Ely Sussman

With six games still to play, the Miami Marlins have already clinched something. During a down year for the National League as a whole, the Marlins have been a glaring exception. Will their rookie manager, Clayton McCullough, get any credit for the results he's produced with the league's cheapest and one of its least-experienced rosters? Entering 2025, McCullough's front office did not make a serious effort to reinforce a club that finished 62-100 in 2024. Last winter, the Marlins traded away Jesús Luzardo and Jake Burger for prospect packages, only offsetting their departures with minimal free agent signings and waiver claims. The short-term outlook was bleak even before injuries piled up in spring training—Jesús Sánchez, Connor Norby, Ryan Weathers, Edward Cabrera and Andrew Nardi all landed on the IL. Nearly two-thirds of the active players entering the season had never been on an Opening Day roster before. They dumped even more veterans prior to the July 31 trade deadline (Sánchez and Nick Fortes). And yet, the Marlins have added 14 wins (and counting). Their winning percentage has risen 104 points. They are the Senior Circuit's poster child for year-to-year improvement. The Chicago Cubs have made the NL's next-biggest leap, gaining five victories and 52 winning percentage points, and it took the ultimate win-now trade—acquiring pending free agent Kyle Tucker—and a player payroll nearly three times the size for them to take that step forward. For anybody who is unfamiliar, the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards are voted on by members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). Thirty writers from various U.S. markets vote in each league. It's an antiquated award at this point. When it was introduced four decades ago, managers had far more influence over roster construction and player usage; today, front offices are "very involved" in those aspects, making it impossible to know how much credit ought to go to the skipper. Unless you're a direct relative of a manager or an agent representing them, you probably don't care enough to campaign for a candidate. That being said, as long as this exercise continues, let's be consistent. The table below contains the last decade of Manager of the Year winners excluding 2020 and 2021, which were outliers due to COVID. These awards were earned over full-length seasons and preceded by full-length seasons. On average, the winners' teams improved by 16 wins from the prior year as shown in parentheses. McCullough fits right in—he'll be at plus-16 if the Marlins go 2-4 this week. Even if the Marlins win out and get to plus-20, their 82-80 record would be the worst for a Manager of the Year's team since Joe Girardi way back in 2006. And even if they win out, they might fall short of a postseason berth, which is usually disqualifying based on this award's recent history. But hey, it's been a highly unusual season in the National League. At the very least, I expect McCullough to place top three in the balloting.

There is a slight tear in Edward Cabrera's right UCL, but the 27-year-old is determined to pitch through it. The Miami Marlins are satisfied with how Cabrera has looked and how his elbow has responded over the past few weeks since being placed on the injured list, so he will be reinstated to start Tuesday's game against the Philadelphia Phillies. It figures to be a shorter outing than usual—Cabrera threw approximately 50 pitches during a simulated game last week and the Marlins only increase a starter's workload in increments of about 15 pitches at a time as they are building back up from an injury. Being cleared to come off the IL is obviously encouraging, but it's premature to declare victory over Cabrera's elbow sprain. Throwing at 100% intensity could exacerbate the physical symptoms, or maybe there is a tentativeness in his delivery that prevents him from consistently executing his pitches. Mapping out their rotation plans even further, Sandy Alcantara will make his final 2025 regular season appearance on Friday. Pushing him back far enough to pitch in front of Miami fans was very likely part of the calculus there. To gather even more information about Cabrera's elbow health, the Marlins could decide to start him again Sunday. Regardless, a decision on whether or not to undergo surgery won't be made until after the season ends. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost their regular season finale, 4-1. In what should be his last minor league rehab game, Griffin Conine went 0-for-2 with two walks. In nine total rehab games, Conine slashed .292/.514/.583 with two home runs and 11 walks. The Jumbo Shrimp will host the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders in the best-of-three International League Championship Series beginning on Tuesday. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 The Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets are each four games up on the Marlins in the race for the National League's third Wild Card spot with only six games remaining. The Marlins would also have to leapfrog the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants this week to secure a miraculous postseason berth. In all likelihood, it'll require a 6-0 week against the Phillies and Mets, stretching their overall winning streak to 12 games, which is unprecedented in franchise history. 🔷 A former Roberto Clemente Award nominee himself, Jeff Conine told MLB.com's Christina De Nicola about how proud he is of his son's off-the-field impact. As a reminder, you can vote for Griffin to win the award here. Voting closes on Sunday night. 🔷 Son Los Marlins highlighted the Marlins players who best embody their team's "comeback" spirit. 🔷 The Prediction Time leaderboard has been updated. Only two series left! Become a SuperSub and we'll keep track of your predictions all season long. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Cal Raleigh hit his 58th home run as the Seattle Mariners swept the Houston Astros. The Mariners have won 14 of their last 15 games. The Detroit Tigers continue to implode as they were swept by the Atlanta Braves and have now dropped nine of their last 10. Marlins podcast episodes

Clayton McCullough managed with an urgency to win on Saturday night and got the desired result. The Miami Marlins placed their most impactful offensive weapon atop the starting lineup, even with their usual leadoff hitter playing as well; the least-established arm in their rotation was kept on a short leash; and soon after taking a lead over the Texas Rangers, they deployed their best reliever and most athletic defenders. It still got extremely dicey at the end, but when the final out settled into Dane Myers' glove, the Marlins celebrated victory for the ninth time in their last 10 games. If Miami's late-September surge falls short, they will regret the numerous instances earlier in the season when the weakest links on the roster were put in positions to fail (and repeatedly did). It's refreshing to see competitiveness take priority over player evaluation at this point. Adam Mazur and Jack Leiter had comparably vanilla outings through four innings, and the contest was fittingly tied at 2-2. But even on the heels of playing 12 strenuous innings the night before, McCullough called upon his bullpen right there. Mazur had thrown only 63 pitches. On the other hand, the Texas lineup was about to flip over for the third time. The Rangers stuck with Leiter into the sixth inning. Troy Johnston and Connor Norby made them regret that decision with back-to-back home runs, which put the Fish in front, 4-2. p9p84v_1.mp4 While he did not directly factor into the game's run production, it's worth noting that leadoff hitter Jakob Marsee worked Leiter for 18 pitches across three plate appearances. This was the first time all year that Xavier Edwards (who batted third) started a game someplace other than the No. 1 spot. Cade Gibson picked up only the ninth win by a Marlins left-handed pitcher this season. He was helped out by a strike 'em out, throw 'em out double play that ended the bottom of the sixth inning. These 2025 Marlins have struggled to control the opposing running game more so than any other team in franchise history, but it's been a different story recently. Just three runners have even attempted to steal against the Fish over the last eight games, with only one of them being successful. Ronny Henriquez is wrapping up his breakout campaign by pitching as well as ever. For the 18th time in his last 19 appearances, he didn't allow any earned runs. On Saturday, he was brought in with two outs in the seventh and the tying run at the plate. After cleaning up that mess, he stayed in to strike out the side in the eighth. Calvin Faucher's 15th save of the season may have been his worst in terms of pitch execution. Faucher surrendered a leadoff homer to catcher Kyle Higashioka and very nearly a walk-off homer to Joc Pederson, which got just far enough inside that Pederson pulled it 399 feet foul down the right field line. Only 13 of the right-hander's 28 pitches landed for strikes, but to his credit, the victory was sealed on a 99 mph fastball that he dotted on the outside corner for a harmless flyout. Entering the final eight days of regular season baseball, Miami's "elimination number" stays at three—that is the combination of Marlins wins and Mets losses needed to officially take them out of the National League Wild Card race. With the Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants boasting better records as well, the Marlins' chances of actually making it to October are a mere fraction of one percent. Regardless, they are sprinting to the finish line in impressive fashion. The Marlins, notoriously, have never had a winning streak of double-digit games, which means by going 9-1 lately, they have matched the franchise's best-ever 10-game span. Eury Pérez is the Marlins' probable starter for the series finale at Globe Life Field. Sunday's first pitch will be at 2:35 p.m. ET.

If you were confused at the time of the trade about why the Miami Marlins were parting with Jesús Sánchez, it should be much easier to comprehend at this point. Three different Marlins outfielders drove in runs during Thursday's win, none of whom are even ensured a spot on the 2026 Opening Day roster. That just speaks how much depth they have. Jakob Marsee will be the club's starting center fielder moving forward and Kyle Stowers will man one of the corner spots. Figuring out how to allocate the rest of the outfield playing time is a wonderful problem to have. The run producers alluded to above were Heriberto Hernández, Troy Johnston and Dane Myers. Johnston was replaced by Joey Wiemer late in the game for defensive purposes, and Wiemer—albeit in a tiny sample—has Miami's top hard-hit rate this season. Meanwhile, down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won. Kemp Alderman crushed a 471-foot home run (the second time he's done so this season). Victor Mesa Jr. also homered—he's slashing .312/.372/.539 for the Jumbo Shrimp. Griffin Conine continued his rehab assignment and Derek Hill began one of his own. Even recent trade acquisition Matthew Etzel has quietly held his own since arriving in Jacksonville, all but securing a non-roster invite to spring training. The Marlins had the ideal outfield scenario a decade ago, with three high-end starters simultaneously entering their primes. Having two of those ain't too shabby when there are this many talented players in the mix who are also under cheap club control. There are, in my opinion, too many outfielders at similar stages of their careers, likely culminating in a substantial trade over the offseason that bolsters another area of the organization. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Sandy Alcantara seized sole possession of fourth place on the all-time Marlins wins list, passing Brad Penny. If everybody in the current Marlins rotation continues making their regularly scheduled starts, Alcantara will take the mound only one more time in 2025. However, the team does have the flexibility to pitch him next Tuesday and next Sunday (Game 162) if interested in doing so. 🔷 Baseball America includes the Marlins among nine MLB teams that had particularly strong 2025 international signing classes, highlighting Andrew Salas, Kevin Defrank, Pedro Montero, Adriano Marrero, Adrian Peña and Luis Arana. BA also published a longer feature on Miami's player development ethos, which involves being fully transparent with prospects about where they need improve to progress through the farm system. 🔷 Marlins bullpen coach Brandon Mann spoke with David Laurila of FanGraphs about the unique characteristics of changeups thrown by the different pitchers on his staff. 🔷 On this day in 1995, Greg Colbrunn put the Marlins ahead for good with a clutch home run against the rival Phillies. 🔷 The Prediction Time leaderboard has been updated. Only three series left! Become a SuperSub and we'll keep track of your predictions all season long. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Clayton Kershaw announced that he will retire following the 2025 postseason. The future Hall of Famer makes his final regular season appearance at Dodger Stadium tonight. In the fight for the third National League Wild Card spot, the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds won, while the San Francisco Giants lost. The Mets hold a two-game lead over the Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks—and a six-game lead over the Marlins. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins visit the Texas Rangers (probable starters RHP Janson Junk and RHP Tyler Mahle). This is only the second time that the Fish have ever visited Globe Life Field—they were swept by the Rangers during a three-game series in 2023. The Marlins have a 42.2% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 8:05 p.m. ET. Marlins podcast episodes

The Miami Marlins farm system was universally ranked among Major League Baseball's worst at the end of the 2023 season when Peter Bendix took over the franchise's baseball operations. Before Bendix's hiring was even finalized, the Marlins parted ways with DJ Svihlik, who had orchestrated their previous five MLB Draft classes as director of amateur scouting. According to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, principal owner Bruce Sherman "wanted to replace Svihlik because Marlins' draft hasn't produced much with position players." Two years later, it remains true that those players have made practically zero impact at the major league level. The only Miami amateur draftees to swing a bat for the 2025 Marlins have been Nick Fortes and Troy Johnston, who have combined for less than one win above replacement. It's been a similar story on the mound, with four pitchers drafted and developed by the organization combining for a 4.91 ERA in 144 ⅔ innings. However, the seeds that Svihlik planted are poised to bear much more fruit in 2026—on both sides of the ball. Although it has become increasingly common around the sport for top prospects to be fast-tracked through the minor leagues, let this serve as a reminder that in the vast majority of cases, several years of patience are needed to render a verdict on a homegrown player. Catcher Joe Mack and outfielder Kemp Alderman were drafted in 2021 and 2023, respectively. They both performed very poorly at the plate during the summer of '23, so much so that they briefly slipped out of the Fish On First Top 30 the following year. They have since made the proper mechanical and approach adjustments. With the annual Marlins minor league awards presentation looming next week, 2025 Player of the Year honors are all but certain to go to one of them. Combining elite defense with above-average power, Mack has blossomed into the best all-around catching prospect that the Marlins have had in at least a decade (J.T. Realmuto), if not three decades (Charles Johnson). He is currently ranked 42nd on Baseball America's Top 100 list and destined to move up a handful of spots in October once the list updates to account for players who recently graduated from prospect eligibility. Alderman spent most of the season starring for Double-A Pensacola, and he hasn't slowed down one bit since being promoted to Jacksonville. He enters Wednesday with a .291/.322/.673 slash line and 154 wRC+ in 14 Jumbo Shrimp games. Alderman's 57.9 HardHit% against Triple-A competition is a top-10 mark among all players with at least 50 AAA plate appearances, edging out the likes of Roman Anthony (57.6%), Samuel Basallo (57.4%) and Nick Kurtz (56.7%). In 2023, the Marlins made a big bet on a prep left-hander from a cold-weather state and it has paid off handsomely. Thomas White was already a consensus Top 100 talent entering 2025; once next spring training rolls around, he may be the consensus No. 1 lefty in the minors. With one regular season start still to come, White has posted a 2.33 ERA and 38.5% strikeout rate in 85 innings pitched. Karson Milbrandt, Miami's third-rounder in 2022, just had his most dominant half-season as a pro. It's getting easier to forecast him as an eventual major leaguer. The most glaring Marlins draft gaffe during Svihlik's tenure was selecting Jacob Berry with the sixth overall pick in 2022. How could they have possibly gone in that direction when Brooks Lee—another switch-hitting collegiate star, but one with actual defensive aptitude at a premium position—would've signed for comparable money? What an unforced error...right? Lee was called up by the Minnesota Twins less than two years after the draft and has accrued 179 MLB games since then. It's been empty calories, though. He is slashing .233/.282/.360 with 18 home runs and six stolen bases, netting out at precisely 0.0 fWAR—hey, that's tied with Berry! A couple other notables: - Right-hander Josh White (fifth round, 2022) was arguably the best relief pitcher in Minor League Baseball this year. No reliever at any MiLB level with a minimum of 40 innings bested his 1.53 FIP, and White did most of that work at Triple-A. He should be a high-leverage weapon for the 2026 Fish. - Ryan Ignoffo (20th round, 2023) was the very last draft pick of the Svihlik era. By wRC+, he's been the most productive hitter in the Marlins system during that three-year span while also learning how to catch. Ignoffo likely would have finished this season in Jacksonville if not for a hamstring injury. On the other hand, plenty of draftees from those years have bombed out of affiliated ball. Mack appears to be the only hope for the class of 2021. It has been a rocky road for Dax Fulton (second round, 2020) coming back from his second career Tommy John surgery to the point that his 40-man roster spot may be in jeopardy during this upcoming offseason. Noble Meyer's stock has gradually faded ever since he was picked atop the 2023 draft. Earlier this year, new Marlins director of amateur scouting Frankie Piliere described to Fish On First the harmonious working relationship that he has with Bendix. If Sherman hadn't already dismissed Svihlik, there's a good chance that Bendix would have reached the same decision to handpick his own guy for the position. Overall, though, the general perception that Bendix inherited a depleted talent pipeline was an exaggeration. He deserves a lot of credit for revamping the Marlins' approach to player development, leveraging technology in ways that the old front office did not. That can only take you so far. You inevitably need players with loud tools and strong work ethics, and the Marlins had those in house when Bendix showed up.