Ely Sussman

The Mariners have blown their AL West division lead in record time. A Chisholm acquisition would address some of their deficiencies and they have young hitting prospects to spare that the Marlins would love to rebuild around. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is one of the biggest names who could potentially be dealt in advance of the July 30 MLB trade deadline. Chisholm's combination of tools, youth, club control and 2024 production make him a potential target for many teams and easily the most valuable trade chip on the Miami Marlins active roster. Should the Marlins be shopping Chisholm or building around him? You could make strong arguments both ways, but like it or not, the team's intentions are clear: they're focused on infusing more young talent into their farm system with the expectation of contending several years down the road. Investing in the current major league roster is not a priority. If the Fish receive a fair offer for their Bahamian star, he will be on the move. Leading up to the deadline, I'll be proposing hypothetical trades that the Marlins could make involving Chisholm. The series continues with the Seattle Mariners. How Chisholm fits in Seattle Three years in a row, the Mariners front office has whiffed on their acquisitions of veteran second basemen. It was Adam Frazier in 2022 (80 wRC+), Kolten Wong in 2023 (35 wRC+) and now Jorge Polanco in 2024 (76 wRC+). With Polanco posting the highest strikeout rate of his career and also rating as a below-average defender, there's no chance that the Mariners will exercise his $12M club option for 2025. If they were to get Chisholm, it would be to take Polanco's job. Also worth mentioning, the status of star center fielder Julio Rodríguez is somewhat uncertain as of this writing. Rodríguez suffered a right ankle sprain on Sunday and is set to undergo an MRI. Picked up off the scrap heap last month, Víctor Robles is Seattle's current backup plan in CF. Having scored the fourth-fewest runs in Major League Baseball this season, the Mariners need offense wherever they can find it. Chisholm has more weighted runs created (50) than anybody on their roster. In all likelihood, he'd be plugged into the leadoff spot of their lineup, supplanting J.P. Crawford whose production has cratered after an excellent 2023 campaign. Trade proposal Mariners receive INF/OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. and LHP A.J. Puk Marlins receive INF Felnin Celesten, INF Ben Williamson and RHP Brody Hopkins In addition to Chisholm, I think that the Mariners would love Puk. Their organization fetishizes good control (leading MLB in walk rate this season) and the tall lefty has issued only six free passes in 28 ⅓ innings pitched since going back to relief work. Seattle's bullpen is headed by a trusty closer, Andrés Muñoz, but they lack a standout setup man and have generally struggled in high-leverage situations. Puk could make a big impact in the seventh and eighth innings. HWsPCMAxF-6mF2AY.mp4 Like Chisholm, Puk is under club control via arbitration through the 2026 season. With an estimated surplus value of $8.2M, according to Baseball Trade Values, his inclusion in this deal should meaningfully increase the return coming to Miami. There might not be another realistically available prospect in the minor leagues who fits what Peter Bendix is seeking more perfectly than Felnin Celesten. A prized international free agent who signed with Seattle in January 2023, the 18-year-old switch-hitter has been playing shortstop for the ACL Mariners. He was among the complex league's top bats (slashing .341/.423/.561 with a 146 wRC+) before being sidelined by left wrist soreness. Conveniently, he is expected to resume game action just in time for the trade deadline. "Celesten’s physicality stands out immediately and, as he approaches age 19, would stand out in a big league clubhouse," Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote in ranking him the No. 4 prospect in the Mariners system. "He probably weighs 15 or 20 pounds more than when he signed and every bit of it is muscle; Celesten’s shoulders look like he’s shoplifting grapefruits up his sleeves." If the Marlins were to add him, Celesten could spend August and September getting his first reps at Low-A. I previously brought up Ben Williamson as a logical target in exchange for Bryan De La Cruz. Well, De La Cruz has performed horribly ever since, so it's up to Chisholm/Puk to bring back the prospect haul themselves. One year removed from being drafted, Williamson is already an above-average Double-A hitter with smooth defense at third base. A likely spring training non-roster invitee in 2025, he would be the quickest player from this package to reach the big leagues. The sixth-round pick from Williamson's 2023 draft class, right-hander Brody Hopkins was a two-way player prior to turning pro. The 22-year-old has a 3.13 ERA, 4.21 FIP and 1.24 WHIP at Low-A while making all 17 of his scheduled starts. He's shown outstanding consistency with two or fewer earned runs allowed in 15 of those outings. Hopkins' groundball rate is among the highest in the minors among pitchers who've topped 70 innings this season. Nasty slider. og6ftn.mp4 Previous Chisholm trade proposals Building a Yankees trade package Which other teams do you want me to include in this Chisholm trade package series? Comment below to let me know. View full article

Offishial News for 7/22/24 On Sunday, home runs by Jazz Chisholm Jr. (13th of the season) and Jake Burger (12th) accounted for all of Miami's offense. The Marlins pitching staff struck out 14 Mets batters to overcome three(!!!) errors by Nick Fortes. Fortes had committed only three errors all year entering the game. Tanner Scott recorded the save and extended his hitless streak to 9 ⅓ innings. The Marlins won, 4-2. They have more victories against the Mets (five) than they have against all of their other NL East opponents combined (four). Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 6-2. INF/OF Javier Sanoja had two home runs and every Jumbo Shrimp hitter reached base safely. Jacksonville has won four games in a row. Double-A Pensacola lost, 5-1. Their hitters combined to go 5-or-39 with 22 strikeouts and no walks. Particularly forgettable day for OF Jakob Marsee, who struck out in each of his five plate appearances. High-A Beloit won, 8-1. INF Johnny Olmstead and INF Josh Zamora continue to produce, going 5-for-10 with 4 RBI. Low-A Jupiter won, 14-9. Multi-hit games for seven different Hammerheads, including birthday boy C Ryan Ignoffo. Has there ever been a Marlins minor league catcher with 20 stolen bases in a season like Ignoffo has? INF Breyias Dean represented the Marlins at the Dominican Summer League All-Star Game. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 Daily Jazz Chisholm Jr. updates: Bob Nightengale reports that the Phillies have "no interest" in him. Although the Phillies have struggled to get any offensive production at the center field position, they still own MLB's best record and the largest cushion of any division leader. 🔷 Happy 30th birthday to Tanner Scott. Throughout the last two seasons, I'd argue he has been MLB's best reliever. Particularly over the last month, he has done absolutely everything possible to make himself a top target for trade deadline buyers. 🔷 On the other hand, despite his shiny 1.23 ERA, I'm not convinced that JT Chargois would bring back much in return if traded. 🔷 I highly recommend reading Alex Carver's in-depth story on fifth-round draft pick Grant Shepardson with details about the velocity spike that raised his prospect stock in recent months. 🔷 We have signing bonus amounts for 19 of the 21 Marlins MLB Draft picks. Just waiting on eighth-rounder OF Jacob Jenkins-Cowart. The Marlins are not expected to sign 15th-rounder C Coen Niclai, as our own Isaac Azout reported. The signing deadline is August 1. 🔷 Listen back to Sunday's State of the Fish call-in show, which included discussion of Chisholm, Scott, Xavier Edwards, the Marlins bullpen and more. 🔷 Matt Eddy of Baseball America selects LHP Thomas White as his Marlins Midseason MiLB Player of the Year. 🔷 Son Los Marlins vents about this being "the absolute worst" season in franchise history. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton and Jim Leyland were officially inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies fractured his left wrist and is projected to miss eight weeks. The Mariners are ready to part with first baseman Ty France. He's been placed on outright waivers and they intend to outright him to the minors if he goes unclaimed. MVP frontrunners Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani hit their 35th and 30th homers of the season, respectively. Yordan Alvarez hit for the cycle. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter RHP Yonny Chirinos) conclude their four-game wraparound series against the Mets (LHP David Peterson). The Marlins have a 42.8% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: FCL Marlins vs. FCL Mets, 12:00 p.m. ET (resumption of previously suspended game) DSL Marlins at DSL Giants Orange, 11:00 a.m. ET DSL Miami vs. DSL Mets Orange, 11:00 a.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article

As if Scott's body of work over the last two seasons was not brilliant enough, the Marlins trade candidate has been nearly perfect in his most recent outings. No, the Miami Marlins didn't forget. They know that Monday is Tanner Scott's 30th birthday and they have a special gift in store: sending the pending free agent closer to a contending team. It's just difficult to coordinate these transactions to happen on a particular date. Deadlines spur activity and MLB's trade deadline isn't until July 30. My own gift to Scott is a partial retraction. On June 13, I had the audacity to write that you, dear reader, were overestimating his trade value. "Those of you who were underwhelmed by the (Luis) Arraez deal are about to be underwhelmed again," with part of my rationale being that the left-hander could not be trusted to sustain his All-Star-caliber first half. Hours after publication, Scott blew a save against the New York Mets, allowing a walk that set up a J.D. Martinez walk-off two-run home run. Since then, though? He has rebounded with an extended streak of flawless high-leverage relief. Scott is in the midst of 14 ⅔ innings of scoreless work, additionally stranding three inherited baserunners. It's been four weeks since he last allowed a hit. Scott's fastball is as overpowering as we've ever seen it. During his erratic opening month of the 2024 season, he was averaging only 96.3 mph on the pitch and throwing his slider almost as often. In July, Scott is regularly touching triple digits (averaging 98.0 mph) and locating it well. He has altered his pitch selection accordingly—Scott's 70.1% fastball usage is on pace to be the highest of his career for a single month. Scott's 28.2% strikeout rate this season is below his career average while his 14.7% walk rate ranks in the second percentile among MLB qualifiers, per Baseball Savant. However, the only people citing these as legitimate concerns simply have not been paying attention. Scott's aforementioned fastball reliance is limiting his whiffs. It's a conscious trade-off and a justifiable one because that pitch is practically unhittable even when opponents make contact. Only a quarter of balls put into play against his four-seamer have been hit hard with an average exit velocity of 78.1 mph. In between K's, he is inducing a soothing series of routine grounders and lazy fly balls that even Miami's porous defense cannot screw up. dejongMVlEeFJfWGw0TUFRPT1fVkZBSFZ3Y0RBRkFBREZZQlZ3QUFBVlZTQUFNQlcxUUFWd1pXQmdBQkFnVldCUUFI.mp4 sosaMVlEeFJfWGw0TUFRPT1fRHdVSFZWSUFVRlFBV1FkVVZ3QUFVQWRWQUZrQ0FGY0FWRlFBVkZJTkExWUVBUUVD.mp4 Scott began spring training with a serious control problem and it permeated into the regular season. He allowed one walk per inning through his first 17 appearances. That has been resolved: his walk rate is down to 8.8% over his last 24 outings, which is approximately league average and right in line with where he was throughout the 2023 campaign. Minimum 100 innings pitched, Tanner Scott has posted Major League Baseball's best ERA over the last two seasons (1.94). His 2.56 FIP ranks second only to Tarik Skubal (2.33). And because he is doing it in crucial game situations, he is leading all pitchers in win probability added by a comically wide margin. This sport can lend itself to strange outcomes in small sample sizes, as the Marlins learned the hard way with David Robertson a year ago, but Scott provides the ultimate combination of dominance and durability to teams shopping for bullpen reinforcements. I stand by what I wrote originally, that MLB front offices are too disciplined to trade their very best prospects for a rental reliever. Even so, Scott has distinguished himself enough from his fellow RPs to bring useful long-term contributors back to Miami in return for his remaining 2024 services. View full article

Getting something in return for him is better than standing pat. I just don't think other teams trying to win now see him as an upgrade over their internal options moving forward.

Well keep in mind that several active Marlins (Trevor, Edwards, Gordon, etc.) received multi-million dollar bonuses themselves coming out of high school. A significant chunk of that is utilized for proper housing, training and travel during the extensive minor league development process. These guys are the exceptions, not the norm. More than 3/4 of all draftees come from college.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the third game of Miami's home series against the New York Mets. View full article

JT Chargois has been getting outs since returning from injury last month, but can he be trusted to sustain this? Why are MLB contenders lining up to bid on Tanner Scott at the upcoming trade deadline? He's a hard-throwing veteran who has been putting up zeroes in 2024. Nearing the end of his club-controlled years, Scott can presumably be obtained without sacrificing any highly coveted prospects. JT Chargois fits that description too. Rehab from a spring training neck injury cost the right-hander more than two months of the regular season. In his limited Miami Marlins reps this year, would you believe that Chargois' ERA (1.23) is lower than the 1.30 mark belonging to the great Scott?! While Scott is a pending free agent, Chargois actually has arbitration eligibility in 2025, and his current salary is a measly $1.285M. If there was any lingering doubt about Chargois' physical fitness, his fastball velocity averaged 95.4 mph on Saturday against the Mets. That was his second-highest average velo of the season and within a tick of the 33-year-old's career norm. Unfortunately for the Fish, that's where the similarities between Scott and Chargois end. The latter is a prime example of why small-sample earned run averages for relievers can be highly misleading. Teams competent enough to win the majority of their games are unlikely to be duped. A quick perusal of Chargois' 2024 game logs speaks volumes about how Miami views him internally. First off, Chargois has not made any appearances on back-to-back days. He only did so while rehabbing at the minor league level (June 5-6 with Triple-A Jacksonville). Since Chargois was reinstated from the IL, the Marlins bullpen has thrown the fourth-most innings in the majors. He would be assigned a larger share of them if there was a genuine trust in him to thrive. On Saturday, Chargois contributed in a semi-important situation. With the aid of an athletic Nick Gordon catch, he kept the Marlins within one run of the Mets heading into the bottom of the ninth inning. T1Fka1JfWGw0TUFRPT1fVndoVlVWTU1YbE1BQ0ZZQlh3QUFBMUpmQUFOWEFsWUFBbGNEQjFWVVVGVUFVMUZV.mp4 Even so, through 13 games, Chargois has never entered with a lead! Only once has he pitched in high leverage as defined by Baseball-Reference. There is not any way to sugarcoat it: Chargois has been extremely lucky. His 1.23 ERA belies a 4.53 FIP, which is on pace to be the worst of his seven-year MLB career. That 3.30-run gap in the favorable direction trails only Spencer Bivens of the San Francisco Giants among MLB pitchers with 10-plus innings of work this season. Chargois' performance when inheriting baserunners is not reflected in his ERA. He has permitted four of nine to score (44 IS%) after going 5-for-20 (25 IS%) last year. The one constant for Chargois historically has been his ability to induce ground balls. His 52.9 GB% from 2016-2023 placed him in the 90th percentile (min. 100 IP). However, he's on the opposite end of the spectrum so far in 2024 with a 31.0 GB%. Much of that discrepancy seems linked to his lack of sinker command. Too many pitches intended for the bottom third of the strike zone are winding up middle-middle. If the Marlins find a taker for Chargois, don't expect anything more than a fringy, far-away prospect who falls short of cracking our Top 30 list. He's destined for August/September regression, and the bonus year of control is not particularly enticing considering that injuries have always prevented him from spending a full-length MLB season on an active roster. Despite his uninspiring overall numbers in 2024 and similarly sketchy history of durability, look for A.J. Puk to fetch a more sizable haul. View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the second game of Miami's home series against the New York Mets. View full article

Miami Marlins outfielder Dane Myers posted the following message to his social media accounts on Friday regarding the left ankle fracture he suffered last weekend in Cincinnati: Read if you want to Just a quick PSA. Last week I embarrassed the Marlins, my family, and myself. I lost my composure in the heat of battle. I made a mistake on the field and an even bigger mistake off the field. I don't expect someone on the outside looking in to understand me and what was going on in my head in that moment. There's no excuse for what happened but it did and I can't change that. My love for the game translated into something it shouldn't have. The entire situation does not reflect who I am as a person/player or my character. I spoke to the media hours after find out out my foot was fractured. I was completely broken and running off no sleep, so I didn't really get to say how I felt entirely. After reflecting, I'm saying it now. I want to apologize to any kids that are fans of mine, learn from my mistake and handle similar moments the right way. I also want to apologize to my family and the entire Miami Marlins organization. Thank you to my support system for building me up in a time like this. And as far as the hatred I'm receiving from others, it's just motivation for me. While I heal physically I am going to work on my mental and come back better than ever in a few weeks. I guarantee it. God did!

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's home series against the New York Mets. View full article

Updating the dollars spent by the Marlins on their 2024 MLB Draft class. The Miami Marlins made 21 selections in the 2024 MLB Draft and signed 20 of them by the August 1 deadline. In the vast majority of cases, negotiations are done ahead of time—the team knows what the player's "number" is before picking him. However, particularly for prep prospects, signability can be more complicated. Ultimately, they have leverage to play college ball if they aren't fully comfortable with the circumstances. This year, the Marlins had a bonus pool of $10,438,500. The pool applies to players selected during the first 10 rounds and those in the 11th round or later who cost more than $150k. The Marlins were allowed to spend up to 105% of their pool ($10,960,425) without losing future picks. Dollar amounts in bold counted toward the Marlins' bonus pool. The Marlins spent $10,425,000 (99.9% of their bonus pool). Round 1: OF PJ Morlando signed for $3,400,000 (slot value $4,704,700) Round 2: SS Carter Johnson signed for $2,800,000 (slot value $1,603,400) Competitive Balance Round B: RHP Aiden May signed for $900,000 (slot value $1,139,100) Round 3: 2B Gage Miller signed for $800,800 (slot value $800,800) Round 4: OF Fenwick Trimble signed for $550,000 (slot value $589,000) Round 5: RHP Grant Shepardson signed for $897,500 (slot value $427,000) Round 6: SS Payton Green signed for $328,800 (slot value $331,300) Round 7: RHP Nick Brink signed for $195,000 (slot value $259,600) Round 8: OF Jacob Jenkins-Cowart signed for $211,600 (slot value $211,600) Round 9: 3B Dub Gleed signed for $188,800 (slot value $191,300) Round 10: 3B Michael Snyder signed for $17,500 (slot value $180,700) Round 11: RHP Jake Faherty signed for $200,000 ($50,000 goes toward bonus pool) Round 12: C Connor Caskenette signed for $100,000 Round 13: SS Cody Schrier signed for $150,000 Round 14: SS Cam Clayton signed for $150,000 Round 15: C Coen Niclai did not sign Round 16: 1B Eric Rataczak signed for $75,000 Round 17: OF Micah McDowell signed for 100,000 Round 18: LHP Nate Payne signed for $235,000 ($85,000 goes toward bonus pool) Round 19: RHP Luke Lashutka signed for $10,000 Round 20: RHP Chase Centala signed for 50,000 View full article

The Miami Marlins front office is under significant pressure entering the MLB trade deadline, writes Jim Bowden of The Athletic. Hard to disagree with that—they are thin on tradeable assets and must find a way to flip them into impactful prospects, especially Jazz Chisholm Jr. "Chisholm probably won’t get traded to the Yankees or Phillies," Bowden reports, "because many evaluators question how he would perform in those markets and fit in their clubhouses. Instead, most execs think he’ll end up being moved to the Pirates, Mariners or Giants." I frankly had not given much thought to San Francisco until now, but maybe! Thairo Estrada has had a disappointing year as their second baseman, posting the lowest walk rate among qualified MLB hitters and riding a 5-for-50 slump entering the All-Star break. Like Chisholm, Estrada is under club control through 2026. However, he could be non-tendered this offseason if he continues on his current trajectory. Coming out of the break with a 47-50 record, I suspect the Giants need to get on a hot streak before proceeding with a Chisholm acquisition or any other "buying" move. View full rumor

Offishial News for 7/19/24 On Thursday down on the farm, the Marlins finalized their agreement with first-round draft pick OF PJ Morlando, as first reported by Craig Mish of SportsGrid. Morlando receives a $3.4M signing bonus, far below the 16th overall pick's slot value of $4.7M. I confirmed that RHP Yohanfer Santana underwent Tommy John surgery. You likely haven't heard of Santana, but the 18-year-old was poised for a breakout season in the Dominican Summer League before his elbow blew out. The FCL Marlins game was suspended in the second inning due to rain. DSL Marlins won, 4-3, and lost, 10-9. INF Joseph Tailor combined to go 2-for-2 with a home run, a walk and two hit by pitches in the second game. He's been selected to the DSL All-Star Game. DSL Miami won, 7-5. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 Including the rest of their bonus pool and a 5% overage, the Morlando deal leaves Miami with $7,560,425 left to spend on other draft pick signings. I will be updating these capsules on each player as we find out their bonuses. I'll also be using that section to feature undrafted free agent pickups like UC Santa Barbara OF Jessada Brown. 🔷 Check out the latest Fish On First Top 30 prospect rankings. LHP Thomas White, RHP Noble Meyer, RHP Max Meyer and OF Victor Mesa Jr. remain in the first four spots, but there has been lots of movement outside of that, including the additions of Morlando (No. 8) and four other new draftees. 🔷 Dane Myers (left ankle fracture) was placed on the 10-day injured list retroactive to July 15. Don't be surprised if he eventually gets transferred to the 60-day IL to free up a temporary 40-man roster spot. In that case, he'd be eligible for reinstatement on September 13. For the time being, some combination of Nick Gordon, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Vidal Bruján will split up center field duties. 🔷 In 2025, the Pirates will once again visit the Marlins to kick off the regular season schedule. 🔷 Available on Homage, MLB and Guy Fieri's Flavortown have collaborated on a collection of t-shirts featuring fan-favorite ballpark concessions. For the Marlins, they selected the Cubano Gigante. The t-shirts are 20% off for a limited time. 🔷 Kevin Barral previews what to expect from the rest of this Marlins season (aside from a lot of losing). 🔷 Skip Schumaker discussed his coaching philosophy with Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald and what he admires about longtime Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra. 🔷 MLB.com's Christina De Nicola picks Jesús Luzardo as her "key player" and Max Meyer as the "prospect to watch" for the second half. She also spoke with Tanner Scott about his All-Star appearance and the support he received from his family. 🔷 Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors explains what makes A.J. Puk an "appealing target" at the trade deadline. In case you missed it earlier in the week, I compared him to Hunter Harvey. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, St. Petersburg City Council voted to approve the Rays' $1.3B ballpark and mixed-use development project. The new stadium is expected to open in 2028 and the Rays are signing a 30-year lease. Barely a year after drafting him, the Athletics are calling up infield prospect Jacob Wilson. Wilson has posted an incredible 180 wRC+ in 72 career minor league games. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter RHP Edward Cabrera) open up a four-game series against the Mets (LHP Sean Manaea). Prior to the game, expect Otto Lopez (lower back inflammation) to be reinstated from the 10-day IL to fill Dane Myers' roster spot. PJ Morlando will be at loanDepot park to address the media as his professional career officially begins. The Marlins have a 48.5% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. 🔷 Join us for a new episode of Fish On First LIVE tonight from 6:00-7:00 p.m. ET on YouTube/Twitter/Facebook. Special guest: Jeremiah Geiger. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks. If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔷 Marlins MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville vs. Durham, 7:05 p.m. ET Double-A Pensacola vs. Mississippi, 7:05 p.m. ET High-A Beloit at Peoria, 8:05 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter vs. St. Lucie, 6:30 p.m. ET DSL Marlins vs. DSL Phillies Red, 11:00 a.m. ET DSL Miami at DSL Nationals, 11:00 a.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article

He has a strong case. His control is farther behind than the other young SPs on here, but then again, he is the very youngest of the bunch. And his changeup is impressive. I'm going to quietly slide him into the honorable mentions category.

The Dominican right-hander may have been on the verge of a breakout season prior to this injury setback. Miami Marlins right-handed pitcher Yohanfer Santana recently underwent Tommy John surgery, Fish On First has learned. A native of San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, Santana signed an international free agent deal with the Marlins in 2023. His production in the Dominican Summer League over the last two seasons has been unremarkable on the surface: 31.1 IP, 7.76 ERA, 7.63 FIP, 1.95 WHIP in 13 G/10 GS. He was not included in our recent Fish On First Top 30 update. However, Eric Longenhagen explained on FanGraphs in June why the 18-year-old has immense upside: He’s built like an NBA small forward prospect at a broad-shouldered and skinny 6-foot-7, and he shows feel for three pitches. Santana’s low-90s fastball of 2023 had promising vertical ride, while his upper-70s curveball flashed the sort of depth that should play nicely with that kind of fastball, though it needed more power. At the end of the season, it felt very likely that Santana would develop immense arm strength as he matured. He has so much room for mass on his frame and his arm action is so clean and fluid — this seemed like the type of pitcher who could end up throwing 100 one day. All of that was projection, of course, based purely on visual assessment. In his first DSL start of 2024, Santana sat 93-98, debuted a slider/cutter in the 88-90 mph range and was working with a 91-94 mph changeup. Were he in the draft, he’d probably go in the mid-to-late first round and get a bonus approaching $3 million. This is a very exciting, uber-projectable 18-year-old who is in the midst of a velocity surge. The DSL start that Longenhagen references took place on June 4. Santana pitched again on June 11 and dominated (3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K). The following outing on June 18 was a rough one, though (2.0 IP, 3 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K). The Marlins placed Santana on the 60-day injured list on June 25, ending his 2024 season. Soon after, he traveled to the United States to undergo surgery. He's currently rehabbing in South Florida. Barring setbacks, it takes most pitchers 12-18 months from their TJ surgery date to return to game action. MLB prospects are understandably handled cautiously and usually fall on the high end of that range. Santana is not expected to appear in another minor league game until 2026. The FOF injury/rehab tracker will provide regular updates on Santana's progress. View full article