How could you not vote Clayton McCullough for NL Manager of the Year?

With six games still to play, the Miami Marlins have already clinched something. During a down year for the National League as a whole, the Marlins have been a glaring exception. Will their rookie manager, Clayton McCullough, get any credit for the results he's produced with the league's cheapest and one of its least-experienced rosters?

Entering 2025, McCullough's front office did not make a serious effort to reinforce a club that finished 62-100 in 2024. Last winter, the Marlins traded away Jesús Luzardo and Jake Burger for prospect packages, only offsetting their departures with minimal free agent signings and waiver claims. The short-term outlook was bleak even before injuries piled up in spring training—Jesús Sánchez, Connor Norby, Ryan Weathers, Edward Cabrera and Andrew Nardi all landed on the IL. Nearly two-thirds of the active players entering the season had never been on an Opening Day roster before. They dumped even more veterans prior to the July 31 trade deadline (Sánchez and Nick Fortes).

And yet, the Marlins have added 14 wins (and counting). Their winning percentage has risen 104 points. They are the Senior Circuit's poster child for year-to-year improvement. The Chicago Cubs have made the NL's next-biggest leap, gaining five victories and 52 winning percentage points, and it took the ultimate win-now trade—acquiring pending free agent Kyle Tucker—and a player payroll nearly three times the size for them to take that step forward.

For anybody who is unfamiliar, the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards are voted on by members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). Thirty writers from various U.S. markets vote in each league.

It's an antiquated award at this point. When it was introduced four decades ago, managers had far more influence over roster construction and player usage; today, front offices are "very involved" in those aspects, making it impossible to know how much credit ought to go to the skipper. Unless you're a direct relative of a manager or an agent representing them, you probably don't care enough to campaign for a candidate.

That being said, as long as this exercise continues, let's be consistent.

The table below contains the last decade of Manager of the Year winners excluding 2020 and 2021, which were outliers due to COVID. These awards were earned over full-length seasons and preceded by full-length seasons. On average, the winners' teams improved by 16 wins from the prior year as shown in parentheses. McCullough fits right in—he'll be at plus-16 if the Marlins go 2-4 this week.

Even if the Marlins win out and get to plus-20, their 82-80 record would be the worst for a Manager of the Year's team since Joe Girardi way back in 2006. And even if they win out, they might fall short of a postseason berth, which is usually disqualifying based on this award's recent history.

But hey, it's been a highly unusual season in the National League. At the very least, I expect McCullough to place top three in the balloting.