Ely Sussman

Here's what you should know with 101 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Sunday's winter ball notes: In Venezuela, LF Javier Sanoja went 0-for-1 with a walk and LHP Luis Palacios pitched in relief (2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K). In Puerto Rico, C Jan Mercado went 0-for-2. Poor guy is still hitless in the month of December.The Athletic reported that the Marlins and Royals discussed a massive trade at the Winter Meetings involving Jesús Luzardo and Vinnie Pasquantino. I wrote why valuing those players similarly would have been a big mistake from the Marlins' perspective.Former Marlins left-hander Enmanuel De Jesus inked a one-year, $800k deal to pitch for the KBO's Kiwoom Heroes. De Jesus made his major league debut with the Marlins last September, appearing twice in mop-up duty.Elsewhere around baseball, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (3/$42M) signed with the Diamondbacks. That seemingly closes the door on Tommy Pham re-signing with Arizona. How would you folks feel about Pham in Miami if he was willing to take a relatively cheap two-year deal? Maybe I'll write an article on that. For the time being, the Marlins are one of only eight teams who haven't made a major league free agent signing.Kevin Barral explains why he likes Carl Edwards Jr. as a low-cost, right-handed bullpen reinforcement for the Marlins.On Saturday, LoanDepot Park hosted the Triple Play 5K. The event fundraised for Alzheimer's research, Parkinson's research, ALS research, general brain health, mental health and stroke awareness.Speaking of a different kind of "running," the Marlins Radio Network posted the first two episodes of "Marlins Rerun." The five-part series reflects on key players and moments from the 2023 season.Marlins Podcast Episodes Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins

At the Winter Meetings earlier this month, the Miami Marlins discussed a potential franchise-altering trade that would have sent Jesús Luzardo to the Kansas City Royals for Vinnie Pasquantino, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Rosenthal implies that it was the Royals who decided not to proceed, instead bolstering their starting rotation via free agency without having to sacrifice their talented first baseman. In a vacuum, it's unsurprising that the Marlins would want "The Pasquatch." The 2019 draft pick thrived at every level of the minor leagues. After initially slumping following his 2022 midseason call-up, he was among MLB's hottest hitters over the last two-plus months of the season. Pasquantino possesses terrific contact skills, even against same-handed pitching. He's drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts in the majors while also generating average-ish power. Pasquantino was on an All-Star trajectory through the first quarter of the 2023 campaign. However, his stats cratered after that, and then on June 9, he tore the labrum in his right shoulder. The subsequent surgery sidelined him for the rest of the season. He finished with replacement-level production in 61 games played (.247/.324/.437, 103 wRC+ in 260 PA). Assuming a clean bill of health, Pasquantino is projected by both ZiPS (128 OPS+) and Steamer (128 wRC+) to revert to his rookie form. He insists on Twitter that the shoulder issues are fully behind him: Pasquantino would make Miami's offense better than it currently projects to be in 2024, occupying first base or the DH spot on a near-daily basis (whichever one Josh Bell isn't playing). The most appealing part? He's still two years away from arbitration eligibility and five years away from free agency. Trade young pitching for Pasquantino? I could see it. But Jesús Luzardo?! Not unless there are additional substantial assets coming to the Marlins in return. Even then, they'd have to be the right ones. Luzardo has made all 44 of his scheduled starts since returning from a forearm strain in mid-2022. He's been the ace of the Marlins during that span. "Trading him might be the best way for the Marlins to address offensive needs while guarding against Luzardo’s value diminishing as he gets more expensive," Rosenthal wrote in a separate column on Friday, citing his $5.9M arbitration projection. To be clear, there is absolutely zero financial pressure on the Marlins to do that this offseason. A $5.9M salary is about half of what ho-hum back-end starters are getting in free agency. Eventually, though, Luzardo will be a rich man. On Saturday, Tyler Glasnow is expected to finalize a contract extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers that values his early-30s free agent years at $30M apiece. For all of their stylistic differences, both Glasnow and Luzardo have lights-out stuff and fairly comparable results since "putting it all together" in recent seasons, plus they share a worrisome history when it comes to forearm/elbow injuries. Luzardo is on track to reach free agency entering his age-29 season, two years younger than Glasnow would have. Jesús Luzardo vs. Tyler Glasnow pitching comparison | StatheadMy Marlins offseason blueprint called for a $77.5M Luzardo extension. Unfortunately for the club, as much as the South Florida native might desire to spend the prime of his career in a familiar place, I underestimated the starting pitching market. Even being so far away from the open market, he wouldn't settle for that much of a discount. Glasnow's guarantee of $110M in new money now seems like the more appropriate benchmark. I have a difficult time imagining the Marlins going there. The payday hasn't arrived yet and Luzardo's current healthy streak is highly encouraging. As a result, his trade value is peaking right now. While that does not mean the Marlins should look to move him, it does justify listening to what's out there. This brings me back to Pasquantino—skilled hitter, seemingly awesome personality, coincidentally the same age as Luzardo (they were born 10 days apart), but not nearly as valuable. He's all the way at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, limited to first base and not particularly effective at the position. His two additional years of club control don't close the gap between them. The Marlins have long-term uncertainty at the premium up-the-middle spots. Selling high on Luzardo is only justifiable if it helps them figure out their future at catcher, shortstop or center field. In Kansas City's case, if Pasquantino was packaged with Maikel García—another promising pre-arb player who would immediately become Miami's primary shortstop—that would have been something worth considering. Remember how Luzardo got here in the first place, as the compensation that the Marlins received for pending free agent Starling Marte. His hard work has boosted his trade value by several multiples since then. In his first offseason on the job, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has the opportunity to flip him for a special haul if another team is desperate enough. If Bendix actually does view Luzardo as roughly equivalent to a Pasquantino type, he's in danger of botching this opportunity.

Here's what you should know with 104 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Thursday's winter ball notes: In the Dominican Republic, 3B Vidal Bruján went 2-for-2 with a walk and 2 RBI. Bruján seemed to be limping while running the bases in the third inning and exited the game shortly after—hopefully that doesn't bring his LIDOM season to a premature end. Elsewhere around baseball, the Rays have agreed to trade Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot and $4M cash to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca. The deal is pending the finalization of Glasnow's contract extension (he was previously set to become a free agent next winter). Once done, it will drop Tampa Bay's projected 2024 payroll below Miami's, according to Roster Resource. Tyler Mahle (2/$22M) signed with the Rangers, Jack Flaherty (1/$14M) signed with the Tigers and Austin Wynns (1/$900k) signed with the Reds.Skip Schumaker spoke to Christina De Nicola of MLB.com about raising awareness for the fight against pediatric cancer through his upcoming baseball skills camp. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald has a very, very, very early preview of what the Marlins "Spring Breakout" roster could look like.Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase came on Man On 2nd with Joe Frisaro to swap stories about their process for breaking Marlins news.Today marks the end of the 2023 signing period for international amateurs. The Marlins made at least 33 signings, based on my quick skim of their transactions log. The 2024 period opens on January 15 with a replenished bonus pool for them to maneuver with.No Offishial News articles on the weekends, so I'll be the first to wish Bryan De La Cruz a happy birthday. The charismatic Dominican outfielder turns 27 on Saturday. Last season, De La Cruz led the Marlins in games played (153), plate appearances (626), doubles (32) and runs batted in (78).Congrats to Fish On First's Daniel Rodriguez on earning his master's degree from the University of Miami!Marlins Podcast Episodes Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First

Wednesday’s winter ball notes: In the Dominican Republic, 3B Vidal Bruján went 1-for-3 with a walk and two stolen bases. In Puerto Rico, C Jan Mercado went 0-for-2.The Marlins have picked their new director of amateur scouting, according to Craig Mish of SportsGrid. Frankie Piliere comes over from the Seattle Mariners where he'd spent six years in their scouting department. Relatively young guy who previously covered amateur prospects for D1Baseball. On next week's episode of The Offishial Show, we will be examining Piliere's takes from the 2016 and 2017 draft cycles and see how they aged.https://fishonfirst.com/news/tracking-every-notable-marlins-organizational-change-entering-2024/In the Miami Herald, Mish and Barry Jackson touch on various Marlins topics. Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers "have the inside track" to win the final two Opening Day rotation spots, with Max Meyer lurking "if either falters in the spring." They corroborate reporting by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic about free agent Isiah Kiner-Falefa being of interest to the Fish. "Even with (Christian) Bethancourt added, the Marlins remain open to finding a catcher," they add, specifically citing Andrew Knizner as an option being considered. Knizner should come cheaply after the Cardinals non-tendered him rather than pay a projected $2M salary.https://fishonfirst.com/news/marlins-rumors-andrew-knizner/Elsewhere around baseball, Shohei Ohtani has the ability to opt out of his historic contract with the Dodgers if either owner Mark Walter or president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman are no longer involved with the team. Ohtani's introductory press conference is being held today at 6:00 p.m. ET. Major League Baseball announced the debut of "Spring Breakout" in 2024, where top prospects from each organization will play seven-inning showcase games. Marlins and Cardinals prospects will face off at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 15 right before the regularly scheduled Grapefruit League game.Christian Bethancourt spoke to the media on Wednesday about his determination to be a well-rounded player on both offense and defense.Through the Miami Marlins Foundation, Jeff Conine, Griffin Conine and Gaby Sanchez surprised two families with holiday gifts and served dinner for 500 more families. Episode 2 of "The Standard" relives the time Luis Arraez hit for the first-ever Marlins cycle.Baseball Prospectus ranked the top 20 Marlins prospects. Relative to other outlets, they are very high on OF Kemp Alderman (No. 4) and LHP Josh Simpson (No. 12) and low on IF Xavier Edwards (No. 14) and IF Yiddi Cappe (No. 18).The Pensacola Blue Wahoos are seeking a paid broadcasting and media relations trainee for the 2024 season.Marlins Podcast Episodes Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins

Buried near the bottom of the latest Craig Mish/Barry Jackson Miami Herald piece, they report that the Miami Marlins are "considering" free agent catcher Andrew Knizner. Knizner was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016 and that's the only major league organization he's ever known. Last year, Knizner slashed .241/.288/.424 (career-high 92 wRC+) and produced -0.1 fWAR in 70 games. He has never had a season above replacement level, per FanGraphs. He turns 29 in February. The Cardinals non-tendered Knizner on November 17 rather than pay him a projected $2M salary via arbitration. They're seemingly all set at the position with Willson Contreras and Iván Herrera. Kevin Barral highlighted Knizner in a Fish On First article last week. That was prior to the Christian Bethancourt acquisition. Health permitting, Bethancourt is highly likely to make Miami's Opening Day roster. He was a comparable player to Knizner in 2023, significantly better than him in 2022 and cannot be optioned to the minors. https://fishonfirst.com/news/christian-bethancourt-wants-to-put-it-all-together-for-marlins/"Even with Bethancourt added, the Marlins remain open to finding a catcher who would start or share time with Nick Fortes," according to Mish and Jackson. Fortes still has two minor league options left and didn't hit a lick against right-handed pitching last season (26 wRC+), Worth mentioning, Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, hitting coach John Mabry and new assistant hitting coach Bill Mueller all have familiarity with Knizner from their time in the Cardinals organization. The Marlins are one of nine teams who haven't finalized a major league free agent deal during the 2023-24 offseason, according to Jon Becker's MLB Matrices. Knizner is not a lock to receive a guaranteed deal, to be clear, but this free agent class lacks reliable catchers and the slugging potential he's shown ought to draw some interest from other suitors. The dream scenario for the Fish would be to bring him to Jupiter as a non-roster invitee. Photo by Brennan Asplen/Getty Images

Marlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday’s winter ball notes: In the Dominican Republic, 2B Vidal Bruján went 2-for-4 with 1 RBI and 2B José Devers went 2-for-4. In Puerto Rico, C Jan Mercado went 0-for-3 with a walk. Mercado's .096 batting average is the lowest among all winter ball players with a minimum of 50 at-bats. He's hitless in the month of December.Best of luck to Daniel Castano, who will be playing for the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization. Castano spent the last six seasons in the Marlins organization, pitching only three innings in the majors in 2023. The KBO gives him an opportunity to be a starter and an $850,000 salary (even better pay than he would have received as a big leaguer). He'll hope to emulate Erick Fedde, the struggling American who parlayed a dominant season with the Dinos into a $15 million deal with the White Sox.https://www.instagram.com/p/C0yRb_Hy88F/?hl=en&e=1441a240-1a86-4632-a579-86eab9458145&g=5Elsewhere around baseball, Jung Hoo Lee (6/$113M) signed with the Giants, Seth Lugo (3/$45M) and Chris Stratton (2/$8M) signed with the Royals, Rowdy Tellez (1/$3.2M) signed with the Pirates, Dylan Floro (1/$2.25M) signed with the Nationals and Cooper Criswell (1/$1M) signed with the Red Sox. Ronny Mauricio suffered a torn right ACL while playing in the Dominican Winter League. That figures to sideline the young Mets infielder for most (if not all) of the 2024 season. Participating in the same league, Pirates catcher Endy Rodriguez damaged his UCL on a swing, requiring reconstructive surgery that rules him out for next year, the team announced.Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs released his 2024 ZiPS projections for the Marlins. The numbers below represent wins above replacement. Szymborski also listed the top near-age comps for each player, including Jesús Luzardo as David Price/Vida Blue/Steve Carlton, Eury Pérez as Denny McLain/Dennis Eckersley/José Fernández and Jazz Chisholm Jr. as Glenallen Hill/Wally Judnich/Andre Dawson.Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John surgery) is determined to rehab "as quickly as possible," he tells FOF's Kevin Barral. Keep our injury and rehab tracker bookmarked for the latest updates on him and other Marlins players.I satirized the goofballs who devise and share illogical hypothetical trades via Baseball Trade Values by highlighting five especially absurd proposals that were validated by their simulator.Anthony Bender, Nick Fortes, Braxton Garrett and Jesús Luzardo attended Monday's Miami Dolphins game together.As if Eury Pérez wasn't easy enough to identify in public, the 6'8" right-hander has inked his left leg from the knee down to demonstrate his Dominican pride. Photo by Kevin Barral/Fish On First

For years, I've been using Baseball Trade Values, particularly their trade simulator. In the pre-BTV era, it was often difficult to quickly compare the relative values of players when they have vastly different MLB track records and contractual situations. Their propriety formula distills thousands of active major leaguers and minor leaguers into a single number, approximating their surplus value in dollars. I recommend it...as long as you simulate responsibly. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that mocking "fair" trades continues to be difficult. BTV is occasionally outdated or simply off the mark on certain players. More importantly, aligning the values on both sides is only part of the battle! Proposals ought to help the teams involved actually accomplish something and complement what they already have. If you ignore realistic scenarios and just focus on ways to hypothetically make a team better, you can have a lot of fun. Let's try that for the Miami Marlins. The only players I decided were off limits when cooking up these proposals: players with full no-trade protection (Mike Trout, Salvador Pérez, Giancarlo Stanton, etc.); major league free agents who have signed this offseason (not eligible to be traded yet); and extremely expensive players whose salaries and/or total guaranteed contracts are incompatible with the frugal Marlins. Each of the following deals were "validated" by the BTV trade simulator as of December 12, meaning the values of the players at the time fell within their model's margin for error. Royals trade Maikel García to the Marlins for Steven Okert, Jordan Groshans, Jhon Cabral, Ryan Jensen and Victor Victor Mesa García is already an average-ish MLB third baseman who could likely become an average-ish MLB shortstop if he were on a team with an opening at that position. He still has six years of club control ahead of him. Respectfully, the Marlins would not miss any of the players being sent to Kansas City. Okert is their fourth-best left-handed reliever and he's out of minor league options. Groshans continues to slide down the defensive spectrum and still hasn't figured out how to tap into his power during games. Baseball America included Cabral on their 2023 midseason Marlins Top 30 prospects list despite being incapable of throwing strikes in rookie ball—BTV seems to have juiced his value based solely on that bold editorial decision. Jensen was a recent waiver claim. I'm surprised the Marlins haven't released Mesa by now. https://fishonfirst.com/news/victor-victor-mesa-abandons-marlins/Blue Jays trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Arjun Nimmala to the Marlins for Anthony Bender Vladdy tied for the MLB lead with 48 home runs in 2021. He's been trending in the wrong direction since then, but is only entering his age-25 season!!! Although the Marlins would be hopeless to sign him long term in the event of a rebound, they'd jump at this buy-low opportunity, especially when the package also contains a top 2023 draft pick. Nimmala has an extraordinary ceiling and would unequivocally take over as Miami's best position player prospect. Inexplicably, BTV values Anthony Bender highly enough to green-light this proposal. I was all about #BenderMania in early 2021. He held opponents without an earned run through his first 21 MLB games. In 61 appearances after that, Bender was totally unremarkable (3.94 ERA, 4.13 FIP and 0.27 WPA) and then he underwent Tommy John surgery. I'm not even confident in him making the Marlins Opening Day roster. Mets trade Starling Marte, Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernández to the Marlins for Avisaíl García It's a bad contract swap that would feel awfully good for Marlins fans. Marte's sub-replacement-level 2023 season was preceded by an All-Star campaign. Even if there has been a tangible degradation of athleticism since his Marlins days, Marte's hitting prowess gives him a path to being impactful again (health permitting). Peter Bendix gets to avenge one of Kim Ng's most notorious gaffes by reacquiring Vargas and Hernández (sent to New York in the David Robertson trade). Despite being considerably younger than Marte, García will have a much harder time living up to the back half of his contract due to his swing-and-miss issues. He played only 135 games over the last two seasons. Braves trade Sean Murphy to the Marlins for A.J. Puk I realize that Murphy's bat was impotent after the All-Star break. However, during the first half of the same season, he was not far behind Ronald Acuña Jr. in the NL MVP conversation. He is, by any measure, an above-average MLB starting catcher who also happens to be under contract through his prime years, never exceeding a $15M salary through 2029. It seems to be a blatant BTV error that his surplus value has been lowered from $51.3M to $21.7M over the past year. Puk was traded straight up for JJ Bleday in early 2023. Phillies trade J.T. Realmuto and $11 million cash to the Marlins for Sixto Sánchez Reversing course on a 2019 blockbuster! Presented without further comment. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Ely Sussman endorses the Marlins' acquisition of Christian Bethancourt, then discusses how he and 25 other players would fit together on the club's Opening Day roster. Of course, this is assuming no additional offseason moves. Subscribe to the Fish On First YouTube channel to watch video versions of every episode of The Offishial Show. My projected roster is shown below, with "SP" denoting members of the initial starting rotation. Keep in mind, this is not what I personally want to do, but rather my educated guess for what the Peter Bendix-led Marlins would do if entering the 2024 season with only the players currently in the organization. The toughest cuts were Anthony Bender and Anthony Maldonado. Pitchers (13): RHP Huascar Brazoban, RHP Edward Cabrera (SP), RHP JT Chargois, LHP Braxton Garrett (SP), LHP Jesús Luzardo (SP), RHP Max Meyer, LHP Andrew Nardi, LHP Steven Okert, RHP Eury Pérez (SP), LHP A.J. Puk, LHP Trevor Rogers (SP), LHP Tanner Scott, RHP George Soriano Hitters (13): 2B Luis Arraez, 1B/DH Josh Bell, UTIL Jon Berti, C Christian Bethancourt, UTIL Vidal Bruján, 3B Jake Burger, OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., OF Bryan De La Cruz, IF Xavier Edwards, C Nick Fortes, OF/DH Avisaíl García, OF Dane Myers, OF Jesús Sánchez Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. Our Fish On First podcast programming includes The Offishial Show, Fish Unfiltered, State of the Fish, Swimming Upstream, Fishology and What a Relief. All new episodes are posted to FishOnFirst.com/podcasts. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Podbean, Megaphone or wherever you normally get your pods from.