIL David Hensley—Claimed right before the trade deadline, Hensley slashed .212/.293/.288 (65 wRC+) in 58 plate appearances. RHP Shaun Anderson—The Broward county native spent most of his summer with the Jumbo Shrimp. He made spot starts for the Fish on June 14 and June 22. As of late Friday afternoon, the Marlins 40-man roster is at 36. There are at least two more transactions coming soon to make room for all of the IL reinstatements. View full article

Recommending a series of hypothetical roster moves and transactions for the Miami Marlins to make this winter (and providing the rationale behind them). For the second consecutive year, I'm imagining how the Miami Marlins' offseason would go if I were in charge of baseball operations. So much has changed in a 12-month span. Last year's blueprint operated under this premise: "The Marlins have alienated their fans in the past by taking a significant step back following every postseason appearance. There needs to be some urgency about snapping that cycle in 2024, while also stopping short of depleting an already-weak farm system and accepting that [Bruce] Sherman's budget will be lower than that of most other MLB teams." Instead, Peter Bendix was practically idle throughout the offseason, then as soon as adversity struck in the spring, he raced to the bottom, compiling as many long-term assets as possible. At 62-100, the Marlins finished with MLB's third-worst winning percentage. We could have an extensive debate about whether Bendix's approach was right or wrong, but those actions are irreversible now. I'm not chasing the fantasy of 2025 playoff contention—sneaking into October would require numerous lucky breaks and the freedom to spend far more than Sherman has permitted in any of his previous seasons as principal owner. I will be striving for significant improvements at the major league level while recognizing that the Marlins could use additional minor league reinforcements in anticipation of really going for it a couple years down the road. The blueprint below basically goes in chronological order from November through pre-Opening Day extension talks, concluding with an overview of what my version of the 2025 Marlins would look like. Post-World Series roster crunch Down the stretch of the 2024 season, in the aftermath of trades and injuries, the Marlins were just trying to make it to the finish line. They promoted fringy minor leaguers and plucked whoever was available off the waiver wire. Some of these placeholders have already been squeezed off the 40-man roster. Others are about to face the same fate to make room for more impactful players. As of this writing, the 40-man roster is full, including a lot of names who frankly have no future in Miami. I'm adding the following players to the 40-man (each of these transactions would happen during the month of November): Reinstate RHP Sandy Alcantara, LHP Braxton Garrett, LHP Jesús Luzardo, LHP Andrew Nardi and RHP Eury Pérez from the 60-day injured list Select pending minor league free agent RHP Elvis Alvarado Select 1B Deyvison De Los Santos and INF Jared Serna to protect from the Rule 5 Draft The IL reinstatements should be self-explanatory. Each of those five pitchers could have a significant positive impact on the 2025 Marlins, although Pérez is expected to miss the first few months of the season while completing his Tommy John surgery rehab. In 2024, Alvarado was the hardest thrower in the Marlins organization. He performed great for Triple-A Jacksonville as a high-leverage reliever (2.79 ERA, 3.84 FIP and .195 BAA in 48.1 IP). Poor control will probably preclude him from MLB success, but what if a full spring training under the tutelage of a new pitching coach leads to a mechanical breakthrough that allows him to find the zone more consistently? Worth a shot. 7HOMOkv1DZksiKOX.mp4 De Los Santos and Serna are ranked No. 3 and No. 6, respectively, on the Fish On First Top 30. I also seriously contemplated protecting Dax Fulton (FOF #15 prospect) from the Rule 5. The tall left-hander missed most of 2023 and all of 2024 following elbow surgery, but he isn't that far removed from looking like a long-term starting rotation piece. There is some precedent for pitchers in his precise situation being Rule 5'd. All factors considered, I'm willing to bet that the other teams will pass on him. To accommodate the aforementioned players on the 40-man, here's who I would place on waivers: RHP Shaun Anderson RHP Lake Bachar RHP Mike Baumann UTIL David Hensley RHP Darren McCaughan C Jhonny Pereda RHP Michael Petersen RHP Sixto Sánchez LHP Josh Simpson Sixto Sánchez helped the Marlins to a 2020 postseason berth with 39 impressive innings. Derailed by shoulder issues, he has pitched a combined 37 ⅔ professional innings in the four seasons since then with severely diminished stuff. Despite his top prospect pedigree, it is irrational to expect anything from him moving forward. Simpson is the toughest cut from this group. He has posted great strikeout numbers throughout his minor league career and would have certainly debuted out of the Marlins bullpen this season if not for an elbow injury. However, the quality and command of his fastball was lousy coming back from the injury. While there is still hope for the lefty reliever, he doesn't currently merit a 40-man spot. As a 2019 draft pick, Simpson still has a year of organizational control remaining if he clears waivers, so he wouldn't be able to elect minor league free agency (all of the other players in this group can). Bachar was another close call. He made 10 appearances for the Marlins in September and only allowed earned runs in one of them. It was ultimately a decision between him and George Soriano, both right-handed relievers with four-seamer/slider/changeup arsenals. Soriano is four years younger and I like his upside more. We enter the meat of the offseason with this as the 40-man roster: Free agency RHP Spencer Turnbull (1 YR/$6M, 2026 club option) $5M in 2025 and $10M club option for 2026 ($1M buyout) LHP Matt Moore (1 YR/$2.5M) up to $2.5M in performance bonuses for games pitched OF Derek Hill (MiLB deal) 1B José Abreu (MiLB deal) LHP Patrick Corbin (MiLB deal) RHP Shintaro Fujinami (MiLB deal) C Will Banfield (MiLB deal) 491bf5c8-414397d6-b01818b2-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 In an alternate universe, the Los Angeles Dodgers get knocked out in the NLDS and Walker Buehler is amenable to signing a one-year, incentive-laden contract. However, in our reality, he thrived in the later rounds of the postseason to propel himself out of my price range. So I'm pivoting to Turnbull with the intent of using him as Miami's No. 5 starter. He was an April sensation for the 2024 Philadelphia Phillies before getting squeezed out of their veteran-laden rotation. Albeit in a tiny sample, his new sweeper was fantastic. Turnbull did not make another MLB appearance after suffering a right lat strain in late June, but he was fully recovered from the injury by season's end. He'll be 32 years old next season. The Marlins bullpen quietly performed well even after numerous trade deadline subtractions. Talented arms could still benefit from veteran guidance. Moore has pitched more MLB innings (1,142.2 IP) than every other member of Miami's projected 2025 bullpen combined, and he's only a year removed from pitching well as a high-leverage guy. He'd be an obvious July trade candidate. I'm going to reluctantly designate Derek Hill for assignment to make room for one of these free agents, but I anticipate him clearing waivers. Once he does, I will outbid the competition to bring him back by giving him the inside track to crack the Opening Day roster and a $900k salary if he does (significantly above the MLB minimum). If Abreu and Corbin actually have something left in the tank, awesome. Starting roles would be farfetched, but potentially they could contribute as a pinch-hitter and lefty relief specialist, respectively. If not, it will be valuable to have them in Jupiter anyway. Both come highly regarded as clubhouse leaders. Fujinami is another Alvarado type who lights up the radar gun. Merely throwing 60% of his pitches for strikes would be a win. As I feared, Banfield's offensive "breakout" in 2023 was an anomaly. His production with Triple-A Jacksonville this past season (73 wRC+) was much more aligned with his disappointing MiLB career norms. However, I believe in his defense and intangibles behind the plate. He's well-suited to be No. 3 on the 2025 catching depth chart. Trades Trade RHP Edward Cabrera to the New York Mets for INF Ronny Mauricio and a player to be named later Trade C Nick Fortes, OF Jacob Berry and LHP Anthony Veneziano to the Minnesota Twins for C Christian Vázquez and LHP Dasan Hill It is not reflected in his overall numbers (4.95 ERA, 4.68 FIP and .227 BAA in 96.1 IP), but Edward Cabrera took a baby step forward in 2024. The lone constant in Miami's starting rotation during the months of July, August and September, he "gave his team a chance to win" in 12 of those 15 starts. Cabrera threw more first-pitch strikes than ever before and gradually boosted his fastball usage (an adjustment I've spent several years clamoring for). That being said, I don't see a future where Cabrera becomes a consistent, impactful starter. He perennially misses significant chunks of the season due to injury. His high walk rate is exacerbated by bad individual defense. A potential conversion to relief work is intriguing, but I would rather part ways while there are other teams still dreaming on him "putting it all together" as a starter and willing to send back the appropriate compensation. The Mets and Marlins have been frequent trade partners in recent years despite occupying the same division. Each of New York's three most-used starters from this season just became free agents, which makes rotation depth the club's primary concern. Turning 24 in April, the switch-hitting Mauricio got his first taste of the majors in September 2023, slashing .248/.296/.347 with a 79 wRC+ in 108 plate appearances. He impressed with his power and throwing arm, but there is the risk that he'll chase outside the strike zone too often to reach base at a respectable clip. His durability is a concern—11 months removed from ACL surgery, Mauricio still has not resumed baseball activities. Originally developed as a shortstop, he gained some familiarity with second base, third base and left field when he was last healthy. 32202e88-f062a080-d53602a5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 The quality of the player to be named later is contingent on whether Cabrera is on the Mets Opening Day active roster. If he makes it, the Marlins get one of New York's selections from Day 3 of the 2024 MLB Draft; if another injury sidelines him, they get a Dominican Summer League lottery ticket. On the Marlins' side, Vidal Bruján is my Ronny Mauricio insurance. If Mauricio wows in spring training as both a hitter and versatile fielder, then Bruján—who is out of minor league options—would be a DFA candidate. Before arriving at the Mauricio idea, I tossed around a possible framework involving Jeff McNeil, prospects and cash. The intention would've been to use McNeil as Miami's primary designated hitter, occasional second baseman and main pinch-hitter on days when he isn't in the lineup. In the end, I don't think the Mets are desperate enough to unload the homegrown former All-Star who could still contribute to a playoff contender in a part-time capacity even as he declines. On the other hand, the Minnesota Twins are desperate to move money around. They finished fourth in the AL Central standings despite being arguably the most talented team in the division and their payroll is restricted during an ownership transition. My largest expenditure of the 2024-25 offseason will be absorbing the $10M owed to Vázquez in the final year of his contract. He and Fortes have been eerily similar players over the past two seasons. Fortes is under club control through 2028, but I'm fine forfeiting that for the more accomplished 34-year-old whose expiring contract allows for a smooth transition to Agustín Ramírez and Joe Mack as Miami's catchers of the future. The most precious asset involved in this five-player deal is LHP Dasan Hill. The 6'5" teenage Texan was selected with the 69th overall pick in the MLB Draft. Ranked as Minnesota's No. 18 prospect according to Twins Daily, Hill oozes projectability, though we've yet to see him pitch in a professional setting. Former Marlins first-rounder Jacob Berry recovered from a horrifying April/May slump and reached Triple-A. He's a skilled hitter, but I don't think that his other tools are good enough to sustain anything more than a replacement-level career. Let's assume the Twins are more bullish on him. Through 14 MLB appearances (all in relief), Veneziano has a 2.87 ERA, 3.24 FIP and .290 BAA. His left-handedness would help balance out the Twins' righty-heavy pitching staff. Contract extensions RHP Calvin Faucher (5 YR/$14.5M, 2030 club option) $1M in 2025, $2M in 2026, $3M in 2027, $4M in 2028, $4M in 2029 and $6M club option for 2030 ($500k buyout) It's challenging to identify extension candidates on this Marlins roster when so many of the players just began their major league careers or recently suffered injuries (or both). I am generally opposed to making long-term commitments to relievers, but Faucher is an exception. In 53 ⅔ innings at the big league level this season, Faucher did not allow a single home run. Prior to his September shoulder impingement, he was impressing in his audition to be Miami's closer. Atypical for a reliever, he uses four distinct pitches and recorded at least 10 strikeouts with each of them. Offering a $14.5M guarantee would be extremely tempting for somebody who was an afterthought at the time of his acquisition. The contract structure buys out all of his pre-arb and arbitration years and include an option for what would've been his first free agent year. From the team's perspective, I believe the timing is appropriate because Faucher could be Super Two-eligible in 2026. He'll get expensive quickly if he proves to be closer material; even if he falls short of that bar, it doesn't take much production to justify this pay day. How the pieces fit together Players that I acquired during the offseason are underlined and italicized. This group (plus the dead money owed to Avisaíl García) would combine for a payroll in the $85M range, significantly less than 2024's season-opening total. The projected starting rotation would be Alcantara, Luzardo, Weathers, Garrett and Turnbull, with Pérez and Robby Snelling vying for spots by July. Expect at least one of those veterans to be traded by the deadline. Come August, the Marlins could have a top-five farm system in baseball. I'm skeptical of the defensive alignment with Edwards at shortstop and Norby at third base, but they should have long leashes to get acclimated. There would be a lot of platooning in the outfield with Jesús Sánchez coming closest to everyday at-bats between left field and DH starts. Sánchez is another likely trade deadline departure. Even with a heavy reliance on young, inexperienced players late in the season, I think the Marlins would eclipse 70 wins. View full article

The Marlins are trying to pivot to Clayton McCullough to fill their vacancy after Albernaz suddenly withdrew his name from consideration, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. The search for the 17th manager in Marlins franchise history continues. With the Chicago White Sox officially announcing Will Venable's hire on Thursday morning, it was expected that the Fish would soon follow suit with Craig Albernaz. However, Albernaz has opted to remain as Cleveland Guardians bench coach for the 2025 season, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. And now Miami has to scramble for an alternative. Albernaz, who turned 42 on Wednesday, began coaching in 2015 after a nine-year playing career as a minor league catcher, eight of which were spent in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. Once retired as a player, Albernaz coached the Princeton Rays in the Appalachian League in 2015 and the Hudson Valley Renegades in the New York-Penn League in '16. His first taste as manager came in 2017 when he took over the Short-Season A Hudson Valley squad. The following season, he managed the Bowling Green Hot Rods in the Midwest League, where he earned the 2018 Midwest League Manager of the Year award. Following the 2019 season, he was hired by the San Francisco Giants as their bullpen and catching coach, where he served under now-Marlins assistant GM Gabe Kapler. Albernaz interviewed for managerial vacancies with the Giants and the Guardians following the 2023 season. Stephen Vogt beat Albernaz out for the Guardians job, but hired him onto his major league coaching staff. Albernaz was originally tabbed as Cleveland's field coordinator. He was elevated to bench coach in November when DeMarlo Hale departed to join the Toronto Blue Jays. The Guardians won the AL Central title this year and advanced to the ALCS. Throughout the search process, due to his pre-existing connections to Kapler and Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix, Albernaz appeared to be the most likely pick to replace outgoing manager Skip Schumaker. Craig Mish had reported on Monday that he and Venable were the two finalists for the job, though he backtracked on that to acknowledge the possibility of additional candidates. Clayton McCullough, fresh off winning a World Series title as first base coach of the Los Angeles Dodgers, looks to be Miami's initial fallback plan, per Passan. McCullough interviewed with the Marlins last week. Stay tuned for more updates... View full article