Realistic one-for-one trades the Marlins can make ahead of Opening Day

[Louis Addeo-Weiss]

Here, we'll explore several straight-up deals the Fish could make in hopes of addressing current and future needs across their major and minor league rosters.

We're nearing the pitchers and catchers report date, marking the commencement of Spring Training. The familiar sounds of ball popping mitt and bat meeting ball will soon signal baseball's emergence from its winter slumber as the National Pastime readies itself for another year of play. 

For Marlins fans, though, they are straining to generate enthusiasm following an offseason of relative inactivity. Beyond the front office restructuring, Miami sits here in early February still the only club yet to sign a player to a guaranteed Major League deal. Such behavior in the wake of the team's first full-season playoff appearance since their World Series-winning 2003 has largely washed away the optimism that 2023 wrought. 

We noted recently what this approach (or lack thereof) may signal for the club's fortunes, but this shouldn't preclude discussion about how Miami could go about salvaging what has become of the current organization. Peter Bendix inherited a Major League club with an ill-defined core complimented by a minor league system with little in the way of reinforcements. Waiver-wire pickups won't suffice.

Bendix has raved about the quality and depth of the Marlins' pitching. Let's see him use it to alleviate their concerns at other positions.

Note: The viability of these hypothetical transactions were assessed using the Baseball Trade Values trade simulator.

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Miami Marlins trade SP Edward Cabrera to the St. Louis Cardinals for 2B Thomas Saggese

We begin with a potential trade where the Marlins may be getting less than what they're parting with, though a move such as this potentially addresses more needs than just one. Even without former NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara contributing in 2024 following Tommy John surgery, Miami still has an influx of young, controllable starting pitching, of which they could parlay for future impact position players. 

Acquired in the deal that saw Jordan Montgomery head to Texas, Saggese—St. Louis' fourth-ranked prospect, according to Baseball Prospectus—hit .331 with a .662 SLG in 33 G for AA Springfield before earning the call to AAA for a 13-game cup of coffee to end a 2023 that saw him slash a combined .306/.374/.530/.904 in just his age-21 season. Though primarily a second baseman, Saggese also has seen time at short (37 GS), third (93 GS), and first (1 GS), which, when complimented with his uptick in power by way of his 26 home runs last season could make him a valuable big leaguer in due time.

Current 2B Luis Arraez has made it known that he is open to a potential long-term extension. Nothing is reportedly close to materializing on that front, however, so Saggese would serve as a worthy heir to the position should Arraez not be long for South Florida.

As for Cabrera, he has shown an aptitude for putting hitters away (10.1 K/9)—a trait that Cardinals POBO John Mozeliak has said the club is searching for—and limiting hits (6.6 H/9). He also excels at allowing free passes (5.4 BB/9), thus his 1.34 WHIP and 4.78 FIP suggest room for improvement. Given St. Louis' recent success with re-tuning starting pitchers (see Miles Mikolas and the aforementioned Montgomery), who is to say Cabrera couldn't follow in those their footsteps and turn into the ace his stuff suggests he can be? 

Though Saggese's strong season and accompanying track record (.298/.369/.508/.878) could make him a tough piece to part with, Cabrera's five years of club control may be the sales pitch needed to consummate this deal.

Miami Marlins trade SP Max Meyer to the San Francisco Giants for OF Rayner Arias

On the surface, this trade seems a bit of a stretch: a former college-level pitcher already with big-league experience being swapped for a 17-year-old with all of just 16 games in professional ball. This presents both high-risk and high-upside potential.

Meyer, Miami's third-ranked prospect even after undergoing Tommy John in the second half of the 2022 season, got a brief taste of big league hitters via a 6-inning cameo that season and remains under club control through 2028. Pairing a mid-90s fastball with a 60-grade slider, Meyer is merely a changeup away from solidifying his place in a big-league rotation. For a Giants starting rotation projected 17th in SP WAR, per FanGraphs, the addition of Meyer, who will most certainly see his innings capped as works his way back from surgery, could provide a nice bridge to the likes of recently-signed Jordan Hicks, who the team plans to stretch out as a starter after spending his first five seasons in the bullpen.

Though an injury limited his pro debut to just 16 games, Rayner Arias—already the club's fifth-ranked prospect—showed why he may be the next big star no one is talking about. In 76 plate appearances in the Dominican Summer League, the teenager hit like 1941 Ted Williams, slashing an absurd .414/.539/.793, hitting 4 home runs while also swiping 4 bases, totaling a 230 wRC+. Impressive, too, was his plate discipline, as Arias walked more times (15) than he struck out (11). Expected to be healthy at the outset of spring training, a longer run of games in his eventual stateside debut could see his stock continue to rise as he refines his still-raw game, so trading him now may be out of the Giants' plans.

All of this being said, given the club's top pitching prospect, Kyle Harrison, appears ready to jump into a full-time big league role, Meyer would keep San Francisco's minor league pipeline going, while allowing for impact at the highest level in short order.

Miami Marlins trade RP Anthony Bender to the Chicago Cubs for 3B James Triantos

If you've picked up on a trend here, points for you and your intuitive nature. If not, the Miami Marlins have very little in the way of position players worth dealing for prospects, thus here we see a third pitcher being dealt in hopes of strengthening the sport's 27th-ranked farm system.

Bender, like the aforementioned Meyer, missed all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John, though when healthy, proved one of the sport's more effective late-inning arms. Between 2021-22, Bender was among the 25 relievers to toss at least 80 innings with an ERA+ of 140 or better while allowing fewer than 7 H/9. His 0.9 HR/9 ranked 6th-best among that list of hurlers.

Recently declaring himself "healthy" ahead of camp, Bender should slide back into Miami's bullpen in 2024, where he'll remain under club control through 2027.

Ranked just outside of the Cubs' top-10 prospects list at Baseball America following the 2023 season, Triantos, after seeing extended time at 3rd base in 2022, flaunted his positional versatility, moonlighting at second, short, left, and even center field, hitting a modest .287/.364/.391/.755 in the process. Though power doesn't appear a major asset currently (30-grade game, 45-grade raw), Triantos has been an above-average minor league bat, posting wRC+'s of 143, 102, and 115, respectively. 

Though his 6'1", 195-pound build projects him more as a 2B long term, should he stick at 3B, conservatively assuming he arrives in 2025, Miami could use this as leverage to move another bat recently acquired from the Windy City, Jake Burger, across the diamond to 1st. In 2023, Burger finished in both the 40th and 3rd percentiles respectively in arm strength and outs above average (OAA).

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[Julio]

No, thank you. Cabrera fixes his control issues and we’re talking about a pitcher with ace stuff and years of club control which is what the Marlins historically look for in a trade.  His value is way higher than Cardinals system #9 prospect. The Marlins need to acquire MLB ready talent for SS and behind the plate in a trade. Personally, I would give Amaya a fair shot to earn everyday SS job. His MiLB numbers are as good as of those who we have been linked to in the offseason. Watching Wendle take everyday at bats last season while Amaya was killing in the minors was pathetic.

 

[Slacker Mills]

Honestly, I just can't see any of the proposed deals doing service to the Marlins.

[Ely Sussman]

On 2/5/2024 at 2:19 PM, Julio said:

No, thank you. Cabrera fixes his control issues and we’re talking about a pitcher with ace stuff and years of club control which is what the Marlins historically look for in a trade.  His value is way higher than Cardinals system #9 prospect. The Marlins need to acquire MLB ready talent for SS and behind the plate in a trade. Personally, I would give Amaya a fair shot to earn everyday SS job. His MiLB numbers are as good as of those who we have been linked to in the offseason. Watching Wendle take everyday at bats last season while Amaya was killing in the minors was pathetic.

 

With Amaya, I saw a guy who had an extraordinarily month of production in May and was otherwise a very underwhelming player. It was disappointing that he didn't get a longer look once he was called up, but he simply didn't force the issue again during the second half of the season. Would've been brought up if it was clear that he'd be a significant upgrade over their veteran alternatives.

[Slacker Mills]

Two for two. Arraez and Scott to Red Sox for Rafaela and Teel.

Or Arraez and Scott to Reds for Noelvi Marte and a top twenty prospect from their system.