-
Posts
3,584 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
268
Content Type
Profiles
Miami Marlins Videos
2026 Miami Marlins Top Prospects Ranking
Miami Marlins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Miami Marlins Draft Picks
News
2025 Miami Marlins Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Ely Sussman
-
The Miami Marlins will have some continuity at the highest levels of their baseball operations department for the foreseeable future. On Monday, the club announced that three of Peter Bendix's initial hires during the 2023-24 offseason—Gabe Kapler, Frankie Piliere and Vinesh Kanthan—have been promoted. After previously serving as one of the Marlins' assistant general managers, Kapler is now their GM. Piliere has been elevated from director of amateur scouting to vice president of amateur scouting and player evaluation initiatives, while Kanthan goes from director of baseball operations to senior director of baseball operations. "These three leaders have each made a meaningful impact since joining our team, exemplifying the values that define our culture: driving innovation across every area of the team, leading with a forward-thinking mindset, and elevating those around them as great teammates," Bendix said in a press release. "Their advancement is a testament to the caliber of talent and person within our organization and our continued commitment to building a culture of collaboration and excellence." Kim Ng was Miami's general manager from November 2020 to October 2023. Nobody else held that title until now. Kapler, 50, becomes the sixth general manager in franchise history. Since joining the Marlins, Kapler has focused on player, coaching and staff development. A former outfielder for parts of 12 MLB seasons, he also was the manager of the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies and director of player development for the Los Angeles Dodgers. "It is an exciting time to be part of the Marlins organization, and I am ready to continue the great work we are doing here, alongside Peter and our entire Baseball Operations staff," said Kapler. "The growth and momentum we've built are a direct reflection of a clear vision, a strong culture, and an incredible team working together toward a shared goal. I'm proud to help continue that progress and contribute to what's ahead." Both still in their 30s, Piliere and Kanthan were brought over from the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers, respectively. Piliere will remain intimately involved in the MLB Draft process moving forward. Under his direction, the Marlins unconventionally used all of their 2025 picks to select college players. Kanthan's role in the front office is more vague—he ensures that the various baseball operations departments efficiently collaborate with one another. View full article
- 2 replies
-
- gabe kapler
- frankie piliere
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
The Miami Marlins will have some continuity at the highest levels of their baseball operations department for the foreseeable future. On Monday, the club announced that three of Peter Bendix's initial hires during the 2023-24 offseason—Gabe Kapler, Frankie Piliere and Vinesh Kanthan—have been promoted. After previously serving as one of the Marlins' assistant general managers, Kapler is now their GM. Piliere has been elevated from director of amateur scouting to vice president of amateur scouting and player evaluation initiatives, while Kanthan goes from director of baseball operations to senior director of baseball operations. "These three leaders have each made a meaningful impact since joining our team, exemplifying the values that define our culture: driving innovation across every area of the team, leading with a forward-thinking mindset, and elevating those around them as great teammates," Bendix said in a press release. "Their advancement is a testament to the caliber of talent and person within our organization and our continued commitment to building a culture of collaboration and excellence." Kim Ng was Miami's general manager from November 2020 to October 2023. Nobody else held that title until now. Kapler, 50, becomes the sixth general manager in franchise history. Since joining the Marlins, Kapler has focused on player, coaching and staff development. A former outfielder for parts of 12 MLB seasons, he also was the manager of the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies and director of player development for the Los Angeles Dodgers. "It is an exciting time to be part of the Marlins organization, and I am ready to continue the great work we are doing here, alongside Peter and our entire Baseball Operations staff," said Kapler. "The growth and momentum we've built are a direct reflection of a clear vision, a strong culture, and an incredible team working together toward a shared goal. I'm proud to help continue that progress and contribute to what's ahead." Both still in their 30s, Piliere and Kanthan were brought over from the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers, respectively. Piliere will remain intimately involved in the MLB Draft process moving forward. Under his direction, the Marlins unconventionally used all of their 2025 picks to select college players. Kanthan's role in the front office is more vague—he ensures that the various baseball operations departments efficiently collaborate with one another.
- 2 comments
-
- gabe kapler
- frankie piliere
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Swimming Upstream—Episode #68 The World Series may be over, but the 2025 baseball season is still ongoing for some notable Miami Marlins prospects out west. Ely Sussman and Kevin Barral are joined by right-hander Karson Milbrandt, who's participating in the Arizona Fall League. Drafted by the Marlins in 2022, Milbrandt reflects on his professional journey thus far, how he adjusted to new levels of competition this year, pitch-calling from the dugout and where he has room for continued growth. Find Swimming Upstream on the Fish On First YouTube channel, our new-look Apple Podcasts channel and wherever else you get your pods. FOF's audio programming also includes Fish On First LIVE, Fish Unfiltered, Big Fish Small Pod and more. The start of Milbrandt's age-21 campaign was delayed due to the inflammation in his throwing arm. High-A Beloit activated him from the injured list on April 17 and it wasn't until June 13 that he completed five innings in an outing. He really found his groove during the final month of the regular season, holding opponents scoreless in three of his last five starts and earning a promotion to Double-A Pensacola. Milbrandt's 3.00 ERA overall was easily a career-best, as was his 29.0% strikeout rate. The addition of a gyro slider to his arsenal made him especially effective against right-handed batters. We've bumped him up to 13th on the Fish On First Top 30. Milbrandt tells Swimming Upstream that his next scheduled AFL appearance is on Thursday, pitching in relief for the Solar Sox. After that, he'll take the mound in Sunday's Fall Stars Game. For updates on more than a dozen Marlins players who are competing in fall/winter ball leagues, bookmark this tracker. Follow Karson (@KarsonMilbrandt), Ely (@RealEly), Kevin (@kevin_barral) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View full article
-
The World Series may be over, but the 2025 baseball season is still ongoing for some notable Miami Marlins prospects out west. Ely Sussman and Kevin Barral are joined by right-hander Karson Milbrandt, who's participating in the Arizona Fall League. Drafted by the Marlins in 2022, Milbrandt reflects on his professional journey thus far, how he adjusted to new levels of competition this year, pitch-calling from the dugout and where he has room for continued growth. Find Swimming Upstream on the Fish On First YouTube channel, our new-look Apple Podcasts channel and wherever else you get your pods. FOF's audio programming also includes Fish On First LIVE, Fish Unfiltered, Big Fish Small Pod and more. The start of Milbrandt's age-21 campaign was delayed due to the inflammation in his throwing arm. High-A Beloit activated him from the injured list on April 17 and it wasn't until June 13 that he completed five innings in an outing. He really found his groove during the final month of the regular season, holding opponents scoreless in three of his last five starts and earning a promotion to Double-A Pensacola. Milbrandt's 3.00 ERA overall was easily a career-best, as was his 29.0% strikeout rate. The addition of a gyro slider to his arsenal made him especially effective against right-handed batters. We've bumped him up to 13th on the Fish On First Top 30. Milbrandt tells Swimming Upstream that his next scheduled AFL appearance is on Thursday, pitching in relief for the Solar Sox. After that, he'll take the mound in Sunday's Fall Stars Game. For updates on more than a dozen Marlins players who are competing in fall/winter ball leagues, bookmark this tracker. Follow Karson (@KarsonMilbrandt), Ely (@RealEly), Kevin (@kevin_barral) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com.
-
During Bruce Sherman's ownership tenure, the Miami Marlins have never approached an offseason with the explicit purpose of constructing a playoff-caliber team. Given the quality of their performance at the end of 2025 and the opportunities that will be available to reinforce the roster without breaking the bank or mortgaging too much of the future, it's time for that change. In what has become an annual tradition, I'm imagining how the Marlins offseason would go if I were in charge of baseball operations. There is no new reporting in here, to be clear. I have devised this blueprint based on my understanding of the organization's roster construction philosophy, minor league depth and broad goals for next season and beyond. However, Fish On First cannot confirm whether any of the following hypothetical free agent signings, trade acquisitions or contract extensions are being considered by Peter Bendix's front office. Post-World Series roster crunch Within a couple days of this article's publication, the Marlins will make real-life roster moves in order to reinstate players who finished the 2025 season on the 60-day injured list. Their 40-man roster is full before even accounting for these players. Within a couple weeks of that, they will select at least one (likely multiple) prospects to the 40-man to protect them from the upcoming Rule 5 draft. What would Ely do? Marlins waive LHP Andrew Nardi, RHP Christian Roa, LHP Josh Simpson, RHP George Soriano, RHP Jesús Tinoco, 1B Eric Wagaman, OF Joey Wiemer, INF Jack Winkler and RHP Tyler Zuber I previously wrote about these roster cut candidates here. Each of them spent less than half of the 2025 season on the Marlins active roster with the exception of Eric Wagaman, who stunningly stuck around from wire to wire. The other MLB teams would have the opportunity to claim them off waivers. If unclaimed and outrighted to the minor leagues, they are all allowed to elect minor league free agency with the exception of Joey Wiemer, who would remain under the Marlins' control. (To become MiLB FAs, players must have completed seven professional seasons or previously been outrighted.) Marlins select RHP William Kempner, C Joe Mack and RHP Josh White to 40-man roster Joe Mack is the no-brainer of this trio. He has had back-to-back excellent all-around seasons in the upper minors at a premium defensive position, and he's still two months shy of his 23rd birthday. Mack is a critical piece of the Marlins' future. William Kempner and Josh White were damn near unhittable out of the bullpen in 2025. The difference between their arm angles is amusing, with Kempner practically throwing sidearm and White using an outlier over-the-top delivery. Both approaches result in lots of strikeouts and very few barrels. I prefer their upside over any of the aforementioned waived players and worry that they'll be taken in the Rule 5 if left unprotected. Free agency Marlins sign RHP Ryan Helsley (3 YR/$24M) $6M in 2026, $9M in 2027 and $9M in 2028 Annual $500k award bonus for Relief Pitcher of the Year Helsley may opt out following 2026 season The Marlins bullpen was devoid of elite velocity this season, and as much as I believe in Kempner and White, their fastballs don't have that "elite" characteristic. Ryan Helsley's four-seamer does with an average velo of 99.3 mph, which ranked ninth among all individual reliever pitch types in 2025, according to Baseball Savant (min. 100 pitches thrown). His velo held steady even during his brutal second-half slump as a member of the New York Mets. Helsley was a top-five RP in Major League Baseball in 2024. Then, the opponent's slugging percentage against his fastball skyrocketed three hundred points, from .367 to .667 in 2025. As far I can tell, most of that is attributable to falling behind in counts way more often and becoming predictable in those situations—he threw 64.7% fastballs when behind. My bounce-back plan for the 31-year-old would involve using fewer four-seamers to maximize their overall effectiveness. Whether facing lefties or righties, his slider is absolutely lethal. It is a guaranteed three-year contract for Helsley, but both sides would be rooting for him to depart after one. Simply performing up to his career averages in 2026 would justify opting out to test the market again. Along the way, he'd be significantly improving Miami's 'pen. Marlins sign RHP Triston McKenzie, LHP Jordan Montgomery, C Eric Haase, OF Harold Ramírez and 1B Eric Wagaman to minor league deals This is a rare situation where I am so comfortable with the internal rotation options that I feel no need to sign any free agent starting pitchers to guaranteed contracts. Browsing the vast pool of minor league deal candidates, I covet Triston McKenzie for his upside. His performance was only a smidge below All-Star-caliber in 2022, he's squashing injury concerns by pitching right now in the Dominican Winter League and he's entering his age-28 season. Coming off a lost year in which he threw only half of his MLB/Triple-A pitches for strikes, McKenzie's lack of control is the foremost worry. The benefits of a potential career rejuvenation would be realized beyond 2026 because he has at least one more year of arbitration eligibility (waiting until late April to select him to the Marlins roster would make it two years). Jordan Montgomery was a high-end No. 3 starter from 2021-23 before a disastrous stint with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The tall southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in April, and with that being his second career TJ, I'd be targeting the All-Star break for his return. He's mainly an insurance policy in case this Marlins season goes to s*** and I wind up selling one or more starting pitchers at the trade deadline, leaving behind innings for Montgomery to eat in August/September. There is an extreme amount of swing-and-miss in Eric Haase's game, but that hasn't precluded him from having some great offensive stretches. The eight-year MLB veteran will compete for the backup catcher's job. Haase is a good athlete who can even fake it in left field in emergencies. Am I showing my bias with the Harold Ramírez idea, or respectfully carrying on the annual tradition of reuniting Peter Bendix with players he previously knew from his Tampa Bay Rays tenure? A bit of both. Ramírez is a lifetime .285/.322/.406 hitter in MLB, but he posted a yucky .261/.280/.324 slash line in 2024. He played this past season in the Mexican League. Although Wagaman did not merit a 40-man spot throughout the offseason, there's a path for him to get back up to Miami as a short-side platoon bat. It would require a few injuries and some actualization of his impressive raw power during spring training. Trades Marlins trade INF/OF Andrew Salas, RHP Eliazar Dishmey, OF Victor Mesa Jr. and RHP Adam Mazur to the St. Louis Cardinals for OF/1B Alec Burleson, 3B Nolan Arenado, LHP JoJo Romero and $7 million cash For a complete analysis of this seven-player swap, read here. Alec Burleson would be the centerpiece. He has the potential to be the best first baseman that the Marlins have had in decades—a low bar to clear, but still—and he's under club control through 2028 via arbitration. JoJo Romero would slot in as the top left-handed option in the Marlins bullpen. He's a ground ball machine who stranded 23 of 26 inherited runners in 2025. Romero is a pending free agent. There are two years left on Nolan Arenado's underwater contract. He also has full no-trade protection, but there's reportedly mutual interest in finding him a change of scenery. He remains a plus contact hitter and defender at the hot corner. Although undoubtedly past his prime, Arenado could easily top this season's .237/.289/.377 slash line with plate approach adjustments and a clean bill of health. This trio would count for approximately $23 million toward the Marlins payroll in 2026 ($6M of Arenado's salary is deferred until 2040). The prospect package heading up to St. Louis consists of several "layers" of talent. Victor Mesa Jr. and Adam Mazur would be competing for big league reps right away, whereas in Miami, both were pretty far down the depth chart. Eliazar Dishmey could be a Cardinals rotation candidate by the end of 2027. Extreme patience is needed with Andrew Salas, the crown jewel of the latest Marlins international free agent class ($3.7M signing bonus). Salas turns 18 in March. Marlins trade LHP Braxton Garrett and INF Connor Norby to the Seattle Mariners for OF Jonny Farmelo A toolsy and well-rounded center fielder, Jonny Farmelo was sidelined for most of the 2024 and 2025 seasons due to injuries. That hasn't hindered him at all during the Arizona Fall League as he's seemingly in the midst of cementing himself as a consensus Top 100 MLB prospect. His ability to handle breaking balls still must be developed. Farmelo would likely be assigned to High-A Beloit to begin next season. Braxton Garrett's trade value is tough to gauge at the moment because of his own health setbacks, but I would expect the Mariners to find him attractive. Their ultra-talented but all-right-handed starting rotation took a step back in 2025, and that group continues to get more expensive via arbitration raises. Garrett owns a lifetime 111 ERA+ through parts of five MLB seasons on the strength of plus command. He is under club control through 2028. There just isn't a sensible fit for Connor Norby in my alternate universe, with Arenado and Graham Pauley sharing third base and Xavier Edwards locked in at second base. He slashed .293/.344/.500 with a 131 wRC+ after returning from midseason hamate surgery. However, he's been merely an average hitter during his Marlins tenure overall. Valuable veterans Eugenio Suárez and Jorge Polanco are both pending free agents. Assuming that the Mariners are unable to retain both, there'd be ample room in their infield for Norby. Marlins trade RHP Anthony Bender to the Athletics for 3B/1B Tommy White The A's would be dealing from an area of strength here as they have a handful of controllable, dynamic offensive players already in place at the major league level. A highly accomplished college slugger, "Tommy Tanks" has put up pedestrian numbers as a pro so far (98 wRC+ in 118 games). I'd be thrilled to buy low on him. His raw power is still unquestionably plus and so is his contact ability, and he may actually stick at third base moving forward, even if the best-case scenario there is average defense. If the Arenado pick-up flops and he continues to decline, White could be his successor by 2027. Anthony Bender has had a good Marlins career, particularly given his origin as a minor league free agent signing. In 2025, he posted a career-best 2.16 ERA and he was also on pace for a career-best in win probability added (1.01 WPA) before going down with a leg injury. He's super reliable against right-handed batters and still a bargain ($2.3M arbitration projection), but rebalancing the bullpen to neutralize lefties continues to be a priority for me. Marlins trade OF Brandon Compton to the Atlanta Braves for LHP Hayden Harris Hayden Harris eviscerated the upper minors in 2025, permitting three earned runs in 52 innings pitched while striking out more than 40% of opposing batters. The Braves rewarded him with a September call-up. He leans very heavily on a low-90s fastball. The pitch's velocity plays up due to the seven feet of extension in his delivery and his arm angle. I'm not expecting dominance from Harris in MLB, but I'm intrigued by the contrast in styles between he and JoJo Romero—even a top-tier righty would have trouble adjusting to both of them within the same game. QndvN2RfWGw0TUFRPT1fVlZKWkFnSldWd01BQ1ZRREFnQUhCZ0VGQUFCUUJRVUFVQU1DVWdZRVZWZFdCZ1ZX.mp4 Miami's second-round selection in the 2025 draft, Brandon Compton got his MiLB career started with High-A Beloit (.217/.354/.359 in 27 games). There is prodigious power potential as he demonstrated during the MLB Draft Combine. Alas, being limited to left field defensively and susceptible to swing-and-misses, there are too many ways for his progress to stall. I'll humbly tip my cap to the Braves if they can develop him into a consistent big leaguer. Contract extensions Marlins extend RHP Eury Pérez (5 YR/$60M with 2031 club option) $5M in 2026, $7.5M in 2027, $10M in 2028, $12.5M in 2029, $20M in 2030 and $23M club option for 2031 ($5M buyout) Extension covers ages 23-28 if option is exercised Annual $500k award bonus for Cy Young uo2eyy_2.mp4 If I were advising Eury Pérez, I would do everything possible to steer him toward free agency. MLB teams adore pitchers with his combination of size, fastball quality and youth. Thanks to that unique profile, he has immense job security regardless of what he accomplishes during his four remaining club-controlled years. If he's "broken" by a series of unfortunate events, suitors will be lining to fix him; if he gradually improves in terms of effectiveness and workload, he's poised to receive one of the richest pitcher contracts ever. Conveniently for the Fish, Pérez may be getting different advice. He has the same representation as Sandy Alcantara (Adriel Reyes of CAA), the only player to date who has signed a long-term contract extension during the Bruce Sherman era. The terms of my hypothetical "Baby Goat" extension are partially inspired by Alcantara's, but I see Cincinnati Reds right-hander Hunter Greene as a more relevant comp. This deal would set a new MLB record for most expensive club option included in a pre-arb pitcher's extension. I am not remotely bothered by Pérez's 4.25 ERA this season, which was inflated by the way opponents clustered their hits against him. I saw a pitcher who leveled up from his rookie year despite overall production that obscures this trend line. In 2026, I think Pérez could establish himself as an ace-caliber starter. Let's get out ahead of the full-blown breakout. Marlins extend C Joe Mack (6 YR/$31M with 2032-34 club options) $1M in 2026, $1.75M in 2027, $2.5M in 2028, $5M in 2029, $8M in 2030, $11M in 2031, $14M club option for 2032 ($1.75M buyout), $14M club option for 2033 ($1.75M buyout) and $14M club option for 2034 ($1.75M buyout) Extension covers ages 23-31 if all options are exercised Annual $250k award bonus for Gold Glove Annual $250k award bonus for Silver Slugger There has never been a pre-debut extension for a catcher before, and this technically wouldn't be one either, as I'll explain at the end. Joe Mack had a sensational 2024 season spent mostly at Double-A. His 2025 campaign was practically a carbon copy of it, except it came against Triple-A competition. Both years, he OPS'd over .800 while throwing out one-third of would-be base-stealers. Marlins fans will naturally use J.T. Realmuto as the reference point for an ideal homegrown catcher. Although Mack isn't quite on his level as a pure hitter or baserunner, he's the most promising candidate that this franchise has had to fill the quality backstop void since Realmuto's departure. The growth of catcher salaries has lagged behind league-wide inflation and that should continue to be the case, which works to my advantage in negotiations. Future earning potential at the position has been dinged by the rarity of stars reaching free agency. World Series hero Will Smith would've broken the bank this offseason had he not already signed a lifetime deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. American League MVP finalist Cal Raleigh finalized his own extension too soon to capitalize on a historic season. We are on the verge of getting the ABS challenge system in MLB games. With the technology to overturn the most egregious missed calls from umpires, that will limit the impact of pitch framing (and the value that good framers will have on the open market). Also, the Marlins organization is experimenting with having coaches lead the pitch-calling process, and the early returns are encouraging. Taking another job responsibility off of a catcher's plate further shifts leverage to the team. I'm especially eager to see Mack form a battery with Eury Pérez because their skill sets are complementary. It will always be a challenge for the 6'8" right-hander to control baserunners, but Mack's lightning-quick release and accuracy can mitigate the damage. Colt Keith received a surprising pre-debut extension from the Detroit Tigers entering 2024 under the premise that his standout hit tool made him a safe, high-floor contributor. I think Mack's defense behind the plate serves the same purpose—that's why I used Keith's extension as a template for Mack's. Although Mack would be on my Opening Day roster, we would wait a few days after his debut to announce the deal. That preserves his Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) draft pick eligibility. How the pieces fit together Here is a before-and-after look at the Marlins 40-man roster once the dust has settled on my offseason moves. Players no longer with the organization have been crossed off Outside additions to the 40-man roster are highlighted, underlined and italicized Down arrows denote players who are still with the organization, but no longer hold 40-man spots Up arrows denote players who were already with the organization, but now hold 40-man spots Look closely and you'll see I have made a few position changes. The most important one is moving Agustín Ramírez off of the catcher's position. He shouldn't throw his equipment in the trash—in the event of a significant Mack injury, Ramírez may be needed. But I would head into 2026 with zero expectations of using him back there. The common transition of failed catchers becoming first basemen isn't applicable to the Gus Bus, who struggles most of all with receiving balls and picking them out of the dirt. Instead, I would prepare him to play left field against occasional left-handed starters. The vast majority of the time, he'd be my designated hitter, and I'm bullish about his production at the plate going way up. Heriberto Hernández, who had some first base experience in the lower minors, took practice reps with the Marlins this season. I'm comfortable deploying him there in real games when Alec Burleson needs a breather (and until Deyvison De Los Santos potentially crashes the party later in the year). My probable Opening Day starting rotation (health permitting) would be Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers and Janson Junk. Potential trades of Alcantara and Cabrera ought to be explored in July, but not yet. Anticipating midseason contributions from Robby Snelling and Thomas White, I believe this will be the team's greatest strength. The out-of-options relievers are Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Ronny Henriquez, Tyler Phillips and Freddy Tarnok. There'd be countless ways to fill in the bullpen around them. Accounting for dead money owed to Giancarlo Stanton and Avisaíl García, the Marlins would enter 2026 with a payroll in the $90-100 million range. That is where they stood in early 2023 before spending even more to augment the roster in pursuit of a postseason berth. Bruce Sherman will pay to support a winner again if the opportunity arises...right? View full article
- 10 replies
-
- eury perez
- joe mack
- (and 7 more)
-
During Bruce Sherman's ownership tenure, the Miami Marlins have never approached an offseason with the explicit purpose of constructing a playoff-caliber team. Given the quality of their performance at the end of 2025 and the opportunities that will be available to reinforce the roster without breaking the bank or mortgaging too much of the future, it's time for that change. In what has become an annual tradition, I'm imagining how the Marlins offseason would go if I were in charge of baseball operations. There is no new reporting in here, to be clear. I have devised this blueprint based on my understanding of the organization's roster construction philosophy, minor league depth and broad goals for next season and beyond. However, Fish On First cannot confirm whether any of the following hypothetical free agent signings, trade acquisitions or contract extensions are being considered by Peter Bendix's front office. Post-World Series roster crunch Within a couple days of this article's publication, the Marlins will make real-life roster moves in order to reinstate players who finished the 2025 season on the 60-day injured list. Their 40-man roster is full before even accounting for these players. Within a couple weeks of that, they will select at least one (likely multiple) prospects to the 40-man to protect them from the upcoming Rule 5 draft. What would Ely do? Marlins waive LHP Andrew Nardi, RHP Christian Roa, LHP Josh Simpson, RHP George Soriano, RHP Jesús Tinoco, 1B Eric Wagaman, OF Joey Wiemer, INF Jack Winkler and RHP Tyler Zuber I previously wrote about these roster cut candidates here. Each of them spent less than half of the 2025 season on the Marlins active roster with the exception of Eric Wagaman, who stunningly stuck around from wire to wire. The other MLB teams would have the opportunity to claim them off waivers. If unclaimed and outrighted to the minor leagues, they are all allowed to elect minor league free agency with the exception of Joey Wiemer, who would remain under the Marlins' control. (To become MiLB FAs, players must have completed seven professional seasons or previously been outrighted.) Marlins select RHP William Kempner, C Joe Mack and RHP Josh White to 40-man roster Joe Mack is the no-brainer of this trio. He has had back-to-back excellent all-around seasons in the upper minors at a premium defensive position, and he's still two months shy of his 23rd birthday. Mack is a critical piece of the Marlins' future. William Kempner and Josh White were damn near unhittable out of the bullpen in 2025. The difference between their arm angles is amusing, with Kempner practically throwing sidearm and White using an outlier over-the-top delivery. Both approaches result in lots of strikeouts and very few barrels. I prefer their upside over any of the aforementioned waived players and worry that they'll be taken in the Rule 5 if left unprotected. Free agency Marlins sign RHP Ryan Helsley (3 YR/$24M) $6M in 2026, $9M in 2027 and $9M in 2028 Annual $500k award bonus for Relief Pitcher of the Year Helsley may opt out following 2026 season The Marlins bullpen was devoid of elite velocity this season, and as much as I believe in Kempner and White, their fastballs don't have that "elite" characteristic. Ryan Helsley's four-seamer does with an average velo of 99.3 mph, which ranked ninth among all individual reliever pitch types in 2025, according to Baseball Savant (min. 100 pitches thrown). His velo held steady even during his brutal second-half slump as a member of the New York Mets. Helsley was a top-five RP in Major League Baseball in 2024. Then, the opponent's slugging percentage against his fastball skyrocketed three hundred points, from .367 to .667 in 2025. As far I can tell, most of that is attributable to falling behind in counts way more often and becoming predictable in those situations—he threw 64.7% fastballs when behind. My bounce-back plan for the 31-year-old would involve using fewer four-seamers to maximize their overall effectiveness. Whether facing lefties or righties, his slider is absolutely lethal. It is a guaranteed three-year contract for Helsley, but both sides would be rooting for him to depart after one. Simply performing up to his career averages in 2026 would justify opting out to test the market again. Along the way, he'd be significantly improving Miami's 'pen. Marlins sign RHP Triston McKenzie, LHP Jordan Montgomery, C Eric Haase, OF Harold Ramírez and 1B Eric Wagaman to minor league deals This is a rare situation where I am so comfortable with the internal rotation options that I feel no need to sign any free agent starting pitchers to guaranteed contracts. Browsing the vast pool of minor league deal candidates, I covet Triston McKenzie for his upside. His performance was only a smidge below All-Star-caliber in 2022, he's squashing injury concerns by pitching right now in the Dominican Winter League and he's entering his age-28 season. Coming off a lost year in which he threw only half of his MLB/Triple-A pitches for strikes, McKenzie's lack of control is the foremost worry. The benefits of a potential career rejuvenation would be realized beyond 2026 because he has at least one more year of arbitration eligibility (waiting until late April to select him to the Marlins roster would make it two years). Jordan Montgomery was a high-end No. 3 starter from 2021-23 before a disastrous stint with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The tall southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in April, and with that being his second career TJ, I'd be targeting the All-Star break for his return. He's mainly an insurance policy in case this Marlins season goes to s*** and I wind up selling one or more starting pitchers at the trade deadline, leaving behind innings for Montgomery to eat in August/September. There is an extreme amount of swing-and-miss in Eric Haase's game, but that hasn't precluded him from having some great offensive stretches. The eight-year MLB veteran will compete for the backup catcher's job. Haase is a good athlete who can even fake it in left field in emergencies. Am I showing my bias with the Harold Ramírez idea, or respectfully carrying on the annual tradition of reuniting Peter Bendix with players he previously knew from his Tampa Bay Rays tenure? A bit of both. Ramírez is a lifetime .285/.322/.406 hitter in MLB, but he posted a yucky .261/.280/.324 slash line in 2024. He played this past season in the Mexican League. Although Wagaman did not merit a 40-man spot throughout the offseason, there's a path for him to get back up to Miami as a short-side platoon bat. It would require a few injuries and some actualization of his impressive raw power during spring training. Trades Marlins trade INF/OF Andrew Salas, RHP Eliazar Dishmey, OF Victor Mesa Jr. and RHP Adam Mazur to the St. Louis Cardinals for OF/1B Alec Burleson, 3B Nolan Arenado, LHP JoJo Romero and $7 million cash For a complete analysis of this seven-player swap, read here. Alec Burleson would be the centerpiece. He has the potential to be the best first baseman that the Marlins have had in decades—a low bar to clear, but still—and he's under club control through 2028 via arbitration. JoJo Romero would slot in as the top left-handed option in the Marlins bullpen. He's a ground ball machine who stranded 23 of 26 inherited runners in 2025. Romero is a pending free agent. There are two years left on Nolan Arenado's underwater contract. He also has full no-trade protection, but there's reportedly mutual interest in finding him a change of scenery. He remains a plus contact hitter and defender at the hot corner. Although undoubtedly past his prime, Arenado could easily top this season's .237/.289/.377 slash line with plate approach adjustments and a clean bill of health. This trio would count for approximately $23 million toward the Marlins payroll in 2026 ($6M of Arenado's salary is deferred until 2040). The prospect package heading up to St. Louis consists of several "layers" of talent. Victor Mesa Jr. and Adam Mazur would be competing for big league reps right away, whereas in Miami, both were pretty far down the depth chart. Eliazar Dishmey could be a Cardinals rotation candidate by the end of 2027. Extreme patience is needed with Andrew Salas, the crown jewel of the latest Marlins international free agent class ($3.7M signing bonus). Salas turns 18 in March. Marlins trade LHP Braxton Garrett and INF Connor Norby to the Seattle Mariners for OF Jonny Farmelo A toolsy and well-rounded center fielder, Jonny Farmelo was sidelined for most of the 2024 and 2025 seasons due to injuries. That hasn't hindered him at all during the Arizona Fall League as he's seemingly in the midst of cementing himself as a consensus Top 100 MLB prospect. His ability to handle breaking balls still must be developed. Farmelo would likely be assigned to High-A Beloit to begin next season. Braxton Garrett's trade value is tough to gauge at the moment because of his own health setbacks, but I would expect the Mariners to find him attractive. Their ultra-talented but all-right-handed starting rotation took a step back in 2025, and that group continues to get more expensive via arbitration raises. Garrett owns a lifetime 111 ERA+ through parts of five MLB seasons on the strength of plus command. He is under club control through 2028. There just isn't a sensible fit for Connor Norby in my alternate universe, with Arenado and Graham Pauley sharing third base and Xavier Edwards locked in at second base. He slashed .293/.344/.500 with a 131 wRC+ after returning from midseason hamate surgery. However, he's been merely an average hitter during his Marlins tenure overall. Valuable veterans Eugenio Suárez and Jorge Polanco are both pending free agents. Assuming that the Mariners are unable to retain both, there'd be ample room in their infield for Norby. Marlins trade RHP Anthony Bender to the Athletics for 3B/1B Tommy White The A's would be dealing from an area of strength here as they have a handful of controllable, dynamic offensive players already in place at the major league level. A highly accomplished college slugger, "Tommy Tanks" has put up pedestrian numbers as a pro so far (98 wRC+ in 118 games). I'd be thrilled to buy low on him. His raw power is still unquestionably plus and so is his contact ability, and he may actually stick at third base moving forward, even if the best-case scenario there is average defense. If the Arenado pick-up flops and he continues to decline, White could be his successor by 2027. Anthony Bender has had a good Marlins career, particularly given his origin as a minor league free agent signing. In 2025, he posted a career-best 2.16 ERA and he was also on pace for a career-best in win probability added (1.01 WPA) before going down with a leg injury. He's super reliable against right-handed batters and still a bargain ($2.3M arbitration projection), but rebalancing the bullpen to neutralize lefties continues to be a priority for me. Marlins trade OF Brandon Compton to the Atlanta Braves for LHP Hayden Harris Hayden Harris eviscerated the upper minors in 2025, permitting three earned runs in 52 innings pitched while striking out more than 40% of opposing batters. The Braves rewarded him with a September call-up. He leans very heavily on a low-90s fastball. The pitch's velocity plays up due to the seven feet of extension in his delivery and his arm angle. I'm not expecting dominance from Harris in MLB, but I'm intrigued by the contrast in styles between he and JoJo Romero—even a top-tier righty would have trouble adjusting to both of them within the same game. QndvN2RfWGw0TUFRPT1fVlZKWkFnSldWd01BQ1ZRREFnQUhCZ0VGQUFCUUJRVUFVQU1DVWdZRVZWZFdCZ1ZX.mp4 Miami's second-round selection in the 2025 draft, Brandon Compton got his MiLB career started with High-A Beloit (.217/.354/.359 in 27 games). There is prodigious power potential as he demonstrated during the MLB Draft Combine. Alas, being limited to left field defensively and susceptible to swing-and-misses, there are too many ways for his progress to stall. I'll humbly tip my cap to the Braves if they can develop him into a consistent big leaguer. Contract extensions Marlins extend RHP Eury Pérez (5 YR/$60M with 2031 club option) $5M in 2026, $7.5M in 2027, $10M in 2028, $12.5M in 2029, $20M in 2030 and $23M club option for 2031 ($5M buyout) Extension covers ages 23-28 if option is exercised Annual $500k award bonus for Cy Young uo2eyy_2.mp4 If I were advising Eury Pérez, I would do everything possible to steer him toward free agency. MLB teams adore pitchers with his combination of size, fastball quality and youth. Thanks to that unique profile, he has immense job security regardless of what he accomplishes during his four remaining club-controlled years. If he's "broken" by a series of unfortunate events, suitors will be lining to fix him; if he gradually improves in terms of effectiveness and workload, he's poised to receive one of the richest pitcher contracts ever. Conveniently for the Fish, Pérez may be getting different advice. He has the same representation as Sandy Alcantara (Adriel Reyes of CAA), the only player to date who has signed a long-term contract extension during the Bruce Sherman era. The terms of my hypothetical "Baby Goat" extension are partially inspired by Alcantara's, but I see Cincinnati Reds right-hander Hunter Greene as a more relevant comp. This deal would set a new MLB record for most expensive club option included in a pre-arb pitcher's extension. I am not remotely bothered by Pérez's 4.25 ERA this season, which was inflated by the way opponents clustered their hits against him. I saw a pitcher who leveled up from his rookie year despite overall production that obscures this trend line. In 2026, I think Pérez could establish himself as an ace-caliber starter. Let's get out ahead of the full-blown breakout. Marlins extend C Joe Mack (6 YR/$31M with 2032-34 club options) $1M in 2026, $1.75M in 2027, $2.5M in 2028, $5M in 2029, $8M in 2030, $11M in 2031, $14M club option for 2032 ($1.75M buyout), $14M club option for 2033 ($1.75M buyout) and $14M club option for 2034 ($1.75M buyout) Extension covers ages 23-31 if all options are exercised Annual $250k award bonus for Gold Glove Annual $250k award bonus for Silver Slugger There has never been a pre-debut extension for a catcher before, and this technically wouldn't be one either, as I'll explain at the end. Joe Mack had a sensational 2024 season spent mostly at Double-A. His 2025 campaign was practically a carbon copy of it, except it came against Triple-A competition. Both years, he OPS'd over .800 while throwing out one-third of would-be base-stealers. Marlins fans will naturally use J.T. Realmuto as the reference point for an ideal homegrown catcher. Although Mack isn't quite on his level as a pure hitter or baserunner, he's the most promising candidate that this franchise has had to fill the quality backstop void since Realmuto's departure. The growth of catcher salaries has lagged behind league-wide inflation and that should continue to be the case, which works to my advantage in negotiations. Future earning potential at the position has been dinged by the rarity of stars reaching free agency. World Series hero Will Smith would've broken the bank this offseason had he not already signed a lifetime deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. American League MVP finalist Cal Raleigh finalized his own extension too soon to capitalize on a historic season. We are on the verge of getting the ABS challenge system in MLB games. With the technology to overturn the most egregious missed calls from umpires, that will limit the impact of pitch framing (and the value that good framers will have on the open market). Also, the Marlins organization is experimenting with having coaches lead the pitch-calling process, and the early returns are encouraging. Taking another job responsibility off of a catcher's plate further shifts leverage to the team. I'm especially eager to see Mack form a battery with Eury Pérez because their skill sets are complementary. It will always be a challenge for the 6'8" right-hander to control baserunners, but Mack's lightning-quick release and accuracy can mitigate the damage. Colt Keith received a surprising pre-debut extension from the Detroit Tigers entering 2024 under the premise that his standout hit tool made him a safe, high-floor contributor. I think Mack's defense behind the plate serves the same purpose—that's why I used Keith's extension as a template for Mack's. Although Mack would be on my Opening Day roster, we would wait a few days after his debut to announce the deal. That preserves his Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) draft pick eligibility. How the pieces fit together Here is a before-and-after look at the Marlins 40-man roster once the dust has settled on my offseason moves. Players no longer with the organization have been crossed off Outside additions to the 40-man roster are highlighted, underlined and italicized Down arrows denote players who are still with the organization, but no longer hold 40-man spots Up arrows denote players who were already with the organization, but now hold 40-man spots Look closely and you'll see I have made a few position changes. The most important one is moving Agustín Ramírez off of the catcher's position. He shouldn't throw his equipment in the trash—in the event of a significant Mack injury, Ramírez may be needed. But I would head into 2026 with zero expectations of using him back there. The common transition of failed catchers becoming first basemen isn't applicable to the Gus Bus, who struggles most of all with receiving balls and picking them out of the dirt. Instead, I would prepare him to play left field against occasional left-handed starters. The vast majority of the time, he'd be my designated hitter, and I'm bullish about his production at the plate going way up. Heriberto Hernández, who had some first base experience in the lower minors, took practice reps with the Marlins this season. I'm comfortable deploying him there in real games when Alec Burleson needs a breather (and until Deyvison De Los Santos potentially crashes the party later in the year). My probable Opening Day starting rotation (health permitting) would be Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers and Janson Junk. Potential trades of Alcantara and Cabrera ought to be explored in July, but not yet. Anticipating midseason contributions from Robby Snelling and Thomas White, I believe this will be the team's greatest strength. The out-of-options relievers are Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Ronny Henriquez, Tyler Phillips and Freddy Tarnok. There'd be countless ways to fill in the bullpen around them. Accounting for dead money owed to Giancarlo Stanton and Avisaíl García, the Marlins would enter 2026 with a payroll in the $90-100 million range. That is where they stood in early 2023 before spending even more to augment the roster in pursuit of a postseason berth. Bruce Sherman will pay to support a winner again if the opportunity arises...right?
- 10 comments
-
- eury perez
- joe mack
- (and 7 more)
-
The Los Angeles Dodgers are World Series champions once again and longtime Miami Marlins infielder Miguel Rojas played a surprisingly crucial role in Saturday's decisive Game 7. Former Marlins big leaguers Kiké Hernández, Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Andrew Heaney and José Ureña (yes, really) will also receive rings for their contributions over the course of the 2025 season. In fall/winter ball news, Karson Milbrandt tells Fish On First that he has been selected to participate in Sunday's AFL Fall Stars Game. The right-hander has posted a 5.11 ERA in 12 ⅓ innings pitched (4 G/2 GS) with 21 strikeouts, the third-highest total in the league. On Sunday, Aiden May (3.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 59 pitches/33 strikes) had shaky control. Starlyn Caba went 2-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base. Fenwick Trimble went 1-for-1 with three walks. PJ Morlando has been held out of game action ever since suffering an apparent injury on Thursday. The Mesa Solar Sox won, 6-5. Maximo Acosta (Venezuela) went 1-for-4. Jared Serna (Mexico) was a single shy of the cycle, which included hitting his first home run of the season. Only 143 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 My annual Marlins offseason blueprint is complete! It details all of the moves I would hypothetically make—trades, free agent signings and extensions—leading up to the start of the 2026 season. 🔷 Javier Sanoja became the first Marlins rookie in 30 years to win a Gold Glove Award, while Robby Snelling won the minor league Gold Glove for top defensive pitcher. Xavier Edwards (second base) and Kyle Stowers (left field) were finalists, but lost out to Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ, respectively. 🔷 As the full MLB offseason commences, all of the major U.S. sportsbooks have set the Marlins' 2026 World Series odds at 100/1 or longer, most comparable to the Athletics, Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals. The consensus is that the Dodgers are favored to three-peat. 🔷 Congratulations to Marlins infielder Cody Morissette and Alexis Sweet, who got married on Saturday. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Major League Baseball Players Association announced the initial list of XX(B) free agents—MLB players with six-plus years of service time whose contracts have expired. The Marlins are the only team that is not set to lose any players. These free agents are eligible to sign with new teams beginning on Thursday. By then, dozens of additional players will hit the market due to various player/club/mutual options being declined. View full article
-
The Los Angeles Dodgers are World Series champions once again and longtime Miami Marlins infielder Miguel Rojas played a surprisingly crucial role in Saturday's decisive Game 7. Former Marlins big leaguers Kiké Hernández, Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Andrew Heaney and José Ureña (yes, really) will also receive rings for their contributions over the course of the 2025 season. In fall/winter ball news, Karson Milbrandt tells Fish On First that he has been selected to participate in Sunday's AFL Fall Stars Game. The right-hander has posted a 5.11 ERA in 12 ⅓ innings pitched (4 G/2 GS) with 21 strikeouts, the third-highest total in the league. On Sunday, Aiden May (3.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 59 pitches/33 strikes) had shaky control. Starlyn Caba went 2-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base. Fenwick Trimble went 1-for-1 with three walks. PJ Morlando has been held out of game action ever since suffering an apparent injury on Thursday. The Mesa Solar Sox won, 6-5. Maximo Acosta (Venezuela) went 1-for-4. Jared Serna (Mexico) was a single shy of the cycle, which included hitting his first home run of the season. Only 143 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 My annual Marlins offseason blueprint is complete! It details all of the moves I would hypothetically make—trades, free agent signings and extensions—leading up to the start of the 2026 season. 🔷 Javier Sanoja became the first Marlins rookie in 30 years to win a Gold Glove Award, while Robby Snelling won the minor league Gold Glove for top defensive pitcher. Xavier Edwards (second base) and Kyle Stowers (left field) were finalists, but lost out to Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ, respectively. 🔷 As the full MLB offseason commences, all of the major U.S. sportsbooks have set the Marlins' 2026 World Series odds at 100/1 or longer, most comparable to the Athletics, Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals. The consensus is that the Dodgers are favored to three-peat. 🔷 Congratulations to Marlins infielder Cody Morissette and Alexis Sweet, who got married on Saturday. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Major League Baseball Players Association announced the initial list of XX(B) free agents—MLB players with six-plus years of service time whose contracts have expired. The Marlins are the only team that is not set to lose any players. These free agents are eligible to sign with new teams beginning on Thursday. By then, dozens of additional players will hit the market due to various player/club/mutual options being declined.
-
Miguel Rojas had one of the longest Miami Marlins tenures of any player in franchise history. He spent much of those eight seasons as their sure-handed starting shortstop and gradually became known as the unofficial captain of the Fish. But after Saturday night's heroics, it's safe to say that when his career is over, he will be remembered first and foremost as a Los Angeles Dodger. The best team money could buy almost certainly would've fallen short of its second consecutive World Series title if not for the 36-year-old utilityman at the very bottom of the lineup. The Toronto Blue Jays were two measly outs away from defeating the Dodgers, leading 4-3 in the top of the ninth inning. Closer Jeff Hoffman was on the mound, riding a streak of seven straight scoreless postseason outings. Rojas had not homered against a right-hander all year, with the exception of a position player mopping up a blowout in June, nor recorded an extra-base hit of any kind in his Dodgers postseason career. Everybody watching wanted to fast-forward through this plate appearance to find what the man on deck, Shohei Ohtani, was going to do. Instead, we were treated to the most unlikely outcome as Rojas hit a solo shot off of Hoffman's hanging slider to tie Game 7 all by himself. 937e0314-4b8e00cb-22f8070a-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 "You always dream about this kinda stuff and being in this position. Hitting a homer wasn't on my bingo card, to be honest with you," Rojas told MLB Network postgame. Hoffman subsequently retired Ohtani (flyout) and Will Smith (strikeout) to preserve the tie entering the bottom of the inning. Although we cannot definitively say that those matchups would've unfolded the same way without Rojas' heroics, I have to imagine it was a sleepless night for many Blue Jays fans, convinced their decades-long championship drought would've been over had that ball simply stayed in the yard. Minutes later, the Dodgers found themselves in grave danger again. Toronto had loaded the bases with only out, facing a weary Yoshinobu Yamamoto who made a full-length start the night before. Yamamoto was hunting for a strikeout against Daulton Varsho, but his 1-2 splitter stayed up just enough for Varsho to hit a grounder to second base. These are the kind of difference-making plays that we're more accustomed to seeing from Rojas, who took just enough time to set his feet and throw home accurately for the game-saving force out. p3dolc.mp4 The Dodgers ultimately prevailed in 11 innings. The most lasting memories from this all-timer will likely be Will Smith's go-ahead homer and Yamamoto's superhuman relief effort, but Miggy Ro's ninth-inning contributions were indispensable. Along with Rojas, former Marlin Kiké Hernández was on L.A.'s roster throughout the postseason. They collaborated to turn a game-ending double play on Friday that extended the World Series in the first place. This is Hernández's third WS title as a Dodger (also 2020 and 2024). Continuing with the ex-Marlin theme, left-handed relievers Tanner Scott and Alex Vesia will receive rings despite not participating in the Fall Classic. Scott struggled to return to form after undergoing an abscess procedure last month, while Vesia was away from the team to tend to a family emergency. José Ureña is technically a champion, too. That would have been the case regardless of this matchup's outcome because both the Blue Jays (3.65 ERA in 12.1 IP) and the Dodgers (3.00 ERA in 3.0 IP) were among the five teams that he pitched for in 2025. During the 2026 season, the Marlins will visit the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium for a three-game series from April 27-29. They'll host the two-time defending champs at loanDepot park from September 11-13. View full article
- 1 reply
-
- miguel rojas
- enrique hernandez
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Former Marlin Miguel Rojas saves Dodgers with shocking Game 7 home run
Ely Sussman posted an article in MLB
Miguel Rojas had one of the longest Miami Marlins tenures of any player in franchise history. He spent much of those eight seasons as their sure-handed starting shortstop and gradually became known as the unofficial captain of the Fish. But after Saturday night's heroics, it's safe to say that when his career is over, he will be remembered first and foremost as a Los Angeles Dodger. The best team money could buy almost certainly would've fallen short of its second consecutive World Series title if not for the 36-year-old utilityman at the very bottom of the lineup. The Toronto Blue Jays were two measly outs away from defeating the Dodgers, leading 4-3 in the top of the ninth inning. Closer Jeff Hoffman was on the mound, riding a streak of seven straight scoreless postseason outings. Rojas had not homered against a right-hander all year, with the exception of a position player mopping up a blowout in June, nor recorded an extra-base hit of any kind in his Dodgers postseason career. Everybody watching wanted to fast-forward through this plate appearance to find what the man on deck, Shohei Ohtani, was going to do. Instead, we were treated to the most unlikely outcome as Rojas hit a solo shot off of Hoffman's hanging slider to tie Game 7 all by himself. 937e0314-4b8e00cb-22f8070a-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 "You always dream about this kinda stuff and being in this position. Hitting a homer wasn't on my bingo card, to be honest with you," Rojas told MLB Network postgame. Hoffman subsequently retired Ohtani (flyout) and Will Smith (strikeout) to preserve the tie entering the bottom of the inning. Although we cannot definitively say that those matchups would've unfolded the same way without Rojas' heroics, I have to imagine it was a sleepless night for many Blue Jays fans, convinced their decades-long championship drought would've been over had that ball simply stayed in the yard. Minutes later, the Dodgers found themselves in grave danger again. Toronto had loaded the bases with only out, facing a weary Yoshinobu Yamamoto who made a full-length start the night before. Yamamoto was hunting for a strikeout against Daulton Varsho, but his 1-2 splitter stayed up just enough for Varsho to hit a grounder to second base. These are the kind of difference-making plays that we're more accustomed to seeing from Rojas, who took just enough time to set his feet and throw home accurately for the game-saving force out. p3dolc.mp4 The Dodgers ultimately prevailed in 11 innings. The most lasting memories from this all-timer will likely be Will Smith's go-ahead homer and Yamamoto's superhuman relief effort, but Miggy Ro's ninth-inning contributions were indispensable. Along with Rojas, former Marlin Kiké Hernández was on L.A.'s roster throughout the postseason. They collaborated to turn a game-ending double play on Friday that extended the World Series in the first place. This is Hernández's third WS title as a Dodger (also 2020 and 2024). Continuing with the ex-Marlin theme, left-handed relievers Tanner Scott and Alex Vesia will receive rings despite not participating in the Fall Classic. Scott struggled to return to form after undergoing an abscess procedure last month, while Vesia was away from the team to tend to a family emergency. José Ureña is technically a champion, too. That would have been the case regardless of this matchup's outcome because both the Blue Jays (3.65 ERA in 12.1 IP) and the Dodgers (3.00 ERA in 3.0 IP) were among the five teams that he pitched for in 2025. During the 2026 season, the Marlins will visit the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium for a three-game series from April 27-29. They'll host the two-time defending champs at loanDepot park from September 11-13.- 1 comment
-
- miguel rojas
- enrique hernandez
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Happy Halloween! On Thursday in fall/winter ball, Starlyn Caba went 3-for-5, extending his on-base streak to 12 games. PJ Morlando went 0-for-1 with a walk and Fenwick Trimble went 1-for-4. Morlando exited the game early after making a diving catch in right field. The Mesa Solar Sox won, 6-4. Maximo Acosta (Venezuela) went 0-for-4 with a walk. On defense, he started a 5-4-3 triple play. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 1-for-5 with a walk. Only 146 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 Did you know that the Fish On First website has a section dedicated to guides and resources? I just published a comprehensive guide to the Marlins offseason schedule and updated our pre-existing Marlins ownership history guide to include the 2025 season. 🔷 I had trouble deciding for myself whether Braxton Garrett or Max Meyer had the higher current trade value, so I created a poll about it. Voting remains open through the end of the day. 🔷 MLB Trade Rumors reported that this offseason's "Super Two" cutoff to determine arbitration eligibility is expected to be approximately two years and 140 days of service time. It was already assumed, but this just confirms that Max Meyer (2.166) and Calvin Faucher (2.156) will comfortably clear the cutoff and be arb-eligible for the first time. 🔷 Blending ESPN's Relative Power Index, Baseball-Reference's Pythagorean Luck and TeamRankings' Luck Ratings, Rotowire deemed the Marlins to be MLB's luckiest team of 2025. 🔷 In an interview with Locked On Marlins (embedded below), Cade Gibson says that the New York Mets were interested in him had the Marlins not selected him in the 10th round of the 2022 draft. He credited the Marlins with adding a sweeper to his arsenal last spring, and Triple-A Jacksonville pitching coach Rob Marcello Jr. with tweaking his changeup grip. Gibson posted a 2.63 ERA in 54 ⅔ innings during a surprisingly good rookie season, serving as the lone reliable left-hander in the Marlins bullpen for much of 2025. 🔷 The Beloit Sky Carp announced the "Eerie Wearies" as a new alternate identity. They'll wear special uniforms for their Wednesday home games in 2026. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Toronto Blue Jays have an opportunity to clinch the 2025 World Series title tonight. Kevin Gausman will get the start for Game 6, while the Los Angeles Dodgers are countering with Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Two more managerial vacancies have been filled in recent days. Former Pittsburgh Pirates skipper Derek Shelton will take over the Minnesota Twins and the Washington Nationals are going with Blake Butera, who had been working in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. At age 33, Butera will be the youngest person to serve as a major league manager since 1972. Marlins podcast episodes
-
Should the Marlins entertain a reunion with Luis Arraez?
Ely Sussman replied to Kevin Barral's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
I saw somebody make an interesting point about Gleyber Torres and how a lot of his defensive issues at 2B happen on plays when he's moving to his right. At 3B, there are very few of those plays. It'd be bold to bring in a sizable free agent and move him to a new position based on something like that, but wanted to at least throw it out there. -
Should the Marlins entertain a reunion with Luis Arraez?
Ely Sussman replied to Kevin Barral's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
I respect that Stowers was named a Gold Glove finalist, but I think Conine is an even better defensive outfielder overall. Also, Stowers had a little bit of first base experience in college summer ball. I would look at him as the more logical candidate to switch positions. -
Should the Marlins entertain a reunion with Luis Arraez?
Ely Sussman replied to Kevin Barral's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
He has an extremely weird free agent case. I'm predicting that he'll have to settle for a short-term deal, but all it takes is one team to change the market. -
Should the Marlins entertain a reunion with Luis Arraez?
Ely Sussman replied to Kevin Barral's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
It's been clear that Bendix has very little belief in Johnston. I actually have a theory that the decision to platoon him so strictly was about doing everything possible to inflate his numbers so he can be traded this offseason for something of value. Unfortunately not seeing a scenario where Johnston gets a fair shot to prove himself as a regular big leaguer here, even if he's still with the organization next season. -
I had trouble deciding for myself, so I'm leaning on the wisdom of the crowd. If the Miami Marlins traded them right now, would they get more in return for Braxton Garrett or Max Meyer? Garrett missed all of 2025 due to elbow surgery. Entering his age-28 season, he has three remaining years of club control and one remaining minor league option. Meyer missed most of 2025 due to hip surgery. Entering his age-27 season, he has four remaining years of club control and two remaining minor league options.
-
The 2025 season was a step forward for the Miami Marlins. They finished with a 79-83 record, improving by 17 wins from the prior year despite one of the youngest rosters in Major League Baseball. Entering the 2025-26 offseason with ample payroll flexibility and a genuine belief that they're close to a playoff berth, the coming months will be very intriguing to follow. This guide provides a comprehensive overview of the Marlins' offseason, highlighting key dates and events. It includes details on free agency, the Winter Meetings, the MLB Draft Lottery, the salary arbitration process and more. To view the current Marlins 40-man roster, view our roster page, updated nightly. Click any link below to jump to an explanation of that event/date. 2026 Offseason Dates & Calendar Immediately after the World Series: Eligible players become free agents, trade market opens November 6: Contractual options due, qualifying offers due, league-wide free agency opens November 10-13: General Manager Meetings November 18: Rule 5 draft protection deadline November 21: Non-tender deadline December TBA: Announcement of Competitive Balance picks December 7-10: Winter Meetings MLB Draft Lottery Rule 5 draft December 15: Closing of 2025 international signing period Mid-January: Arbitration agreement deadline January 15: Opening of 2026 international signing period Late January: BBWAA Hall of Fame announcement Late January-early February: Arbitration hearings February 7: Marlins FanFest Mid-February: Spring training begins Late February: First spring training game March 4-17: World Baseball Classic March 25: MLB Opening Night (Yankees @ Giants) March 26: Opening Day (Rockies @ Marlins) World Series The 2025 World Series will conclude on Saturday, November 1. The offseason officially begins the moment the final out of the World Series is recorded. Players on expiring contracts immediately become free agents, though certain restrictions apply in the first few days that will be detailed later. The day after the World Series ends, teams can resume making trades for the first time since the midseason deadline, marking the official start of the MLB offseason. 5 days after the World Series Free agency As the offseason begins, free agents are permitted to negotiate exclusively with their most recent team for a five-day period. That window will close on November 6, after which point they are free to engage with all 30 MLB clubs. The Marlins are one of the few teams who don't have any players slated to reach MLB free agency following the 2025 season. Qualifying offers Qualifying offers (QO) must be issued within five days of the World Series’ conclusion. The value of the QO changes annually, as it’s based on the average salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players from the previous season. For the upcoming offseason, that figure will be $22.05 million. To be eligible, a player must have spent the entire previous season with one club and must never have previously received a qualifying offer. Players who receive a QO have 14 days to decide whether or not to accept it. If a player declines a QO and signs elsewhere, their former team receives draft-pick compensation. The specifics of that compensation depend on factors such as the team’s market size, revenue-sharing status and the value of the player’s new contract. The Marlins have never extended a qualifying offer to a free agent before and they won't be doing so this offseason. General Manager Meetings Roughly a week after the World Series concludes, all 30 MLB front office leaders gather for meetings to discuss league business and key offseason matters. While these sessions don’t typically draw much attention from fans, they often help establish the groundwork for trades and other transactions that take place later in the winter. The 2025 GM Meetings will be held from November 10-13 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix is expected to attend. Rule 5 draft protection The Rule 5 draft takes place each winter (with the exception of 2020) and gives teams a chance to acquire unprotected talent from other organizations. Under Rule 5 rules, players who signed at age 18 or younger must be protected within five seasons, while those who signed at age 19 or older must be protected within four seasons. Teams protect these players by adding them to the 40-man roster, which can be a challenge in years when roster space is limited. For the Marlins, several prospects will be under consideration for protection ahead of the November 18 deadline (6:00 p.m. ET) to avoid exposure in this year’s Rule 5 draft, which is scheduled for December 10. That group includes Joe Mack, Josh White, William Kempner, Andrew Pintar and Jacob Berry. Non-tender deadline & arbitration Players with between three and six years of MLB service time automatically qualify for salary arbitration. There’s also the Super Two designation, which allows a select group of players with just under three years of service to become eligible as well. Arbitration gives players still under team control a chance to argue for compensation that they feel reflects their on-field performance. If a team believes a player’s projected arbitration salary exceeds their value, they can non-tender the player instead of offering a contract. Although arbitration eligibility depends on service time, any player with fewer than six years in the majors can technically be non-tendered. Doing so immediately makes them a free agent, while also freeing up a spot on the 40-man roster. Teams have until the November 21 tender deadline to decide whether to offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Once tendered, the two sides can continue negotiating a salary until mid-January. If no agreement is reached, the case proceeds to an arbitration hearing, where both sides submit salary figures, and a neutral arbitrator selects one. The arbitrator’s ruling is final and the player is paid that amount for the upcoming season. Arbitration-eligible Marlins for 2026 (salary projections in parentheses) Edward Cabrera ($3.7M) Anthony Bender ($2.3M) Calvin Faucher ($1.9M) Braxton Garrett ($1.53M) Ryan Weathers ($1.5M) Max Meyer ($1.3M) Andrew Nardi ($800k) Competitive Balance draft picks Each offseason, Major League Baseball announces the Competitive Balance draft picks, which are designed to help smaller-market and lower-revenue teams maintain competitive balance across the league. These picks were first introduced in 2012 and are awarded annually based on a formula that considers a club’s market size, revenue and winning percentage. Eligible teams are assigned to one of two rounds: Round A, which takes place between the first and second rounds of the MLB Draft; and Round B, which falls after the second round but before the third. In addition to the extra pick, teams receiving a Competitive Balance selection also get a slightly larger international bonus pool to use during the international signing period. In 2025, for example, the Marlins used their Competitive Balance Round A pick to select outfielder Cam Cannarella. Unlike other draft selections, Competitive Balance picks can be traded once, though they cannot be exchanged solely for cash considerations. Winter Meetings Each December, high-ranking executives from all 30 organizations, along with agents, players and media members, gather for the MLB Winter Meetings, a four-day event that serves as the centerpiece of the offseason. This year’s meetings will take place in Orlando, Florida, from December 7-10. The Winter Meetings are where the bulk of offseason business takes shape. Trades, free agent signings, and major rumors often dominate the headlines during this stretch. Juan Soto stole the spotlight last year after signing a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets. He was joined in the headlines that week by Max Fried, who signed with the New York Yankees, and Garrett Crochet, who was traded to the Boston Red Sox. If there is one point on the calendar when the most MLB transactions are likely to occur, this is it. In addition to roster moves, both the MLB Draft Lottery and the Rule 5 draft take place during the Winter Meetings, adding even more intrigue to one of baseball’s busiest weeks of the year. Fish On First will once again be providing in-person coverage. MLB Draft Lottery (December 9 at 4:00 p.m. ET) In 2023, Major League Baseball introduced a draft lottery system designed to discourage teams from intentionally losing games to secure higher draft positions. Under this system, all clubs that miss the postseason are assigned odds to land one of the top six picks in the following year’s draft. The teams with the worst regular-season records still have the best odds, but the process now includes an element of chance rather than relying solely on reverse standings. The Marlins entered the 2025 draft lottery with the second-highest odds of winning it, but they caught an unlucky break and were awarded the seventh overall pick. This time around, they have a 1.85% chance of winning—those are the ninth-highest odds. Due to anti-tanking restrictions, both the Rockies and Nationals are ineligible to select within the top ten, which pushes the Marlins' odds higher than they would've been otherwise. The order of the postseason teams in the draft is determined by when they get eliminated, revenue-sharing status, and then winning percentages. Those 12 teams will choose in the following order: Wild Card Series losers, Division Series losers, Championship Series losers, World Series losers, World Series winners. Within each of those groups, clubs will be sorted by revenue-sharing status, with payee clubs selecting before non-payee clubs. Rule 5 draft (December 10 at 2:00 p.m. ET) Players who were not added to the 40-man roster by the Rule 5 protection deadline can be selected by another organization during the major league phase of the draft for a $100,000 fee. Teams are only allowed to make selections during the major league phase if they have openings on their 40-man roster. Any player drafted must remain on the selecting team’s active roster (or the MLB injured list) for the entire season. If the player is designated for assignment and clears waivers, they must be offered back to their original team for $50,000. While Rule 5 selections rarely become stars, some develop into useful role players, such as the Marlins' 2024 selection, Liam Hicks. The draft order is determined by the previous season's reverse standings, so the Marlins will pick 12th. International signing period The next international signing period begins on January 15, marking one of the most important avenues for MLB organizations to acquire young talent from around the world. Most of these signings come from Latin America, though teams also scout and sign players from Asia and other regions. During this window, clubs can reach agreements with foreign players who are 16 years or older. The range of signing bonuses varies widely. For instance, Eury Pérez signed with the Marlins for just $200,000 in 2019 and has emerged as one of the best talented pitchers in baseball, while highly touted prospects such as Jose Salas, who signed for $2.8 million that same year, never panned out. These examples show how unpredictable this market can be. Each team operates under a hard spending cap, and this year, the Marlins have $7,357,100 available in their bonus pool. Bonuses of $10,000 or less do not count against that total. Many of these deals are informally agreed upon well in advance, as teams scout and build relationships with players years before they are eligible to sign. The majority of the 2026 international signings will be announced on the very first day of the signing period, though the signing period officially runs through December 15. BBWAA Hall of Fame announcement Every January, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) announces its voting results for the newest class of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Players become eligible five years after retirement and can remain on the ballot for up to ten years, provided they continue to receive at least five percent of the vote each cycle. Earning election requires appearing on 75 percent of submitted ballots. If a player falls below the five-percent threshold, they are removed from future ballots and can only be reconsidered later by one of the Hall’s era-based committees. This year’s ballot lacks top-end HOF candidates but still showcases several notable names, including Cole Hamels and Ryan Braun, who are making their first appearance, and Manny Ramírez, who is entering his final year of eligibility. Marlins FanFest Marlins FanFest is an annual event hosted by the Marlins at loanDepot park in Miami. It serves as a kickoff for the season, featuring player meet-and-greets, autograph opportunities, interactive games and activities for all ages, discounted merchandise and team leadership appearances. FanFest traditionally takes place on the final Saturday prior to pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training. Spring training Marlins pitchers and catchers will report to Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium in mid-February, with position players arriving a few days later to begin full-squad workouts. Spring training games will begin shortly after and continue for about a month as the team prepares for the regular season. The Marlins play in the Grapefruit League along with the other MLB teams who hold spring training in Florida. Due to the proximity of their spring facilities, Miami's most frequent opponents are the St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals, Houston Astros and New York Mets. Dates for the Marlins’ first game and MLB’s Spring Breakout have not yet been announced, but both are expected to take place in the usual February/March timeframes. Spring Breakout will once again showcase each club’s top prospects in special exhibition matchups against other organizations’ best young talent. The 2026 MLB regular season will officially begin on March 25, when the New York Yankees face the San Francisco Giants on Opening Night. Unlike the past few seasons, there will be no international series to open the year, with all games beginning in North America. Every team, including the Marlins, will open its season the following day as baseball returns in full force. World Baseball Classic As was the case in 2023, loanDepot park has again been selected to host games during every round of the World Baseball Classic. The tournament overlaps with the second half of spring training. Pool D—comprised of the Dominican Republic, Israel, Netherlands, Nicaragua and Venezuela—will run from March 6-11, with the top two teams advancing to the quarterfinals. The quarterfinal games will be March 13-14, the semifinal games will be March 15-16, and the championship game will be held on March 17. Current Marlins players Sandy Alcantara (Dominican Republic) and Otto Lopez (Canada) have prior WBC experience.
-
2025-26 fall/winter ball updates on Marlins players
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
At least for my account, it is being offered the same way as last year directly through MLB. If you scroll far down on this page for the "Dominican Winter League" section, it should have direct links to all live games.- 5 replies
-
- griffin conine
- starlyn caba
- (and 8 more)
-
Happy Halloween! On Thursday in fall/winter ball, Starlyn Caba went 3-for-5, extending his on-base streak to 12 games. PJ Morlando went 0-for-1 with a walk and Fenwick Trimble went 1-for-4. Morlando exited the game early after making a diving catch in right field. The Mesa Solar Sox won, 6-4. Maximo Acosta (Venezuela) went 0-for-4 with a walk. On defense, he started a 5-4-3 triple play. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 1-for-5 with a walk. Only 146 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 Did you know that the Fish On First website has a section dedicated to guides and resources? I just published a comprehensive guide to the Marlins offseason schedule and updated our pre-existing Marlins ownership history guide to include the 2025 season. 🔷 I had trouble deciding for myself whether Braxton Garrett or Max Meyer had the higher current trade value, so I created a poll about it. Voting remains open through the end of the day. 🔷 MLB Trade Rumors reported that this offseason's "Super Two" cutoff to determine arbitration eligibility is expected to be approximately two years and 140 days of service time. It was already assumed, but this just confirms that Max Meyer (2.166) and Calvin Faucher (2.156) will comfortably clear the cutoff and be arb-eligible for the first time. 🔷 Blending ESPN's Relative Power Index, Baseball-Reference's Pythagorean Luck and TeamRankings' Luck Ratings, Rotowire deemed the Marlins to be MLB's luckiest team of 2025. 🔷 In an interview with Locked On Marlins (embedded below), Cade Gibson says that the New York Mets were interested in him had the Marlins not selected him in the 10th round of the 2022 draft. He credited the Marlins with adding a sweeper to his arsenal last spring, and Triple-A Jacksonville pitching coach Rob Marcello Jr. with tweaking his changeup grip. Gibson posted a 2.63 ERA in 54 ⅔ innings during a surprisingly good rookie season, serving as the lone reliable left-hander in the Marlins bullpen for much of 2025. 🔷 The Beloit Sky Carp announced the "Eerie Wearies" as a new alternate identity. They'll wear special uniforms for their Wednesday home games in 2026. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Toronto Blue Jays have an opportunity to clinch the 2025 World Series title tonight. Kevin Gausman will get the start for Game 6, while the Los Angeles Dodgers are countering with Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Two more managerial vacancies have been filled in recent days. Former Pittsburgh Pirates skipper Derek Shelton will take over the Minnesota Twins and the Washington Nationals are going with Blake Butera, who had been working in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. At age 33, Butera will be the youngest person to serve as a major league manager since 1972. Marlins podcast episodes View full article
-
We are closing in on the sixth anniversary of the most recent trade between the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals. It's one of the longest active "trade droughts" involving the Marlins and another MLB franchise, and I don't expect it to continue much longer. There has been a leadership change in the Cardinals front office entering the 2025-26 offseason, with Chaim Bloom replacing John Mozeliak as president of baseball operations. You may remember Bloom from his stint running the Boston Red Sox, but way before that, he got his start with the Tampa Bay Rays. Bloom gradually climbed the ranks from Rays intern to one of their top executives, a career path later emulated by Peter Bendix. For more than a decade (2009-2019), their tenures in Tampa Bay overlapped. Bendix is now Miami's POBO. If there is an opportunity for the Marlins and Cardinals to link up on a mutually beneficial deal moving forward, their decision-makers should be able to work together harmoniously. In Bloom's own words, "our top priority will be to build our talent base for the long term" (h/t Katie Woo, The Athletic). In Bendix's own words, "this offseason's gonna be about trying to find ways to improve our club" after posting a 79-83 record in 2025. Allow me to present one hypothetical trade that would satisfy both objectives. Marlins get: OF/1B Alec Burleson, LHP JoJo Romero, 3B Nolan Arenado and $7 million cash Cardinals get: INF/OF Andrew Salas, RHP Eliazar Dishmey, OF Victor Mesa Jr. and RHP Adam Mazur While Nolan Arenado is the most recognizable face in this deal (much more on him shortly), Alec Burleson is the real centerpiece. Burleson has steadily improved at the plate during his MLB career, from a 56 wRC+ in 2022 to a 89 wRC+ in 2023 to a 106 wRC+ in 2024 to a 124 wRC+ in 2025. Specifically from May 2025 onward, he was one of the most consistent hitters in baseball. And that was only his age-26 campaign—there could still be more meat left on the bone. If nothing else, you can bank on Burleson making contact as he perennially ranks in the 80th percentile or above among MLB hitters in whiff rate. He previously had some trouble barreling up breaking balls, but that turned around this season with a .512 slugging percentage and 92.2 mph average exit velocity against them. The Cardinals tried to develop Burleson as an outfielder, but he continues to be a mediocre defender in both corners. He's usable there in emergencies, but the Marlins are well-situated as it is with Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee atop their outfield depth chart and a handful of intriguing in-house options to complement them. With his new organization, Burleson would focus fully on first base, a position where the Marlins have been multiple wins below league average (in terms of WAA) during each of the last four seasons. Burleson is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to earn approximately $3.5 million entering his first year of arbitration eligibility. He'll remain under club control through 2028 via arbitration. Surely some of you readers will suggest that the Marlins hoard their prospects and just address first base via free agency. Ryan O'Hearn, in particular, has a similar skill set and recent track record...except he's five and a half years older than Burleson. The few "better" players on the FA market will be prohibitively expensive for the Fish. Burleson is the right fit for them. JoJo Romero is also coming off a career year. He posted a 2.07 ERA in 61 innings pitched, and that doesn't even account for his brilliant knack for stranding inherited baserunners (only three of 26 inherited runners scored). Romero's slider has been a plus pitch throughout his Cardinals tenure and it continues to be his main putaway pitch. He had 33 strikeouts and zero home runs allowed in 106 plate appearances ending with sliders this season. d958f234-c73d7476-3c56f5a1-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4 The 2025 Marlins never had a balanced bullpen and it repeatedly burned them. Rookie Cade Gibson rose from obscurity to provide one source of competence from the left side, but even he had big reverse platoon splits. Unfortunately, you can't place any expectations on Andrew Nardi in his attempt to return from a year-long, potentially career-altering back injury. Reinforcements are needed. Romero's projected arb salary is $4.4 million, then he'll be eligible for free agency. Relievers are always in high demand at the trade deadline, so if for whatever reason, the Marlins regress next season and reluctantly sell at the deadline, at least they should be able to recoup some of the prospect capital that they originally gave up to acquire the 29-year-old. This brings us to the future Hall of Famer Arenado, who was already traded once in his career when his contract was perceived to be underwater. He finds himself in that awkward predicament yet again. He trudged through the worst season of his career at age 34, setting new lows in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage while also spending a quarter of the season on the injured list with a right shoulder strain. The Cardinals owe him $22 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027; the Colorado Rockies are paying him an additional $5 million in '26, though that is only relevant to his bank account, not his current market value. Both Arenado and the Cardinals have spoken candidly about his imminent departure from St. Louis. Although he has full no-trade protection, that isn't expected to be an obstacle like it was last winter. In the same way that development isn't always linear, the same applies to decline. A new environment can reinvigorate a frustrated veteran, as could new coaches. The Marlins staff puts an emphasis on swing decisions and it'd be fascinating to see how their messaging is received by the typically aggressive Arenado (16th percentile in chase rate this season). If he's determined to extend his career into his late 30s, he'll be open-minded. This might be 2023 Yuli Gurriel all over again—a slick-fielding contact hitter who is invaluable in the clubhouse, but too power-deficient to start regularly at a corner infield spot. In that case, the Marlins have Graham Pauley, Connor Norby and Maximo Acosta eager to prove themselves. Yes, financial relief is a factor from the Cardinals' perspective, but they aren't desperate enough to accept a package of lottery ticket types. They will insist on covering some of Arenado's contract in order to get talent with the upside to actually help them win games in future seasons. I think a reasonable compromise is paying down his 2026 salary to match his 2027 salary at $15 million apiece, leaving the Marlins on the hook for $30 million total. Andrew Salas (#6 on the Fish On First Top 30) spent his entire age-17 season with Low-A Jupiter, making him the youngest player in any organization to get a full season of Low-A reps this year. Salas slashed .186/.319/.245 with 39 stolen bases in 104 games, showing clear signs of fatigue toward the very end. Unconventionally, the Marlins rotated him between six different defensive positions, most frequently center field and shortstop. His long-term success will hinge on adding more strength and attacking pitches earlier in counts. Eliazar Dishmey (FOF #15) is a likely big league arm with a mid-rotation ceiling. He commands his sinker well at the bottom of the strike zone and generates whiffs with both his changeup and sweeper. He excelled in his first taste of High-A (2.19 ERA and 2.07 FIP in 24.2 IP). Dishmey just turned 21 on Saturday. He'll be Rule 5 draft-eligible after the 2026 season. TzAwQjlfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmdaWlVWWU1Vd1FBQ0ZZR1VBQUVBUUJWQUZFRlV3SUFWRlVOVTFjRUFBUUJCd0lI.mp4 The clock is ticking on both Victor Mesa Jr. and Adam Mazur, who would be more useful to the Cardinals than the Marlins given the latter's surplus of outfielders and rotation candidates. Mesa is a .272/.335/.456 hitter with 20 homers and nine steals in 122 Triple-A games, but his progress has been hindered by various injuries. Mazur has struggled to the tune of a 6.22 ERA and 5.60 FIP in 14 career MLB starts despite good control because of his lack of a reliable putaway pitch. They each have one minor league option left. Even accounting for the money owed to Burleson, Romero and Arenado in 2026, the Marlins would be projected for a bottom five MLB payroll. They must consider making other sensible additions to maximize their postseason chances. But let this proposal serve as a reminder that the Marlins are not limited to the universe of players on the free agent market. In relatively short order since Peter Bendix's arrival, they've built a deep organization, and that can be leveraged to get creative trades done this offseason. View full article
- 8 replies
-
- andrew salas
- adam mazur
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
We are closing in on the sixth anniversary of the most recent trade between the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals. It's one of the longest active "trade droughts" involving the Marlins and another MLB franchise, and I don't expect it to continue much longer. There has been a leadership change in the Cardinals front office entering the 2025-26 offseason, with Chaim Bloom replacing John Mozeliak as president of baseball operations. You may remember Bloom from his stint running the Boston Red Sox, but way before that, he got his start with the Tampa Bay Rays. Bloom gradually climbed the ranks from Rays intern to one of their top executives, a career path later emulated by Peter Bendix. For more than a decade (2009-2019), their tenures in Tampa Bay overlapped. Bendix is now Miami's POBO. If there is an opportunity for the Marlins and Cardinals to link up on a mutually beneficial deal moving forward, their decision-makers should be able to work together harmoniously. In Bloom's own words, "our top priority will be to build our talent base for the long term" (h/t Katie Woo, The Athletic). In Bendix's own words, "this offseason's gonna be about trying to find ways to improve our club" after posting a 79-83 record in 2025. Allow me to present one hypothetical trade that would satisfy both objectives. Marlins get: OF/1B Alec Burleson, LHP JoJo Romero, 3B Nolan Arenado and $7 million cash Cardinals get: INF/OF Andrew Salas, RHP Eliazar Dishmey, OF Victor Mesa Jr. and RHP Adam Mazur While Nolan Arenado is the most recognizable face in this deal (much more on him shortly), Alec Burleson is the real centerpiece. Burleson has steadily improved at the plate during his MLB career, from a 56 wRC+ in 2022 to a 89 wRC+ in 2023 to a 106 wRC+ in 2024 to a 124 wRC+ in 2025. Specifically from May 2025 onward, he was one of the most consistent hitters in baseball. And that was only his age-26 campaign—there could still be more meat left on the bone. If nothing else, you can bank on Burleson making contact as he perennially ranks in the 80th percentile or above among MLB hitters in whiff rate. He previously had some trouble barreling up breaking balls, but that turned around this season with a .512 slugging percentage and 92.2 mph average exit velocity against them. The Cardinals tried to develop Burleson as an outfielder, but he continues to be a mediocre defender in both corners. He's usable there in emergencies, but the Marlins are well-situated as it is with Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee atop their outfield depth chart and a handful of intriguing in-house options to complement them. With his new organization, Burleson would focus fully on first base, a position where the Marlins have been multiple wins below league average (in terms of WAA) during each of the last four seasons. Burleson is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to earn approximately $3.5 million entering his first year of arbitration eligibility. He'll remain under club control through 2028 via arbitration. Surely some of you readers will suggest that the Marlins hoard their prospects and just address first base via free agency. Ryan O'Hearn, in particular, has a similar skill set and recent track record...except he's five and a half years older than Burleson. The few "better" players on the FA market will be prohibitively expensive for the Fish. Burleson is the right fit for them. JoJo Romero is also coming off a career year. He posted a 2.07 ERA in 61 innings pitched, and that doesn't even account for his brilliant knack for stranding inherited baserunners (only three of 26 inherited runners scored). Romero's slider has been a plus pitch throughout his Cardinals tenure and it continues to be his main putaway pitch. He had 33 strikeouts and zero home runs allowed in 106 plate appearances ending with sliders this season. d958f234-c73d7476-3c56f5a1-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4 The 2025 Marlins never had a balanced bullpen and it repeatedly burned them. Rookie Cade Gibson rose from obscurity to provide one source of competence from the left side, but even he had big reverse platoon splits. Unfortunately, you can't place any expectations on Andrew Nardi in his attempt to return from a year-long, potentially career-altering back injury. Reinforcements are needed. Romero's projected arb salary is $4.4 million, then he'll be eligible for free agency. Relievers are always in high demand at the trade deadline, so if for whatever reason, the Marlins regress next season and reluctantly sell at the deadline, at least they should be able to recoup some of the prospect capital that they originally gave up to acquire the 29-year-old. This brings us to the future Hall of Famer Arenado, who was already traded once in his career when his contract was perceived to be underwater. He finds himself in that awkward predicament yet again. He trudged through the worst season of his career at age 34, setting new lows in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage while also spending a quarter of the season on the injured list with a right shoulder strain. The Cardinals owe him $22 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027; the Colorado Rockies are paying him an additional $5 million in '26, though that is only relevant to his bank account, not his current market value. Both Arenado and the Cardinals have spoken candidly about his imminent departure from St. Louis. Although he has full no-trade protection, that isn't expected to be an obstacle like it was last winter. In the same way that development isn't always linear, the same applies to decline. A new environment can reinvigorate a frustrated veteran, as could new coaches. The Marlins staff puts an emphasis on swing decisions and it'd be fascinating to see how their messaging is received by the typically aggressive Arenado (16th percentile in chase rate this season). If he's determined to extend his career into his late 30s, he'll be open-minded. This might be 2023 Yuli Gurriel all over again—a slick-fielding contact hitter who is invaluable in the clubhouse, but too power-deficient to start regularly at a corner infield spot. In that case, the Marlins have Graham Pauley, Connor Norby and Maximo Acosta eager to prove themselves. Yes, financial relief is a factor from the Cardinals' perspective, but they aren't desperate enough to accept a package of lottery ticket types. They will insist on covering some of Arenado's contract in order to get talent with the upside to actually help them win games in future seasons. I think a reasonable compromise is paying down his 2026 salary to match his 2027 salary at $15 million apiece, leaving the Marlins on the hook for $30 million total. Andrew Salas (#6 on the Fish On First Top 30) spent his entire age-17 season with Low-A Jupiter, making him the youngest player in any organization to get a full season of Low-A reps this year. Salas slashed .186/.319/.245 with 39 stolen bases in 104 games, showing clear signs of fatigue toward the very end. Unconventionally, the Marlins rotated him between six different defensive positions, most frequently center field and shortstop. His long-term success will hinge on adding more strength and attacking pitches earlier in counts. Eliazar Dishmey (FOF #15) is a likely big league arm with a mid-rotation ceiling. He commands his sinker well at the bottom of the strike zone and generates whiffs with both his changeup and sweeper. He excelled in his first taste of High-A (2.19 ERA and 2.07 FIP in 24.2 IP). Dishmey just turned 21 on Saturday. He'll be Rule 5 draft-eligible after the 2026 season. TzAwQjlfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmdaWlVWWU1Vd1FBQ0ZZR1VBQUVBUUJWQUZFRlV3SUFWRlVOVTFjRUFBUUJCd0lI.mp4 The clock is ticking on both Victor Mesa Jr. and Adam Mazur, who would be more useful to the Cardinals than the Marlins given the latter's surplus of outfielders and rotation candidates. Mesa is a .272/.335/.456 hitter with 20 homers and nine steals in 122 Triple-A games, but his progress has been hindered by various injuries. Mazur has struggled to the tune of a 6.22 ERA and 5.60 FIP in 14 career MLB starts despite good control because of his lack of a reliable putaway pitch. They each have one minor league option left. Even accounting for the money owed to Burleson, Romero and Arenado in 2026, the Marlins would be projected for a bottom five MLB payroll. They must consider making other sensible additions to maximize their postseason chances. But let this proposal serve as a reminder that the Marlins are not limited to the universe of players on the free agent market. In relatively short order since Peter Bendix's arrival, they've built a deep organization, and that can be leveraged to get creative trades done this offseason.
- 8 comments
-
- andrew salas
- adam mazur
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Around this time last year, the Miami Marlins selected Jared Serna, Deyvison De Los Santos and Dax Fulton to their 40-man roster to protect them from the upcoming Rule 5 draft. Doing so was a testament to both their perceived talent and major league readiness—it is difficult to navigate an entire MLB season when you're devoting 40-man spots to players who can't contribute yet. As it turns out, none of those prospects played for the Marlins in 2025, nor did they come close to earning an opportunity. Serna endured a particularly disappointing season. Ranked sixth on the Fish On First Top 30 at the time of his 40-man selection, he has since plummeted to 24th after slashing .224/.310/.279 with only three home runs and a 79 wRC+ in 111 upper-minors games. He frequently made contact, just not with much impact. His defense at shortstop and baserunning were merely okay. Very quietly, Serna found consistency at the end of his age-23 campaign. He reached base safely in each of his last 23 MiLB regular season games, posting a 125 wRC+ during that span. He also helped the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp to a Triple-A national championship by going 6-for-16 with two stolen bases during their playoff run. Serna had three weeks to rest between the Jumbo Shrimp's title clinch and the start of the 2025-26 Mexican Pacific Winter League season. He has picked up exactly where he left off (and then some). Entering Sunday, Serna is slashing .400/.514/.633 in nine games played for Charros de Jalisco. His 1.147 OPS is fourth-best in the entire league. The Guaymas native batted eighth in the Jalisco lineup when making his first start of the season on October 17, but this torrid stretch has propelled him to the very top of the order. Keep in mind, Serna is 6.2 years younger than the weighted average age of all hitters in the league, according to Baseball-Reference. One major caveat applies. Jalisco's home ballpark, Estadio Panamericano, is somewhat comparable to Major League Baseball's Coors Field. It's in the city of Zapopan, which is situated nearly a mile above sea level (5,154 ft), allowing batted balls to carry farther than they would have under neutral conditions. To counteract that, Estadio Panamericano has big dimensions—335 feet down both foul lines and 415 feet to straightaway center field. But that means outfielders have a ton of ground to cover. During his five years of winter ball experience (all of them with Jalisco), Serna has a career .358 batting average on balls in play. For context, his career BABIP in the minors is only .289. After leading their league in runs scored in both 2023-24 and 2024-25, Jalisco is tied for first in that category again this season. Marlins fans have seen firsthand how being used out of position can disrupt all aspects of a player's game, but Serna is seemingly unfazed. He's been a full-time middle infielder over the past two seasons when playing affiliated ball. However, Jalisco is mostly deploying him in the outfield, including four consecutive starts in center where he had never previously started in a professional game. From what I have observed, Serna has good range as an outfielder, composure when playing balls off the wall and decent throwing accuracy. His main challenge is compensating for below-average arm strength. merge-knyxk4.mp4 Although defensive versatility is always a positive, the Marlins organization is currently deeper in the outfield than the infield. This experiment doesn't expedite his call-up timeline. For Serna to revitalize his prospect stock this winter, it comes down to continuing to make smart swing decisions and demonstrating that he can slug in Jalisco's road games.

