My 2023-24 Marlins offseason blueprint

All the moves that I would try to make if handed the keys to the front office.

Ely Sussman

Whoever takes over the Miami Marlins front office in the coming weeks has an intimidating assignment ahead of them. Even for the most brilliant mind, it will take a long time to put the organization on stable ground. This article details how I would spend the first winter in charge if Bruce Sherman were misguided enough to listen to me.

MLB teams must constantly self-assess where they stand on the present vs. future spectrum: “How are you prioritizing major league success during the current season compared to the long term?”

By the second half of the 2023 season, the Marlins had made an extreme shift toward the “present” side. They traded away several of their top prospects in win-now moves, challenged young pitchers with heavy workloads and paid half a million bucks for four innings’ worth of Matt Moore to push them across the finish line. On a scale of one to ten, where one represents a full-on rebuild and ten represents going all-in to win, the Marlins were a nine. As enjoyable as it was to cover, it felt over-aggressive. If Kim Ng had been operating with legit job security, I have to imagine the club’s approach would’ve been more measured.

My offseason plan involves recalibrating to a seven out of ten on that aforementioned scale. The Marlins have alienated their fans in the past by taking a significant step back following every postseason appearance. There needs to be some urgency about snapping that cycle in 2024, while also stopping short of depleting an already-weak farm system and accepting that Sherman’s budget will be lower than that of most other MLB teams.

The blueprint below basically goes in chronological order from early November through pre-Opening Day extension talks, concluding with an overview of what my version of the 2024 Marlins would look like.

2024 Contract Options

  • 1B Josh Bell opts out
  • Marlins exercise UTIL Jon Berti‘s club option ($3.625M salary)
  • Marlins decline RHP Matt Barnes‘ club option ($2.75M buyout)
  • Marlins decline RHP Johnny Cueto‘s club option ($2.5M buyout)

I have spent too much time trying to anticipate what Bell will do with his option. It could go either way. He’s been a replacement-level player over his last 200 games, which ordinarily would merit far less than a $16.5M salary. On the other hand, his most recent two months of performance fell in line with his above-average career norms. If forced to pick a side, I predict he’ll opt out.

Jorge Soler already made his decision to test free agency, as announced by the Marlins on Thursday. It was a no-brainer. Some team should be willing to give him Mitch Haniger money (3/$43.5M) given the dearth of high-end power bats in this free agent class.

Despite their valuable contributions to the Marlins offense this season, I’m not eager to retain Bell or Soler at their fair market price. It’s just too inefficient. They have both had prolonged stretches of inconsistency in their recent past. Also, I inevitably will be going outside the organization to address the team’s premium defensive positions and pitching staff—resources need to be preserved for those items.

I have previously written about Miami’s 2024 club options. Those are easy calls.

Rule 5 Draft Protections

You’re probably thinking, “Are there really that many players from this struggling farm system who are worth protecting?” In a vacuum, no. I don’t think all of them would be selected in the Rule 5, but it’s better to be safe than sorry when there is so little interesting depth behind them in the pipeline.

Mesa is going to be my everyday center fielder at Triple-A Jacksonville. Johnston is making the Marlins Opening Day roster unless he poops the bed during spring training. I’d like to find out whether he can fake it in left field in addition to playing first base. Give Nuñez’s bat another year to develop and ensure that teams enamored with his defense and baserunning can’t snatch him away to fill out their bench. Maldonado will be in serious contention to crack the major league bullpen after steamrolling Triple-A competition.

Other notable Rule 5 guys coming off productive 2023 campaigns include Will Banfield, Luarbert Arias and Griffin Conine.

This far in advance, it would be pure guesswork to project which quality prospects will be eligible to draft from other organizations. Considering that the Marlins find themselves in the bottom half of the draft order and—under my direction—are still motivated to win now, I’m sitting out the major league phase of the Rule 5.

After accommodating Mesa, Johnston, Nuñez and Maldonado while also bringing back Max Meyer, Trevor Rogers, Anthony Bender and Tommy Nance from the 60-day injured list, the Marlins 40-man roster is full.

Roster Casualties

To create more breathing room, I’m ready to turn the page on two veterans who are far removed from their respective primes after back-to-back disappointing seasons.

It is time to bite the bullet on García, whose acquisition was the worst free agent deal in Marlins history. He is a classic sunk cost, having struck out in 30% of his Marlins plate appearances—he hasn’t provided nearly enough run production to offset that. Can’t count on him staying healthy, either. Is it possible that something clicks with his plate approach and he rediscovers his previous form as a lifetime average-ish MLB hitter? Yes, but that likelihood is so remote, I’d rather have the extra roster spot. I still owe García $29M, including $12M in 2024.

Entering his final year of arbitration eligibility, Stallings is projected for a $3.6M salary, per MLB Trade Rumors. That’s tolerable for an experienced, defense-first backup. Problem is, Stallings’ defense has been decisively below average as a Marlin, and even by catcher standards, his bat is impotent. With Sandy Alcantara sidelined throughout next season (Stallings caught every Alcantara pitch in 2022 and 2023), I cannot justify keeping the soon-to-be 34-year-old.

Now, for the fun stuff…

Free Agency

I believe the qualifying offer value exceeds any 2024 salary that Soler will be presented with in free agency. However, there are far greater multi-year guarantees awaiting him. By rejecting the QO and ultimately landing elsewhere, the Marlins get a compensatory draft pick. That pick would likely come after Competitive Balance Round B, but there’s an outside shot of it falling between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A if the bidding war escalates to at least $50M.

Duvall comes with a steeper price tag than he did when the Marlins previously signed him three years ago. During the interim, he slashed .229/.286/.479 (102 wRC+) and produced 5.5 fWAR, homering 71 times in what amounted to two full seasons’ worth of playing time. He’s still capable of playing every outfield position at age 35. Best-case scenario, I get the 2021 version of Duvall, but the reasonable expectation for him is a good platoon player and clubhouse presence.

I won’t be scared away by Peralta’s 5.06 FIP. He’s a groundball machine who has repeatedly outperformed his peripherals. The veteran lefty’s fit with this Marlins roster will make more sense once you peruse my trades.

Every starting pitcher in Flaherty’s price range comes with some warts, but I like his upside way more than, say, Johnny Cueto, who got similar money last offseason. The right-hander’s fastball velocity has been in gradual decline. It would behoove him to put more trust in his changeup, and what better place to improve your changeup than the Marlins organization? The performance bonuses in this contract are $1M apiece for making 15, 20, 25 and 30 regular season starts.

I would be handing out more than four MiLB deals to fill up big league camp. I’m just highlighting Davis, Sanó, Turnbull and Bleier as viable candidates to squeeze onto the Opening Day roster depending on injuries and other unforeseen events.

Trades

Edman becomes my starting shortstop for 2024. Over the last two seasons, he has played more defensive innings there than at any other position, and he’s handled the assignment well. He’s a major upgrade over Joey Wendle in terms of run production and baserunning, plus he’s under club control through 2025. Herrera is a lifetime .280/.391/.432 hitter in the minors who’s coming off his best offensive season yet. He’ll battle against Nick Fortes for an Opening Day job.

I’m lower than most on Cabrera. I don’t see a scenario where he becomes a consistently great starting pitcher. I’m not even certain that he’s a top-five starter in my Sandy-less rotation. The Cardinals would undoubtedly appreciate him more. Miller is a 2022 draft pick who had an okay Low-A campaign. A contact-hitting utility guy, Sanoja is intriguing yet replaceable. Mack is far more talented than last season’s 69 wRC+ would imply. Compared to Herrera, his developmental timeline aligns better with Willson Contreras’ contract.

Vásquez likely opens up next season in the Triple-A rotation. He figures to be a frequent flyer between Jacksonville and Miami. Hamilton impressed as a rookie and will be our go-to right-handed reliever in most high-leverage situations. Despite limited playing time, Higashioka has reached double-digit homers in three straight years. Solid backup catcher.

Scott was too good in 2023. I don’t have the budget to be committing $10M+ per year to any reliever over multiple years, and that’s what he would be looking for in extension talks considering his degree of dominance and his status as a pending free agent. Who knows if his past control issues are fully behind him, anyway. Too much risk for me. Losing De La Cruz hurts as well because there is a higher level he could potentially ascend to, but he still doesn’t have a firm grasp of the fundamentals entering his age-27 season.

Jiménez is my Soler replacement. Not as dangerous against lefties, but a better pure hitter who’s a lot younger. He has one more guaranteed year left on his then-historic, pre-debut extension. The White Sox have no path to contend in 2024, and frankly, Jiménez has had a frustrating career thus far. Due to injuries, he played even fewer games from 2021-2023 than Jazz Chisholm Jr. did. The cash in this trade represents the buyout of his 2025 or 2026 club option in case he disappoints, but I’m optimistic about getting three years out of him.

Soriano definitely upped his value over the last year. Sexy three-pitch mix. I still project him more as a middle reliever than a legit starter. Alderman is one of the few guys in the Marlins system with comparable raw power to Jiménez. Hasn’t played above Low-A yet, though.

Hampson, Okert and Nance are casualties of 40-man roster maintenance. Borden will report to Double-A and Mendez to High-A next season.

Contract Extensions

  • Marlins sign Luis Arraez to six-year, $92M extension with $16M vesting option for 2030
  • Marlins sign Jesús Luzardo to six-year, $77.5M extension with opt-out after 2027 season
  • Marlins sign Trevor Rogers to three-year, $17M extension with $12.5M club option for 2027 and $12.5M club option for 2028

The breakdown of Arraez’s extension is $12M in 2024 and $16M annually from 2025-29. His 2030 option vests if he places top 10 in the 2029 National League batting title race. It’s based loosely on the contract that DJ LeMahieu signed with the Yankees during the 2020-21 offseason.

There’s simply nobody else quite like Arraez. I trust him to come fairly close to sustaining what he’s done to this point in his career. He wants to be here and the fanbase adores him. Even assuming that he will gradually transition from second base to first base/DH, he’s worth the investment.

The breakdown of Luzardo’s extension is $5M in 2024, $10M in 2025, $12.5M in 2026, $15M in 2027 and $17.5M annually from 2028-29. It’s a less exploitative version of the extension that Sandy Alcantara signed during the 2021-22 offseason and edges out Eduardo Rodriguez’s guarantee from his 2021-22 free agent signing with the Detroit Tigers.

This deal structure gives me at least one extra year of club control over Luzardo while allowing him to test free agency right after his 30th birthday if he desires. The back end of the deal could become burdensome in the event of catastrophic injury, but it won’t be truly crippling to my competitive chances regardless.

The breakdown of Rogers’ extension is $2M in 2024, $5M in 2025 and $8M in 2026 with $2M buyouts for both of the option years. It carries a maximum value of $40M over the next five seasons if both options are exercised. It’s based loosely on the extension that Chris Paddack signed with the Minnesota Twins during the 2022-23 offseason.

I love this buy-low opportunity on somebody who still has mid-rotation starter upside. The majority of Rogers’ missed time in 2023 came as the result of a fluky injury to his non-throwing arm. He struggled in 2022, though not quite as much as his 75 ERA+ would suggest. Worst-case scenario, I can see him reinventing himself as a two-pitch reliever.

I would also attempt to negotiate with Jazz Chisholm Jr. on a deal in the five-year, $50 million range, but I don’t think we’d be able to find common ground on that.

How these pieces fit together

I’m envisioning an Opening Day rotation of Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Jack Flaherty and Trevor Rogers. The depth behind them includes Max Meyer, Ryan Weathers, Randy Vásquez and Patrick Monteverde.

Keep in mind, Skip Schumaker is still the Marlins manager in this hypothetical. He’s not beholden to using one specific guy as closer, but I figure he would put A.J. Puk first in line for save opportunities—Puk quietly finished 2023 on a high note.

Compared to where we stood at the end of 2023, the catcher and shortstop situations have been clearly upgraded. I feel left field is also in better hands, but there’s room for debate on that. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is overdue for a healthy season…right? Hopefully, Troy Johnston hits the ground running at first base. If he flops, the fallback plan would be for Jake Burger to take over and patch together third base with Jon Berti and Xavier Edwards.

Accounting for all of the guaranteed contracts, the buyouts of club options, the projected salaries of arbitration-eligible players via MLB Trade Rumors and the pre-arb players needed to fill out the roster, these Marlins would have an Opening Day payroll of approximately $107M. If the postseason is within reach, Sherman will give me some wiggle room to add more as the season progresses.

Despite my best efforts, I can’t say I’m confident in these Marlins immediately making it back to the postseason. There’s a lot of dead money on the books while Sandy Alcantara rehabs and Avisaíl García explores other opportunities. The departures of Jorge Soler and Josh Bell hurt, and even with them in the fold, they were outscored by opposing teams. Several talented but unestablished players must exceed expectations—I’m specifically looking at Meyer, Weathers and Herrera.

What’s your favorite move of mine? Your least favorite? The most unrealistic? Comment below to let me know.

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

7 responses to “My 2023-24 Marlins offseason blueprint”

  1. Avatar
    Anonymous

    I like the extensions, I’d offer Arraez 100 mm to keep him. Like also idea of trading Scott, he was great but I could see a team overpaying for a dominant LH RP

    Put Amaya at SS since it saves money, now with Bell at first our IF is set. I’d look to trade an OF to Cleveland for whatever their willing. We have too many corner OF types.

    Also would sign a number 2 starter, and attempt to flip one of our SP for either a SS or CF and put Jazz in other spot

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Anonymous

    Just want to throw a few personal opinions into the fire.
    Duval is a pretty good ballplayer and his production is somewhat predictable and no longer has an upside beyond that level. DLC is much younger, less expensive, and does have an upside. I wouldn’t exchange them.
    The starting SS that you propose is a mediocrity at best. Put some of the money that you saved on Duval and will save on Rogers, if it were my choice, and either do better, or give Amaly a shot. I’d love to see Nunez there in another year or this year if all else fails. With Johnston, Jazz, Edwards, and Nunez on the base paths, it could cause rival pitchers a major concern.
    I would NEVER trade Cabrara. A pitcher goes 6 innings, gives up 6 hits and walks 2 and he is praised. Cabrara gives up 2 hits and walks 6 and gets sent down! And none of those walks get hit over a wall. We have already seen at least 3 of the pitchers that the Marlins have passed on do extremely well. And that doesn’t include Lopez.
    I would NEVER trade Scott either. Everyone was upset when Ng didn’t get a closer. Now we’ve got one and you want to trade him because he might not be as effective. Any replacement might not be effective either, go with what ya got.
    I too hope that Johnston transfers well to the ML. He would be my DH. He demonstrated a good pair of iron hands in the field last Spring. That scared me. A perfect DH if he hits like he has been doing down at AAA.
    I sometimes feel that the Marlins ignore talent or put too much hope in another who demonstrates a lack of such. Edwards is a case in point. The guy can hit and hit for average. I would place him at 2B and leave him there, period. He is faster than Arraez, so he would lead off while Arraez hits second. That should be something to appreciate. The idea of hitting Soler second was a major misplacement. 36 HRs and only about 75 RBIs?
    The idea of acquiring a catcher is imperative, but I want Fortes in there as the main man. This team must win via pitching in this division and Fortes is within their age group and is a fine defensive catcher. He is a much better hitter than he showed last year. His problem was pitch selection, and to some extent, that can be rectified via coaching. I would sink or swim with him as the main man. Guy’s got a good level swing.
    Rogers should not be offered a multi-year contract until he proves himself. I would try to lock up Luzardo, however. Garrett as well.
    If I were to pick (and hope) for a surprise roster player it would be Ryan Weathers.
    I would not get rid of Sixto just yet. If you have to get rid of a roster player, Burdick would be my choice.
    Lastly there is the Garcia problem. Personally, I can’t picture our esteemed owner cutting that salary loose. Sanchez has done a pretty good job of showing that he can’t hit lefties. Why not at least have Garcia be his opposite side partner. If Garcia hits at all, it would be an improvement over Sanchez’ futility in that role. I view Sanchez has a Jazz light.
    Now go get a SS who can hit a little and 2 RH relief pitchers and fight for 3rd place.

    Reply
    1. OneRegend Avatar
      OneRegend

      Sorry, but I have to disagree with you on Garcia. He’s just as good against lefties as Jesus Sanchez. In that, they are both shit against lefties to a hilarious degree. Don’t fool yourself into thinking Garcia will be any better as a platoon bat, because then you’ll just delve deep into the same sunk-cost fallacy that has handcuffed the Marlins. You’ll be doing yourself a favor by not wanting him back.

      Reply
  3. OneRegend Avatar
    OneRegend

    Interesting choice to sign a choke artist like Luzardo to a 6 year premium. He cant perform during big games ever in his career, and even in the one game he did (the suspended game), it ultimately ended up not mattering in the end. I don’t give 6 year extensions to guys who can’t step it up during meaningful games. I would personally let him test the market earlier, or swing a trade and hope some other playoff-hopeful gets suckered into taking him on.

    I also don’t agree with signing Trevor Rogers. He hasn’t been healthy OR productive in the past 2 and a half seasons, and until he proves he can stick in a major league rotation for a full season, he’s prone to being placed on the waiver wire.

    Ultimately, I don’t see it being worth it to try and play for a playoff spot this year. 2023 was our best chance to do anything with this core, and they didn’t even come close to doing anything in the playoffs. Years of bad drafting and mostly bad trades has left this player core with a 1-year contention window. Best to just blow it up and try again in 3-4 years, and hope *that* core doesn’t end up being one-year wonder.

    Reply
    1. tpjoseph Avatar
      tpjoseph

      I enjoyed Ely’s article and certainly compliment him on the depth of insight. Generally, though, I agree with you that an above-average win-now strategy is untenable. There is no chance of repeating the unicorn 2023 year, nor will we be as lucky vis-a-vis the Mets again. Accordingly, No problem with Bell leaving and using the year to define the future strategy. This means deciding on arb-eligible players, clearing the deadwood, absorbing the sunk costs (including Alcántara’s lost year), and thoroughly vetting Amaya, Myers, Johnston, and Edwards. Play them or trade them. Avoid obligatory middling FA signings for their own sake. While I agree with Ely that the fan base will howl over a regression, there is precious little that can be reasonably done to avoid it. Let’s get a young, creative brain trust in there to build a long-term organizational culture. Gave an aggressive, feisty team under Skip and work a plan a la Houston and Baltimore. Eschew middling patchwork players like Rosario or IKF. Haven’t we learned these lessons yet? Even a long journey starts sometime and this is it, optics be damned.

      Reply
      1. OneRegend Avatar
        OneRegend

        Agreed. The fanbase is going to hate another rebuild, but it’s the right thing to do. Too many things went wrong with this current rebuild, and it ultimately cut their contention window much shorter than it could have been. Best to just try again with a wholly new core of homegrown players entirely.

  4. Kommenter Avatar
    Kommenter

    Great article. Well thought out and well written. I only have a few quibbles. First, leaving Banfield unprotected unless we land at least one of the catchers mentioned before the rule 5 draft, especially considering the likely non tender of Stallings. Can’t we release Sixto and protect Will?
    Second, I don’t trust Puk nearly as much as Tanner Scott as closer. Blown saves obviously hurt us in the loss column, but are morale killers. A good closer is worth a lot, in my humble.
    Third, I don’t think Rogers merits a long term contract. In fact, I think there is a chance he never returns to his peak year performance.

    Reply

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