Nick Fortes is hitting almost everything...with nothing to show for it

[Ely Sussman]

Fortes is quietly one of baseball's best contact hitters. How come it isn't translating to more offensive production?

The Miami Marlins manufactured only one run on Friday against the Washington Nationals, courtesy of Nick Fortes. During their first encounter with two outs in the top of the second inning, MacKenzie Gore started off Fortes with a belt-high curveball, then got him to chase a 97 mph fastball slightly above the zone. Just like that, an 0-2 count. Gore was in full control.

Fortes kept battling, though. He spoiled the next pitch, another 97 mph heater up at the letters. He then laid off consecutive curveballs in the dirt. Gore's sixth pitch was his most hittable one, an ordinary changeup that stayed in the zone. Fortes grounded it to third base. His Sprint Speed this season is 26.7 ft/sec, slightly below the MLB average (35th percentile). On this particular run, however, he dialed it up to 28.0 ft/sec, and that made all the difference in securing an infield single.

Here's the full sequence:

This qualifies as an offensive "highlight" for Fortes in 2024. If we raised the bar any higher, there'd be barely anything to show.

I was contemplating a Nick Fortes article much earlier in the season. Then, exactly one month ago, he seemingly broke out of his slump (3-3, HR, 3 RBI, BB vs. PHI on May 17), so I tabled the idea. Unfortunately, that proved to be an anomaly, not a turning point. The only run he has driven in during June is shown above.

Fortes is one of MLB's worst hitters, yet he's arriving at these abysmal results in a different way than his struggling peers.

 

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Fortes has become an elite contact hitter. Entering Monday, he's whiffing on only 10.7% of his total swings this season. The 27-year-old backstop is striking out in 11.5% of his trips to plate this season, barely half as often as the average major leaguer and right between Jeff McNeil and José Ramírez. He ranks in the 96th percentile among MLB players with at least 100 plate appearances. Fortes has made 45 starts and never had a multi-strikeout game!

This has been the continuation of a trend. Fortes has improved his strikeout rate every year since his 2021 Marlins debut. Overall, though, putting an emphasis on making contact at the expense of quality contact is backfiring. It has coincided with troubling trends in practically every other hitting category:

• Average exit velocity has gone from 91.3 mph (2021)  ➡️ 89.3 mph (2022)  ➡️ 88.2 mph (2023)  ➡️ 85.1 mph (2024)
• Groundball rate has gone from 30.4%  ➡️ 40.1%  ➡️ 45.8%  ➡️ 49.6%
• Walk rate has gone from 8.8%  ➡️ 7.5%  ➡️ 5.3%  ➡️ 2.9%
• Batting average has gone from .290 ➡️ .230  ➡️ .204  ➡️ .159
• Isolated power has gone from .387  ➡️ .161  ➡️ .095  ➡️ .068
• wRC+ has gone from 168  ➡️ 97  ➡️ 53  ➡️ 19

Fortes is unique. There isn't anybody else in the majors who is producing this poorly offensively despite having truly great bat-to-ball skill. Seeing pitches clearly does not take you very far on its own.

Bad luck has been a factor. Minimum 100 plate appearances, only 10 players have a weighted on-base average that's farther below their expected weighted on-base average than Fortes, per Baseball Savant. But fully meeting those expectations (.244 xwOBA) would still result in a career low in that department. His batted ball profile has changed for the worse.

Even compared to last season (which was disappointing already), there's been a massive drop-off in Fortes' numbers against left-handed pitching. When holding the platoon advantage in 2023, he accrued half of his extra-base hits and had a 129 wRC+; this season, he has just two doubles vs. lefties with a -15 wRC+.

The first clip is from 2023 and the second is from 2024. His setup at the plate has completely changed. Whatever gains he anticipated from closing his batting stance and exaggerating his leg kick have not been achieved.

Aside from contemplating mechanical adjustments, Fortes could benefit from being more selective. He owns one of MLB's highest (worst) infield flyball rates. His propensity for chasing after high pitches is leading to a lot of pop-ups—which are just as useless as strikeouts—and disadvantageous counts.

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A player who's hitting as poorly as Fortes would ordinarily have been demoted to the minors by now. However, the leash is longer for catchers, especially those who are plus defenders at that critical position. Fortes has established himself as an excellent blocker behind the dish while making noticeable improvements as a thrower. Also, the Marlins don't have obvious internal upgrades given the struggles of Christian Bethancourt and Will Banfield.

With that being said, there is so much more potential here. Fortes showed it a couple years ago. At this stage of his career, he ought to be peaking, not declining. Turning things around begins with shifting his priorities: find a way to make more impact, even if it means sacrificing contact.

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[Leo Armbrister]

Actually nobody is hitting on this team. When was the last time someone hit a homerun or hit the ball to the warning tract. Those hits are few and far in between. When you don't spend money to get quality players this is what you get. The pitching which is supposed to be a strength can't win you games because everygame there is no room for error. While there are a couple of decent complimentary players on this team there is no Marlins player that I would vote to be an All Star. This season is loss. I hope we draft a couple of good players so that in five years we can see some decent talent in Miami.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

As you noted, Fortes can make reasonable adjustments to improve and stay in the big leagues. Perhaps he exemplifies the "fastest way to the big leagues (and staying there) adage.