Jesús Luzardo for Vinnie Pasquantino trade rumor doesn't add up

At the Winter Meetings earlier this month, the Miami Marlins discussed a potential franchise-altering trade that would have sent Jesús Luzardo to the Kansas City Royals for Vinnie Pasquantino, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Rosenthal implies that it was the Royals who decided not to proceed, instead bolstering their starting rotation via free agency without having to sacrifice their talented first baseman.

In a vacuum, it's unsurprising that the Marlins would want "The Pasquatch." The 2019 draft pick thrived at every level of the minor leagues. After initially slumping following his 2022 midseason call-up, he was among MLB's hottest hitters over the last two-plus months of the season. Pasquantino possesses terrific contact skills, even against same-handed pitching. He's drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts in the majors while also generating average-ish power.

Pasquantino was on an All-Star trajectory through the first quarter of the 2023 campaign. However, his stats cratered after that, and then on June 9, he tore the labrum in his right shoulder. The subsequent surgery sidelined him for the rest of the season. He finished with replacement-level production in 61 games played (.247/.324/.437, 103 wRC+ in 260 PA).

Assuming a clean bill of health, Pasquantino is projected by both ZiPS (128 OPS+) and Steamer (128 wRC+) to revert to his rookie form. He insists on Twitter that the shoulder issues are fully behind him:

Pasquantino would make Miami's offense better than it currently projects to be in 2024, occupying first base or the DH spot on a near-daily basis (whichever one Josh Bell isn't playing). The most appealing part? He's still two years away from arbitration eligibility and five years away from free agency.

Trade young pitching for Pasquantino? I could see it. But Jesús Luzardo?! Not unless there are additional substantial assets coming to the Marlins in return. Even then, they'd have to be the right ones.

Luzardo has made all 44 of his scheduled starts since returning from a forearm strain in mid-2022. He's been the ace of the Marlins during that span. "Trading him might be the best way for the Marlins to address offensive needs while guarding against Luzardo’s value diminishing as he gets more expensive," Rosenthal wrote in a separate column on Friday, citing his $5.9M arbitration projection.

To be clear, there is absolutely zero financial pressure on the Marlins to do that this offseason. A $5.9M salary is about half of what ho-hum back-end starters are getting in free agency. Eventually, though, Luzardo will be a rich man.

On Saturday, Tyler Glasnow is expected to finalize a contract extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers that values his early-30s free agent years at $30M apiece. For all of their stylistic differences, both Glasnow and Luzardo have lights-out stuff and fairly comparable results since "putting it all together" in recent seasons, plus they share a worrisome history when it comes to forearm/elbow injuries. Luzardo is on track to reach free agency entering his age-29 season, two years younger than Glasnow would have.

My Marlins offseason blueprint called for a $77.5M Luzardo extension. Unfortunately for the club, as much as the South Florida native might desire to spend the prime of his career in a familiar place, I underestimated the starting pitching market. Even being so far away from the open market, he wouldn't settle for that much of a discount. Glasnow's guarantee of $110M in new money now seems like the more appropriate benchmark. I have a difficult time imagining the Marlins going there.

The payday hasn't arrived yet and Luzardo's current healthy streak is highly encouraging. As a result, his trade value is peaking right now. While that does not mean the Marlins should look to move him, it does justify listening to what's out there.

This brings me back to Pasquantino—skilled hitter, seemingly awesome personality, coincidentally the same age as Luzardo (they were born 10 days apart), but not nearly as valuable. He's all the way at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, limited to first base and not particularly effective at the position. His two additional years of club control don't close the gap between them.

The Marlins have long-term uncertainty at the premium up-the-middle spots. Selling high on Luzardo is only justifiable if it helps them figure out their future at catcher, shortstop or center field. In Kansas City's case, if Pasquantino was packaged with Maikel García—another promising pre-arb player who would immediately become Miami's primary shortstop—that would have been something worth considering.

Remember how Luzardo got here in the first place, as the compensation that the Marlins received for pending free agent Starling Marte. His hard work has boosted his trade value by several multiples since then. In his first offseason on the job, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has the opportunity to flip him for a special haul if another team is desperate enough. If Bendix actually does view Luzardo as roughly equivalent to a Pasquantino type, he's in danger of botching this opportunity.