Can new Marlins lefty Brayan Mendoza build upon breakout season?

[Ely Sussman]

The unheralded Mendoza was extremely consistent throughout his age-20 season on his way to a shiny 2.32 ERA. Here's a closer look at what makes him unique.

Each of the three prospects that the Miami Marlins picked up from the Texas Rangers in the Jake Burger trade are coming off good statistical seasons, none more so than left-hander Brayan Mendoza. 

Used primarily as a starter (24 G/19 GS), Mendoza posted a 2.32 ERA, 3.43 FIP and .230 BAA in 101 innings pitched. He got a brief taste (10.1 IP) of High-A competition at the end of the year, but he otherwise made all of his appearances at Low-A.

Mendoza's earned run average obviously jumps off the page. That was the 11th-lowest mark in Minor League Baseball among all pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings. He did that as a 20-year-old, making him younger than any of the arms ahead of him. That was while taking on doubled the workload of his 2023 season (52.1 IP).

Although Mendoza was rarely dominant, he also avoided blow-ups. He did not allow more than three runs in any outing. His worst statistical performance came on June 26 (highlighted below) and there were some extenuating circumstances. The early portion of that game was played through heavy rain. Immediately after Mendoza surrendered a three-run home run, the game went into a delay, ending his day after only 28 pitches. If we were to scratch that from his record, it would lower his ERA to 2.07.

Mendoza utilized a four-pitch arsenal in 2024 and was similarly effective against right-handed and left-handed batters. That bodes well for his potential of remaining a starter long term.

Shoutout to the Augusta GreenJackets television broadcast for the beautiful center field camera angle. Pitch velocity estimates are a composite of Mendoza's August 2 start at Augusta and June 19 start at Fredericksburg.

 

Four-seam fastball (91-94 mph)

 

Sweeper (79-83 mph)

 

Slider (85-88 mph)

 

Changeup (84-86 mph)

There was a significant gap between Mendoza's ERA and FIP, but don't attribute that only to good luck. He consistently induced ground balls last season to limit the damage on balls in play. Using the same 100-inning threshold as I did with ERA, his 52.3 GB% was 21st-highest in the minors.

Also, controlling the running game is largely a pitcher skill. With the Venezuelan southpaw on the mound, the Wood Ducks caught runners on 12 of 26 stolen base attempts (46.2%); for all of their other pitchers combined, the caught-stealing rate was about half as high (23.7%). Mendoza's normal delivery is quick to plate, plus he's occasionally willing to slide-step to expedite the process even more.

The Rangers were willing to include Mendoza in this trade because of his modest ceiling as a prospect. He's short by MLB pitcher standards at 6'0" with below-average velocity. His control stands out more than his command, meaning the quality of contact against him on pitches in the strike zone could spike against more advanced hitters. As undeniably impressive as his production was in 2024, most of those results came while repeating the level where he spent the 2023 season.

All things considered, you can easily make the case that Mendoza deserves to be ranked among the Marlins' Top 30 prospects (he just missed cracking our most recent Fish On First Top 30 update). He's expected to begin his age-21 season in the High-A Beloit starting rotation. Best-case scenario, he gets promoted to Double-A Pensacola midway through the year and forces a tough decision from the club on whether or not to protect him from the 2025 Rule 5 Draft.

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[rurrusuno]

When Luzardo gets traded, there will be a high probability that Mendoza gets added to the 40-man roster. Actually, he’s 29th on our updated top 30 prospects list.

[Ely Sussman]

2 hours ago, rurrusuno said:

Actually, he’s 29th on our updated top 30 prospects list.

I admit that during the offseason, Pipeline does a decent job with their list, but I don't respect the fact that they ignore them during the season itself. Causes a lot of confusion with how slow they are to make changes. Fun resource to see names from all 30 teams in one place along with other lists, but that's why I don't recommend taking their rankings seriously.

[rurrusuno]

1 hour ago, Ely Sussman said:

I admit that during the offseason, Pipeline does a decent job with their list, but I don't respect the fact that they ignore them during the season itself. Causes a lot of confusion with how slow they are to make changes. Fun resource to see names from all 30 teams in one place along with other lists, but that's why I don't recommend taking their rankings seriously.

Makes sense. It may have to do with the fact that many things can happen during the season, such as a player could be going through a slump or being injured. They want a player's long-term potential to be measured as accurately as possible, so they invest more time in the offseason to evaluate their perfromance.