Marlins sign Chris Paddack to one-year, $4M deal

[Kevin Barral]

Just two days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Jupiter, the Miami Marlins have signed right-handed pitcher Chris Paddack to a one-year deal worth $4M, with $500k in incentives. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was to report the news and Fish On First was able to confirm it.

Paddack, 30, is someone that all Marlins fans are familiar with. He was selected by the team in the eighth round of the 2015 MLB Draft, but was later traded in 2016 to the San Diego Padres in exchange for Fernando Rodney.

Paddack is now a seven-year major league veteran, but his best overall season remains his rookie campaign with the Padres in 2019 where he posted a 3.33 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 9.79 K/9 and a 1.98 BB/9 in 140 ⅔ innings pitched. He has never been able to replicate those numbers.

In 2022, the Padres traded Paddack to the Minnesota Twins along with Emilio Pagán for Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker and cash. Injuries continued to limit his production, including the second Tommy John surgery on his professional career. Last season, Paddack threw a career-high 158 innings, posting a 5.35 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 6.38 K/9 and 2.11 BB/9. He was traded to the Detroit Tigers at the deadline along with reliever Randy Dobnak in exchange for catcher Enrique Jimenez. Things didn't go much better with the Tigers, where he posted a 6.32 ERA in 47 innings pitched. 

Paddack's four-seam fastball is currently his best weapon, with a run value of plus-two in 2025. It averages 93.7 mph and generates a 18.6% whiff rate. His signature changeup was arguably his worst pitch last season (-8 RV), leading to 10 of the 31 home runs that he allowed.

On the bright side, Paddack gets plenty of chase (85th percentile) and doesn't walk a lot of guys (89th percentile). His long extension (92nd percentile) helps him overpower hitters even with ordinary velocity. He's also younger than most of the remaining free agent arms who have comparable experience.

Look at this signing like a re-do of the 2025 Cal Quantrill acquisition. Even the date and contract size is practically the same in Paddack's case. The expectation is that Paddack will make the Marlins Opening Day rotation as a back-end starter. From there, his performance and the progress of top prospects Robby Snelling and Thomas White will determine how long he holds onto that job.

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[Shawn]

Cal 2.0 that really worked well last year. 

[Jose Herrera]

Welcome back Sheriff, let's start where we left off in 2016.

[JustMarlins]

Is this another yawner of a signing? Trying to look for the silver lining. He did pitch 158 innings last season. That’s all I got. 

[Chad Turner]

...or we could have just kept Weathers.  LOL.  I guess it's better than last year, since we now have 2 elite pitching prospects in AAA.  I can see Paddack as a RP more than I could Cal Q if we can't fix his change.  

[One Regend]

Honestly, the Marlins were forced to do this. They don't trade Ryan Weathers, they don't make this move.

Unless they really liked the package they received from Weathers (I'm not buying it if what I heard about their tendencies are true), I don't understand why they didn't just keep Weathers in the first place. He would have moved the needle much more than Chris Paddack, at his very 2019 best, would have.

We just traded a younger, oft-injured, much-coveted lefty pitcher for an older, oft-injured, much-less-coveted righty pitcher with a worse floor and worse ceiling, with this move.

[2qbn]

I wanted them to sign another pitcher. I'm just not sure it was this guy. Oh well. He'll do fine for what they need. An insurance for about 1-2 months until Snelling gets called up. Also, in case Garrett or Meyer needs 1-2 months to get back in to game shape. 

[BMK3]

This is a not exciting, but just fine signing.  He is not going to win any awards , but will give them a chance to sort out their eventual rotation.  No biggie but OK.

[UKPhil]

I'm underwhelmed by this deal but I get it. Paddack pitched 158+ innings last year. 111 innings from 21 starts gives you a chance of not destroying your own bullpen before the All Star Break.

I'm sure the development guys have a few ideas on what to work on to cut down on runs surrendered

[UKPhil]

So Bendix would rather strengthen the farm than go into a major league season with injury prone Cabrera and Weathers?

There is no money for winning free agents, only interesting projects. Projects have seen the most limited success so far in Bendix tenure. Free agents have not worked out although Quantril did buy some time. Waiver pick ups have had successes (Otto and Ronny).

International signings, Drafting and Trading are showing some promise so far, but it will take a while to build a genuine contender. This is a team that can sweep the Yankies on the right weekend and make Mets fans cry on the last day of the season, but it takes more depth to have a shot against a contender in a five game post season series

[One Regend]

1 hour ago, UKPhil said:

So Bendix would rather strengthen the farm than go into a major league season with injury prone Cabrera and Weathers?

There is no money for winning free agents, only interesting projects. Projects have seen the most limited success so far in Bendix tenure. Free agents have not worked out although Quantril did buy some time. Waiver pick ups have had successes (Otto and Ronny).

International signings, Drafting and Trading are showing some promise so far, but it will take a while to build a genuine contender. This is a team that can sweep the Yankies on the right weekend and make Mets fans cry on the last day of the season, but it takes more depth to have a shot against a contender in a five game post season series

Uhh... have you even looked at Chris Paddack's statsheet?

2025 was the only time he's pitched more than 17 starts in the past 4 seasons.

You're calling Cabrera and Weathers injury prone? We traded a younger injury-prone lefty with more years of control for an older injury-prone righty for 1 year and with a worse floor/ceiling. I don't see how this improves our team. 

[UKPhil]

6 hours ago, One Regend said:

You're calling Cabrera and Weathers injury prone? We traded a younger injury-prone lefty with more years of control for an older injury-prone righty for 1 year and with a worse floor/ceiling. I don't see how this improves our team. 

I think Bendix is still trying to improve the organization. The trades of Cabrera and Weathers were to improve the farm. Picking up Paddack is buying time for the guys lower down to develop.

Cabrera and Weathers you are gambling on them staying healthy for the whole season.

Paddack going down in June could be a disappointment or a relief, but might still be a positive result having bought some time for the next man up.

If Project Paddack is a success we might get an interesting prospect back at the deadline or a run at the post season

[One Regend]

13 hours ago, UKPhil said:

I think Bendix is still trying to improve the organization. The trades of Cabrera and Weathers were to improve the farm. Picking up Paddack is buying time for the guys lower down to develop.

Cabrera and Weathers you are gambling on them staying healthy for the whole season.

Paddack going down in June could be a disappointment or a relief, but might still be a positive result having bought some time for the next man up.

If Project Paddack is a success we might get an interesting prospect back at the deadline or a run at the post season

We're already gambling on Paddack staying healthy in the first place. He's about as injury-wrecked as the guys we traded away except with less upside and less years of control.

Sure, we could use a guy to buy time for Thomas White, but here's the thing: We already had that with Ryan Weathers.

Either way, this doesn't make any team sense under any context.