Ely Sussman

In the aftermath of adding a veteran shortstop to the mix, I'm projecting which 26 Marlins players are best positioned to make the Opening Day roster. Grapefruit League games haven't even begun yet and I already need to scrap last week's Miami Marlins roster projection. Who knows how effective Tim Anderson will be as the club's new shortstop, but the deal came together in ample time for Anderson to be active for Opening Day. That means somebody who was previously on track to make the cut is now on the outside looking in. I can say with a fairly high degree of confidence that there will be discrepancies between this projection and the ultimate 26-man active roster. Injuries are almost inevitable over the next five weeks. There will be extreme Grapefruit League performances that cannot be forecasted and may tilt a roster battle. Even so, hopefully you find some value in this exercise. Look out for at least one more roster projection update between now and Opening Day. Position Players Catchers (2): Christian Bethancourt, Nick Fortes Infielders (6): Tim Anderson, Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Jon Berti, Jake Burger, Vidal Bruján Outfielders (5): Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz, Avisaíl García, Nick Gordon, Jesús Sánchez Just missed: Xavier Edwards, Trey Mancini, Dane Myers The catching situation is straightforward. Fortes' active roster spot could be in jeopardy early in the regular season if he continues to scuffle at the plate just as much as he did in 2023, but he's doubtful to be usurped on the depth chart until the real games begin. The Marlins traded three prospects in their deal to acquire the out-of-options Bruján. I still expect him to break camp with the club, though he's rarely going to step on the field for anything other than pinch-running and end-of-game defense. Until Arraez hurt his ankle last September, there wasn't much of a role for Edwards to play. Unfortunately, that continues to be the case. For the time being, the Marlins would presumably prefer having him in Triple-A Jacksonville's everyday lineup instead of warming the bench in Miami. It's a long season and he will get his chance eventually. The Marlins continue to reject the notion that García is a sunk cost. Perhaps they will change their tune before Opening Day, but with all of the guaranteed money still coming his way, it's not a fair fight between him and other hitters in camp. Pitchers Starters (5): Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers Relievers (8): Anthony Bender, JT Chargois, Declan Cronin, Andrew Nardi, A.J. Puk, Tanner Scott, Josh Simpson, George Soriano Just missed: Huascar Brazoban, Anthony Maldonado, Max Meyer, Ryan Weathers Pretty good pitching staff, though pretty boring considering all but one of these arms finished last season in the Marlins organization. The exception is the righty in this photo, Declan Cronin. You had no clue what he looked like until now, and that's okay. Cronin has been outstanding in spring workouts from what Fish On First reporters have observed. Cronin is capitalizing on the absence of Brazoban. Just like in 2023, the Dominican reliever is significantly behind schedule due to visa issues. Last year, he trained independently while that was being sorted out and ramped up in time to join the Opening Day bullpen. Even with that precedent, I can't give him the benefit of the doubt for something that's partially beyond his control. Simpson slides into the lefty specialist role that previously belonged to Steven Okert. His nasty curveball should allow him to thrive with the platoon advantage. Soriano would be the projected mop-up man and likeliest pitcher to get optioned to the minors when making room for a fresh arm. Maldonado has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. Wouldn't be a shock if a preseason reliever injury paves the way for him to make the cut. However, it will be very tempting to delay his debut until mid-April, limiting enough MLB service time to ensure that club control carries through 2030 instead of only 2029. I believe Sixto Sánchez—who is out of options—will be designated for assignment when the times comes to finalize the roster. Any differences between your roster projection and mine? Comment to let me know. View full article

As you may have heard, Braxton Garrett is a little behind schedule because of shoulder soreness. If he has any kind of setback when trying to throw off a mound, that might be the cue to bring in somebody who's proven.

Personally, I would've gone with Rosario over Anderson too. Still trying to wrap my mind around how Rosario's price fell that low.

Marlins news roundup for 2/22/24 Here's what you should know with 35 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Fish On First will have boots on the ground for today's Marlins spring training workout. Follow Noah Berger, Alex Carver and Nick Turok for live updates from the Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium complex and check out our staff's 2024 Spring Training Journal (new entries every day). 🔹 Sixto Sánchez took an encouraging baby step on Wednesday by facing off against major league hitters in live batting practice. Fish On First has learned that Sánchez's fastball velocity ranged from 92-94 mph—still a far cry from the pre-injury phenom who was sitting 97-100, but it is the strongest he has felt since then. That being said, it would be impossible to justify giving him an active roster spot unless he continues to make strides with his command and secondary pitches. 🔹 Ryan Weathers will get the starting nod on Saturday when the Marlins play the Cardinals. Seems like a logical choice to give a talented arm who's projected to miss out on the Opening Day roster as many opportunities as possible to make an impression. Expect Weathers to be out there for two innings. 🔹 Elsewhere around baseball, there is an actual MLB (exhibition) game for us to watch today! The Dodgers and Padres will kick off the 2024 Cactus League schedule at 3:10 p.m. ET. First baseman Eric Hosmer has announced his retirement. The South Florida native played 13 seasons in the majors, enjoying his best years with the Royals. 🔹 On the latest Fish On First LIVE, our panel discussed Sixto's status, the Marlins' pursuit of Tim Anderson and under-the-radar players who've done well in camp so far. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks! If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔹 Where are they now? Every spring training, I do a roundup of what happened to every player who spent the previous season with the Marlins. Unusual to see so many of them still lingering in free agency at this point. 🔹 Jake Burger told Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times that Tim Anderson was a "great teammate" to him when they were on the White Sox. Burger would endorse the Marlins picking him up, saying "it would be awesome to play with him [again]." Jazz Chisholm Jr. seems to be on board the TA train as well. Greenberg also wrote about the close friendship that has quickly developed between Burger and Josh Bell. 🔹 Trey Mancini is struck by how "close-knit" this Marlins team is, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. "They have such a good thing going," Mancini says, "and it’s something you want to be a part of." Mancini is a non-roster invitee trying to make the cut as a part-time first baseman/DH. 🔹 On his new Substack, Ethan Budowsky explains why the Bruce Sherman/Peter Bendix press conference "did them no favors in establishing trust" with the fanbase. View full article

2 bonus names for you who didn't belong in the article because they weren't used in any games despite being called up for brief periods...Sean Reynolds and Tommy Nance are both with the Padres now. Reynolds is on their 40-man roster, while Nance is an NRI on a minor league deal.

Nearly half of the contributors to Miami's 2023 postseason berth are no longer with the organization. The Miami Marlins had a relatively quiet 2023-24 offseason under new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix. It feels like they are running it back with many familiar faces from last year's squad. You may be surprised to learn how much turnover there's actually been: 44.2% of last season's Marlins major leaguers are no longer with the organization. Miami used 52 different players in regular season games a year ago. These 29 are still under contract with the org: Sandy Alcantara, Jacob Amaya, Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Jon Berti, Huascar Brazoban, Jake Burger, Edward Cabrera, JT Chargois, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jonathan Davis*, Bryan De La Cruz, Xavier Edwards, Nick Fortes, Avisaíl García, Braxton Garrett, Bryan Hoeing, Jeff Lindgren*, Jesús Luzardo, Dane Myers, Andrew Nardi, Eury Pérez, A.J. Puk, Trevor Rogers, Jesús Sánchez, Tanner Scott, Devin Smeltzer*, George Soriano and Ryan Weathers. *players who aren't currently on the 40-man roster Departures Entering opening week of the 2024 regular season, 16 ex-Marlins have found new employers: Matt Barnes—Washington Nationals Peyton Burdick—Baltimore Orioles Daniel Castano—NC Dinos (KBO) Enmanuel De Jesus—Kiwoom Heroes (KBO) Dylan Floro—Washington Nationals Robert Garcia—Washington Nationals Garrett Cooper—Chicago Cubs Garrett Hampson—Kansas City Royals Geoff Hartlieb—Colorado Rockies Jorge López—New York Mets Matt Moore—Los Angeles Angels Steven Okert—Minnesota Twins David Robertson—Texas Rangers Jorge Soler—San Francisco Giants Jacob Stallings—Colorado Rockies Joey Wendle—New York Mets Then, there are those still dangling in free agency, all of whom were objectively unproductive against MLB competition last season: Archie Bradley, Johnny Cueto, Chi Chi González, Yuli Gurriel, Sean Nolin, Johan Quezada and Jean Segura. At this rate, some of them may opt for retirement. View full article

Marlins news roundup for 2/21/24 Here's what you should know with 36 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Fish On First will have boots on the ground for today's Marlins spring training workout. Follow Noah Berger and Alex Carver for live updates from the Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium complex and check out our staff's 2024 Spring Training Journal (new entries every day). 🔹 José Devers was spotted in Jupiter on Tuesday. That leaves Huascar Brazoban and Jhonny Pereda as the only players still absent from Marlins big league camp (both due to visa issues). 🔹 Here is the full audio (and mostly full video) of Bruce Sherman and Peter Bendix addressing the media at the start of full-squad workouts. Bendix continued to deflect questions about why the Marlins are not offering Luis Arraez a contract extension (Arraez has only two years of club control remaining). In a private meeting with the players, Sherman says he reiterated his "commitment to this organization for the long term"...even though he has lowered payroll from where it was entering 2023. All in all, an awkward and uninspiring event. 🔹 Bob Nightengale of USA Today is the latest to confirm that the Marlins have offered a major league deal to Tim Anderson. He believes it guarantees "about $2M," which is less than I would've expected. "Waiting on him" to respond to the offer, Craig Mish of SportsGrid tweets. 🔹 Elsewhere around baseball, Amed Rosario (1/$1.5M) signed with the Rays for what I'd consider one of this offseason's most team-friendly deals. Even acknowledging his poor defensive metrics at shortstop, the 28-year-old Rosario has tantalizing bounce-back potential that I assumed would merit far better compensation. Also, Hyun Jin Ryu returned to his native South Korea on a deal that will make him the KBO's highest-paid player. 🔹 Join us for a new episode of Fish On First LIVE streaming at 7:00 p.m. ET on YouTube/Facebook/Twitter. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks! If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔹 Derek Dietrich took a player development job with the Yankees. That made me realize how much the Marlins' aversion to getting hit by pitches held back their offense last season. 🔹 Kevin Barral spoke to Bennett Hostetler about his conversion to catcher and 2023 swing adjustments. 🔹 The majority of respondents to the latest View from the Bleacher's poll gave the Marlins an "F" grade for their offseason (in)activity. About two-thirds of them project the team to finish fourth or fifth in the NL East standings this season. Marlins Podcast Episodes View full article

Unlike the 2023 Marlins, Dietrich was always willing to take one for the team if it meant getting on base. Derek Dietrich has seemingly closed the book on his playing career, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting on Tuesday that the New York Yankees have hired him for a position in their player development department. Dietrich played for Yankees minor league affiliates in 2021 and 2022, but hadn't appeared in the majors since 2020 (Texas Rangers). Prior to that, he spent the vast majority of his MLB tenure with the Miami Marlins (2013-2018). Assuming he is indeed hanging up his cleats, he'll conclude his career with a .245/.335/.428 slash line (108 wRC+), 84 home runs and 5.9 fWAR accumulated. As a Marlin, Dietrich provided defensive versatility, alternating between first base, second base, third base and left field, wherever the team needed him. He was known for being a beast in the gym and maintaining an impressive physique. Most of all, he distinguished himself by constantly getting hit by pitches. In 608 career games with the Fish, Dietrich was plunked 93 times. He led the National League in that category during the 2016 season despite frequently sitting against left-handed pitching. Every single month that he spent on Miami's roster across six seasons included at least one HBP—incredible consistency! There has not been another ball magnet like Dietrich in Marlins history. Only two other former Fish, Álex González (51 HBP) and Brian Anderson (48 HBP), made it even halfway to Dietrich's total. You'll have to scroll down a looooooong way to find the top current Marlin (Jon Berti, 17 HBP). The Marlins were the lowest-scoring team in the National League during the 2023 season, as you're probably aware of. Did you know they also ranked last in the NL with 50 hit by pitches? The MLB-wide HBP rate has been higher than ever and this offense must do more to capitalize on that to manufacture more scoring opportunities. Jorge Soler has departed via free agency. He ranked third on the club with six HBPs, so that digs the hole even deeper. However, maybe new acquisition Nick Gordon can offset that. In his most recent season with significant playing time (2022), Gordon had 10 HBPs. As an above-average runner, he's more likely than Soler to steal his way into scoring position once he reaches first base. Christian Bethancourt, meanwhile, has a less encouraging track record when it comes to this niche: only three HBPs as a big leaguer. He enters 2024 with a drought that stretches back 489 consecutive plate appearances. Jake Burger was quietly on a Dietrich-esque pace following his trade to Miami. Burger played with the Marlins for just one-third of the season yet was plunked seven times during that span. Although there figures to be some regression coming, he'll help raise the Marlins' HBP floor for the foreseeable future (he's under club control through 2028). On the other end of the spectrum, Xavier Edwards has been hit by seven total pitches during his professional baseball career (465 games). Like Burger, Edwards is forecasted to be a much bigger part of the team than he was in 2023. His aversion to HBPs will be tolerated as long as his perennial double-digit walk rates from the minors translate to the highest level. The very early returns on that were not promising (3 BB in 84 PA). Besides Gordon, Bethancourt, Burger and Edwards, here are the other position players who I currently project to make the Marlins Opening Day roster and the percentage of their MLB career plate appearances that have resulted in HBPs (league average is a 1.1 HBP%): Luis Arraez—0.4 HBP% Josh Bell—0.4 HBP% Jon Berti—1.1 HBP% Vidal Bruján—1.1 HBP% Jazz Chisholm Jr.—0.8 HBP% Bryan De La Cruz—0.3 HBP% Nick Fortes—2.0 HBP% Avisaíl García—1.4 HBP% Jesús Sánchez—0.8 HBP% If the Marlins aren't going to spend directly on players, why not bring Dietrich to spring camp as a guest instructor so that he can share his special techniques with the rest of the squad? Welp, maybe they'll make a stronger bid for his services next year if "HBPhobia" continues to hamper their offense. View full article

If we fast-forward a month and it's clear Mancini has something left in the tank, then I agree. If Mancini is useless, then the Marlins might be forced to use Johnston at some point during the season. Might as well stay the course because the only way to meaningfully boost his trade value is if he looks decent in MLB action.

Some organizations have more transparent leadership. Even in this case, when you get very little from them, it's still important to give them an opportunity to explain or defend themselves.

Marlins news roundup for 2/20/24 Here's what you should know with 37 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Fish On First will have boots on the ground for today's Marlins spring training workout. Follow Isaac Azout, Alex Krutchik and Alex Carver for live updates from the Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium complex and check out our staff's 2024 Spring Training Journal (new entries every day). 🔹 Per Skip Schumaker, 59 of 62 players have reported to Marlins big league camp. The exceptions are Huascar Brazoban, José Devers and Jhonny Pereda. 🔹 Schumaker also shared his plans for the designated hitter spot: "Without that just-DH kinda guy, I think you're gonna see a rotation there." In 2023, the Marlins had 10 different starters in the DH spot, but the majority of the plate appearances went to Jorge Soler, who's no longer with the club. 🔹 It's been announced that Bally Sports Florida is carrying spring training broadcasts on February 24, March 3, March 10, March 15, March 16, March 20 and March 22, though only the March 16 and March 20 games will be fully produced by BSFL with Marlins announcers. The others will either be shared with Bally Sports Midwest or direct feeds from the Cardinals broadcast. Every Grapefruit League game will have Marlins radio coverage with the exception of a few split-squad games. 🔹 Elsewhere around baseball, rehabbing right-handers Brandon Woodruff (two-year deal) signed with the Brewers and Liam Hendriks (2/$10M) signed with the Red Sox. David Peralta and Dom Smith took minor league deals with the Cubs. The Orioles traded cash considerations to get Kaleb Ort from the Phillies. Their corresponding roster move? Designating Peyton Burdick for assignment. If the Marlins could reacquire Burdick for cash, I'd be all for it. 🔹 This morning, Marlins principal owner Bruce Sherman and president of baseball operations Peter Bendix will be formally addressing the media for the first time since camp began. We'll add their press conferences to our YouTube playlist as soon as possible. 🔹 In a candid conversation with our own Alex Carver, Troy Johnston says it was "kind of heartbreaking" to be denied a 40-man roster spot this past offseason despite putting up extraordinary numbers in the upper minors. 🔹 Noah Berger identifies Josh Simpson as a sneaky contender for an Opening Day job in the Marlins bullpen. 🔹 "The Marlins need talent in uniforms, not in suits," Greg Cote of the Miami Herald writes in criticizing the team's "do-nothing offseason." 🔹 FanGraphs identified 61 potential breakout prospects for this year. None are current Marlins, but a league source nominated OF Byron Chourio, who was seen as a mere throw-in piece when Miami included him in the Luis Arraez trade. 🔹 Happy 20th birthday to Marlins INF Jesús Hernández. Last season in the Florida Complex League, Hernández slashed .262/.403/.381 (116 wRC+) in 50 games split between third base and shortstop. View full article

The only multi-year deal I've really liked is Lourdes Gurriel staying with the D-backs (3/$42M). But there have been a bunch of 1-year signings that come at no risk and could cumulatively make a dramatic difference. Would be far easier to trade from the team's rotation depth if they had brought in an additional veteran like Martin Perez or Jack Flaherty. We'll see what he ultimately gets, but I'd be in favor of an Adam Duvall reunion. Then, take a flier on Tim Anderson.

Yeah, that's fair. Troy has struggled at 1B defensively even beyond the errors. It is still a relatively new position (began playing there in 2021), so there is a shred of hope that he makes progress this season thanks to simply building up reps. Easier to justify having him in the big leagues if he's adding any value with the glove.

Marlins news roundup for 2/19/24 Here's what you should know with 38 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Fish On First will have boots on the ground for today's Marlins spring training workout. Follow Isaac Azout, Noah Berger and Alex Carver for live updates from the Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium complex and check out our staff's 2024 Spring Training Journal (new entries every day). 🔹 No word yet on whether there's an agreement between the Marlins and free agent Tim Anderson, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. seems to be in favor of signing him. 🔹 Today marks the start of live batting practice matchups at Marlins big league camp. The conventional wisdom is that "pitchers are ahead of hitters" at this stage of camp, so don't expect to see too many barreled balls. 🔹 Elsewhere around baseball, Jorge Soler's three-year contract with the Giants is finally official. 🔹 On The Offishial Show, I have the Marlins Opening Day payroll projected at $90.575M, which would be slightly lower than last year. 🔹 Nearly three years removed from his initial right shoulder injury, Sixto Sánchez is still "not the same" pitcher he used to be, Mel Stottlemyre Jr. says candidly. Even so, the former top prospect has thrown two bullpen sessions as scheduled. He's out of minor league options, so he will remain in big league camp for the foreseeable future. Are the Marlins really going to put him into Grapefruit League games with such diminished stuff? 🔹 Laura Georgia assesses how Christian Bethancourt fits with the Marlins and reflects on the winding road he took to get to Miami. 🔹 Christina De Nicola of MLB.com and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald both wrote about how Trevor Rogers used LEGO sets to keep himself occupied last summer while rehabbing from injury. 🔹 Enjoy our growing YouTube playlist of interviews and press conferences from Jupiter. (Please subscribe to the YouTube channel if you don't already do so!) Marlins Podcast Episodes View full article

Episode #213 With the 2024 season rapidly approaching, Ely questions why the Miami Marlins aren't re-investing more of their profits into building the best possible roster. Ely Sussman projects the Marlins' Opening Day payroll, then compares it to previous seasons and what other MLB teams are spending. The methodology used is very similar to this projection from mid-November. Last season, the Marlins sold 1,162,819 paid tickets to home games, by far their highest total of the Bruce Sherman ownership era. Earlier this month, they sold hundreds of thousands more while hosting the Caribbean Series at LoanDepot Park. Despite previous concerns that their lucrative local television deal could be in jeopardy due to Diamond Sports Group's bankruptcy proceedings, that situation has since calmed down (at least for the 2024 season). On top of that, they continue to be one of Major League Baseball's revenue-sharing recipients. So...where is all of this money going? Find The Offishial Show on the Fish On First YouTube channel, our new-look Apple Podcasts channel and wherever else you get your pods. FOF's audio programming also includes Fish Unfiltered, Big Fish Small Pod, Swimming Upstream and more. Projecting 2024 Marlins Opening Day payroll Josh Bell—$16.5M Avisaíl García—$12M Luis Arraez—$10.6M Sandy Alcantara—$9.3M Tanner Scott—$5.7M Jesús Luzardo—$5.5M Jon Berti—$3.625M Matt Barnes—$2.75M (buyout) Jazz Chisholm Jr.—$2.625M Johnny Cueto—$2.5M (buyout) Jesús Sánchez—$2.1M Christian Bethancourt—$2.05M A.J. Puk—$1.8M Trevor Rogers—$1.53M JT Chargois—$1.285M Nick Gordon—$900k Anthony Bender—$770k Filling active roster with 12 pre-arb players at approx. $753.3k each—$9.04M That adds up to $90.575M. Per Cot's Contracts, that number was $92.575M entering the 2023 season. The Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates are spending significantly less on their projected rosters, but the Marlins could rank as low as 28th in MLB unless they make additions between now and Opening Day. How do you feel about this? Do you think the Marlins should be required to spend at a certain level, or do you not care as long as the team is competitive? Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View full article

On The Offishial Show, Ely Sussman takes us through his step-by-step projection of the Marlins' Opening Day payroll. View full video