Can new Marlins lefty Brayan Mendoza build upon breakout season?

Each of the three prospects that the Miami Marlins picked up from the Texas Rangers in the Jake Burger trade are coming off good statistical seasons, none more so than left-hander Brayan Mendoza. 

Used primarily as a starter (24 G/19 GS), Mendoza posted a 2.32 ERA, 3.43 FIP and .230 BAA in 101 innings pitched. He got a brief taste (10.1 IP) of High-A competition at the end of the year, but he otherwise made all of his appearances at Low-A.

Mendoza's earned run average obviously jumps off the page. That was the 11th-lowest mark in Minor League Baseball among all pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings. He did that as a 20-year-old, making him younger than any of the arms ahead of him. That was while taking on doubled the workload of his 2023 season (52.1 IP).

Although Mendoza was rarely dominant, he also avoided blow-ups. He did not allow more than three runs in any outing. His worst statistical performance came on June 26 (highlighted below) and there were some extenuating circumstances. The early portion of that game was played through heavy rain. Immediately after Mendoza surrendered a three-run home run, the game went into a delay, ending his day after only 28 pitches. If we were to scratch that from his record, it would lower his ERA to 2.07.

Mendoza utilized a four-pitch arsenal in 2024 and was similarly effective against right-handed and left-handed batters. That bodes well for his potential of remaining a starter long term.

Shoutout to the Augusta GreenJackets television broadcast for the beautiful center field camera angle. Pitch velocity estimates are a composite of Mendoza's August 2 start at Augusta and June 19 start at Fredericksburg.

Four-seam fastball (91-94 mph)

Sweeper (79-83 mph)

Slider (85-88 mph)

Changeup (84-86 mph)

There was a significant gap between Mendoza's ERA and FIP, but don't attribute that only to good luck. He consistently induced ground balls last season to limit the damage on balls in play. Using the same 100-inning threshold as I did with ERA, his 52.3 GB% was 21st-highest in the minors.

Also, controlling the running game is largely a pitcher skill. With the Venezuelan southpaw on the mound, the Wood Ducks caught runners on 12 of 26 stolen base attempts (46.2%); for all of their other pitchers combined, the caught-stealing rate was about half as high (23.7%). Mendoza's normal delivery is quick to plate, plus he's occasionally willing to slide-step to expedite the process even more.

The Rangers were willing to include Mendoza in this trade because of his modest ceiling as a prospect. He's short by MLB pitcher standards at 6'0" with below-average velocity. His control stands out more than his command, meaning the quality of contact against him on pitches in the strike zone could spike against more advanced hitters. As undeniably impressive as his production was in 2024, most of those results came while repeating the level where he spent the 2023 season.

All things considered, you can easily make the case that Mendoza deserves to be ranked among the Marlins' Top 30 prospects (he just missed cracking our most recent Fish On First Top 30 update). He's expected to begin his age-21 season in the High-A Beloit starting rotation. Best-case scenario, he gets promoted to Double-A Pensacola midway through the year and forces a tough decision from the club on whether or not to protect him from the 2025 Rule 5 Draft.

Interested in learning more about the Miami Marlins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!