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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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Entering Winter Meetings, Marlins still have so much to do
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
Left before the offseason even began, but yes.- 4 replies
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Offishial news, 12/4/23: Jim Leyland to Cooperstown; Gabe Cap-ler to Miami
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Marlins Podcast Episodes The Baseball Hall of Fame's Contemporary Baseball Era Committee elected Jim Leyland to Cooperstown on Sunday. In addition to the Marlins, Leyland managed the Pirates, Rockies and Tigers as well as Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. He'll be formally inducted next summer as part of the HOF's Class of 2024.Gabe Kapler cleverly confirmed his hiring as assistant general manager by recording a video of himself buying a Marlins hat from a Champs Sports store.https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0ZW6wFLnIj/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==Elsewhere around baseball, the Braves and Mariners made a five-player trade involving Jarred Kelenic. Once regarded as one of baseball's elite prospects, Kelenic is still only 24 years old, though he's been only slightly better than a replacement-level player through his first 252 MLB games. The Kelenic acquisition closes the door on Eddie Rosario returning to Atlanta. In case you missed it, Kevin Barral wrote about Rosario as a possible free agent target for Miami. Korean center fielder Jung Hoo Lee is being posted by the Kiwoom Heroes today. I wouldn't be shocked if the Marlins have some involvement in the Lee sweepstakes.Nick Pollack of Pitcher List breaks down the Marlins' 2024 starting rotation options.In talking to a number of front office executives and evaluators about potential Rule 5 Draft selections, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports that unprotected Marlins prospects Troy Johnston, Nasim Nuñez and Will Banfield are generating interest. I said it last month and I'll reiterate it here: if the Marlins lose Johnston, it will be an inexcusable and completely unforced error.Fish On First has partnered with the Marlins Discord server. You can join the server for free to participate in around-the-clock Fish talk. There is also a private channel reserved for our valued Super Subscribers.The Marlins teased that they'll be posting a special video of some kind to their social media accounts today. It's probably not related to this, but the team is now seeking 2024 interns in the group sales & services, information technology and human resources departments.We have boots on the ground at the MLB Winter Meetings! Be sure to follow Isaac Azout if you don't already.Graphic courtesy of Miami Marlins -
Former Marlins manager Jim Leyland elected to Baseball Hall of Fame
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
What a way to kickstart the MLB Winter Meetings. Jim Leyland is part of the National Baseball Hall of Fame's Class of 2024, as announced on Sunday. The longtime manager was a near-unanimous selection by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee, receiving 15 of the 16 possible votes (12 votes were needed for election). In Leyland's two seasons with the Florida Marlins, he was at the helm of arguably the best team in franchise history (1997)...and inarguably the worst (1998). He led the Fish to their first-ever World Series title, racking up 92 wins, which still stands as a Marlins single-season record. "It was the best team in baseball that year and I think we ended up proving that," Leyland said Sunday night on a media conference call. "We had a lot of stars on that team. A lot of people could've managed that team." During the subsequent offseason, at the behest of owner Wayne Huizenga, the Marlins held their first and most notorious fire sale. Moises Alou, Kevin Brown, Jeff Conine, Al Leiter, Robb Nen and other valuable veteran players were traded before Opening Day; Bobby Bonilla, Charles Johnson and Gary Sheffield followed suit early the next year. The 1998 Marlins went 54-108. Combining both years, Leyland had a .451 regular season winning percentage in Florida (146-178 record). He resigned after the '98 campaign. Despite the awkward exit, Leyland has been involved in Marlins alumni events, most recently the 25th anniversary celebration of the '97 team, which was held at LoanDepot Park in 2022. Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On FirstLeyland also managed the Pittsburgh Pirates (1986-1996), Colorado Rockies (1999) and Detroit Tigers (2006-2013) as well as Team USA during the 2017 World Baseball Classic. He's 18th on the all-time managerial wins list. Leyland was the lone manager/executive/umpire to get elected by the committee this year. His formal induction will take place next summer in Cooperstown, New York alongside whichever players get at least 75% support from the Baseball Writers' Association of America. One of those players on the BBWAA ballot? Gary Sheffield, who Leyland managed with both the Marlins and Tigers. Sheffield's in his 10th and final year of BBWAA eligibility. "I think there was quite a long period of time that Gary Sheffield was the most-feared right-handed hitter in baseball," Leyland says. "I'm obviously pulling for him...Hopefully, Sheff's time is gonna come." Photo by Al Tielemans/Sports Illustrated -
A month removed from hiring Peter Bendix to lead their baseball operations department, the Miami Marlins delegation is arriving at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center in Nashville, Tennessee for the annual MLB Winter Meetings. They aren't realistic suitors for the much-buzzed-about Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto, but it could still be a busy week for a club that would be unfit for postseason contention if the 2024 campaign began today. As a refresher, here's how the Marlins roster has changed during the 2023-24 offseason (you can get up to speed about off-the-field moves with this tracker). Offseason additions: UTIL Vidal Bruján, RHP Calvin Faucher, RHP Ryan Jensen, RHP Kaleb OrtOffseason subtractions: RHP Matt Barnes*, RHP Johnny Cueto*, OF Jonathan Davis*, 1B Yuli Gurriel*, UTIL Garrett Hampson, RHP Tommy Nance*, RHP David Robertson*, DH/OF Jorge Soler*, C Jacob Stallings*, IF Joey Wendle*Still available in free agency Pre-Winter Meetings Marlins 40-man rosterNearly half of these 40-man players have less than a full year of MLB service. The Marlins lost an All-Star to free agency and have a second one, Sandy Alcantara, who'll be stuck on the injured list throughout next season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Let's get more specific about what areas must be addressed. CatcherPhoto by Danis Sosa/Fish On FirstLast season showed that it's possible to be competitive even with poor catcher production. However, it's not possible to pull that off with one catcher on your team. After non-tendering Stallings, Nick Fortes is Miami's only viable option behind the plate. Will Banfield is the organization's top catching prospect, but that isn't saying much—the Marlins didn't regard him highly enough to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Banfield (assuming he makes it through the Rule 5) and Paul McIntosh should be getting spring training invites. Somebody needs to be ahead of them on the depth chart, though. The Marlins have checked in on longtime Houston Astro and current free agent Martín Maldonado, according to Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Maldonado can be had on a cheap, one-year deal. The best free agents available at the position are Mitch Garver and Gary Sánchez, both of whom provide enticing offensive upside, but come with concerns regarding their durability and consistency, respectively. My preference would be trading for a veteran like Elias Díaz (Colorado Rockies) or Kyle Higashioka (New York Yankees). ShortstopThe Marlins' outlook at shortstop is only marginally better than catcher. Wendle and Hampson combined to start two-thirds of their games at SS in 2023 and have already found new homes. That leaves Jon Berti as the default starter with the recently acquired Bruján spelling him against some right-handed pitchers and Jacob Amaya waiting in the wings. There have been some Marlins fans clamoring for reigning International League batting champ Xavier Edwards to be rewarded with an expanded role. Although Edwards' pitch recognition and speed give him a solid offensive floor, much of that value would be negated by his sloppy shortstop defense. Unless he shows up to camp with revamped throwing mechanics, he cannot be trusted there. Amed Rosario is an intriguing bounce-back candidate (2.7 fWAR/4.2 bWAR in 2022, but 0.2 fWAR/0.4 bWAR in 2023). Would he be willing to sign a one-year, $10M-ish deal with a 2025 club option? Outside of him, the free agent shortstop crop is shallower than the old Clevelander pool. The Marlins' next pivot would have to be the trade market, where they'd likely be expected to part with valuable starting rotation depth in order to get a controllable SS solution. Innings EaterWhether it's for a catcher, shortstop or an impact bat further down the defensive spectrum, I'm expecting the Marlins to be forced to sacrifice young arms via trade. They got burned by Cueto in 2023, but it's important to learn from that miscalculation and roll the dice on another veteran stopgap of his ilk who's capable of lengthy starts. My Marlins offseason blueprint identified Jack Flaherty as an ideal pick-up, but early indications are that there's a strong enough starting pitching demand for relatively young guys like him to fetch multi-year guarantees. Maybe Martín Pérez instead? The Marlins farm system is depleted. Whatever new ideas that Bendix and Gabe Kapler bring to player development, they can only do so much without talent. The silver lining of potentially struggling at the major league level in 2024 would be reloading the system by selling vets at the trade deadline. Can't sell vets unless you have some in the first place! ExtensionsPhoto by Danis Sosa/Fish On FirstI won't spend much time on contract extensions here because those are generally sorted out toward the end of the offseason. I'll just reiterate how useful it has been for teams like the Rays to buy additional years of club control over core players while it's still efficient enough to do so. Luis Arraez is the Marlins' most obvious extension candidate, followed by Jesús Luzardo. It would be worthwhile to at least broach the subject with Eury Pérez, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and several others. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
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Bill Mueller hired, John Mabry promoted by Marlins
Ely Sussman replied to Kevin Barral's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
Final guaranteed year of Skip's contract, working for a boss who didn't hire him. He would rather go to war with coaches he knows well than burn bridges with those who he might want to reunite with someplace else in the future. -
Gabe Kapler joining Marlins as assistant general manager
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
Not necessarily! They kinda have complementary skills/backgrounds. Greenlee focuses on analytics, Ocampo on scouting and international operations, Kapler on player development in the U.S. and Chattin does administration duties/general oversight. I suppose if one of them gets the GM bump, it would be Chattin. -
Just in time for the MLB Winter Meetings, the Miami Marlins added more firepower to their front office on Friday by agreeing to hire Gabe Kapler, per Craig Mish of SportsGrid. Kapler will serve as assistant general manager with an emphasis on player development, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The hiring is "not yet official," Mish clarifies. You probably know Kapler primarily from his stints managing the Philadelphia Phillies (2018-2019) and San Francisco Giants (2020-2023). His clubs combined for a .526 winning percentage (456-411 record) and one postseason berth. Kapler also played 12 seasons in the majors as an outfielder, concluding with the 2009-2010 Tampa Bay Rays where he may have crossed paths with a young Peter Bendix. In between, Kapler spent three seasons as director of player development for the Los Angeles Dodgers. His tenure there (2015-2017) overlapped with the minor league careers of future like stars Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler and Julio Urías. Marlins principal owner Bruce Sherman has been blunt about the need for his organization to do a better job producing homegrown impact players. The 48-year-old Kapler gets the same title as Brian Chattin, Dan Greenlee and Oz Ocampo, the assistant GMs who Bendix inherited from the previous Marlins front office. This news comes just a few days after the hiring of Vinesh Kanthan as director of baseball operations. Kanthan will report to Chattin, Greenlee and Ocampo (and presumably Kapler as well). It must be mentioned: Skip Schumaker has only one guaranteed year remaining on his contract. The reigning NL Manager of the Year told Fish On First that he and Bendix have "had a lot of really good conversations" and communicate daily, but it's not uncommon for a new front office boss to handpick their own manager. If the Marlins take a significant step backwards competitively in 2024, I wouldn't be shocked if Schumaker leaves the organization and Kapler replaces him in the dugout. Photo courtesy of gabekapler/Instagram
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Offishial news, 12/1/23: Kyle Tyler signing; massive MLB moves coming?
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Marlins Podcast Episodes Thursday's winter ball notes: In Venezuela, LF Javier Sanoja went 2-for-3 with a stolen base and three runs scored. He still hasn't been struck out through his first 30 plate appearances. In Puerto Rico, C Jan Mercado went 0-for-4.RHP Kyle Tyler is the Marlins' latest minor league signing. Tyler has a 2.20 earned run average in limited MLB experience (16.1 IP), but spent the entire 2023 season as a starter with the Mariners' Double-A Arkansas affiliate. Overall in the minors, he's got a 4.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 391 K in 392.2 IP (106 G/60 GS). He'll be a non-roster invitee at spring training. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/e61d5aea-0776-4e05-a1ff-791a0d75982c.mp4Former Marlins minor leaguer LHP Jefry Yan is having an outstanding season in the Dominican Winter League. Miami is among a handful of teams (from both MLB and NPB) expressing interest in him, per Jefferson Pozo.Elsewhere around baseball, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Shohei Ohtani's contract "will surge well beyond $500 million" in guaranteed money. A Juan Soto trade "is edging closer to becoming a reality," Passan adds.The Rule 5 Draft finally arrives next week. This FanPost by Hans Herrera highlights a dozen available pitchers for the Marlins to consider.https://fishonfirst.com/fanposts/2023-rule-5-draft-pitchers/Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers discusses various ways that the Marlins could find more offense this winter.Neil Raymond of Marlin Maniac thinks the Marlins should sign J.D. Martinez (who was also mentioned in Geffner's piece).The Pensacola Blue Wahoos announced start times for their 2024 regular season home games, moving up weeknight first pitches by half an hour, from 6:35 p.m. CT to 6:05 CT.Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images -
Some weirdo on Instagram pretending to be Joey Wendle made a heartfelt Marlins goodbye post. Turns out it was a fake account, so I removed it from the article.
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Marlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday's winter ball notes: In the Dominican Republic, RF Vidal Bruján went 3-for-7 with 2 RBI and a stolen base during a doubleheader. In Puerto Rico, C Jan Mercado went 1-for-4 with an RBI triple.MLB teams have expressed interest in acquiring Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. "If the Marlins trade a starter," Rosenthal adds, "they almost certainly would need to replace him with a veteran free agent on a one-year deal." Despite missing almost all of 2023 due to injuries, I imagine Rogers would carry more value than Cabrera due to his rookie-year brilliance and remaining minor league options.Elsewhere around baseball, there was a much-needed flurry of free agent signings over the last 24 hours. Nick Martinez (2/$26M) and Emilio Pagán (2/$16M) signed with the Reds, Luis Severino (1/$13M) signed with the Mets, and former Fish Joey Wendle (1/$2M) and Garrett Hampson (1/$2M) signed with the Mets and Royals, respectively. I wrote in greater depth about Hampson here. The Brewers and top prospect Jackson Chourio are reportedly closing in on an eight-year, $80 million extension. With two club options tacked on at the end, Chourio will be under their control for an entire decade. If you read Wednesday's Offishial News, I was correct on the length of the deal, but went too high on the dollar amount. Great deal for Milwaukee despite the obvious risk involved.I took a break from quizmaster duties to compete on the latest , claiming a hard-fought win over FOF colleagues Isaac Azout and Nick Turok. Thanks again to Navi from Marlins Discord for serving as guest quizmaster. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! In an with Locked On Marlins, Victor Mesa Jr. discussed his 2023 season, reaction to being selected to the 40-man roster and 2024 outlook and goals. Mesa is the fourth-ranked prospect on our FOF Top 30 list.MiLB.com included Mesa among their 2023 Marlins Organization All-Stars. Director of minor league operations Hector Crespo commented on most of the selections. Most notably, he boasted about Evan Fitterer's uptick in velocity ("this year, he sat 94-97") and insisted that the Marlins are "still really high" on José Devers.Louis Addeo-Weiss explains why Chase Utley, a newcomer to the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, belongs in Cooperstown.Scotty Atkins (Double-A Pensacola) and Jaymeson Wilcox (High-A Beloit) won Head Groundskeeper of the Year in their respective minor leagues. Pensacola's Cedric Bascom was the Southern League's Visiting Clubhouse Attendant of the Year. Congratulations to Gladys and Luis Arraez on delivering their third child, Esthela. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
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Garrett Hampson signs 1-year deal with Royals
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
Those are separate exercises. For arbitration salaries, they have an in-house contributor who created his own model for projecting how much eligible players will settle for. For free agent contracts, it's a more collaborative and less scientific estimate. High success rates on both fronts, but there are exceptions. -
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Wednesday featured the most MLB free agent signings of any day so far this offseason, including former Miami Marlins utility player Garrett Hampson going to the Kansas City Royals. Hampson inked a one-year, $2 million deal for his age-29 season. Hampson began 2023 with Triple-A Jacksonville, but finished it on the Marlins postseason roster. He slashed .276/.349/.380 (101 wRC+) in 98 regular season games, posting a career-best 0.7 fWAR. He started at six different defensive positions, including 26 starts at shortstop. As covered in our Hampson season review, though, it's very unlikely that he replicates that offensive production moving forward. The Marlins also exhausted his final minor league option, so they wouldn't be able to send him down when he slumps or lacks a path to playing time. https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/2023-marlins-season-review-garrett-hampson/I frequently defer to MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration projections. They had Hampson projected for $1.3M in 2024 (his final year of arbitration eligibility). To see him non-tendered and quickly sign elsewhere for a substantially larger guarantee is eyebrow-raising at first glance. Even if the Marlins didn't want Hampson moving forward, how did they fail to get anything in return for him via trade? I'm giving the club the benefit of the doubt. Upon closer inspection, this seems to be a hole in the MLBTR model. Hampson made the pro-rated league minimum salary ($720k) in 2023 and MLBTR projected him for a raise of approximately $580k. However, in 2022 (his first arb-eligible year), Hampson's salary with the Colorado Rockies was $1.863M. I reviewed the MLB Basic Agreement and it says "the record of the Player’s past compensation" can be used during arbitration hearings. While the most recent season typically carries the most weight, Hampson's camp could—and presumably would—argue that his raise should be applied to his previous arb-eligible negotiation and exceed $2M for 2024. In that scenario, it's easy to understand why Hampson had negligible or even negative trade value. Anyway, good luck to Hampson with the rebuilding Royals, and good luck to the Marlins in their search for a shortstop. On the same day that they non-tendered Hampson, they traded for Vidal Bruján. Despite his impressive prospect pedigree and winter ball prowess, it's doubtful that Bruján hits as well as Hampson did in 2023. Certainly worth taking a flier on, but can't put serious expectations on him. Also on Wednesday, Joey Wendle, who started half of the Marlins' games at shortstop, agreed to a Hampson-like deal with the New York Mets. The Marlins' only free agent signings during the Peter Bendix era have been of the minor league variety (IF Tristan Gray and RHP Ignacio Feliz). Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire
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Offishial news, 11/29/23: Vinesh Kanthan; Marlins Jeopardy; holiday hub
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Marlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's winter ball notes: In the Dominican Republic, CF Vidal Bruján went 1-for-3 with a walk and two outfield assists. In Venezuela, LHP Luis Palacios made a 10-pitch relief appearance (0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K).Bruján and fellow recent trade acquisition Calvin Faucher are both changing uniform numbers with their new club. Bruján has gone from No. 7 to No. 17 and Faucher from No. 58 to No. 53. Those numbers were most recently worn by Chi Chi González and Paul Campbell, respectively.Peter Bendix has recruited a former Ray, Vinesh Kanthan, to be his director of baseball operations. Kanthan spent the last five seasons in the Rangers organization. "Kanthan will be involved in all aspects of baseball operations, with a focus on Major League operations and interdepartmental collaboration," according to Christina De Nicola of MLB.com, and he'll be reporting to the Marlins' trio of assistant general managers (Brian Chattin, Dan Greenlee and Oz Ocampo).Elsewhere around baseball, the Brewers are attempting to extend their top prospect, Jackson Chourio, which signals their intent to put him on the 2024 Opening Day roster. Turning 20 during spring training, Chourio would be the youngest player in the majors if that happens. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears that the deal would guarantee more than $50 million. My guess (just for fun) is that Chourio will blow past that and get $96 million over the next eight years.Join us tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET for a Marlins Jeopardy edition of Fish On First LIVE on /Twitter/Twitch. I'm competing on this one with Navi from Marlins Discord serving as guest quizmaster. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! In an interview with the Marlins Hot Stove Show, Jesús Luzardo vows to continue wearing glasses on the mound for the rest of his career. Luzardo also describes the atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park for his postseason start against the Phillies and the importance of being "explosive" with his delivery.Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers finds clever connections that every newcomer to the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot has with the Marlins.The Marlins have set up a "holiday hub" on their website, which includes their annual holiday bundle offer centered around Opening Day.Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images -
Marlins hire Vinesh Kanthan as director of baseball operations
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Peter Bendix's front office is gradually filling out, with news breaking Tuesday afternoon that the Miami Marlins are hiring Vinesh Kanthan to be their new director of baseball operations, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. "Kanthan will be involved in all aspects of baseball operations, with a focus on Major League operations and interdepartmental collaboration," Christina De Nicola of MLB.com specifies. Kanthan worked alongside Bendix in the baseball operations department of the 2017 and 2018 Tampa Bay Rays. He spent the five seasons since then with the Texas Rangers, most recently as their assistant director of baseball ops. So this constitutes a promotion for Kanthan. The Rangers media guide describes Kanthan as having had "a heavy role" in building out the club's sports science lab and Arizona-based performance center "in an effort to create competitive advantages." More recently, he assisted in a wide variety of areas including roster management, contract negotiations and the salary arbitration process. Levi Weaver of The Athletic reported in greater detail about the latter and Kanthan's role in preserving the Rangers' decades-long streak of avoiding hearings with their arb-eligible players (for comparison's sake, the Marlins went to two hearings in 2023 alone). Side note: We recently set up a Super Subscriber-only channel within the Marlins Discord server. That will give you access to Kanthan's complete media guide bio! Here is Rangers bench coach Donnie Ecker endorsing the Kanthan hire: https://twitter.com/donald_ecker/status/1729622264449040823Kanthan is Sri Lankan American. As part of Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage Month in 2021, he released this statement through the Rangers about what it's like being a minority in the baseball industry: Outside of baseball, Kanthan is a "superb pickleball player," Evan Grant tweets, hence my photo choice above. The Marlins are retaining all three of the assistant general managers that Bendix inherited (Brian Chattin, Dan Greenlee and Oz Ocampo). Kanthan will report to them, according to De Nicola. Photo courtesy of babolatpickleball/Instagram -
5 interesting names to address the 2024 Marlins' needs
Ely Sussman replied to Louis Addeo-Weiss's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
You're referring to Elieser? He's a free agent again! The Mets didn't want to tender him another contract after an injury-filled year. He's working as a SP in Venezuela right now. -
FanPost: Rule 5 Draft Targets: Batters
Ely Sussman replied to Hans Herrera's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
Right, it's inexplicable given the current roster situation. Even the biggest Johnston skeptics must admit his value exceeds the $100k Rule 5 Draft fee. If they are really so down on him, should've traded him before the protection deadline for something more substantial.

