The Case for Keeping Sandy Alcantara

[Casey Marika]

They say Sandy Alcantara is as good as gone. The Marlins are losing, the front office has gone quiet, and the knives are out. People act like it’s already done. Sandy will be traded. Maybe tomorrow. Maybe next week.

But no one’s asking the one question that matters.

Why?

Why move on from one of the best pitchers in baseball? Why trade a man who can throw deep into games, who doesn’t complain, who shows up, game after game, season after season? Why cut loose a rare thing, when you have it under contract, at a bargain, through 2027?

This is a mistake.

Sandy is not just good. He is what pitchers used to be. He throws hard. He throws long (when allowed). He wins. The numbers speak plain: 206 innings per year, 3.14 ERA between 2021 and 2023. A now pitching to 2.74 in the month of June since returning from TJ. Sandy is a true ace. A Cy Young. A horse.

And he’s not even expensive. Not really. $17 million a year and a $21 million dollar club option. In today’s market, that’s less than some teams pay for their fourth starter. For a Cy Young winner, it’s a bargain. One of the best contracts in the league.

If you’re trying to rebuild something worth keeping, something lasting, you hold on to that man.

They’ll tell you there’s a haul waiting out there. Prospects. Pieces. But that’s not how it works.

Luis Castillo was dealt from Cincinnati to Seattle in 2022 with 1.5 years of control. The Mariners gave up Noelvi Marte (negative career WAR with a PED suspension), Edwin Arroyo (#69 MLB prospect), and a couple pitching prospects. Solid players, but not a franchise-redefining package.

Blake Snell was traded from the Rays to the Padres in 2020 with three years of control left. The Rays got Luis Patiño (traded to White Sox for cash, currently back with the Padres in AA as a 25 year old on a minor league contract), Francisco Mejía (playing in Mexico), and a couple of lower-level names. Snell would go on to win a Cy Young award in San Diego.

They traded those arms before their peak. You’d be doing the same with Sandy. He’s back from surgery. The arm’s live. The command’s getting sharper every start. But the world still sees him as a question mark. The Marlins could end up trading a top-tier starter for a pile of… uncertainty.

That’s not strategy. That’s selling low.

People say Sandy doesn’t match the timeline. That by the time the Marlins are ready to win again, his contract will be up.

The Marlins’ earliest realistic window is two to three years from now by 2027. That’s the final year of Alcantara’s current deal. If the rebuild goes to plan, the Fish should be emerging from its reset as Sandy is still in his prime.

What happens if the team is actually competitive in 2027? You can’t trade him midseason, that would be waving the white flag in your first contending year. And if you keep him let him walk, all you get is a first round comp pick (assuming Sandy signs for over $50 mil).

But there’s another idea: keep him through the rebuild and, if the trajectory is trending up, extend him.

You can’t build a team on dreams and prospects alone. You need anchors. You need men who’ve been there. Sandy is that man.

The young arms stand to benefit immensely from having Alcantara around. I don't think we should be undervaluing the effect that trading Sandy will have on Eury Perez specifically. You can’t develop a winning culture in a vacuum.

A winning culture starts with people like Sandy. Guys who don’t flinch. Guys who show up.

You keep players like that, or you stay rebuilding forever.

Use this moment as an opportunity to change the narrative in South Florida. For too long Fish fans have seen its stars sent away before their stories were fully written. Sandy wants to stay here, if there was a time and a player to break the pattern of trading beloved players that has plagued Miami, now is that time and Sandy is that player!

This isn’t just for the fans either, the players feel it too. No matter how good you are, how loyal, how rare, if the spreadsheet says move, you’re gone. The Marlins have a real chance to make a change. A chance to break the cycle. To stand for something. To make it mean something to wear the teal (bring back the damn teal).

There will always be a case for moving on. But there’s a stronger case for holding on.

Sandy Alcantara is more than just a pitcher. He’s a reason to keep watching. A reason to believe the next Marlins contender is closer than people think.

And when you have a reason like that, you don’t trade it.

You hold on. You build around it.

[One Regend]

I'm one of those people that think Sandy should be traded, because I don't see the Marlins being competitive in 2026. Hell, I don't see them competitive in 2027, either.

But now is a horrible time to trade him. If he gets traded now, the Marlins are selling awfully low and they won't get much back in return.

If the Marlins want to trade him, it makes sense to hold onto him and see what he does in 2026. If he's back to pitching competant baseball in 2026 (maybe not Cy Young level but at least respectable enough), then maybe entertain a trade near the 2026 deadline. Otherwise, trading him now while he's at his lowest point would be a franchise-altering blunder.

[Ely Sussman]

I am all for "changing the narrative" and keeping great players. There's just a big distinction between middle-aged (by baseball standards) hitters and pitchers.

For as much as Sandy has shown during his career to make us trust his durability, it is all too common for pitchers' careers to abruptly fall apart. His first couple months of the season were highly concerning, even with all the caveats about coming back from surgery. Personally, I'm not as convinced of him ever getting back to being a true #1 starter. But I do trust his work ethic to bring him as close as possible to maximizing his potential.

It ultimately depends on what offers are out there. In our Sandy rumor coverage so far, we've been focusing on scenarios that bring back young players with extremely high ceilings. A trade wouldn't be worth considering otherwise.

[Robert Hanson]

What value Sandy has is debatable.

   The Marlins got great value in the Trevor Rogers trade, getting Norby & Stowers.
   They didn’t get much, as of now, for Jesus Luzardo, getting 2 low level prospects Starlyn Caba & Emaarion Boyd. 
   There were health concerns for both Rogers & Luzardo. Sandy seems to have moved past that and has had a solid June. This increases his value.
   He is due much more than Rogers & Luzardo over the next 2 seasons. This decreases value, compared to Rogers & Luzardo, though his contract certainly isn’t a deal breaker for a potential large revenue team looking to add a proven starter on the upswing. 
    IMO, a team has to make the Marlins an offer they can’t refuse. Would not trade Sandy for a Luzardo type package. 
     

[Casey Marika]

I guess the concern that I had with a return package with Sandy was even if the return includes high ceiling prospects, the chances of them panning out are not guaranteed. The two examples I gave, Luis Castillo and Blake Snell, were both considered to be good returns at the time. While I trust Bendix based on the trades he's made so far, I still think keeping Sandy out weighs the risk of gambling on prospects. Rogers and Luzardo did not mean as much to the team/fans as Sandy. He has a key to the city for god's sake.