Ely Sussman

Once again, a non-contender has surprisingly won the bidding for a notable free agent starter, limiting the options for the teams who are most motivated to make rotation upgrades this offseason. More than a full month into MLB free agency, Thursday's reported agreement between Luis Severino and the Athletics registers as the biggest surprise we've seen. Entering his age-31 season, the right-hander is receiving a larger guarantee ($67 million) than any player in A's history despite the club coming off a 93-loss campaign and expected to spend the duration of that deal housed in a minor league ballpark (Sacramento's Sutter Health Park). Severino's signing was not an isolated incident, though. In late November, the similarly bad Los Angeles Angels inked left-hander Yusei Kikuchi to a similar contract (three years, $63 million). Across the board, it's been expensive to sign starting pitchers during this free agent cycle. When adding the wrinkle that a pair of desirable mid-rotation arms have found unexpected landing spots, the supply of starters available to contenders is dwindling. Six of the top 13 FA SPs as ranked by MLB Trade Rumors are off the market (Severino, Kikuchi, Blake Snell, Matthew Boyd, Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez), and only two of those six went to 2024 postseason teams. There are going to be teams who want a new quality starter, but either can't find what they're looking for in free agency or can't get their owner to pay what it takes for their primary target. That is where the Miami Marlins come in. If trade inquiries regarding their major league starting pitchers haven't been coming in already, they should soon. The organization is loaded with arms on the right side of 30 who have multiple years of club control remaining at well-below market value salaries. For several of Miami's potential trade chips, it's awkward timing. Sandy Alcantara missed all of last season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Jesús Luzardo (lumbar stress reaction) and Braxton Garrett (left forearm flexor strain, followed by a left elbow impingement) were sidelined from mid-June onward and underperformed even when they were on the mound. In each of those cases, the Marlins probably prefer to be patient and have them re-establish themselves in regular season action (and give the 2025 team some hope of actually winning games). That is, unless a desperate suitor is willing to overlook their health setbacks and bolster their trade offers to reflect that. Ryan Weathers returned from his own lengthy IL stint in time to finish September with a flourish. However, he isn't even arbitration-eligible yet. Neither is Eury Pérez or Max Meyer, both of whom also hurt their throwing arms earlier this year. There is no urgency to include them in trades right now. Although Valente Bellozo far exceeded expectations as a rookie (124 ERA+ in 13 GS), there are serious questions about the sustainability of his pitching style given his limited velocity and dependency on fly balls. It's hard to imagine any good team counting on him to be in their starting rotation based on what he's done to this point. The most logical trade candidate of the bunch, in my opinion, is Edward Cabrera. The homegrown right-hander who's been very difficult to hit (career .213 BAA) has four years of club control still to go, and during the second half of 2024, he showed a newfound willingness to challenge opponents in the strike zone. The Marlins front office reportedly included Cabrera in trade talks last offseason. He's about to go through the arbitration process for the first time. Regardless of which starter(s) ultimately get discussed, expect the Marlins to prioritize years of control when asking for players in return. If they are going to continue to thin out a rotation that lacked sufficient depth last season, it's because they have an opportunity to acquire young talent that better aligns with their competitive window. View full article

Today's news roundup also includes a summary of last weekend's FanFest event. The Marlins held their annual FanFest at loanDepot park on Saturday. A team spokesperson claims that over 18,000 people attended, but a source within the organization tells Fish On First only 7,400 tickets were scanned. Regardless of what the real turnout was, our on-site reporting suggests that things went smoothly. The "special alumni announcement" that had been teased in advance was the creation of the Marlins Legends Hall of Fame. The inaugural class consists of Jeff Conine, Jim Leyland, Jack McKeon and Luis Castillo; they will be inducted on March 30, July 6, August 3 and August 24, respectively. The Marlins also announced that their new City Connect uniforms will be used for the first time on May 3. Still no hints about what the unis will look like, though. Marlins Opening Day is 45 days away. Beginning next week, Offishial News returns to its usual Monday-Friday schedule and our email newsletter expands to seven days a week. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Check out my updated Opening Day roster projection. I removed Andrew Nardi following ominous comments from manager Clayton McCullough about him being "a little bit behind" schedule in his throwing progression. Also, contrary to popular opinion, I think Eric Wagaman will start off the season in Triple-A. Nearly half of the players I picked weren't even part of the Marlins organization last Opening Day. 🔷 The starting rotation is unsettled beyond the top three spots, as I noted. MLB.com's Christina De Nicola picked that as her No. 1 spring training story for the Fish. 🔷 The first pitchers and catchers workout will be held in Jupiter on Wednesday. That is also when the 60-day injured list opens. At some point this spring, Eury Pérez and Braxton Garrett will be placed on the 60-day, but only when there are corresponding moves made to fill their 40-man roster spots. This page will be regularly updated to show who's in big league camp. 🔷 Here's a clever/infuriating table from BrooksGate showing how this season's Marlins payroll is projected to be approximately the same as it was 20 years ago despite prices for various other things rising dramatically due to inflation. MLB revenues have also exploded during that period. (Using the Spotrac payroll estimate lowballs the team's actual spending by several million dollars, but the general point still applies.) 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Dodgers are re-signing Kiké Hernández to a one-year deal. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Today's news roundup also includes the annual Marlins ZiPS projections, and they're not very encouraging. On this day 17 years ago, the Marlins dealt Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers for a handful of highly regarded prospects. It was "one of the worst trades in baseball history," Alex Krutchik explained in the Jeffrey Loria section of the new Fish On First ownership guide. Cabrera was inarguably baseball's best hitter during the early 2010s and he'd remain in Detroit through the end of his career in 2023, surpassing 3,000 hits and 500 home runs. FOF SuperSub Sean Millerick suspects that it's only a matter of time before current Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is traded as well in a financially motivated move. "They just can’t afford to get another blockbuster deal like this one wrong," he writes for the IBWAA Newsletter. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Speaking of trade possibilities, Reice Stark came up with five hypothetical deals that the Marlins should try to make this offseason, acquiring either prospects or former top prospects whose initial hype has worn off. 🔷 We have introduced a Marlins payroll blueprint tool. How would you assemble the 2025 roster on a $90 million budget? Submit your ideas. 🔷 Marlins director of amateur scouting Frankie Piliere spoke to MLB.com's Christina De Nicola about how significant it'd be for the team to win the 2025 MLB Draft lottery, which takes place on Tuesday during the Winter Meetings. The Marlins haven't held the No. 1 overall draft pick since 2000 when they took Adrián González. 🔷 Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs posted his ZiPS projections for the 2025 Marlins. Here's his summary: "Should the Marlins have better luck with the health of the pitching staff, they could get just enough from their offense to squeeze into the playoffs. For that to happen, though, they’d probably need other teams to underperform...As far as team goals go, it’s a rather depressing one, but until the Marlins get better at drafting and developing position players or decide to spend more in free agency, this is the organization’s best case scenario." 🔷 Leo Morgenstern of Just Baseball makes the case that the Marlins are the best fit for free agent center fielder Harrison Bader (and I agree with that). 🔷 Former Marlins CEO Derek Jeter was back in Miami on Tuesday to check out a collection of paintings celebrating iconic moments from his playing career. The collection remains open through Sunday. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, every team still alive in the bidding for top free agent Juan Soto has reportedly bid at least $600 million. Soto's signing decision is expected within the next week. The Red Sox signed Aroldis Chapman to a one-year, $10.75 million deal. The Royals struck a new deal with Diamond Sports Group for local television rights. That leaves seven MLB teams who are still being carried by FanDuel Sports Network affiliates (including the Marlins). Marlins podcast episodes View full article

In an interview with Foul Territory, new Marlins manager Clayton McCullough explains what lessons learned from his Dodgers days can be implemented in Miami and how to overcome the disadvantage of being a small-market team. View full video

This involves trading for Christian Vázquez and Ronny Mauricio and signing Spencer Turnbull and Matt Moore to one-year free agent deals, as explained last month in my offseason blueprint article C: Agustin Ramirez ($0.80M) 1B: Jake Burger ($0.80M) 2B: Otto Lopez ($0.80M) 3B: Connor Norby ($0.80M) SS: Xavier Edwards ($0.80M) LF: Jesus Sanchez ($3.20M) CF: Dane Myers ($0.80M) RF: Griffin Conine ($0.80M) DH: Jonah Bride ($0.80M) 4th OF: Kyle Stowers ($0.80M) 5th OF: Derek Hill ($0.80M) Utility: Ronny Mauricio ($0.80M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Sandy Alcantara ($17.30M) SP2: Jesus Luzardo ($6.00M) SP3: Ryan Weathers ($0.80M) SP4: Braxton Garrett ($1.80M) SP5: Spencer Turnbull ($5.00M) RP: Calvin Faucher ($1.00M) RP: Andrew Nardi ($0.80M) RP: Jesus Tinoco ($0.80M) RP: Anthony Bender ($1.40M) RP: Declan Cronin ($0.80M) RP: Matt Moore ($2.50M) RP: Lake Bachar ($0.80M) RP: Xzavion Curry ($0.80M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 31.33% under budget

Generally speaking, the Marlins struggled on defense in 2024, but spectacular moments like these still saved runs and turned into timeless highlights. View full video

Today's news roundup also includes an introduction to our Marlins ownership guide. On Sunday in winter ball competition, OF Dane Myers stole a base off the bench, RF Troy Johnston went 1-for-5 with 1 RBI and INF Johnny Olmstead went 0-for-3 with a walk. Johnston, who is typically a first baseman, has now played four straight games in the corner outfield spots for Toros del Este. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Introducing our complete Marlins ownership guide! Alex Carver, Alex Krutchik and I collaborated to summarize the tenures of Wayne Huizenga, John Henry, Jeffrey Loria and Bruce Sherman, including their accomplishments, shortcomings and controversies as stewards of the franchise. 🔷 Long-awaited renovations to Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium are underway. In time for the start of spring training, a new drainage system is being installed and the bullpen mounds are being moved from foul territory to beyond the outfield walls. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Japan's Munetaka Murakami announced that he will be coming to Major League Baseball after the 2025 season. The star slugger has averaged 37 home runs over the last six seasons, though he also perennially ranks among the Nippon Professional Baseball leaders in strikeouts. He turns 25 years old in February. The Mets have signed RHP Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million deal with an opt-out after the first year, while the Cubs and LHP Matthew Boyd have agreed on a two-year, $29 million deal. 🔷 Every offseason, free agency shows us how desperate teams are for competent starting pitching. The contracts that Montas and Boyd got are robust for prototypical No. 4 starters who've had significant injury issues in the recent past. Their 2025 salaries will be comparable to Sandy Alcantara's and several times higher than anybody else on the Marlins pitching staff. Although there is no urgency to shop arms this offseason (like the arbitration-eligible Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett), their relative youth and affordability would make them attractive to any team. View full article

The long overdue Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium renovations have begun. When the dust settles, Marlins Grapefruit League games should be comfortable for both players and fans. Spring training baseball returns to Jupiter in less than three months. The 2025 edition will look different than it has over the past two-plus decades as Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium modernizes. Key components of the renovation project that the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals have spent years pushing for began this week, Mike Diamond of the Palm Beach Post reports. All of the old grass at Roger Dean has been excavated and workers began laying sod on Monday as a new drainage system is being installed. Rain only falls sporadically throughout February and March, but this will come in handy during the regular season when the Jupiter Hammerheads and Palm Beach Cardinals combine to use the facility six days a week. Hopefully, more efficient drainage will cut down on the number of games that get postponed due to "wet grounds." No more bullpens along the foul lines—those are being relocated beyond the outfield walls. Those are the first wave of renovations. The majority of the work will be done after spring training, according to the Marlins. The teams' clubhouses will still be in separate buildings from the ballpark itself, but Roger Dean general manager Mike Bauer says "we will add on both sides to increase the square footage so we can take care of the deficiencies we had. There’ll be more space for a larger weight room, more space for physical training and hydrotherapy.“ In terms of fan-friendly changes, the stadium is setting up complimentary Wi-Fi. The gift shop will be expanded to three times its original size. There are new socialization spaces coming to left field and center field. The Fish On First staff will be pleased to hear about the upcoming pressbox improvements. The Marlins and Cardinals are receiving some financial assistance from both the state of Florida and Palm Beach County on the $108 million project. Marlins spring training tickets went on sale earlier this month. Dynamic pricing applies to single-game tickets, with reserved box seats going for $42, $49 or $56 a seat depending on the popularity of the matchup (yes, I see the irony in median prices for Marlins exhibition games being significantly higher than regular season games at loanDepot park). View full article

Well, so much for that 😂 Still will be fun to follow the rest of the way. Playoffs have essentially begun—might need to win 5 straight just to make it in.

It's been a long time since the Marlins have made any long-term commitments. It is only natural for Miami Marlins fans to be envious. Since Opening Day, they've seen the Arizona Diamondbacks (Ketel Marte and Brandon Pfaadt), Boston Red Sox (Garrett Crochet and Kristian Campbell) and San Diego Padres (Jackson Merrill) announce contract extensions that will retain key players into the 2030s, not to mention the handful of similar deals that were completed across the league during spring training. Meanwhile in Miami, the only constant is change. In early 2024, Luis Arraez and Jesús Luzardo were both transparent about their desire to stay with the club for many years—the Marlins traded them later that year. Pablo López signed an extension shortly after being dealt to the Minnesota Twins in 2023, as did Miguel Rojas upon joining the Los Angeles Dodgers. Peter Bendix has not extended any player since being hired as president of baseball operations. Neither did Kim Ng during the second half of her tenure as general manager. The most recent Marlin to agree to an extension was reliever Richard Bleier—that forgettable two-year, $6 million pact was announced more than three years ago (March 22, 2022). In the meantime, 27 of the 30 MLB teams have extended at least one of their own guys, according to MLB Trade Rumors. The only exceptions to that have been the Marlins, Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees. (Although it was a free agent deal rather than an extension, the Yankees kept the face of their franchise, Aaron Judge, and subsequently named him team captain.) Why are extensions important? Well, prior to Bleier, the Marlins locked up Sandy Alcantara in November 2021. That shrewd five-year, $56 million deal is the only reason he's still in Miami right now. Had they waited until after his subsequent Cy Young award-winning season to negotiate, Alcantara would have had the leverage to ask for more guaranteed money than the franchise was comfortable committing to an individual pitcher. Without an extension, he was on track to reach free agency following the 2024 season; instead, he's under club control through 2027. 1j25vg.mp4 Low-revenue teams like the Marlins should be utilizing extensions even more than average teams because they will inevitably be priced out of premium free agents. They need to roll the dice on young players before their potential is fully realized in order to eventually contend on a tight budget (their payroll is the lowest in the majors entering 2025). The most logical extension candidates for any club are up-the-middle position players. Catcher Joe Mack had a breakout season at Double-A in 2024, excelling both offensively and defensively against much older competition. If this year mirrors that one, Mack deserves consideration for a pre-debut extension entering 2026. In the meantime, shortstop Xavier Edwards and second baseman Otto Lopez are top of mind. Both have valuable skill sets, but ones that typically don't pay well in arbitration—Edwards has never and will never hit for power, while Lopez is a standout defender. They are two seasons away from even becoming arb-eligible, so the Marlins wouldn't have to break the bank. Current Triple-A Jacksonville catcher Agustín Ramírez is a fascinating case. He will inevitably move off of the position, especially if Mack pans out, but his potential with the bat is immense. Poised to debut by the midpoint of 2025, perhaps a positive first impression compels the the front office to sign him next winter. No player in the Marlins organization has a higher ceiling than Eury Pérez. I'm very skeptical about him being a realistic extension candidate because of his combination of youth and pure stuff. Due to hit free agency as a 26-year-old, he is practically assured of getting a massive contract even if he pitches sparingly between now and then. The Marlins should make an attempt, nonetheless. View full article

The 2025 Miami Marlins coaching staff is gradually filling out. Clayton McCullough's first hire was hitting coach Pedro Guerrero, and now, Carson Vitale has been plucked from the Seattle Mariners to serve as bench coach, as reported by MLB.com's Daniel Kramer. Like McCullough and Guerrero, Vitale had a brief professional playing career (2010-2011 with the Texas Rangers organization), but never reached the majors. He began coaching in 2012 with the Los Angeles Angels and managed their Dominican Summer League affiliate from 2014-2015. After that, he was hired by the Los Angeles Dodgers as international field coordinator, which is where he crossed paths with McCullough. He has spent the last seven seasons with Seattle, including the last five as their major league field coordinator. The 36-year-old also has a terrific beard, as you can see.

Today's news roundup also includes highlights from the final season of Paul Severino's play-by-play tenure. On Sunday in winter ball competition, UTIL Vidal Bruján went 1-for-3 with a walk and a stolen base. INF Johnny Olmstead went 1-for-3 with a walk. Gigantes del Cibao got rained out, postponing what would have been the first start of the season for OF Dane Myers. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 An agreement had been in place for months, but on Saturday, the Marlins officially signed Cuban INF Luis Manuel León. Francys Romero confirms that León received a $1.5M signing bonus, the largest of any player in the Marlins' 2024 international free agent class. It's possible that we see some smaller deals between now and the closing of this international period on December 15. The 2025 signing period opens on January 15. 🔷 Romero also reported that the Marlins have struck a minor league deal with RHP Robinson Piña. It includes an invitation to big league camp. A longtime Angels prospect, Piña spent his age-25 season in the Phillies organization. He has pitched 156 ⅔ innings overall this year when combining MiLB and LIDOM experience, showing great control by issuing only 30 walks. 🔷 Marlins play-by-play announcer Paul Severino announced on Friday that he isn't being brought back next season. I stitched together all 10 of his walk-off calls from 2024. 🔷 New Marlins director of pitching Bill Hezel gave his first interview since accepting the position (embedded below). In it, he articulated his philosophy as "building the best arsenal possible for our pitchers with respect to their uniqueness...and encourage them to be as aggressive as they possibly can inside the strike zone with that arsenal." 🔷 Cody Christie of Twins Daily proposes two trade packages for bringing Jesús Luzardo to Minnesota. I don't think Luzardo gets moved this offseason, but the Royce Lewis idea is intriguing and balanced. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Phillies have reportedly held meetings with top free agent Juan Soto. They are being told to submit contract offers this week. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

It's a Marlins win! Listen to Severino's play-by-play calls of Miami's 10 walk-off victories from this past season. Best of luck to Severino in whatever comes next for his career! View full video