Ely Sussman

Marlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's winter ball notes: Playing his first game in the Dominican Republic since being traded to the Marlins, 2B Vidal Bruján went 0-for-1 with three walks and his LIDOM-leading 13th stolen base. CF Dane Myers went 1-for-4. Javier Sanoja made his season debut in Venezuela as a pinch-hitter and left fielder.Thanks to Marlins manager Skip Schumaker for giving us 40-plus minutes of his time on the latest Fish Unfiltered. Although previously reported that Brant Brown had left Miami for Seattle, Schumaker specifies it's because Brown was hired to be their new bench coach (still no official announcement from the Mariners). Our conversation touched on a handful of individual Marlins players, Schumaker's introduction to Peter Bendix and much more. Elsewhere around baseball, the Cardinals added another free agent starting pitcher, Kyle Gibson (1/$11M). This comes on the heels of reuniting with Lance Lynn the day before. The Padres promoted Mike Shildt to be their new manager, filling the last remaining MLB managerial vacancy.Join us tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET for a new edition of Fish On First LIVE on /Twitter/Twitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-popThis week on Big Fish Small Pod, Daniel Rodriguez is doing a series highlighting notable free agents for the Marlins to consider in each position group, continuing with outfielders. Subscribe to Fish On First wherever you get your pods! Please leave us a rating and review.Braxton Garrett joined the to talk about his 2023 season, what's next and how he'll be spending Thanksgiving.Mark Feinsand of MLB.com considers Mitch Garver a logical free agent match for the Marlins.The Baseball America MLB Rule 5 Draft preview highlights Troy Johnston and Nasim Nuñez as possible selections.Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Marlins postseason shares are $10,154 apiece. The deeper a team advances, the larger their share (Rangers personnel got more than half a million bucks).Happy birthday to Peter Pratt. The Locked On Marlins podcast host turns 40 today. You'll notice that I frequently embed his shows in these news roundups. Subscribe to his channel if you don't already! Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

Ely Sussman discusses where things currently stand with the 2024 Miami Marlins payroll following the non-tender deadline (3:30), then takes on the enigma that is Vidal Bruján (16:45). How is it that a former MLB Top 100 prospect with solid contact skills from both sides of the plate continues to flop when given big league opportunities? What would qualify as a successful outcome for Bruján's career moving forward? Subscribe to the Fish On First YouTube channel to watch video versions of every episode of The Offishial Show. As covered in an article on Saturday, the Marlins' projected payroll—just accounting for players currently under club control—is within a couple million dollars of their 2023 Opening Day total. That's with huge holes still remaining at catcher and shortstop plus questionable depth at the corner outfield spots. https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/marlins-payroll-projection-11-18-23/Recently acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, Bruján was critical of himself in a since-deleted Instagram post, saying "I fell short of what I expected from myself and what the organization knows I’m capable of doing." Bruján was widely considered one of the Rays' best prospects when he ascended to the Triple-A level. The Dominican switch-hitter posted above-average offensive numbers during each of his three seasons in Durham with a wRC+ of 111, 117 and 110 in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively (100 represents league average). However, the time Bruján spent with the Rays during those same seasons was an entirely different story. He slashed .157/.218/.221 (28 wRC+) in 99 games played and didn't show marked improvement this past year. Even crediting him for his expected production based on batted ball quality, Bruján's .222 xwOBA is tied for second-lowest among players with at least 250 MLB plate appearances since 2021. StatheadBrújan has been super aggressive swinging at the first pitch (41.9% of the time vs. 29.6% MLB average) and his groundball rate increases when facing top competition (48% in MLB vs. 42% in AAA). His main deficiency is a lack of hard hits. Brújan has "barreled" only four balls in the majors, as defined by Statcast, representing 1.5% of his total plate appearances. The combination of limited bat speed (64.5 mph average in 2023), a small physical build and decent but not special contact skills makes it difficult to envision him reaching his perceived ceiling. All that being said, I approve of this trade from the Marlins' perspective (pending the identity of the player to be named later). Bruján could follow in the footsteps of former Chicago White Sox utility man Leury García, whose early-career production was equally awful before turning a corner at age 26. The downside of the deal is obvious: Bruján is out of minor league options and might not last even a single season in the Marlins organization if he continues to slump so severely. But if something clicks, he still has six years of club control left. Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. Our Fish On First podcast programming includes The Offishial Show, Fish Unfiltered, State of the Fish, Swimming Upstream, Fishology and What a Relief. All new episodes are posted to FishOnFirst.com/podcasts. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Podbean, Megaphone or wherever you normally get your pods from.

Marlins Podcast Episodes Monday's winter ball notes: RF Dane Myers went 1-for-3, but got caught napping off of first base. He was tagged out after turning his back to the action and breaking into a basketball jumpshot celebration of sorts.https://videopress.com/v/BAkhlMtD?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=trueElsewhere around baseball, Reynaldo López (3/$30M) signed with the Braves and Lance Lynn (1/$11M) signed with the Cardinals. Japanese star right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto was posted by MLB and the 45-day window for teams to negotiate with him has officially opened. The 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot has been announced. The former Marlins players on the ballot are Gary Sheffield (10th year of eligibility), Mark Buehrle (fourth) and José Reyes (first). Zack Britton has retired. Britton, who spent his 12-year MLB career with the Orioles and Yankees, peaked in the mid-2010s as arguably the best reliever in the majors.This week on Big Fish Small Pod, Daniel Rodriguez is doing a series highlighting notable free agents for the Marlins to consider in each position group, continuing with infielders. Subscribe to Fish On First wherever you get your pods! Please leave us a rating and review.A reminder that The Offishial Show is back on a weekly schedule, delivering new episodes every Tuesday. My latest show unpacks the enigma that is Vidal Bruján—why has the former top prospect struggled so much with his transition to the majors?Today, Fish On First is conducting an exclusive interview with Skip Schumaker. If you have last-minute questions for the Marlins manager, please comment below.Braxton Garrett is the guest on tonight's Marlins Hot Stove Show.Marlins Historian asks you to select which of the four most famous Marlins-related songs is the best. I'd be surprised if anything other than " " won the poll. Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

Marlins Podcast Episodes Jazz Chisholm Jr. served as "Chant Leader" during Sunday's Miami Dolphins game. Ex-teammate and current free agent Jorge Soler also attended with his family. Elsewhere around baseball, we finally have a big free agent signing as Aaron Nola re-upped with the Phillies on a seven-year, $172 million deal. Nola received a full no-trade clause and doesn't have any opt outs, so get used seeing him face the Fish for many years to come.On a cheaper note, Kevin Barral wrote about Lucas Giolito and Matt Moore as potential Marlins free agent targets.https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/lucas-giolito-free-agency-marlins/https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/matt-moore-free-agency-marlins/This week on Big Fish Small Pod, Daniel Rodriguez is doing a series highlighting notable free agents for the Marlins to consider in each position group, beginning with catchers. Subscribe to Fish On First wherever you get your pods! Please leave us a rating and review.Marlins first base coach Jon Jay interviewed for the Cubs' bench coach job, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. However, the Cubs "have now decided to go in a different direction." For the time being, Brant Brown is the only 2023 Marlins coach to leave the organization.Jolly Olive of Jomboy Media treats us to a montage of Luis Arraez fouling off two-strike pitches that would've easily put away mere mortals.Happy 26th birthday to Marlins C Paul McIntosh. The former undrafted free agent has been one of Miami's best minor league hitters since signing in 2021, slashing .251/.371/.464 with a 122 wRC+. He reached the Triple-A level for the first time this season and figures to once again be a non-roster invitee at big league spring training.Congrats to former Marlins executive Michael Hill and Priscila Fonseca, who got married on Saturday. Marlins IF/C Bennett Hostetler and Taylor Hostetler tied the knot as well.https://www.instagram.com/p/Cz2PxZbOzmo/?hl=enhttps://www.instagram.com/p/Cz2WiMouu16/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins

Whenever one of the top MLB free agents signs with a National League team—particular a team that shares a division with the Miami Marlins—it's worth discussing at Fish On First. Veteran right-hander Aaron Nola is remaining with the Philadelphia Phillies on a seven-year deal, the Phillies confirmed Sunday afternoon. It guarantees Nola $172 million, per multiple reports. USA Today's Bob Nightengale was first to say that an agreement was reached, Jeff Passan of ESPN nailed down the guaranteed dollar amount and Jon Heyman of the New York Post added that there are no opt outs or options in the contract. A homegrown Phillie, Nola broke through to the majors in 2015. He has pitched 150 ⅓ innings against the Marlins during that span, second only to Max Scherzer. That total includes his seven scoreless frames on October 4 in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-10/04/59907702-b43284db-e5217dfb-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Nola receives a $24.6M average annual value despite a lifetime 113 ERA+ and a 102 ERA+ over the last three seasons (100 represents the league average). What stands out most about him is durability. He's been practically injury-free throughout the last six seasons, exceeding 200 innings thrice. That is not totally predictive of how he'll hold up in his 30s, but must have played a role in the length of the deal. The frugal Marlins obviously were not in the mix to sign Nola, but the Atlanta Braves were, according to Passan. Heyman adds that Nola turned down more money from another suitor. It's unclear whether he's referring to the Braves, who ordinarily avoid long-term free agent commitments. Compared to last offseason, the 2023-24 free agent market has been moving slowly. Hopefully Nola's signing causes something of a domino effect, at least among the starting pitchers. Photo by Sam Navarro/Getty Images

The 2023 Major League Baseball season was memorable for its loose correlation between winning percentage and team payroll. The Miami Marlins made the postseason and the similarly thrifty Arizona Diamondbacks advanced all the way to the World Series, outdoing the star-laden New York Mets, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres. The Baltimore Orioles, who were MLB's cheapest team outside of the embarrassing Oakland Athletics, led the American League in victories. That was likely just an outlier, though. Principal owner Bruce Sherman is hopeful that his new president of baseball operations, Peter Bendix, can implement the Tampa Bay Rays' best practices and perennially defy the odds. Bendix obviously won't be able to pull that off in a single winter. If you're rooting for the Marlins to be a postseason threat again in 2024, you're rooting for Sherman to spend money. For this franchise in particular, one with several glaring roster holes to address and thin on desirable prospects to use as trade chips, increased spending will be crucial to bringing in high-end talent. Sherman slashed the Marlins' payroll early in his ownership tenure, but has gradually upped his investment during the post-COVID years. Where do things currently stand as we enter the meaty portion of the offseason? Guaranteed ContractsPhoto by Megan Briggs/Getty ImagesJosh Bell ($16.5M), Avisaíl García ($12M), Sandy Alcantara ($9.3M) and Jon Berti ($3.625M) are already on the books. Bell exercised his player option rather than head back into free agency, so that tells you he feels this salary is higher than he would've gotten elsewhere. García is coming off consecutive seasons of sub-replacement level production while Alcantara is going to miss the entire 2024 season barring a medical miracle. These are significant obstacles for the Marlins front office to work around, no doubt. García and Alcantara are the only Marlins players signed beyond 2024. Arbitration EligiblesThe Marlins entered the offseason with 13 arbitration-eligible players. Jacob Stallings, Garrett Hampson and Jonathan Davis have since been trimmed from that group. The 10 remaining arb-eligible players are projected for a combined $33.9M, per MLB Trade Rumors. Those salaries become fully guaranteed once settled, but we will have to wait until later in the offseason to get those specific figures. Contract BuyoutsBefore Bendix officially arrived, the Marlins made the easy call to decline the 2024 club options for Matt Barnes and Johnny Cueto. Their dismissals still came at a cost, though. Barnes received a $2.75M buyout and Cueto got $2.5M. That $5.25M total counts toward Miami's 2024 spending. Current 2024 Payroll ProjectionThe Marlins are facing a bill of approximately $80.575M for the players mentioned above—with Alcantara going on the injured list, that only fills up half (13) of the spots on the Opening Day 26-man active roster. Let's assume there are no spring training injuries and the other 13 spots are occupied by pre-arb players making an average of $750k each (slightly above the $740k league minimum). That takes this (very conservative) payroll projection to $90.325M. The Marlins began 2023 at $92.575M, according to Cot's Contracts, which was MLB's 23rd-highest payroll. To have comparable success on the field next season, they'll either need to blow past that mark or get much-improved production from the players on their existing roster. Photo by Kevin Barral/Fish On First

After scavenging for coins between the couch cushions of their already-thin farm system, the Miami Marlins traded infielder Erick Lara and right-hander Andrew Lindsey to the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday for utility man Vidal Bruján and righty reliever Calvin Faucher. The Marlins also owe Tampa Bay cash considerations or a player to be named later to complete the deal. It's remarkably the sixth time in the last three years that the Florida teams have hooked up on a trade. The structure in this instance is similar to their previous deal (headlined by Xavier Edwards), with the Fish focused on major league-ready players and willing to part with raw, "lottery ticket" prospects. None of the assets changing addresses are particularly valuable, but let's get into more of the specifics. Bruján had spent his entire professional career in the Rays organization. The Dominican switch-hitter emerged as a potentially special prospect in 2018. He was a consensus Top 100 talent entering the 2020 season and earned a 2021 Futures Game selection. His lifetime minor league slash line is .287/.370/.429 with a 126 wRC+ and 240 stolen bases, the fourth-highest total during that period. Unfortunately, he's been an utter failure at the major league level. Bruján has accrued -1.5 fWAR in only 272 MLB plate appearances, unable to even hit his own weight (.157 BA). The Rays got him reps at as many defensive positions as possible, but that still wasn't enough to merit a spot on a contending team. Turning 26 in February, Bruján has used up all of his minor league options. Peter Bendix acquired him with the intention of putting him on the Marlins Opening Day roster—the non-tendering of Garrett Hampson on Friday cleared the runway for him even more. He is currently playing in the Dominican Winter League for Estrellas Orientales where he's leading the league with 12 steals and slashing .316/.418/.405. The 28-year-old Faucher posted a 6.32 ERA, 4.98 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 39 games (including four "opener"appearances) as a Ray. He possesses a mid-90s sinker, low-90s cutter and a sweeper and curveball that both get very high spin rates. He missed the final two-plus months of the season with biceps tendinitis. It's pronounced "Foh-SHAY." https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/2d259947-5fcc-42b9-ae5d-53440154c914.mp4Faucher still has one minor league option remaining. Both of the outgoing players recently launched their professional careers. The 17-year-old Lara slashed .305/.416/.445 (133 wRC+) in the Dominican Summer League this season. Lindsey, who just turned 24, was Miami's fifth-round pick in the latest MLB Draft. Neither of them were ranked in our end-of-season Fish On First Top 30, though Lara earned an honorable mention. With the arrivals of Bruján and Faucher and the departures of Hampson and Jacob Stallings (also non-tendered), the Marlins 40-man roster is still at 37. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Marlins Podcast Episodes Luis Arraez finished eighth in NL MVP voting, appearing on 22 of the 30 BBWAA ballots. It's the second straight year that a Marlins player has received NL MVP votes (Sandy Alcantara placed 10th in 2022) and the best finish for any Marlin since Giancarlo Stanton won the award himself in 2017.In an "unprecedented collaboration" between Minor League Baseball and the Mexican League, the Pensacola Blue Wahoos will host a two-game exhibition series against Sultanes de Monterrey next April. The exhibitions will take place right before the start of Pensacola's 2024 regular season schedule.Fish On First caught up with former Marlins pitcher Pablo López on Thursday at his pickleball event encouraging pet adoption. Elsewhere around baseball, MLB owners voted unanimously to allow the Athletics to move from Oakland to Las Vegas. They'll still play the 2024 season in Oakland, but it's unclear what will happen from 2025-2027 while they wait for the Vegas ballpark to be constructed. Commissioner Rob Manfred also announced that Atlanta will host the 2025 MLB All-Star Game (the Texas Rangers are hosting in 2024). The Braves made a six-player trade to acquire White Sox reliever Aaron Bummer. This season, Bummer had by far MLB's largest ERA-to-FIP disparity among qualified relievers, so they're clearly anticipating that will normalize moving forward.I stated previously that the Marlins erred in allowing Jorge Soler to hit free agency without issuing him a qualifying offer (which he almost certainly would have rejected). Bruce Sherman says that although Peter Bendix "had an opinion" on that situation, the call was made by assistant general managers Brian Chattin, Dan Greenlee and Oz Ocampo (h/t Christina De Nicola, MLB.com). Discouraging start to the offseason between that and Troy Johnston's 40-man roster snub.Speaking of Johnston, Hans Herrera has a new FanPost ranting about the Rule 5 protection deadline and where the Marlins roster currently stands.More transactions seem inevitable in advance of today's non-tender deadline. Marlins players Luis Arraez, Jesús Luzardo, Tanner Scott, Jacob Stallings, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jesús Sánchez, A.J. Puk, Trevor Rogers, Garrett Hampson, JT Chargois, Steven Okert and Anthony Bender are eligible for arbitration in 2024. The Marlins can cut them with no strings attached if they feel any of them aren't worth their projected arb raises.Fish On First has partnered with the Marlins Discord server! You can join the server for free to participate in around-the-clock Fish talk. There is also a private channel reserved for our valued Super Subscribers.The Red Black Green Baseball Blog featured Nasim Nuñez in their series on Black MiLB players. Jorge Soler (DH), Luis Arraez (2B), Jake Burger (3B) and Tanner Scott (RP) are on the 2023 All-MLB ballot. Vote for them through Sunday.Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics

Marlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday's winter ball notes: CF Dane Myers (LIDOM) went 1-for-2 with three walks and two stolen bases.Brant Brown is joining the Mariners coaching staff, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports. After serving as Marlins hitting coach in 2023, Brown will have a "larger role" with his new club, according to Craig Mish of SportsGrid. This is the first known departure from Skip Schumaker's staff and it means the Marlins will be searching for their fourth hitting coach in as many seasons. They had a poor offense under Brown's tutelage, but several players insisted that his extensive scouting reports of opposing pitchers and personalized game plans put them in a position to be the best version of themselves.Elsewhere around baseball, MLB's competition committee has proposed reducing the pitch clock with runners on base from 20 seconds to 18 seconds. ESPN's Jeff Passan observes that only 14% of all 2023 pitch-clock violations came with runners on base, so the league sees it as an opportunity to continue trimming the fat from games.The latest episode of focused on Brown, Schumaker and the Marlins' 40-man roster moves. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/Fish On First has partnered with the Marlins Discord server! You can join the server for free to participate in around-the-clock Fish talk. There is also a private channel reserved for our valued Super Subscribers.The lone BBWAA writer to include Eury Pérez on his National League Rookie of the Year ballot, Jordan Shusterman of FOXsports.com, explains why he has such a high ceiling.Today at Miami Shores Tennis Club, old friend Pablo López is hosting a free event benefiting a local animal shelter.The NL MVP voting results will be announced tonight. I'm curious to see how many ballots include Luis Arraez (voters select their top 10 players). It would be a surprise if any other Marlins received votes.Photo by Kevin Barral/Fish On First