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  • Maybe previous Marlins regime was competent at drafting after all

    This was, by any measure, a good year for the Marlins farm system, largely thanks to prospects who were already in the system when Peter Bendix arrived.

    Ely Sussman
    Image courtesy of Miami Marlins

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    The Miami Marlins farm system was universally ranked among Major League Baseball's worst at the end of the 2023 season when Peter Bendix took over the franchise's baseball operations. Before Bendix's hiring was even finalized, the Marlins parted ways with DJ Svihlik, who had orchestrated their previous five MLB Draft classes as director of amateur scouting.

    According to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, principal owner Bruce Sherman "wanted to replace Svihlik because Marlins' draft hasn't produced much with position players." Two years later, it remains true that those players have made practically zero impact at the major league level. The only Miami amateur draftees to swing a bat for the 2025 Marlins have been Nick Fortes and Troy Johnston, who have combined for less than one win above replacement. It's been a similar story on the mound, with four pitchers drafted and developed by the organization combining for a 4.91 ERA in 144 ⅔ innings.

    However, the seeds that Svihlik planted are poised to bear much more fruit in 2026—on both sides of the ball. Although it has become increasingly common around the sport for top prospects to be fast-tracked through the minor leagues, let this serve as a reminder that in the vast majority of cases, several years of patience are needed to render a verdict on a homegrown player.

    Catcher Joe Mack and outfielder Kemp Alderman were drafted in 2021 and 2023, respectively. They both performed very poorly at the plate during the summer of '23, so much so that they briefly slipped out of the Fish On First Top 30 the following year. They have since made the proper mechanical and approach adjustments. With the annual Marlins minor league awards presentation looming next week, 2025 Player of the Year honors are all but certain to go to one of them.

    Combining elite defense with above-average power, Mack has blossomed into the best all-around catching prospect that the Marlins have had in at least a decade (J.T. Realmuto), if not three decades (Charles Johnson). He is currently ranked 42nd on Baseball America's Top 100 list and destined to move up a handful of spots in October once the list updates to account for players who recently graduated from prospect eligibility.

    Alderman spent most of the season starring for Double-A Pensacola, and he hasn't slowed down one bit since being promoted to Jacksonville. He enters Wednesday with a .291/.322/.673 slash line and 154 wRC+ in 14 Jumbo Shrimp games. Alderman's 57.9 HardHit% against Triple-A competition is a top-10 mark among all players with at least 50 AAA plate appearances, edging out the likes of Roman Anthony (57.6%), Samuel Basallo (57.4%) and Nick Kurtz (56.7%).

    In 2023, the Marlins made a big bet on a prep left-hander from a cold-weather state and it has paid off handsomely. Thomas White was already a consensus Top 100 talent entering 2025; once next spring training rolls around, he may be the consensus No. 1 lefty in the minors. With one regular season start still to come, White has posted a 2.33 ERA and 38.5% strikeout rate in 85 innings pitched.

    Karson Milbrandt, Miami's third-rounder in 2022, just had his most dominant half-season as a pro. It's getting easier to forecast him as an eventual major leaguer.

    The most glaring Marlins draft gaffe during Svihlik's tenure was selecting Jacob Berry with the sixth overall pick in 2022. How could they have possibly gone in that direction when Brooks Lee—another switch-hitting collegiate star, but one with actual defensive aptitude at a premium position—would've signed for comparable money? What an unforced error...right?

    Lee was called up by the Minnesota Twins less than two years after the draft and has accrued 179 MLB games since then. It's been empty calories, though. He is slashing .233/.282/.360 with 18 home runs and six stolen bases, netting out at precisely 0.0 fWAR—hey, that's tied with Berry!

    A couple other notables:

    - Right-hander Josh White (fifth round, 2022) was arguably the best relief pitcher in Minor League Baseball this year. No reliever at any MiLB level with a minimum of 40 innings bested his 1.53 FIP, and White did most of that work at Triple-A. He should be a high-leverage weapon for the 2026 Fish.

    Ryan Ignoffo (20th round, 2023) was the very last draft pick of the Svihlik era. By wRC+, he's been the most productive hitter in the Marlins system during that three-year span while also learning how to catch. Ignoffo likely would have finished this season in Jacksonville if not for a hamstring injury.

     


    On the other hand, plenty of draftees from those years have bombed out of affiliated ball. Mack appears to be the only hope for the class of 2021. It has been a rocky road for Dax Fulton (second round, 2020) coming back from his second career Tommy John surgery to the point that his 40-man roster spot may be in jeopardy during this upcoming offseason. Noble Meyer's stock has gradually faded ever since he was picked atop the 2023 draft.

    Earlier this year, new Marlins director of amateur scouting Frankie Piliere described to Fish On First the harmonious working relationship that he has with Bendix. If Sherman hadn't already dismissed Svihlik, there's a good chance that Bendix would have reached the same decision to handpick his own guy for the position.

    Overall, though, the general perception that Bendix inherited a depleted talent pipeline was an exaggeration. He deserves a lot of credit for revamping the Marlins' approach to player development, leveraging technology in ways that the old front office did not. That can only take you so far. You inevitably need players with loud tools and strong work ethics, and the Marlins had those in house when Bendix showed up.

    Over/Under 24.5 saves for Pete Fairbanks in 2026?

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    Thomas White

    Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp - AAA, LHP
    Through his first two Triple-A starts of the season, Thomas White has struck out nearly half of all batters faced (14 of 29) while allowing only one earned run.

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    I suppose it's an easy or lazy response to long-term competitiveness that low- and mid-revenue teams must concentrate on "drafting and development." Well, sure, but these things aren't AI. They require competent people, the identification and hiring of whom has a whole range of metrics. My beloved Expos were indeed a talent factory (many if whom ended up elsewhere due to the same financial pressures low- revenue teams still face). The people that made it happen don't grow on trees, nor are they easy to lure over. Success, if it comes, means the big teams want the guys, and they are always watching with deep pockets to make it happen. Accordingly, many big FO names made their bones in Montréal, getting their chances, and moving on. This reality will not be mitigated. Until/if MLB has the unlikely cap/floor or similar revamp, low- revenue teams are locked in this narrow reality to compete. I think Bendix and his team, starting with little, have earned a thumbs up. 

    Yes mack looks like a future great catcher along with Thomas white as pitcher. That don’t mean that they haven’t s*** the bed in every draft pretty much since 2018. The entire team is made up of players traded for. Glad there’s someone new at the helm for player development. 

    22 hours ago, Shawn said:

    Yes mack looks like a future great catcher along with Thomas white as pitcher. That don’t mean that they haven’t s*** the bed in every draft pretty much since 2018. The entire team is made up of players traded for. Glad there’s someone new at the helm for player development. 

    read my mind

    As far as the "new regime" goes, dumping Skip Schumacher in favor of Moron McCullough outweighs everything else as far as I'm concerned. And in reality, Bendix is in the dugout too, telling the Moron who to play etc. Bendix kept shoving Wagaman into the lineup, and keeping Troy Johnston on the bench. I bet it was Bendix who told the moron to keep benching Stowers against lefties and is doing much the same with Marsee. The bottom line is that the Marlins are nothing more than a AAAA team, a developmental farm team for the real teams like the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, etc.

    Nah. For every Thomas White the Marlins drafted, there's about a dozen or so Jacob Berrys. DJ Svihlik's tenure is a failure in every conceivable way and there's no sugarcoating it. He single-handedly costed us our contention window from 2020-2024. We were supposed to be a rising playoff contender. Instead, Bendix, the new GM, had no choice but to press the reset button. We couldn't develop any bats. We had to constantly trade from our prospect pool to get bats, and by the time 2024 came around, we had no talent left.



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