5 absurd Marlins deals that Baseball Trade Values validates

For years, I've been using Baseball Trade Values, particularly their trade simulator. In the pre-BTV era, it was often difficult to quickly compare the relative values of players when they have vastly different MLB track records and contractual situations. Their propriety formula distills thousands of active major leaguers and minor leaguers into a single number, approximating their surplus value in dollars. I recommend it...as long as you simulate responsibly.

The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that mocking "fair" trades continues to be difficult. BTV is occasionally outdated or simply off the mark on certain players. More importantly, aligning the values on both sides is only part of the battle! Proposals ought to help the teams involved actually accomplish something and complement what they already have.

If you ignore realistic scenarios and just focus on ways to hypothetically make a team better, you can have a lot of fun. Let's try that for the Miami Marlins.

The only players I decided were off limits when cooking up these proposals: players with full no-trade protection (Mike Trout, Salvador Pérez, Giancarlo Stanton, etc.); major league free agents who have signed this offseason (not eligible to be traded yet); and extremely expensive players whose salaries and/or total guaranteed contracts are incompatible with the frugal Marlins.

Each of the following deals were "validated" by the BTV trade simulator as of December 12, meaning the values of the players at the time fell within their model's margin for error.

Royals trade Maikel García to the Marlins for Steven Okert, Jordan Groshans, Jhon Cabral, Ryan Jensen and Victor Victor Mesa

García is already an average-ish MLB third baseman who could likely become an average-ish MLB shortstop if he were on a team with an opening at that position. He still has six years of club control ahead of him.

Respectfully, the Marlins would not miss any of the players being sent to Kansas City. Okert is their fourth-best left-handed reliever and he's out of minor league options. Groshans continues to slide down the defensive spectrum and still hasn't figured out how to tap into his power during games. Baseball America included Cabral on their 2023 midseason Marlins Top 30 prospects list despite being incapable of throwing strikes in rookie ball—BTV seems to have juiced his value based solely on that bold editorial decision. Jensen was a recent waiver claim. I'm surprised the Marlins haven't released Mesa by now.

Blue Jays trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Arjun Nimmala to the Marlins for Anthony Bender

Vladdy tied for the MLB lead with 48 home runs in 2021. He's been trending in the wrong direction since then, but is only entering his age-25 season!!! Although the Marlins would be hopeless to sign him long term in the event of a rebound, they'd jump at this buy-low opportunity, especially when the package also contains a top 2023 draft pick. Nimmala has an extraordinary ceiling and would unequivocally take over as Miami's best position player prospect.

Inexplicably, BTV values Anthony Bender highly enough to green-light this proposal. I was all about #BenderMania in early 2021. He held opponents without an earned run through his first 21 MLB games. In 61 appearances after that, Bender was totally unremarkable (3.94 ERA, 4.13 FIP and 0.27 WPA) and then he underwent Tommy John surgery. I'm not even confident in him making the Marlins Opening Day roster.

Mets trade Starling Marte, Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernández to the Marlins for Avisaíl García

It's a bad contract swap that would feel awfully good for Marlins fans. Marte's sub-replacement-level 2023 season was preceded by an All-Star campaign. Even if there has been a tangible degradation of athleticism since his Marlins days, Marte's hitting prowess gives him a path to being impactful again (health permitting). Peter Bendix gets to avenge one of Kim Ng's most notorious gaffes by reacquiring Vargas and Hernández (sent to New York in the David Robertson trade).

Despite being considerably younger than Marte, García will have a much harder time living up to the back half of his contract due to his swing-and-miss issues. He played only 135 games over the last two seasons.

Braves trade Sean Murphy to the Marlins for A.J. Puk

I realize that Murphy's bat was impotent after the All-Star break. However, during the first half of the same season, he was not far behind Ronald Acuña Jr. in the NL MVP conversation. He is, by any measure, an above-average MLB starting catcher who also happens to be under contract through his prime years, never exceeding a $15M salary through 2029. It seems to be a blatant BTV error that his surplus value has been lowered from $51.3M to $21.7M over the past year.

Puk was traded straight up for JJ Bleday in early 2023.

Phillies trade J.T. Realmuto and $11 million cash to the Marlins for Sixto Sánchez

Reversing course on a 2019 blockbuster! Presented without further comment.

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