Ely Sussman

I gave some thought to that possibility earlier in the year. The complication is coming up with past players like him who've signed extensions. Hitters this early in their career with basically zero power don't get long-term deals, even if they do other things very well. It would be difficult for the two sides to find common ground on his value given the lack of precedent.

I often wonder about the impact those bad results have had on Sherman. He has trusted his baseball people with those investments and they've mostly made the team worse! Duvall might be his "best" example of spending millions on a player and getting something out of it. If there had been more success stories, Sherman might feel differently about where to set payroll.

I admit that during the offseason, Pipeline does a decent job with their list, but I don't respect the fact that they ignore them during the season itself. Causes a lot of confusion with how slow they are to make changes. Fun resource to see names from all 30 teams in one place along with other lists, but that's why I don't recommend taking their rankings seriously.

The unheralded Mendoza was extremely consistent throughout his age-20 season on his way to a shiny 2.32 ERA. Here's a closer look at what makes him unique. Each of the three prospects that the Miami Marlins picked up from the Texas Rangers in the Jake Burger trade are coming off good statistical seasons, none more so than left-hander Brayan Mendoza. Used primarily as a starter (24 G/19 GS), Mendoza posted a 2.32 ERA, 3.43 FIP and .230 BAA in 101 innings pitched. He got a brief taste (10.1 IP) of High-A competition at the end of the year, but he otherwise made all of his appearances at Low-A. Mendoza's earned run average obviously jumps off the page. That was the 11th-lowest mark in Minor League Baseball among all pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings. He did that as a 20-year-old, making him younger than any of the arms ahead of him. That was while taking on doubled the workload of his 2023 season (52.1 IP). Although Mendoza was rarely dominant, he also avoided blow-ups. He did not allow more than three runs in any outing. His worst statistical performance came on June 26 (highlighted below) and there were some extenuating circumstances. The early portion of that game was played through heavy rain. Immediately after Mendoza surrendered a three-run home run, the game went into a delay, ending his day after only 28 pitches. If we were to scratch that from his record, it would lower his ERA to 2.07. Mendoza utilized a four-pitch arsenal in 2024 and was similarly effective against right-handed and left-handed batters. That bodes well for his potential of remaining a starter long term. Shoutout to the Augusta GreenJackets television broadcast for the beautiful center field camera angle. Pitch velocity estimates are a composite of Mendoza's August 2 start at Augusta and June 19 start at Fredericksburg. Four-seam fastball (91-94 mph) V3lYdlpfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1YxVlZWZ0VEQndVQURsSUJBd0FBQkE4RkFGZ0JVMUVBVUZFQlVWRUJVd29HQmxZQQ==.mp4 Sweeper (79-83 mph) V3lYdlpfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1Z3RUhBUUJTQXdRQUNGUUxWQUFBVWdKU0FGZ0ZCVmdBQmdNQ1ZBVUdBRkpTQXdOWA==.mp4 Slider (85-88 mph) V3lYdlpfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JRQUVVUUFNVVZNQVdWUlJVd0FBVndRRkFGa0NWVmNBQVFZQ0FnY0hDQUVIQVFFRg== (1).mp4 Changeup (84-86 mph) V3lYdlpfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0J3WUNCZ0FEQjFNQVd3RlJWd0FBVUFVRkFBQldWMVFBVTF3QUJsRUZDRmRRQmxjRQ==.mp4 There was a significant gap between Mendoza's ERA and FIP, but don't attribute that only to good luck. He consistently induced ground balls last season to limit the damage on balls in play. Using the same 100-inning threshold as I did with ERA, his 52.3 GB% was 21st-highest in the minors. Also, controlling the running game is largely a pitcher skill. With the Venezuelan southpaw on the mound, the Wood Ducks caught runners on 12 of 26 stolen base attempts (46.2%); for all of their other pitchers combined, the caught-stealing rate was about half as high (23.7%). Mendoza's normal delivery is quick to plate, plus he's occasionally willing to slide-step to expedite the process even more. The Rangers were willing to include Mendoza in this trade because of his modest ceiling as a prospect. He's short by MLB pitcher standards at 6'0" with below-average velocity. His control stands out more than his command, meaning the quality of contact against him on pitches in the strike zone could spike against more advanced hitters. As undeniably impressive as his production was in 2024, most of those results came while repeating the level where he spent the 2023 season. All things considered, you can easily make the case that Mendoza deserves to be ranked among the Marlins' Top 30 prospects (he just missed cracking our most recent Fish On First Top 30 update). He's expected to begin his age-21 season in the High-A Beloit starting rotation. Best-case scenario, he gets promoted to Double-A Pensacola midway through the year and forces a tough decision from the club on whether or not to protect him from the 2025 Rule 5 Draft. View full article

The Marlins middle infielders were valuable enough last season as determined by wins above replacement to receive a share of MLB's pre-arbitration bonus pool. Miami Marlins second baseman Otto Lopez and shortstop Xavier Edwards got early Christmas presents from Major League Baseball. As confirmed by the Associated Press on Friday, they took home bonuses of $339,964 and $313,489, respectively, figures that represent approximately half of their base salaries from the 2024 season. These payouts came from the MLB pre-arbitration bonus pool. The $50 million pool was divided among 101 pre-arb players based on a combination of where they finished in end-of-season award voting and how much wins above replacement they accumulated. Both of Miami's bonus recipients were bright spots amid an 100-loss season. Claimed off waivers from the San Francisco Giants in April, Lopez led all Marlins position players in both the FanGraphs (2.5 fWAR) and Baseball-Reference (2.6 bWAR) versions of WAR, thanks in large part to his fielding prowess. After patiently waiting in Triple-A while Tim Anderson stunk it up at shortstop, Edwards (2.2 fWAR/2.0 bWAR) was the club's best all-around offensive player from July onward. 96f9fb7e-af644c3f-8e26a627-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Combining his bonus and major league salary, Spotrac estimates that Lopez made a cash total of $1,004,290 during this past major league season. Edwards made $918,145. Among the other pre-arb Marlins players, Ryan Weathers and Calvin Faucher came closest to qualifying for their own bonus pool payouts. Lopez and Edwards are still two years away from arbitration eligibility. Barring contract extensions from the Marlins, their salaries will be close to the league minimum in 2025 and 2026, but they'll continue to be eligible for bonuses like this in the meantime. View full article

Cubs have some good young bats to offer. Other teams will make offers too, but this might be the best fit when all is said and done.

The Chicago Cubs are the first team so far this MLB offseason to be credibly linked to Miami Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Friday that they're "showing interest" in trading for Luzardo while separately shopping for a third baseman. The Cubs have four of their starting rotation spots already accounted for with Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd (three of whom are also lefties). They just dealt 2024 first-round draft pick Cam Smith to the Houston Astros in the Kyle Tucker blockbuster, but still have sufficient farm system depth to make a competitive offer for Luzardo. Luzardo pitched one of the best games of his major league career when visiting Wrigley Field on August 7, 2022 (7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K). The Marlins and Cubs linked up on a couple tiny transactions earlier this year, with the Fish acquiring Ali Sánchez for cash considerations and claiming Jesús Tinoco off waivers. However, it's been nearly a full decade since they were partners on a substantial trade (Dan Haren for Ivan Piñeyro and Elliot Soto in 2015). View full rumor

In the aftermath of the Jake Burger trade, the Marlins' position player group has an astounding lack of experience and marketability. The foundation of a perennially competitive major league team must include great position players. How can you tell that the Miami Marlins are deep in the wilderness of a rebuild? They don't have a single candidate who you can confidently forecast to become one. On the pitching side, their outlook is more encouraging between the imminent return of Sandy Alcantara, the eventual return of Eury Pérez and the ascension of Thomas White, just to name a few. However, all across MLB, the impact of individual pitchers has been diminished in recent years. Between the frequency of their injuries and the proactive steps taken to prevent said injuries, their workloads have been reduced. It's no coincidence that each of the nine largest contracts in league history have gone to dudes who rake instead of arms who shove (though one unicorn on that list combines the best of both). Meanwhile, none of the Marlins' hitters are under guaranteed contracts beyond the 2025 season. Miami has traded away several extension-worthy players over the past year. Those who remain are frighteningly inconsistent and unestablished. Throughout much of the Bruce Sherman era, the Marlins have struggled to score runs. You've probably seen fans—out of frustration—deride them for fielding a "Triple-A lineup," but that characterization is especially on point right now. I published an updated Opening Day roster projection earlier this week sans Jake Burger. It includes a potential starting lineup that collectively has 38% more career plate appearances against Triple-A competition (6,515) than MLB competition (4,692). To help you digest that, here is a rundown of every position player on the Marlins 40-man roster. Many of them were tasked with repeating AAA at some point rather than quickly matriculating to The Show like great talents typically do. Six of them don't even have MLB experience yet. The two "veterans" of the group (Jesús Sánchez and Nick Fortes) have been below-average hitters by wRC+ during the course of their big league careers. Jesús Sánchez - 1,562 PA in MLB | 500 PA in AAA Nick Fortes - 932 MLB | 272 AAA Jonah Bride - 565 MLB | 731 AAA Vidal Bruján - 550 MLB | 1,016 AAA Derek Hill - 476 MLB | 941 AAA Otto Lopez - 445 MLB | 980 AAA Xavier Edwards - 387 MLB | 952 AAA Kyle Stowers - 340 MLB | 1,047 AAA Connor Norby - 194 MLB | 1,115 AAA Dane Myers - 178 MLB | 390 AAA Griffin Conine - 89 MLB | 528 AAA Jhonny Pereda - 40 MLB | 793 AAA Javier Sanoja - 36 MLB | 492 AAA Graham Pauley - 32 MLB | 321 AAA Deyvison De Los Santos - 0 MLB | 421 AAA Victor Mesa Jr. - 0 MLB | 355 AAA Agustin Ramírez - 0 MLB | 287 AAA Jared Serna - 0 MLB | 23 AAA Max Acosta - 0 MLB | 0 AAA Liam Hicks - 0 MLB | 0 AAA This does not mean that the Marlins are doomed to be shut out every single game. Their batting order was filled with nobodies during the post-trade deadline portion of 2024, yet the offense got better than it had been prior to the deadline. While Burger was their top offensive producer down the stretch, Edwards, Bride and Lopez were close behind. Norby and Conine had exciting flashes, too. It's just such a young unit with few accolades and so much to prove. Most fans (understandably) won't be giving them the benefit of the doubt or investing time and money to watch them. I sympathize with the Marlins' marketing department because it'll be tough to formulate a compelling sales pitch that doesn't revolve around opposing players or non-baseball attractions. The starting pitcher possibilities are alluring (health permitting), but that won't convert prospective customers into season ticket holders—recognizable everyday players move that needle. The Marlins front office still has a few months to fill out the roster with reputable role players. As currently constructed, though, it looks like this season is being devoted to maximizing Sherman's profits and 2026 draft position. View full article

I vividly remember your username! Great to see you again.

That is more an indictment of the Marlins than the draft system, in my opinion. The league has to properly incentivize athletes to play baseball professionally. The majority of early-round picks won't contribute enough to justify their bonuses, but the few who become steady big leaguers turn those into tremendously team-friendly deals.

After the Marlins do their due diligence, maybe they wind up feeling the same way. That's how you get a class like last year where they go significantly underslot in Round 1, except this time, their bonus pool will be several million bucks bigger in order to fill out the class with higher-upside picks.

I hope you're right because I'm not a believer in either of them. Would be pretty redundant to have Bruján and Simon both on the team together, but if the Bruján experiment was clearly over, they could have parted ways with him already. Shaping up instead to be a spring training battle of sorts.

With the start of spring training two months away, these Marlins players are best positioned to crack the initial 26-man active roster. The Miami Marlins leaned even more into their youth movement during the just-completed MLB Winter Meetings. They dealt their most established hitter, Jake Burger, and took a flier on Detroit Tigers prospect Liam Hicks in the Rule 5 Draft. Just like that, one of the Marlins' apparent Opening Day roster locks is out of the picture and they'll have to tweak their 2025 plans to accommodate a neophyte who is obligated to stick in the majors throughout the season (or else be offered back to the Tigers). As a periodic reminder, the MLB active roster consists of 26 players, typically 13 position players and 13 pitchers. Especially for a team in the Marlins' situation, these are not necessarily the 26 best players—the team has to account for factors like Hicks' Rule 5 restrictions and the number of minor league options each individual has left (for example, Vidal Bruján and Derek Hill are out of options). Kevin Barral shared his way-too-early projection in October. Here is Fish On First's first formal update since then, with more to come from myself and other staffers as we gradually approach the March 27 opener against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Disagree with any aspect of this projection? Feel free to comment with your own. Position Players Default starting lineup: C Nick Fortes, 1B Jonah Bride, 2B Otto Lopez, 3B Connor Norby, SS Xavier Edwards, LF Kyle Stowers, CF Dane Myers, RF Griffin Conine and DH Jesús Sánchez Bench: C Liam Hicks, UTIL Vidal Bruján, UTIL Ronny Simon and OF Derek Hill I was very tempted to make room for Agustín Ramírez. He's ready offensively and there is regular playing time available from the get-go. He could be Miami's primary designated hitter and second-string catcher, with Hicks relegated to third-string catcher and Bride's backup first baseman. However, Ramírez still has a lot to clean up behind the plate. Unless he shows up to camp as a vastly improved receiver and blocker, he could benefit from more Triple-A reps. Also on the outside looking in, Deyvison De Los Santos needs to make better swing decisions. As shiny as his 2024 minor league numbers look, calling him up would be throwing him to the wolves with his current hyper-aggressive approach. Javier Sanoja could provide value to the team with his versatility and excellent contact skills, but barring injuries or a Stowers demotion, he wouldn't be in the lineup consistently. Still only 22 years old, he ought to be playing every day in Jacksonville until there is a cleaner fit. Simon is the lone non-40-man player in my projection. Potential corresponding moves for him include designating Jhonny Pereda for assignment (assuming Hicks makes the club) and transferring Eury Pérez to the 60-day injured list. Pitchers Starting rotation: Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Ryan Weathers, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera Bullpen: Calvin Faucher, Andrew Nardi, Declan Cronin, Jesús Tinoco, Anthony Bender, Anthony Veneziano, Lake Bachar and Xzavion Curry If the Marlins stand pat on the starting pitching front (which is a big "if"), the rotation hierarchy is clear-cut for the early portion of the season while Eury Pérez rehabs from Tommy John surgery. The Triple-A rotation will include Adam Mazur, Robby Snelling, Valente Bellozo and minor league signing Robinson Piña. Max Meyer is a wild card. I urge folks not to overreact to his disappointing 2024 campaign. Most likely, he'll stay stretched out in Jacksonville as well, but he has the ability to earn a spot in the Miami's Opening Day bullpen if the Marlins want to utilize him that way. View full article

Today's news roundup also includes a bunch of other impactful MLB transactions from this past weekend. I've decided to temporarily make Offishial News a weekly series that runs every Monday from now through the start of spring training (when there will once again be articles every single weekday). And what a day to run a new edition in the aftermath of Sunday's four-player trade that sent Jesús Luzardo to the Phillies. 🔷 Since last spring training, a Luzardo trade has just been a matter of "when" rather than "if." The Marlins never seriously engaged in contract extension talks with the talented left-hander despite coming off a great 2023 season, and they were reportedly intent on flipping him for prospects prior to the 2024 trade deadline had he not suffered a back injury. Despite not having appeared in a game since June 16, the Cubs made an aggressive push for Luzardo earlier this month. The Phillies swooped in after that fell through. 🔷 It's the first Marlins/Phillies swap since the J.T. Realmuto blockbuster nearly six years earlier. At least for one season, Luzardo and Realmuto will get to be battery mates. 🔷 The Fish also parted with C/OF Paul McIntosh in the trade. You may recall that McIntosh mashed his way onto the back end of the FOF Top 30 list in the not-too-distant past. However, the Marlins have made it clear how they feel about him, acquiring Agustín Ramírez from the Yankees, selecting Liam Hicks in the Rule 5 Draft and even allowing Jhonny Pereda to cling onto their 40-man roster. Already 27 years old, McIntosh didn't have path to the majors with them in 2025. Wishing all the best to P-Mac. 🔷 The headliner in the Luzardo/McIntosh package is INF Starlyn Caba, who immediately becomes Miami's top position player prospect. Having just turned 19 years old, Caba is a plus runner and potentially elite defender at shortstop. Although he barely hit his own weight for Low-A Clearwater in 2024, he drew more walks than strikeouts. Expect Caba to spend the majority of next season repeating Low-A. 🔷 The Marlins are also buying low on OF Emaarion Boyd. The 21-year-old Mississippian is another speedster who had a .239/.316/.330 slash line (90 wRC+) at High-A. 🔷 Barring further offseason moves, the Marlins should have an intriguing competition for the final spot in their starting rotation, with Sandy Alcantara, Ryan Weathers, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera poised to take the other spots (health permitting). 🔷 Listen here to the instant reaction to the trade, featuring myself and several FOF staffers. 🔷 Peter Bendix said on Sunday that the 2025 Marlins major league coaching staff isn't quite ready to be announced, but we're seemingly nearing the finish line. Alon Leichman will be Miami's assistant pitching coach and assistant pitching director. 🔷 The Savannah Bananas return to loanDepot park from March 1-2 and have already announced that each of their two events have sold out (74,000 combined tickets). It could be a very, very long time before consecutive Marlins home games draw that kind of crowd. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, it was an extremely busy weekend. The Mets re-signed Sean Manaea (3-YR/$75M). The Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt (1-YR/$12.5M). Rangers and Joc Pedersen have reached an agreement (contract terms not yet known). In what amounts to a corresponding move, Texas dealt Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals in exchange for Robert Garcia. As a result, old friend Jake Burger is poised to play a lot of first base in 2025. The Guardians traded Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks for Slade Cecconi and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick, then filled their own 1B void by reuniting with Carlos Santana (1-YR/$12M). Wil Myers announced his retirement. One of the best players in baseball history, Rickey Henderson, died at the age of 65. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Miami's leading run producer last season and a well-respected clubhouse presence, Burger has been flipped to Texas for three minor leaguers. The Miami Marlins aren't leaving the Winter Meetings without making a splash. Infielder Jake Burger was traded to the Texas Rangers late Tuesday night, as first reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The full prospect package coming back to Miami consists of INF Echedry Vargas, INF Max Acosta and LHP Brayan Mendoza. The Marlins announced the deal on Wednesday morning. In parts of two seasons with the Marlins, Burger slashed .265/.315/.472 with 2.4 fWAR and a team-leading 38 home runs in 190 games. Burger's tenure was successful though streaky. He raked immediately upon joining the Fish in August 2023, and coming out of the 2024 MLB All-Star break, he went on an epic power binge that included 14 homers in 26 games. However, he was ineffective throughout the first half of this past season. His OPS didn't permanently crack .600 until late June and he became a defensive liability at third base (-5 DRS and -5 OAA there). Burger is still pre-arbitration-eligible, so there are no meaningful cost savings associated with this trade. He is under club control through 2028. His departure solidifies Jonah Bride's place on the Marlins Opening Day roster and could also be seen as a vote of confidence in prospect Deyvison De Los Santos whose offensive skill set closely resembles Burger's. Although the Marlins have internal options who have the potential to fill Burger's shoes, they lack his track record and innate leadership ability. Losing him further diminishes their already-minuscule 2025 playoff odds. A trade to Texas reunites Burger with former Marlins manager Skip Schumaker and bench coach Luis Urueta. Schumaker is serving as a senior advisor with the Rangers while Urueta has been hired as Bruce Bochy's bench coach. Echedry Vargas ranked 10th on the 2024 midseason update of Baseball America's Rangers Top 30 prospects list. Max Acosta and Brayan Mendoza were both unranked. MLB Pipeline has added all three to their Marlins Top 30 list, with Vargas ranked 16th, Acosta ranked 17th and Mendoza ranked 29th. Vargas spent his age-19 season in Low-A, slashing .276/.321/.545 with 14 home runs and 29 stolen bases in 97 games. He was being used primarily at shortstop. Acosta, 22, already has a full season of Double-A baseball under his belt. He also performed well in the Arizona Fall League this year, slashing .338/.413/.521 in 20 games. The Rangers selected him to their 40-man roster last month. bGJZMVJfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1ZRVUVVVlVHWDFBQVhBQUZYZ0FBQlZVRkFBQUVWVkFBVjF3Q0NRc01WQWNEVWxGUw==.mp4 Mendoza is coming off an especially impressive 2024 campaign. The 20-year-old lefty posted a 2.32 ERA across 101 innings at Low-A/High-A, including a 1.92 ERA from June onward. View full article

Reminiscing about Burger's sweet yet brief Marlins stint with highlights of his most majestic homers. View full video