Ely Sussman

Pending physical, Josh Naylor is headed back to the Seattle Mariners on a five-year deal, per numerous reports on Sunday night. He'll be getting $90-100 million guaranteed. It never seemed plausible that the former Miami Marlins top draft pick would reunite with his original organization, but the news is nonetheless notable around these parts because of how it may impact other first basemen on the market. Ryan O'Hearn, for example, was a very comparable hitter to Naylor in 2025, albeit with far less impact as a baserunner. O'Hearn, 32, isn't a candidate for a long-term contract, but his representatives figure to be aiming for an annual average value in the same neighborhood as Naylor's $18M-20M. There are also trade market ramifications. The Mariners have the high-end prospects—seven of them included on Just Baseball's new MLB Top 100 list—worthy of headlining a package for practically any controllable big leaguer who might be available. Now, Miami won't have to worry about those assets being used to drive up the price on potential first base solutions like Alec Burleson (St. Louis Cardinals) and Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics). On Sunday in winter ball, Jared Serna (Mexico) went 2-for-4. His ninth triple established a new all-time Mexican Pacific Winter League single-season record. In addition to Serna, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic), Chris Arroyo (Puerto Rico) and Eric Rataczak (Australia) are still actively playing internationally, as shown in our Fish On First tracker. SuperSub ForeverMarlins has notes on every Marlin who participated in the just-completed Arizona Fall League. Only 129 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 Marlins catching coach Joe Singley has been hired by the Baltimore Orioles, as first reported by The Baltimore Banner's Andy Kostka, where he'll be working double duty as both their catching coach and field coordinator. 🔷 Kevin Barral and Sean McCormack combined to select 10 notable minor league free agents who they'd like to see the Marlins target. 🔷 77.8% of Marlins fans who participated in this poll expect the club to spend more in free agency this offseason than they've done on average during Bruce Sherman's ownership tenure. 🔷 DYM explains why he is optimistic about Marlins prospects Chris Arroyo, Colby Martin, Aiden May, Julio Mendez and Andrés Valor having breakout seasons in 2026. 🔷 Congratulations to Cloie and Braxton Garrett, who got married on Saturday. Former Marlins teammates Trevor Rogers and Nick Fortes were among the guests in attendance at the wedding. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Kyle Hendricks announced his retirement. A soft-tossing right-hander out of Dartmouth, Hendricks spent 11 of his 12 MLB seasons with the Chicago Cubs. In 2016, he led the National League in ERA, finished third in NL Cy Young Award voting and helped the Cubs snap their 108-year championship drought. View full article

Caba was the clearest winner of the bunch with the context that he had never played above Jupiter before. Big gap in age and experience between he and most of the opposing pitchers, yet consistent production (reached base safely in every game he played). Defense continued to look terrific, too. Hoping he starts off 2026 in High-A.

On Thursday in fall/winter ball, Fenwick Trimble went 0-for-3 with a walk. Jack Sellinger pitched two scoreless innings. Holt Jones allowed a walk-off single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. The Mesa Solar Sox lost, 4-3, and were eliminated from the Arizona Fall League playoffs. I'll have a detailed summary this weekend of how all Miami Marlins players fared in the AFL. Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 1-for-4. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 0-for-3 with a walk. Only 132 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 I detailed why Joe Mack is a lock and Josh White is a near-lock to be selected to Miami's 40-roster on Tuesday. 🔷 Thursday was the first day of the inaugural MLB Open, a golf tournament featuring pairs of current/former players representing each franchise. Jakob Marsee and Gary Sheffield are competing on the Marlins' behalf. The tournament concludes today. 🔷 For the second straight year, members of the latest Marlins MLB Draft class have traveled to the Dominican Republic to take part in a first-year player camp where they will train alongside the organization's Latin American players. 🔷 Just Baseball's updated Top 100 prospects list includes Thomas White (18th), Joe Mack (26th), Robby Snelling (30th) and Aiva Arquette (55th). White is now universally ranked among MLB's top 25 prospects, becoming the first Marlin since Eury Pérez to be so highly regarded. 🔷 Continuing their series of World Baseball Classic-inspired national team rosters, Son Los Marlins constructed the best possible Dominican and Puerto Rican teams comprised of former Fish. Finding adequate pitching with PR roots proved difficult. 🔷 Congratulations to former Marlins radio broadcaster Glenn Geffner, who will be teaching at the University of Florida during the Spring 2026 semester (h/t Isaac Edelman). After several years as an adjunct professor at Florida Atlantic University, Geffner is bringing his experience to UF for a course on sports play-by-play. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Aaron Judge (AL) and Shohei Ohtani (NL) won their respective league's MVP awards. Tarik Skubal (AL) and Paul Skenes (NL) won their respective league's Cy Young awards. Nick Kurtz (AL) and Drake Baldwin (NL) won their respective league's Rookie of the Year awards. Stephen Vogt (AL) and Pat Murphy (NL) won their respective league's Manager of the Year awards. Cal Raleigh, Corbin Carroll and Pete Crow-Armstrong were all announced as members of Team USA for the 2026 WBC. San Diego Padres ownership announced that they are exploring a potential sale of the franchise. View full article

The last thing I expected to see this offseason was the Miami Marlins spending money on an old, left-handed-hitting outfielder. Although we are still many steps away from that coming to fruition, Mike Yastrzemski is "one possibility for them," Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports. Yastrzemski has been a consistently average-to-very-good player ever since he debuted in the majors in 2019. This past season was on track to be arguably the worst of his career, but a deadline deal sending Yaz to the Kansas City Royals rejuvenated his bat. In 146 total games in 2025, he slashed .233/.333/.403 with 17 home runs and seven stolen bases, accumulating 2.4 fWAR. He turned 35 in August. As Morosi noted in his report, Marlins general manager Gabe Kapler was the San Francisco Giants manager from 2020-2023. Yastrzemski was on the team throughout Kapler's tenure. It would still be a peculiar roster fit and use of resources. All-Star Kyle Stowers and standout rookie Jakob Marsee—both of whom also hit from the left side—are projected to be everyday starters for the Marlins. Griffin Conine and Heriberto Hernández could theoretically platoon to adequately fill the remaining corner outfield spot. Yastrzemski has generally rated well defensively, but his glove wouldn't be a clear upgrade over any of those names, particularly at this stage of his career. This rumor gets more confusing if the Marlins are contemplating a multi-year commitment because one of the best bats in their farm system, outfielder Kemp Alderman, is poised to debut at some point in 2026. Starting Yastrzemski primarily as Miami's designated hitter would add some value. However, that implies Agustín Ramírez will continue catching on a regular basis, and his struggles there would negate a lot of the offensive boost. Maybe the Marlins intend to convert somebody to first base? That is their most glaring hole entering 2026. Yaz has no professional experience at the position, for what it's worth. View full rumor

It's the eve of the 2025 Rule 5 draft protection deadline. The Miami Marlins have until 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday to decide which of their Rule 5-eligible prospects to select to their 40-man roster. Joe Mack is in a tier of his own—selecting his contract has been an inevitability for months. I placed Josh White in his own tier right below Mack because although his performance and quality of stuff should also make him a no-brainer, it's especially tricky to evaluate and appraise relief-only prospects. The lone resident of the third tier is fellow right-handed reliever William Kempner. In his first season with the Marlins organization, Kempner climbed from High-A to Triple-A, posting a 2.26 ERA across 67 ⅔ innings pitched while striking out one-third of opposing batters. He allowed only two home runs. The antithesis of White, who has an extreme over-the-top delivery, Kempner practically throws sidearm. It's a helpless feeling for righty batters who have to guess whether they're getting a sinker that averages 18 inches of armside run or a slider breaking 14 inches in the opposite direction, as illustrated below in a matchup against former major leaguer Corey Julks: When facing lefties, the 24-year-old leans heavily on his four-seam fastball, which averaged 94.9 mph in his Triple-A appearances and topped out at 98.3 mph. On the concerning side, Kempner's control eroded as the level of competition increased: 9.0 BB% and 3 HBP at High-A (111 batters faced) 15.6 BB% and 2 HBP at Double-A (96 batters faced) 19.7 BB% and 3 HBP at Triple-A (76 batters faced) Kempner was sidelined for the entire 2024 minor league season while recovering from foot surgery. That's been his only significant injury absence dating back to the beginning of his collegiate career. If we assume both Mack and White are being protected, that means protecting Kempner would require a corresponding 40-man roster move. I have a hunch we'd see Zach Brzykcy—claimed from the Washington Nationals earlier this month—designated for assignment with the intent of passing him through waivers and outrighting him to the minors. That's precisely how the Marlins handled Christian Roa at this stage of the 2024-25 offseason, for what it's worth. Another possibility would be giving Andrew Nardi his pink slip a few days in advance of Friday's tender deadline. Upon closer inspection, I'm personally not as high on Kempner as I was when crafting my Marlins offseason blueprint. I still recommend that the club select him to the 40-man, but it would be unreasonable to count on him pitching meaningful MLB innings in 2026. Even if he initially succeeds, I wonder how long that would last when big leaguers have the technology to take pregame practice swings against his unconventional release point. The key question is whether the Marlins have the ambition and resources to add multiple experienced arms to their bullpen this winter. It'd be far easier to stomach likely losing Kempner in the Rule 5 if it's part of the process to make room for trustworthy veterans. View full article

We know that Joe Mack will be protected by the Miami Marlins prior to Tuesday's deadline for Rule 5 draft-eligible players. Nobody else in the organization should be considered a lock to receive the same treatment, but right-hander Josh White checks almost every box that a relief pitcher can. A fifth-round pick out of UC Berkeley in 2022, White has gradually gotten better and better and better. 2022 minor league stats (Rookie ball/Low-A): 6.55 ERA and 14.0 K-BB% in 11.0 IP 2023 MiLB stats (Low-A/High-A): 3.46 ERA and 11.2 K-BB% in 65.0 IP 2024 MiLB stats (High-A/Double-A): 3.02 ERA and 21.9 K-BB% in 59.2 IP 2025 MiLB stats (Double-A/Triple-A): 1.86 ERA and 32.1 K-BB% in 67.2 IP And those are only regular season stats—the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp won the Triple-A National Championship this year with the help of White's three scoreless innings in the playoffs. At various points during his professional career, White has struggled with his control and missing bats against left-handed opponents. In 2025, however, there were no holes in his game, as illustrated by Prospect Savant. White worked himself into favorable counts, induced chases outside the strike zone at an elite rate and rarely got barreled even when allowing contact. The 24-year-old dominated in all situations and was remarkably consistent—he recorded strikeouts in 42 of 45 appearances, and even on his worst days, he never allowed more than two runs. At 93.8 mph, White's four-seam fastball velocity is a couple ticks below the average for MLB righty relievers. He compensates for that with an outlier, over-the-top arm angle that would be higher than any other Marlins pitcher. About three-quarters of White's strikeouts in 2025 came via his slider. Due to his release point and the difficulty that batters have distinguishing it from his fastball, it was an ideal putaway pitch. According to the Marlins' propriety Stuff+ model, this slider was among the 20 best individual pitch types at any level of the organization. The Rule 5 draft was made for guys just like White who have demonstrated that they can pile up whiffs in the upper minors. Over the past three years, 80% of all selections during the draft's major league phase were pitchers, and most of them were deemed worthy of a pick despite being less effective and/or less durable than White. He has not been placed on the injured list since turning pro. I do not want to inflate expectations for Fish On First's No. 21 prospect. The correlation between MiLB reliever stats and MLB reliever stats isn't particularly strong. Also, big leaguers equipped with the most advanced technology and most experienced scouts may be able to quickly adjust to White's idiosyncrasies. He ought to get his feet wet in low-leverage situations and earn his manager's trust from there, just like a typical first-time call-up. But that's getting ahead of ourselves. The decision facing the Marlins next week is simply whether or not Josh White merits a 40-man roster spot. On a team with two current 40-man openings and the likes of Zach Brzykcy and Josh Simpson taking up space, White absolutely belongs. View full article

During the GM Meetings in Las Vegas, Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix speaks with MLB Network's Brian Kenny about Gabe Kapler's promotion, Sandy Alcantara's future, Kyle Stowers' breakout and more. View full video

In his latest USA Today column, MLB insider Bob Nightengale insists that the Miami Marlins have modified their stance regarding veteran right-hander Sandy Alcantara. "The Marlins never got the offer they wanted to move their former Cy Young winner," Nightengale writes referring to trade talks that took place during the 2025 season, "but this winter, are set to accept the best offer they receive, believing now is the time." Nightengale continued by noting that Alcantara's salary will be a team-high $17.3 million in 2026 and that his contract includes a $21 million club option for the 2027 season, as if this would be a financially motivated trade. But that's preposterous—the Marlins carried the league's lowest payroll this past year and they're currently projected to do so again. Miami's front office is actually weighing whether Alcantara's overall mediocrity coming off Tommy John surgery (5.36 ERA in 174.2 IP) is indicative of how he'll perform moving forward, or if his substantial improvement during the second half of the season is more relevant. Also, the Fish must factor in the potential that top pitching prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling have to fill the 30-year-old's shoes. Snelling, in particular, should be making his major league debut by next June, if not sooner. The Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros and New York Yankees were among the teams that contacted the Marlins about Alcantara in the days leading up to the 2025 deadline. Edward Cabrera "has never had more trade value than now," Nightengale adds in the same column. Cabrera overcame a late-season elbow injury scare to end his age-27 campaign on a high note. He is two and a half years younger than Alcantara and considerably cheaper (projected for $3.7 million in 2026). View full rumor

Last week, the Miami Marlins parted ways with former international amateur free agent signings George Soriano (2015), Luis Palacios (2016) and Dalvy Rosario (2016). The vast majority of you reading this are familiar with Soriano, who spent parts of three seasons in the Marlins bullpen. Palacios and Rosario both got tastes of the Triple-A level, but their progress stalled there due to a lack of velocity and hit tool, respectively. And then there were two. The only players acquired by the Marlins during Jeffrey Loria's ownership tenure who remain with the organization today are Edward Cabrera (2015 int'l signing) and Braxton Garrett (2016 draft pick). Despite obvious stylistic differences, their MLB production has been remarkably comparable—4.07 ERA in 431 ⅔ innings pitched for Cabrera and 4.03 ERA in 326 ⅓ innings pitched for Garrett. Neither are safe bets to stick with the Marlins for the start of the 2026 season as the front office contemplates potential trades. They may look to "sell high" on Cabrera coming off the best campaign of his career, or cut their losses with Garrett if they don't trust him to vigorously rebound from his second career Tommy John surgery. Both Cabrera and Garrett are entering their second year of arbitration eligibility with club control that extends through 2028. On Sunday in fall/winter ball, Karson Milbrandt pitched a scoreless inning as the National League starter for the AFL Fall Stars Game. Starlyn Caba went 1-for-2. The American League won, 5-4. Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 0-for-3 with a walk. Maximo Acosta (Venezuela) went 3-for-3 with his fifth home run of the season. Through 21 games, Acosta has a slash line of .345/.417/.571 to go along with eight stolen bases. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 1-for-4 and scored the only run of the game. Serna played left field, the fifth different position he has started at during this winter ball season. Chris Arroyo (Puerto Rico) hit a two-run homer to propel Leones de Ponce to victory. Arroyo continues to make all of his starts in right field. Only 136 days until Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 M.J.S created his own Marlins offseason blueprint in a similar format to my own. Perhaps the most polarizing move? Trading Edward Cabrera and Calvin Faucher to the New York Yankees for Ben Rice. 🔷 Robby Snelling reflected on his awesome 2025 season, which included winning Minor League Baseball's Gold Glove Award for best defensive pitcher (via Christina De Nicola, MLB.com). 🔷 Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium posted more details about the new Jupiter Medical Center Champions Club that's scheduled to open for spring training. Tickets for the field-level "Hot Corner" start at $30, while the upper-level club is a members-only area starting at $85 per ticket. 🔷 Inspired by next year's World Baseball Classic, Son Los Marlins constructed "Marlins Team USA," featuring 18 of the best American players to ever suit up for the Fish. 🔷 In his 2025 season takeaways, Cristian Crespo of Just Baseball wrote about the Marlins' surplus of starting rotation candidates and the need for an additional bat in the lineup. 🔷 Baseball America's Jacob Rudner ranked his top 10 Marlins prospects entering 2026. The list has a lot in common with our own Fish On First rankings, with the exception of outfielder Brandon Compton (#8), who doesn't even crack the FOF Top 30. "The Marlins bet on Compton’s power when they selected him in the second round," Rudner wrote. "For him to meet those expectations, continued refinement of his approach will be key." 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz were indicted on charges that they intentionally threw balls in certain counts to win prop bets. They face up to 65 years in prison if convicted on all charges. Regardless of how the legal process plays out, it seems inevitable that they'll receive lifetime bans from MLB. Japanese power hitter Munetaka Murakami was officially posted by the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, opening a 45-day negotiating window with MLB teams. View full article

Marlins prospect Karson Milbrandt pitched a scoreless bottom of the first inning in Sunday's AFL Fall Stars Game. His fastball velocity peaked at 99.0 mph. View full video

Next Tuesday is the 2025 Rule 5 draft protection deadline. In my career covering the Miami Marlins, there has never been a more obvious candidate to be protected than Joe Mack. That isn't to say that Mack's development journey has gone perfectly—if that were the case, he would already be in the major leagues. The 2021 MLB Draft pick was sidelined for the majority of the 2022 campaign due to hamstring injuries, then didn't hit a lick the following year despite being fully available (.218/.295/.287 slash line in 120 games at High-A). He briefly slipped off the Fish On First Top 30 prospects list during the 2023-24 offseason. Some highly regarded amateurs never recover from that kind of early-career adversity. Just look at the players selected by the Fish with top-50 overall picks in the 2018, 2019 and 2020 drafts (Mack was the 31st overall pick in his class). As a prep prospect who signed for $2.5 million, Mack was most comparable to Dax Fulton and Nasim Nuñez, both of whom were true borderline cases entering their respective Rule 5 deadlines. Drafted by Marlins with Top-50 Overall Picks, 2018-2020 Name Pick # Draft Year Rule 5 Year Protected? Max Meyer 3 2020 2023 Yes JJ Bleday 4 2019 2022 Yes Connor Scott 13 2018 2022 No Kameron Misner 35 2019 2022 No Dax Fulton 40 2020 2024 Yes Nasim Nuñez 46 2019 2023 No However, Mack sprung himself to prominence by the midpoint of the 2024 season. He hit 10 home runs during the month of June alone while being a 21-year-old at Double-A, and paired that power with MiLB Gold Glove Award-worthy defense behind the plate. It was apparent then that he had a rare skill set and exceptionally high floor. Mack's breakout coincided with dramatic changes to the Marlins front office. Inheriting such a talented catcher did not deter new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix from acquiring more candidates to fill the position long term. Bendix added Agustín Ramírez at the 2024 trade deadline and Liam Hicks during last year's Rule 5 draft. As rookies in 2025, they combined to start 120 MLB games at catcher, producing well enough that Mack wasn't called up to Miami despite excelling against Triple-A competition. But as the season progressed, Ramírez's receiving struggles and Hicks' limited power largely negated their redeeming qualities. Although both can meaningfully contribute to the Marlins in 2026 and beyond, neither of them profile as the primary catcher for a contending team. There is ample room for Mack in Miami. As of this writing, the Marlins 40-man roster consists of 38 players, with Ramírez and Hicks being the only catchers (and there being serious doubt about Ramírez's future at the position). Even if the Marlins don't intend to carry Mack on their Opening Day active roster, every other team with open 40-man spots happily would as part of the Rule 5 requirements. Whenever a consensus Top 100 MLB prospect like Mack winds up in this situation, you need to protect the asset. It is premature to anoint Mack as the Marlins' franchise catcher. Maybe severe injuries derail him, he fails to hit at the highest level or somebody else in the organization improves enough to surpass him on the depth chart. At least in those improbable scenarios, he could still be traded for talent that addresses other areas of the organization. That's preferable to a one-time $100,000 payment, which is all you get as compensation for losing a player in the major league phase of the Rule 5. There is a sizable gap in value between Mack and the rest of the Marlins' Rule 5-eligible players. Keep an eye out for articles analyzing the others who are worth considering for 40-man selections—they'll all be housed in FOF's Fish on the Farm section. View full article

The full schedule for Major League Baseball's 2026 spring training was released on Wednesday. In addition to their 28 Grapefruit League games, the Miami Marlins will face Israel's World Baseball Classic roster in an exhibition and participate in the third annual Spring Breakout, with their top prospects competing against Houston Astros farmhands. As usual, most of the Marlins' spring training games feature opponents whose camps are also located in southeast Florida: the Astros, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals. They'll play six games apiece against them. Slightly more travel will be involved for games against the Clearwater-based Philadelphia Phillies and Dunedin-based Toronto Blue Jays. It all begins Saturday, February 21 with a visit to the Mets in Port St. Lucie. Just like in 2023, Israel has been assigned to loanDepot park's WBC pool. Their exhibition against the Fish in Jupiter is scheduled for March 3, four days before the country begins tournament play in Miami. The Spring Breakout game will be on March 19. Health permitting, Marlins prospects Thomas White, Joe Mack, Robby Snelling, Aiva Arquette, Starlyn Caba and Kemp Alderman should all be participating. Mini plans, season tickets and group ticket packages to games at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium go on sale on November 12. Individual game tickets are available beginning January 10. View full rumor

From Swimming Upstream, Marlins right-hander Karson Milbrandt discusses how he stumbled upon an important adjustment to his delivery midway through this season. View full video