Ely Sussman

I feel like there is too much emphasis being put on a single season. Prior to 2023, Burdick had never been above a 30 K% in any minor league season. He was in that "flawed player, but could do enough in other areas to still be helpful" category. For a team that is so thin on 2024 major league hitting options, I was pretty surprised that they would risk losing him for nothing just to make room for such an underwhelming arm.

Top plays from Marlins prospect Troy Johnston, who is a non-roster invitee at 2024 Spring Training. View full video

Top plays from Marlins prospect Patrick Monteverde, who is a non-roster invitee at 2024 Spring Training. View full video

Top plays from Marlins prospect Will Banfield, who is a non-roster invitee at 2024 Spring Training. View full video

Top plays from Marlins prospect Javier Sanoja, who is a non-roster invitee at 2024 Spring Training. View full video

Top plays from Marlins prospect Jacob Berry, who is a non-roster invitee at 2024 Spring Training. View full video

For the first time in six-plus years, there seems to be an industry consensus that the Marlins' prospect pipeline is in very bad shape. It's not exactly breaking news. This has been building for half a year following a season of lousy minor league performances, deflating injuries, substantial "win-now" trades and prospect graduations. We still had to wait for the dawn of Spring Training for reputable national outlets to update their MLB farm system rankings in concert. The Miami Marlins have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. When that was previously the case (following the 2017 season), new ownership detonated the major league roster to start fresh. This time around, the response has been a front office shake-up. The latter approach won't bear fruit immediately, hence the unsightly rankings below. Beneath each outlet's 2024 Marlins ranking, I've included the blurbs from their respective articles summarizing the current state of the system. Baseball America staff Ranked 27th entering 2024 (ranked 20th entering 2023) No one doubts Miami’s ability to scout, develop and graduate pitchers, and new additions like Noble Meyer and Thomas White add more firepower. But the system falls off quickly after that and has very little offensive impact talent to speak of, especially considering the rough start to pro ball that 2022 No. 6 pick Jacob Berry has had. Baseball Prospectus prospect staff Ranked 28th entering 2024 (ranked 23rd entering 2023) The Marlins bought at the last deadline, which did weaken the system a bit, but they’ve also dealt with pitcher injuries and have spent significant draft capital on prep arms that will take a while to develop. They should also probably stop immediately trading interesting Day Two draft picks to the Rays every year, that wouldn’t hurt. This is obviously going to be an organization in flux over the next calendar year as new POBO Peter Bendix puts his stamp on things. The Athletic's Keith Law Ranked 28th entering 2024 (ranked 21st entering 2023) The Marlins’ system has been depleted by some trades and some underwhelming drafts, plus some international free agents who’ve stalled out quickly in the low minors despite big tools. They do have pitching on the way, although it’s probably a few years out, while their position-player group is really light. Their draft last year started with two very high-upside high school pitchers, and if both stay healthy this year the top of the system will look quite a bit better. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel Ranked 29th entering 2024 (ranked 18th entering 2023) There have been solid recent graduations in Miami, with Eury Perez, Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera all either in the big league rotation or expected to join soon. I also liked the bold decision Miami made to take the top two prep pitchers in the 2023 draft—Noble Meyer and Thomas White—along with thumpers Kemp Alderman and Brock Vradenburg soon after. But there have also been some clear negative results in the system as of late. Dax Fulton was progressing well but got his second elbow surgery, Marco Vargas was traded to the Mets for a rental reliever (though the Fish made the playoffs), and there wasn't a notable jump forward in the system with a number of half or full steps back. After coming from the Rays, new President of Baseball Ops Peter Bendix will likely take an infrastructure-and-process oriented view to building things back up and there's a good bit of work to be done. View full article

It's an accurate summary. My only rebuttal is that the MLB offseason as a whole has moved at a glacial pace. Waiting so long for substantial action may have lulled us to sleep, but it doesn't preclude a surprise or two from happening before the season begins.

Marlins news roundup for 2/9/24 Here's what you should know with 48 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... 🔹 Thursday's Caribbean Series scores: the Dominican Republic defeated Panamá, 4-1, and Venezuela defeated Curacao, 6-2, to advance to tonight's final. The earlier game was supposed to be played under an open roof, but some unexpected precipitation forced a change of plans. 🔹 The Marlins signed LHP Kent Emanuel to a minor league deal, per Craig Mish of SportsGrid. The 31-year-old has a nice track record of strike-throwing in the minors, but he's made only 10 appearances in the majors (all of those with the 2021 Astros). Pitching for Pittsburgh's Triple-A affiliate last season, Emanuel yielded a .930 OPS to right-handed batters, so it might be time to limit him to short relief work where he could operate with a platoon advantage more frequently. 🔹 Mish tweets that it "looks like" the Marlins will sign a free agent shortstop, but he isn't quite willing to guarantee that. 🔹 Although the Marlins still haven't updated their website to reflect it, the club's bobblehead giveaways this season will feature Jake Burger on May 19, Eury Pérez on June 2, Dontrelle Willis on June 9 and Luis Arraez on August 25 (h/t @enrique5026/Twitter). 🔹 Rewatch this week's Fish On First LIVE for our takes on recent acquisitions Jonah Bride and Declan Cronin. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks! If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔹 Christina De Nicola's Marlins Beat newsletter answers some frequently asked questions about Spring Training. 🔹 The final part of the Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers series on Marlins uniform numbers covers No. 61-99. 🔹 Designated for assignment by the Marlins earlier this week, both Jordan Groshans and Kaleb Ort remain in limbo. 🔹 Finland's Tomi Korkeamaki describes the roots of his Marlins fandom on the Baseball Bucket List podcast (embedded below). Marlins Podcast Episodes View full article

Right after you put this up, Jonah Bride arrived. If he doesn't squeeze onto the active roster, he'll see a lot of action in AAA. Hit a career-high 13 HR in a half-season at AAA last year, but leaving the juiced offensive environment of Las Vegas, I think that total would come down.

As a rookie, Pérez's groundball rate was among the lowest in Major League Baseball. Is that something to be concerned about? Eury Pérez is following closely in the footsteps of Sandy Alcantara. The Miami Marlins ace recognized Pérez's potential when he was still a prospect. Since then, Alcantara has eagerly advised his fellow Dominican on how to navigate his career, on and off the field. Fittingly, he was the one who delivered the news of Pérez's call-up last May. Pérez is gifted enough to someday match or even surpass Alcantara's achievements, but he'll have to arrive at those results in a much different way. Alcantara's signature pitch has been his sinker. Pairing elite velocity with nasty movement, it's the key to how he induces hundreds of groundballs every season. According to FanGraphs, the MLB groundball rate annually hovers around 43%; Alcantara has exceeded that in each of his six Marlins campaigns, averaging a 50.6 GB% since 2018. As permanently inscribed on his wrist, the groundball double play is Alcantara's best friend (no offense, Eury). Meanwhile, Pérez did not use a single sinker as a rookie in 2023. He throws just as hard as Alcantara, but that's where their fastball similarities end. "Baby Goat" found immediate success in Miami despite a bizarre batted ball profile. Pérez's groundball rate was only 25.4%, per FanGraphs. Among all pitchers who completed at least 90 innings in the majors last season, he ranked dead last. Should the Marlins be worried? Generally, a pitcher's ideal outcome for any plate appearance is a strikeout. But when that is not attainable, a grounder is a solid alternative. During the 2023 season, MLB hitters collectively posted a .336 batting average and .560 slugging percentage on batted balls, according to Baseball Savant. For batted balls that stayed on the ground, their production plummeted to a .248 batting average and .273 slugging percentage. Compared to other batted ball types, the defense behind you is more likely to convert grounders into outs, and the risk of allowing extra-base hits is practically non-existent. Eury Pérez induced grounders at a pretty normal frequency while ascending through the minor leagues. He has posted a 40.0 GB% in 191 ⅔ career MiLB innings pitched. In his two separate stints with Double-A Pensacola last season (totaling 36.2 IP), he had a 45.9 GB%, which was even above the Southern League average. Although Pérez hit the ground running (pun intended), solidifying his place in the Marlins starting rotation as a 20-year-old, opponents were constantly launching his pitches. Only one of his 19 Marlins starts included a groundball rate above 50% and only two topped 40%. He even had an outing with zero grounders allowed (Sept. 14 vs. Brewers). Not only was Pérez's groundball rate the lowest of any MLB starter with a comparable workload in 2023: it was on pace to be the third-lowest single-season mark for a qualified starter in the entire Sports Info Solutions era (2002-present). FanGraphs uses SIS for GB%. The table below shows all of the qualified starter seasons from 2002-2023 that had grounders account for less than one-third of batted balls allowed: The first thing I noticed was the prevalence of Chris Young. The All-Star right-hander turned World Series-winning executive has been the only pitcher over the last two-plus decades to maintain a sub-Eury GB% throughout a qualified season. All four qualified seasons of his career comfortably fit within this screenshot. Coincidentally, Young (listed at 6'10") is one of very few pitchers in MLB history who was even taller than the 6'8" Pérez. I don't think that is particularly relevant to this analysis, though. Pérez does not leverage his immense stature the way you might expect—by vertical release height, he is only slightly above the league average. Pérez posted an excellent 72 ERA- last season (100 represents average). Several other pitchers here have shown it's possible to pair that performance with extreme flyball tendencies: Justin Verlander in 2018 (AL Cy Young award runner-up), Max Scherzer in 2016 (NL Cy Young winner), Jered Weaver in 2011 (AL Cy Young runner-up), Ted Lilly in 2009 and Jarrod Washburn in 2002. Collectively, however, this group is unremarkable. The median ERA- of their seasons is just 96. There's seemingly no correlation between suppressing grounders and suppressing runs. I don't believe that Eury Pérez was doing this by design, nor should he if he aspires to fill Sandy Alcantara's shoes in 2024. There was a full-run gap between his ERA (3.15) and FIP (4.11). He was too susceptible to "barrels" (10.7 Barrel% vs. the 6.9% MLB average). Some good fortune was on his side. That's why every projection system sees him taking a step back as a sophomore. With that being said, projection systems are blind to the possibility of players making adjustments. There is an obvious one for Pérez to consider: incorporating more changeups. Pérez established himself as a phenomenal prospect in part due to how advanced his changeup was. As explained to Fish On First, though, he has seldom used it in The Show so far because he was getting acclimated to throwing MLB baseballs; in the Southern League, he had been using an experimental "tacky" ball instead. His changeup command lacked consistency in 2023, often missing his spots by too much to entice opponents to swing. From Alex Chamberlain's pitch leaderboard, here are the groundball rates that hitters had against Pérez when plate appearances ended with different pitch types: Four-seam fastball—15.5 GB% (129 batted ball events) Slider—37.3 GB% (67 BBE) Curveball—42.9 GB% (21 BBE) Changeup—62.5 GB% (16 BBE) Lance Brozdowski reports that Pérez's changeup usage was approximately 14% in the minors compared to 9.8% as a Marlin. If he regains trust in his offspeed offering, that should lead to more innocuous grounders and a more well-rounded batted ball diet moving forward. Pérez must also be careful with where he locates his four-seamer. It has exceptional spin that plays well up in the strike zone, but when it lands in a hittable area, major leaguers have the reaction time to catch up to high-90s velo and do serious damage against it. Four-seamers are responsible for 10 of the 15 home runs he surrendered during his rookie campaign. Is there anything else that you think could be contributing to Eury's batted ball distribution? Let me know in the comments! View full article

With Amaya, I saw a guy who had an extraordinarily month of production in May and was otherwise a very underwhelming player. It was disappointing that he didn't get a longer look once he was called up, but he simply didn't force the issue again during the second half of the season. Would've been brought up if it was clear that he'd be a significant upgrade over their veteran alternatives.

From Fish On First LIVE, Ely Sussman and Daniel Rodriguez revisit the blockbuster trade that sent All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies for Sixto Sánchez, Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart and international bonus pool money. Catcher has been a position of weakness for the Marlins ever since. View full video

Not so sure about that being the plan haha. We will get clarity from the team soon, but I figure they would have announced him as an infielder/catcher in the official transaction if that was top of mind. Unless Bride spent a lot of his offseason preparing to catch, he's likely only an emergency option there for 2024.

For more than a decade, the popular Effectively Wild podcast has done an annual series of guest episodes in which they invite writers who cover each of the 30 MLB teams to give their thoughts for the upcoming season. These are typically the most credible and knowledgeable writers in the business. Very exciting to have Fish On First's own Kevin Barral held in that regard! On Episode 2121 of Effectively Wild (posted on Wednesday), co-hosts Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley interview Kevin about the Marlins' front office changes, lack of offseason player acquisitions, expectations for the 2024 season and more. Kevin's segment is embedded below. Listen to the full episode by subscribing to Effectively Wild wherever you get your pods. You think he did well enough to get invited back in 2025? 😅