What could the Marlins do in the upcoming MLB draft?

[Sean McCormack]

     Predicting the Marlins first 5 rounds of the 2024 MLB draft 

      With the 2024 MLB draft only two weeks away, it's time to dive into the possibilities ahead of the Marlins. This will be Peter Bendix and the new staff's first draft together. I went through the first five selections the Marlins have in the draft, Picks: 16, 56, 70 (comp B), 92, 122, and 155. Using the past draft history of Peter Bendix and the Rays, while mixing new Amauter Scouting Director, Frankie Piliere who comes from the Mariners. I have made what I believe are likely outcomes for this draft. The Marlins come in with the 16th most slot money, at 10,438,500 million to use. (Future value will be placed next to each name. EX: Carson Benge FV55)

 

Pick 16 Round 1

Carson Benge, FV55, (21), Left handed hitter, OF, Oklahoma State University

      At pick 16 I foresee the Marlins targeting a college bat to stay at the slot value of the pick which is $4,704,700 million. Carson Benge would be a great selection. The Rays have a history of selecting College bats in the 1st round to potentially under-slot at the pick and use the leftover slot money on other later picks. Carson has flown up the draft boards moving into his redshirt sophomore year of college. Benge missed his freshman year of college after he suffered Tommy John surgery and since then has focused on hitting. He is a good outfield defender with a solid arm, he projects to be a corner outfielder moving forward but can fill in at center field if needed. Where Benge pops is in his bat. Carson this last season had 18 home runs and posted a .335/.444/.665 slash line, giving him a 1.109 OPS on the season. He nearly walked as much as he struck out with 51 Ks and 49 walks. His under-the-hood data is even more promising than his counting stats.  He posted elite max exit velos in the top 1% of College Baseball. He combines this wicked power with a great plate approach which is something Bendix and staff covets in players. With a great zone contact % of 84% and with low chase rates, this is a recipe that should continue into the pros and lead him to success. My one knock on Benge would be that there are many moving components to his swing. And as competition gets tougher he may want to ease out his swing so higher velos don't catch up on him. Even with that being said, scouts have Benge listed with a 55-hit tool which is above average for the big leagues. 

 

Pick 56 Round 2

JD Dix, FV50, (18), Switch hitter, SS, Whitefish Bay HS WI

      Peter Bendix's time with the Rays shows us in the time he was appointed GM, they were very consistent with drafting a high school shortstop within the first two rounds. Most recently Carson Williams and Adrian Santana. The Mariners had also shown to draft many highschool shortstops. Most recently drafted 3 in the past 2 seasons. Here at pick 56, I have the Marlins selecting JD Dix. Most likely going to be a slot value pick coming in at $1,603,400 million. JD Dix may have to be slightly overslot to get him away from his Wake Forest Commitment, but for this exercise, we will use slot value due to him not being ranked as high on MLB.com as other high school shortstops that may be available at this pick. JD is ranked 75th in the class according to MLB.com. I believe JD may be overlooked in this year's crop of high school shortstops. He is from a smaller state in terms of baseball production and is coming off a shoulder injury which kept him out of many showcases. Dix projects to have the glove and arm to stick at shortstop and shows the ability to hit the ball to all fields. Scouts have Dix listed with a 55-hit tool and 45-power as an 18-year-old shortstop. There are many reasons to believe Dix will develop more power as he matures and fills out his 6'2  180-pound frame. A lot to be excited about when you see a smooth swinging switch hitter who can stick at shortstop. 

 

Pick 70 Comp B

Sean Keys, FV40, (21), Left handed hitter, 1B, Bucknell

      Maybe a bit of a surprising pick to many but it shouldn't be. When you are a low budget team moving into an apparent rebuild, you want to draft high probability big leaguers. Sean Keys may be that. Keys is being looked at as a "data darling". He hits for power, doesn't swing and miss, and makes great contact. Now yes, Bucknell isn't known for producing MLB talent. In fact the last time a guy was drafted from Bucknell was in the 1999 draft. And Keys looks to only be the third player in their history drafted in the top 10 rounds. But do not overlook Keys. Some scouts worried about how he would compete against tougher competition, but when he played in the Cape Cod League he put up great numbers against high level college players. In 2023 he had a 1.191 OPS in the CCBL. This season at Bucknell he put up a .405/.535/.798 slashline. Absolutely elite. This pick would be very reminiscent of Kyle Manzardo which the Rays selected in the 2022 draft and turned out to be a top 100 prospect by 2023. Keys major hole is his defense, but once again the Marlins need high probability big leaguers and his bat gives that. Keys would be an under slot pick here. I predict we give him $800,800 thousand which would be equivalent to the slot bonus of pick 92. The reason I didn't mock Keys at 92 is that I believe teams are going to target him earlier than predicted. The slot for this pick is $1,139,100. 

 

Pick 92 Round 3

Blake Larson, FV45, (18), Left handed pitcher, IMG Academy FL HS

      It's no secret the Marlins have been great at developing starting pitching, and in a extremely deep high school pitching draft, I envision the Marlins hitting that honey well again. Most likely having to overslot this pick I predict Larson gets $1,139,000 which is what pick 70 is. The reason I have Larson going here instead of pick 70 and just doing a normal slot pick, is due to how deep the draft is for high school pitching and also how highly I think of Sean Keys. Larson projects to be one of the more pro ready lefties in the high school circuit. Scouts have him with a 55 grade Fastball that touches 96 mph and sits 93. He has a 55 grade slider and 50 grade changeup. His command in reportedly spotty but showed better flashes as the weather warmed. His slider has extreme spin on it and looks more like a sweeper/slurve type of pitch. The Marlins have already seen how well Thomas White our last year 1st round Lefty has done and could maybe match that with Larson here. 

 

Pick 122 Round 4

Zach Ehrhard, FV40, 21, Right handed hitter, OF, Oklahoma State University

      College teammates with Carson Benge, Ehrhard broke out in a big way this spring. Ehrhard who turned down being drafted by the Red Sox in round 13 of the 2021 draft seems to have made a good choice. A big season for Ehrhard had him posting a 1.085 OPS this season. Zach shared the outfield with Benge but is projected to be a better defender. He has 60 grade speed and is a solid base stealer. What impresses me the most about Ehrhard is how he walked 22 times more than he struck out this season. This shows an elite approach that will hopefully continue into his pro career. Scouts had been lower on him due to his lack of power and production in his first two seasons at OSU. But in his Junior year, he tapped into some power and impressed. I have the Marlins going at slot value here of $589,000 thousand to sign Zach. 

 

Pick 155 Round 5

Nate Dohm, FV40, 21, Right handed pitcher, Mississippi State

      With the last selection of this mock, I have the Marlins taking their first College arm. I believe Nate is a pitcher the Marlins will have their eye on for many reasons. Other than his 6'4 frame and mid 90s fastball that has explosive ride and multiple high spin offspeed pitches which scouts love, Dohm fits the model of pitcher the Rays have Id in the past. Which is college arms that may have had some injury problems, which makes them cheaper or undervalued. But they are filled with talent and throw a lot of strikes. Combine all that with the success the Mariners have had in later selections of the draft taking undervalued college arms, Dohm seems like a no brainer to me. Dohm has struggled with arm injuries in the past which is why he is falling lower then what his data and stats may suggest. Only pitching 112 innings in 4 years in college, Nate Dohm has still impressed. Although Dohm made no starts this season, he has a history of being a starter. He threw 29 innings this season and put up a 1.23 ERA. Dohm struck out 37 and only walked 4. He allowed 0 home runs this season. To me Nate seems like a pitcher that Bendix and his staff will love. I predict the Marlins going at under slot value for this pick. Coming at, $331,300 thousand which is 6th round value. The Original value for this pick is $427,000. thousand. This leaves the Marlins total slot money used at 9,168,300 million, with 1,270,200 million left to use on the next 5 slot picks. 

 

Thank you for reading. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ely Sussman]

Wouldn't have expected to see "Bucknell" and "high probability big leaguer" in the same paragraph, but Keys' production makes it hard to dispute.

A staple of the Rays when it comes to pitcher acquisition at all levels has been to roll the dice on oft-injured pitchers when they're sufficiently discounted, so the Dohm fit makes a lot of sense.