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Fish On First's 2025 Hall of Fame ballot
Ely Sussman replied to Louis Addeo-Weiss's topic in Other Baseball
This is exactly the way things are trending based on the votes that have been revealed so far (https://tracker.fyi/). Ichiro, Sabathia and Wagner comfortably above 75%. Beltran is currently right around 75%, but the "private" voters always pick fewer players than the public ones, so he will dip below the threshold when all the ballots are accounted for. -
Today's news roundup also includes an enlightening breakdown of a mostly anonymous Marlins reliever. Leading off, apologies to anybody who attempted to visit the site from Saturday night through early Sunday afternoon while Fish On First dealt with some technical issues. Those have since been fully resolved. Marlins Opening Day is 80 days away. Let's get to the 2025 debut of Offishial News... 🔷 The lone player in the Marlins organization who's still competing in winter ball is Troy Johnston. After his regular season team, Toros del Este, was eliminated, the two-time defending Dominican Winter League champion Tigres del Licey drafted him. Through four playoff games, Johnston is slashing .200/.200/.467, including a home run in Sunday's victory. 🔷 Licey's captain and leadoff hitter is old friend Emilio Bonifácio. Remember him? One of only two former Florida Marlins who continues to play professionally, I wrote about how Bonifácio has aged extremely gracefully. 🔷 The announcement of the 2025 Marlins coaching staff is not imminent, but other than third base coach, all of the essential uniformed positions have seemingly been filled. Under the direction of manager Clayton McCullough, the club has hired bench coach Carson Vitale, pitching coach Daniel Moskos, assistant pitching coach Alon Leichman, hitting coach Pedro Guerrero, assistant hitting coach Derek Shomon, first base coach Tyler Smarslok, bullpen coach Brandon Mann (reassigned after serving as pitching strategist in 2024), catching coach Joe Singley and field coordinator Aaron Leanhardt. Just wanted to list all of the names neatly like that in case you've had trouble following sporadic reports on the situation. 🔷 Our staff collaborated on a hypothetical 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. As Louis Addeo-Weiss details, we selected nine candidates: Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones, Manny Ramírez, Álex Rodríguez, CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, Chase Utley and Billy Wagner. According to the Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker, Suzuki, Sabathia, Wagner and Beltrán have received at least 75% of the vote on the BBWAA ballots that have been revealed so far. 🔷 Alex Carver asked Marlins fans what changes and improvements they'd like to see from the franchise this year. 🔷 Congratulations to @Sean Millerick on winning the Fish On First SuperSubs fantasy football league! Although my team was atrocious in that league, I was the champ of our FOF staff league this season (shoutout to Joe Burrow, Drake London, Jonathan Taylor and Terry McLaurin, among others). 🔷 MLB.com's Christina De Nicola mentions Chris Flexen and Spencer Turnbull as under-the-radar free agent fits for the Marlins. I fully agree on Turnbull, who was featured in my offseason blueprint. 🔷 Isaac Groffman did a deep dive on Lake Bachar's unique pitch characteristics, theorizing that Bachar could benefit from locating his fastball up in the strike zone and using his slider to get chases outside the zone. In related news, congrats to Bachar and his wife, Stephanie, who announced that they're expecting their second child this summer. 🔷 Our DiamondCentric network of sites now includes Toronto Blue Jays coverage. Check out Jays Centre for FOF-style coverage of the team north of the border. View full article
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Leading off, apologies to anybody who attempted to visit the site from Saturday night through early Sunday afternoon while Fish On First dealt with some technical issues. Those have since been fully resolved. Marlins Opening Day is 80 days away. Let's get to the 2025 debut of Offishial News... 🔷 The lone player in the Marlins organization who's still competing in winter ball is Troy Johnston. After his regular season team, Toros del Este, was eliminated, the two-time defending Dominican Winter League champion Tigres del Licey drafted him. Through four playoff games, Johnston is slashing .200/.200/.467, including a home run in Sunday's victory. 🔷 Licey's captain and leadoff hitter is old friend Emilio Bonifácio. Remember him? One of only two former Florida Marlins who continues to play professionally, I wrote about how Bonifácio has aged extremely gracefully. 🔷 The announcement of the 2025 Marlins coaching staff is not imminent, but other than third base coach, all of the essential uniformed positions have seemingly been filled. Under the direction of manager Clayton McCullough, the club has hired bench coach Carson Vitale, pitching coach Daniel Moskos, assistant pitching coach Alon Leichman, hitting coach Pedro Guerrero, assistant hitting coach Derek Shomon, first base coach Tyler Smarslok, bullpen coach Brandon Mann (reassigned after serving as pitching strategist in 2024), catching coach Joe Singley and field coordinator Aaron Leanhardt. Just wanted to list all of the names neatly like that in case you've had trouble following sporadic reports on the situation. 🔷 Our staff collaborated on a hypothetical 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. As Louis Addeo-Weiss details, we selected nine candidates: Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones, Manny Ramírez, Álex Rodríguez, CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, Chase Utley and Billy Wagner. According to the Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker, Suzuki, Sabathia, Wagner and Beltrán have received at least 75% of the vote on the BBWAA ballots that have been revealed so far. 🔷 Alex Carver asked Marlins fans what changes and improvements they'd like to see from the franchise this year. 🔷 Congratulations to @Sean Millerick on winning the Fish On First SuperSubs fantasy football league! Although my team was atrocious in that league, I was the champ of our FOF staff league this season (shoutout to Joe Burrow, Drake London, Jonathan Taylor and Terry McLaurin, among others). 🔷 MLB.com's Christina De Nicola mentions Chris Flexen and Spencer Turnbull as under-the-radar free agent fits for the Marlins. I fully agree on Turnbull, who was featured in my offseason blueprint. 🔷 Isaac Groffman did a deep dive on Lake Bachar's unique pitch characteristics, theorizing that Bachar could benefit from locating his fastball up in the strike zone and using his slider to get chases outside the zone. In related news, congrats to Bachar and his wife, Stephanie, who announced that they're expecting their second child this summer. 🔷 Our DiamondCentric network of sites now includes Toronto Blue Jays coverage. Check out Jays Centre for FOF-style coverage of the team north of the border.
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Bonifácio is one of the few players from the franchise's "Florida" era who remains active. It doesn't seem as though he's ready to retire anytime soon. The Dominican Winter League (LIDOM) is largely populated by Quad-A players, especially during the annual Round Robin postseason tournament which began last week. Then there's the curious case of Emilio Bonifácio, who at this rate could become the league's first AARP member. A few months shy of turning 40, Bonifácio is still the everyday leadoff hitter for Tigres del Licey as they pursue a third consecutive national championship. You probably assumed that Bonifácio had long since retired as a player. Understandably so! His legendary Opening Day performance (4-for-5 with an inside-the-park home run and three stolen bases) was way back in 2009. He last played for the Marlins in 2012. He has not homered in the majors since 2014, and outside of a three-game cup of coffee with the Washington Nationals, he hasn't gotten MLB reps since 2017. Bonifácio no longer has ambitions to return to the U.S.—that COVID season call-up with the Nats was the last time he played professionally (at any level) during the summer months. However, the Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic native continues to thrive in his 16th season with Licey. During his 2024 LIDOM regular season, Bonifácio slashed .291/.369/.386, far above the league's .245/.324/.352 average despite being a full decade older than his competition. The extraordinary part is, he's not just a role player: he is a staple of Licey's lineup. Bonifácio easily led the league with 55 hits and tied for third with 13 stolen bases. He also started 42 of the club's 49 games in center field. For context, the last player his age to make even a single CF appearance in the major leagues was future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki. Licey posted a 27-22 record and qualified for the LIDOM Round Robin. Beginning last Thursday, they're playing 18 games in a 20-day span against Estrellas Orientales, Águilas Cibaeñas and Leones del Escogido in their quest to three-peat as champions. They have gone 3-1 so far and Bonifácio played a crucial role in their most recent victory on Sunday (3-5, R, SB). How many 39-year-olds do you know who still run like this?! UUFCUTVfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1VsZFhWQUlFVUFFQUR3WUdWUUFBQWdCZUFBTldBbGNBQUFNQ1V3c05WQVZUVkFSVA==.mp4 The Florida Marlin is an endangered species. Aside from Bonifácio, Giancarlo Stanton is the only other vestige of the pre-2012 Marlins to play a professional game within the past year. Although Stanton is 4.5 years younger and has millions of more reasons (dollars) incentivizing him to continue his career, I wouldn't be shocked if Bonifácio outlasts him. View full article
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The Dominican Winter League (LIDOM) is largely populated by Quad-A players, especially during the annual Round Robin postseason tournament which began last week. Then there's the curious case of Emilio Bonifácio, who at this rate could become the league's first AARP member. A few months shy of turning 40, Bonifácio is still the everyday leadoff hitter for Tigres del Licey as they pursue a third consecutive national championship. You probably assumed that Bonifácio had long since retired as a player. Understandably so! His legendary Opening Day performance (4-for-5 with an inside-the-park home run and three stolen bases) was way back in 2009. He last played for the Marlins in 2012. He has not homered in the majors since 2014, and outside of a three-game cup of coffee with the Washington Nationals, he hasn't gotten MLB reps since 2017. Bonifácio no longer has ambitions to return to the U.S.—that COVID season call-up with the Nats was the last time he played professionally (at any level) during the summer months. However, the Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic native continues to thrive in his 16th season with Licey. During his 2024 LIDOM regular season, Bonifácio slashed .291/.369/.386, far above the league's .245/.324/.352 average despite being a full decade older than his competition. The extraordinary part is, he's not just a role player: he is a staple of Licey's lineup. Bonifácio easily led the league with 55 hits and tied for third with 13 stolen bases. He also started 42 of the club's 49 games in center field. For context, the last player his age to make even a single CF appearance in the major leagues was future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki. Licey posted a 27-22 record and qualified for the LIDOM Round Robin. Beginning last Thursday, they're playing 18 games in a 20-day span against Estrellas Orientales, Águilas Cibaeñas and Leones del Escogido in their quest to three-peat as champions. They have gone 3-1 so far and Bonifácio played a crucial role in their most recent victory on Sunday (3-5, R, SB). How many 39-year-olds do you know who still run like this?! UUFCUTVfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1VsZFhWQUlFVUFFQUR3WUdWUUFBQWdCZUFBTldBbGNBQUFNQ1V3c05WQVZUVkFSVA==.mp4 The Florida Marlin is an endangered species. Aside from Bonifácio, Giancarlo Stanton is the only other vestige of the pre-2012 Marlins to play a professional game within the past year. Although Stanton is 4.5 years younger and has millions of more reasons (dollars) incentivizing him to continue his career, I wouldn't be shocked if Bonifácio outlasts him.
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Simply being included on the initial active roster is a significant milestone for the vast majority of 2025 Marlins. Throughout spring training, we anticipated that the Miami Marlins would enter 2025 with one of Major League Baseball's least-experienced rosters. A handful of untimely injuries have forced them to be even more reliant on neophytes. Making the Opening Day roster is a new sensation for 17 of the club's 26 active players: Lake Bachar, Valente Bellozo, Griffin Conine, Xavier Edwards, Connor Gillispie, Ronny Henriquez, Liam Hicks, Derek Hill, Otto Lopez, Matt Mervis, Dane Myers, Tyler Phillips, Javier Sanoja, Kyle Stowers, Jesús Tinoco, Anthony Veneziano and Eric Wagaman. Jonah Bride, Calvin Faucher, Max Meyer, Graham Pauley and George Soriano are going through this for the second time in their careers. Anthony Bender and Nick Fortes are each three-time Opening Day selections. Far and away the most experienced Marlins players are Sandy Alcantara and Cal Quantrill, who are taking part in their sixth Opening Day as big leaguers. Barring setbacks, "veterans" Edward Cabrera and Jesús Sánchez are expected to return from the injured list before the end of April, but considering the strength of the Marlins' early-season opponents, they might already be facing a sizable deficit in the standings by then. View full article
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- xavier edwards
- otto lopez
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As we flip the calendar to 2025, there are only a few remnants left behind from Kim Ng's tenure. Just because there is a method to the madness doesn't mean you have to embrace every aspect of it. In 2023, the Miami Marlins had one of their most successful seasons in franchise history, yet as we close out 2024, the majority of players who made that postseason berth possible are gone. Generally speaking, new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has gotten fair value in return for those who've been traded. It's still been an uncomfortable process with the Marlins seemingly eager to ship off so many players who accomplished something notable together, especially when it leaves the club with little chance of having the same kind of success in the near-term future. Only eight of the 26 Marlins included on the National League Wild Card Series roster remain in Miami: Edward Cabrera, Xavier Edwards, Nick Fortes, Braxton Garrett, Andrew Nardi, Jesús Sánchez, George Soriano and Ryan Weathers. The Washington Nationals' recent signing of Josh Bell means that every NL East team has a member of that postseason roster under contract entering 2025. Depending on how the rest of free agency plays out, former Fish could be scattered across half of all MLB organizations. Here is another way of looking at. Only the highlighted names below were part of the Marlins organization when Kim Ng departed as general manager. That means 22 members (55%) of the current 40-man roster have been acquired since then. Fast-forward another year, it's reasonable to assume that several more 2023 Marlins will have new homes. Bendix sees relievers as fungible, so those who perform well in 2025 should garner trade interest. The biggest question is what happens with Sandy Alcantara. Unavailable to contribute during the recent playoff run due to injury, he has completed his Tommy John surgery rehab...just in time for his salary to spike (he'll make $17.3 million each of the next two seasons, followed by a $21 million club option for 2027). Unless the Marlins intend to extend their ace again so that his contract aligns with their realistic competitive window, the end of his tenure could be nearing. View full article
- 4 replies
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- xavier edwards
- jesus sanchez
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Just because there is a method to the madness doesn't mean you have to embrace every aspect of it. In 2023, the Miami Marlins had one of their most successful seasons in franchise history, yet as we close out 2024, the majority of players who made that postseason berth possible are gone. Generally speaking, new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has gotten fair value in return for those who've been traded. It's still been an uncomfortable process with the Marlins seemingly eager to ship off so many players who accomplished something notable together, especially when it leaves the club with little chance of having the same kind of success in the near-term future. Only eight of the 26 Marlins included on the National League Wild Card Series roster remain in Miami: Edward Cabrera, Xavier Edwards, Nick Fortes, Braxton Garrett, Andrew Nardi, Jesús Sánchez, George Soriano and Ryan Weathers. The Washington Nationals' recent signing of Josh Bell means that every NL East team has a member of that postseason roster under contract entering 2025. Depending on how the rest of free agency plays out, former Fish could be scattered across half of all MLB organizations. Here is another way of looking at. Only the highlighted names below were part of the Marlins organization when Kim Ng departed as general manager. That means 22 members (55%) of the current 40-man roster have been acquired since then. Fast-forward another year, it's reasonable to assume that several more 2023 Marlins will have new homes. Bendix sees relievers as fungible, so those who perform well in 2025 should garner trade interest. The biggest question is what happens with Sandy Alcantara. Unavailable to contribute during the recent playoff run due to injury, he has completed his Tommy John surgery rehab...just in time for his salary to spike (he'll make $17.3 million each of the next two seasons, followed by a $21 million club option for 2027). Unless the Marlins intend to extend their ace again so that his contract aligns with their realistic competitive window, the end of his tenure could be nearing.
- 4 comments
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- xavier edwards
- jesus sanchez
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I was eager to see him in the fall league coming off that hot finish to the season, but he got hurt early on. A good performance out there would have earned him an invite for sure. Considering his age and assuming he's fully healthy again, you're right that he could still get invited anyway.
- 5 replies
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- kemp alderman
- josh ekness
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Marlins acquire Matt Mervis from Cubs
Ely Sussman replied to Nate Karzmer's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
All I can think of his swing decisions. Bruján was almost on par with Edwards last season with his balance of attacking pitches in the zone and avoiding chasing. I still don't see him making good enough contact for that to matter. -
Today's news roundup also includes details about new free agent pick-up Freddy Tarnok and a summary of the past year's Marlins trade activity. The Marlins made a small but seemingly very popular move on Sunday, acquiring Matt Mervis and cash considerations from the Cubs for Vidal Bruján, who had been designated for assignment earlier this month. Both players are entering their age-27 season and have had awful MLB production thus far, though at least Mervis has a minor league option left so he doesn't need to be forced onto Miami's Opening Day roster unless he merits a spot. Mervis is an extreme pull hitter who makes a lot of loud contact. The main concern is how much he whiffed in 2024, particularly late in the season (40.2 K% in August/September). Perhaps the Marlins feel his midseason hamate injury contributed to that lousy finish. Mervis' playing time figures to come at first base and designated hitter against right-handed pitching. Look out for an updated Fish On First roster projection later this week. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 RHP Freddy Tarnok has signed a minor league deal with the Fish and received an invite to big league camp, per Just Baseball's Aram Leighton. He will "get a shot to start" despite mainly being used as a reliever in Triple-A last season (never surpassed 2.1 IP in any appearance). Tarnok's workload has been severely limited since 2023 due to shoulder, calf and hip injuries. His fastball sits around 95 mph and his arsenal includes a slider, curveball and changeup. He briefly pitched in the majors for the Braves and Athletics from 2022-2023 (4.70 ERA, 6.84 FIP and .211 BAA in 15.1 IP). 🔷 Including the Mervis/Bruján swap, the Marlins made 15 substantial trades in 2024. Did they get enough value in return? I summarized all of their activity here. 🔷 While training at Tread Athletics, Declan Cronin demonstrated how he grips his four-seam fastball and his keys for throwing it effectively. 77m9l2.mp4 🔷 Danny Martinez writes about the Marlins' struggle to elicit local fan support and why the fans themselves are not to blame. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Corbin Burnes (6-YR/$210M) signed with the Diamondbacks, reportedly settling for less guaranteed money than the Blue Jays and Giants offered him. Josh Bell (1-YR/$6M) signed with the Nationals. Bell was previously in Washington from 2021-2022, posting a higher wRC+ (130) and lower strikeout rate (16.1%) there than he has during his tenures with any other teams. Bell was an everyday first baseman back then, but the 32-year-old slots in as their primary DH this time around. Marlins podcast episodes View full article
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The Marlins made a small but seemingly very popular move on Sunday, acquiring Matt Mervis and cash considerations from the Cubs for Vidal Bruján, who had been designated for assignment earlier this month. Both players are entering their age-27 season and have had awful MLB production thus far, though at least Mervis has a minor league option left so he doesn't need to be forced onto Miami's Opening Day roster unless he merits a spot. Mervis is an extreme pull hitter who makes a lot of loud contact. The main concern is how much he whiffed in 2024, particularly late in the season (40.2 K% in August/September). Perhaps the Marlins feel his midseason hamate injury contributed to that lousy finish. Mervis' playing time figures to come at first base and designated hitter against right-handed pitching. Look out for an updated Fish On First roster projection later this week. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 RHP Freddy Tarnok has signed a minor league deal with the Fish and received an invite to big league camp, per Just Baseball's Aram Leighton. He will "get a shot to start" despite mainly being used as a reliever in Triple-A last season (never surpassed 2.1 IP in any appearance). Tarnok's workload has been severely limited since 2023 due to shoulder, calf and hip injuries. His fastball sits around 95 mph and his arsenal includes a slider, curveball and changeup. He briefly pitched in the majors for the Braves and Athletics from 2022-2023 (4.70 ERA, 6.84 FIP and .211 BAA in 15.1 IP). 🔷 Including the Mervis/Bruján swap, the Marlins made 15 substantial trades in 2024. Did they get enough value in return? I summarized all of their activity here. 🔷 While training at Tread Athletics, Declan Cronin demonstrated how he grips his four-seam fastball and his keys for throwing it effectively. 77m9l2.mp4 🔷 Danny Martinez writes about the Marlins' struggle to elicit local fan support and why the fans themselves are not to blame. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Corbin Burnes (6-YR/$210M) signed with the Diamondbacks, reportedly settling for less guaranteed money than the Blue Jays and Giants offered him. Josh Bell (1-YR/$6M) signed with the Nationals. Bell was previously in Washington from 2021-2022, posting a higher wRC+ (130) and lower strikeout rate (16.1%) there than he has during his tenures with any other teams. Bell was an everyday first baseman back then, but the 32-year-old slots in as their primary DH this time around. Marlins podcast episodes
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How much total value Marlins acquired, sent away in 2024 trades
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Several times throughout their history, the Miami Marlins have seized control of a seller's market, making numerous trades in quick succession that push back their competition timeline in pursuit of a long-term objective. It was not immediately clear what direction Peter Bendix would steer the franchise upon being hired in November 2023, but he began following that familiar script soon after the start of Miami's disastrous 2024 campaign. While it's way too soon to draw conclusions based on the results, now's an appropriate time to reflect on a hyperactive year and try to quantity what the Marlins parted with compared to what they received in return. Baseball Trade Values got a bad rap in the early 2020s when wishful fans constantly concocted and screenshotted proposals using the free-at-the-time trade simulator to make their favorite teams substantially better without accounting for the desires of the other team(s). But all things considered, BTV does a nice job of appraising major leaguers and minor leaguers with the same currency (surplus trade value, expressed in millions of dollars). The BTV model acknowledges the inexactitude of its player valuations. A lot of information about players isn't publicly available, so their site publishes a low, median and high estimate for each of them. The high value is typically 50% above the low. When a trade is reported, they'll tweet out the median estimates of the assets involved (examples here). The following list includes all of the substantial trades made by the Marlins during the past calendar year, meaning those that sent players in both directions as well as the Josh Bell partial salary dump. In a few cases (denoted by ???), traded minor leaguers were not previously in BTV's system because they were unranked by public prospect evaluators. Let's count them as $0.5 million apiece. 2024 Marlins trade activity summary -February 11 (MIA/MIN)—Marlins acquired Nick Gordon ($0.2M surplus trade value) for Steven Okert ($3.5M) -March 27 (MIA/NYY/TB)—Marlins acquired Shane Sasaki ($1.3M) and John Cruz ($1.9M) for Jon Berti ($4.7M) -April 6 (MIA/HOU)—Marlins acquired Valente Bellozo (???) and cash considerations for Jacob Amaya ($2.6M) -May 4 (MIA/SD)—Marlins acquired Dillon Head ($8.9M), Jakob Marsee ($5.7M), Nathan Martorella ($4.2M) and Woo-Suk Go ($0.7M) for Luis Arraez ($5.3M) and cash (approx. $7.9M) -July 25 (MIA/AZ)—Marlins acquired Deyvison De Los Santos ($8.0M) and Andrew Pintar ($2.5M) for A.J. Puk ($8.2M) -July 27 (MIA/NYY)—Marlins acquired Agustín Ramírez ($11.1M), Jared Serna ($5.6M) and Abrahan Ramírez (???) for Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($33.6M) -July 30 (MIA/BAL)—Marlins acquired Connor Norby ($10.1M) and Kyle Stowers ($0.1M) for Trevor Rogers ($18.0M) -July 30 (MIA/AZ)—Marlins acquired cash considerations for Josh Bell (-$4.7M) and cash (approx. $3.6M) -July 30 (MIA/SEA)—Marlins acquired Will Schomberg (???) for JT Chargois (-$0.4M) -July 30 (MIA/SD)—Marlins acquired Robby Snelling ($10.6M), Adam Mazur ($8.0M), Graham Pauley ($6.0M) and Jay Beshears ($1.1M) for Tanner Scott ($5.5M) and Bryan Hoeing ($0.1M) -July 30 (MIA/PIT)—Marlins acquired Garret Forrester ($1.1M) and Jun-Seok Shim ($0.8M) for Bryan De La Cruz ($3.2M) -July 30 (MIA/NYM)—Marlins acquired Wilfredo Lara ($0.5M) for Huascar Brazoban ($8.3M) -December 11 (MIA/TEX)—Marlins acquired Echedry Vargas ($7.3M), Max Acosta ($2.4M) and Brayan Mendoza ($0.7M) for Jake Burger ($11.0M) -December 22 (MIA/PHI)—Marlins acquired Starlyn Caba ($22.2M) and Emaarion Boyd ($0.9M) for Jesús Luzardo ($21.9M) and Paul McIntosh ($0.8M) -December 29 (MIA/CHC)—Marlins acquired Matt Mervis ($0.4M) and cash considerations for Vidal Bruján ($0.0M) Some of the Marlins' trades were "rejected" by the BTV model at the time—they got too much in return for Scott/Hoeing and not enough for Chisholm or Rogers. Overall, a total of $132.3 million in surplus value went out and $123.8 million came in. You could argue that the Marlins made up for that $8.5 million gap with waiver wire acquisitions. While many of those claims amounted to nothing, Otto Lopez and Declan Cronin currently hold a combined $15.1 million in surplus value after being designated for assignment less than a year ago. There's also Jonah Bride ($1.6M), who was acquired for cash considerations. The vast majority of MLB veterans traded away by the Fish were under club control beyond 2024. A handful of them have since been released anyway due to downturns in their production combined with rising salaries. At least they got something in return for Berti, Chargois, De La Cruz, etc. before it was too late. As he adds negotiating experience, perhaps Bendix will "fleece" his peers more frequently with the tone and timing of his moves, but ultimately, the key to sustainable winning is player development. Player values change based on projected performance in relation to contracts and years of control. If the Marlins provide their guys with the right coaching guidance and analytical feedback, they'll turn out better than the rest of the industry anticipated.- 11 comments
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- jon berti
- luis arraez
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Signed via international free agency in 2025 ($3.7 million bonus) April 2025 update: Salas is a lean, 6'2" switch-hitter who has excellent plate discipline and the ability to play two premium positions. He has been used most frequently in center field during the first month of his minor league career. Salas' two older brothers, José and Ethan, currently play in the minor leagues and signed their own multi-million dollar deals in 2019 and 2023, respectively. The 17-year-old Salas is the youngest player competing at the Low-A level. FOF Top 30 history January 2025: #2 March 2025: #4 May 2025: #4 June 2025: #3 August 2025: #5 September 2025: #5
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Acquired via trade from the Phillies in December 2024 December 2024 update: Boyd made a good impression in his first full pro season, but a promotion to High-A in 2024 was met with a decrease in contact and an increase in whiffs. Against better stuff, particularly breaking stuff out of the zone, Boyd struggled. His lack of loft also persisted as he posted a 52% ground ball rate. Despite being on base much less, Boyd’s speed persisted as he stole another 27 bases. Boyd's defense was still solid as well as he showed the ability to cover all necessary ground and then some in center field, where he saw more time compared to 2023.
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Acquired via trade from the Phillies in December 2024 January 2026 update: The headliner coming to Miami in the Jesús Luzardo trade, Caba received a $3 million signing bonus as an international amateur free agent. He is a disciplined hitter from both sides of the plate, but his right-handed swing produces much more impact. He has tallied at least as many walks as strikeouts during each of his first three professional seasons. Defensively, Caba is already nearing MLB readiness. He shows extremely intuitive reads off the bat, goes to both sides of the field, has lightning-quick hands and exceptional athleticism overall. That raises his floor considerably. Caba was the youngest Marlins prospect who participated in the Arizona Fall League this year. Injury history Left thumb sprain in 2025 Professional awards/accolades/milestones 2025 Fall Stars Game selection 2026 Spring Breakout participant FOF Top 30 history March 2025: #2 May 2025: #5 June 2025: #4 August 2025: #8 September 2025: #7 October 2025: #9 January 2026: #8
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Marlins sign Eric Wagaman to big league deal, DFA Vidal Bruján
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Welcome to the Miami Marlins, Eric Wagaman. The 27-year-old former Los Angeles Angel is Miami's first major league free agent signing of the offseason, receiving a one-year split contract as announced by the club on Friday afternoon. Utility man Vidal Bruján was designated for assignment in a corresponding move. The AP reports that Wagaman gets a $770,000 salary if he sticks in the major leagues, slightly above the $760,000 MLB minimum. He'll earn a pro-rated $200,000 salary for any time spent in the minors. He has all three of his minor league options remaining. Wagaman entered the pros in 2017 as a 13th-round draft pick and stayed with the New York Yankees organization through the 2023 season, never topping 88 games played in a single season. The Angels picked him in the minor league phase of last winter's Rule 5 Draft. With health and opportunity on his side, he hit well against Double-A and Triple-A competition (.274/.339/.469, 129 wRC+, 17 HR and 10 SB in 121 G). Wagaman made his MLB debut on September 10 and served as the Angels' everyday third baseman during the final few weeks of the 2024 season (.250/.270/.403, 86 wRC+, 2 HR and 0 SB in 18 G). The Angels non-tendered Wagaman in November and he elected free agency. Wagaman crushed left-handed pitching prior to his call-up, slashing .365/.421/.615 in 114 plate appearances with the platoon advantage. That's probably what the Marlins liked most about him—their offense collectively had a 75 wRC+ versus lefties last season, ahead of only the Chicago White Sox. ujwp7m.mp4 Defensively, Wagaman rarely played anywhere but first base while in the Yankees system. That changed in 2024. From the start of the season through mid-June, he played a combination of first, left field and right field. The hot corner became his primary position during the second half. If Jonah Bride (1B) and Connor Norby (3B) continue to get everyday reps entering 2025 (like they did to close out 2024), Wagaman figures to see most of his action at left, right and DH. If Wagaman works out, he still has all of his club control ahead of him (at least three years away from arbitration eligibility and at least six years away from free agency). As for Bruján, his lone Marlins season (.222/.303/.319, 73 wRC+, 2 HR and 5 SB in 102 G) was the finest of his major league career, but that's not saying much. He made very poor quality of contact and lacked the athleticism or intangibles to compensate for that. His best asset was his versatility, making appearances at every position on the diamond except for catcher. Despite his impressive prospect pedigree, the Dominican switch-hitter is at best a replacement-level player. Prospect Javier Sanoja and minor league signing Ronny Simon are candidates to occupy Bruján's role in 2025. Miami's 40-man roster remains full. -
Originally published on November 21, this article has been updated following a report from The Athletic that the Miami Marlins are "expected to be among the highest revenue-sharing recipients next year," pressuring them to substantially increase payroll or else risk a grievance from the Major League Baseball Players Association. With Jesús Luzardo off the books for 2025, the Marlins are projected for one of Major League Baseball's lowest payrolls. Even by their usually frugal standards, it's an ugly look. For luxury tax calculation purposes, which includes player benefits and other miscellaneous expenses, Roster Resource has them just shy of $83 million. While it's obvious that the Marlins will not be ready to contend for the postseason, there are potential transactions to be made that would continue to bolster their farm system. What if that payroll flexibility was used to facilitate salary dumps? The Marlins could offer to take on an underperforming veteran player who's nearing the end of their contract, accepting the responsibility for most/all of their remaining salary. To balance out the trade, the other team would be expected to include one or more prospects. It helps the other team reallocate funds towards free agents who can actually help them win games, while giving Miami more candidates to develop into long-term contributors. The table below was featured in a recent report from The Athletic's Evan Drellich about the future of MLB's television rights. Many teams have had to accept a reduction in rights fees while transitioning away from the traditional regional sports network model or renegotiating with their RSN partner. The Marlins are among the few who are getting "effectively the same" revenue that they originally forecasted, and they ought to leverage that to expedite their rebuild. Here are four players around the league making way more money than they're worth who I could see being bundled with prospects on their way out the door. Christian Vázquez (Minnesota Twins) 0.8 fWAR in 2024 Owed $10M in 2025 This one was included in my Marlins offseason blueprint. The Twins have a top-heavy roster with Carlos Correa, Pablo López and Byron Buxton accounting for a massive percentage of their total payroll. With that trio being essential to their competitive chances, they'll need to shed money elsewhere to re-emerge with a better overall roster come Opening Day. The 34-year-old Vázquez is a two-time World Series champion who still provides good defense, but his bat has declined to the point where he's best suited for a backup role. He could be a valuable mentor to Marlins catching prospects Agustín Ramírez and Joe Mack. Steven Matz (St. Louis Cardinals) 0.1 fWAR in 2024 Owed $12.5M in 2025 cd2d11a2-3c79bb5e-ab144d72-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 The Cardinals have been particularly forthcoming about their plans to cut payroll next season. Veteran right-handers Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas might be on the move, but I can't imagine Bruce Sherman taking on that much money. In addition to being oft-injured during his Cardinals tenure, Matz has been humbled with multiple demotions to the bullpen. Perhaps the Marlins pitching staff is depleted by spring training injuries for the second straight year and it creates a starting rotation void for him to fill. Otherwise, he profiles as a low-leverage reliever. Kenta Maeda (Detroit Tigers) 0.0 fWAR in 2024 Owed $10M in 2025 The elephant on the Tigers' books is Javier Báez. He is completely immovable with three years still left on his deal. Maeda is an older, right-handed version of Matz who could conceivably have some value to the 2025 Marlins because of his versatility and reliable strike-throwing. Myles Straw (Cleveland Guardians) 0.0 fWAR in 2024 Owed $6.4M in 2025 and $7.4M in 2026 Here is Straw's top highlight with the Guardians from the past year: d11ed25d-ad122de9-0a44b8c0-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 That's from February 26. Yes, very early in spring training. Straw was outrighted to the minors at the end of spring camp and spent all but one week of the 2024 season playing in Triple-A. Clearly, he is not in Cleveland's plans moving forward. The Guardians surprisingly won the AL Central title despite paying Straw to do nothing. To repeat as champs of a deep division, they'll have to be more efficient. Straw might not have a role to fill with the Fish, either. He's a prototypical defensive replacement/pinch-runner. Finding room for the 30-year-old on their active roster will depend on how they align the rest of the outfield. Because of that uncertainty and the total guaranteed dollars owed to him, this trade should bring back more valuable prospect(s) than the others.
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Today's news roundup also includes our annual attempt to predict Marlins minor league call-ups. Last year, our partners at HOMAGE revived the iconic teal Florida Marlins Starter jacket. For those who weren't able to nab one previously, they're back in stock with a higher-quality fabric for a very limited time! Get yours here (Fish On First receives a commission for products purchased through that link). Marlins Opening Day is 36 days away. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Per Clayton McCullough, Jesús Sánchez will receive some reps in center field during spring training. It's not expected to be his primary position like it was back in 2022, but "we think he’s more than athletic enough," McCullough says. "To us, there’s no downside to do this in spring training.” In 78 games as a CF in '22, Sánchez posted plus-two defensive runs saved and minus-two outs above average. Personally, I'm pessimistic about how he'd perform there. 🔷 Two more Marlins minor leaguers were released over the weekend: RHP Collin Lowe and OF Antony Peguero. A former undrafted free agent, Lowe logged 192 innings over the last three seasons with the vast majority of that work coming with Low-A Jupiter. He consistently posted encouraging low walk rates and high groundball rates, but those have to be taken with a grain of salt considering the much younger competition he was facing (he's entering his age-26 season). Peguero, on the other hand, is only 19 and three years removed from receiving a $575,000 signing bonus from the Marlins. Overall, he slashed .251/.329/.355 (88 wRC+) with six home runs and 15 stolen bases in 104 rookie ball games. Left field had become his primary position since moving stateside. I wonder whether Peguero would have had a longer leash if the executives responsible for signing him were still with the organization. 🔷 I hosted and participated in our annual Marlins Call-Up Contest, selecting Agustín Ramírez with my first pick. I'll try my best to post new Offishial Show episodes every Tuesday moving forward (some with guest interviews, others with my solo analysis). 🔷 New Top 100 lists from Eric Longenhagen and Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs both have Ramírez as the top prospect in the Marlins organization, ranking him 43rd and 61st, respectively. Joe Mack and Noble Meyer also cracked both lists. Relative to the rest of the industry, they're low on Thomas White. 🔷 Aram Leighton of Just Baseball released his deep dive on the Marlins farms system. The analysis on Max Acosta's 2024 midseason swing adjustments was especially enlightening and makes it easier to grasp why the team considered him to be worthy of headlining a Jake Burger trade package. 🔷 Chris Clegg of The Dynasty Dugout likewise forecasts a breakout for Acosta and highlights Keyner Benitez as a "major helium prospect in 2025" if he can throw strikes more consistently. 🔷 As of this writing, 70% of voters in Fish Army's poll said that they preferred Jeffrey Loria as the Marlins owner over Bruce Sherman. I recently wrote about how Sherman's spending has been inadequate despite his insistence otherwise. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Diamondbacks extended Geraldo Perdomo (4-YR/$45M). Old friend Yuli Gurriel secured a minor league deal from the Padres. At age 40, he was the oldest position player to appear in the majors last season. The second-oldest position player, Justin Turner, has signed with the Cubs (1-YR/$6M). A high-grade right lat strain is expected to sideline Mets starter Frankie Montas until May, if not longer. 🔷 Happy birthday to Kelly Saco, the Marlins Radio Network analyst and FanDuel Sports Network Florida in-game reporter. Marlins podcast episodes View full article
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Offishial News: Jesús Luzardo leaves Miami, stays in NL East
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
I've decided to temporarily make Offishial News a weekly series that runs every Monday from now through the start of spring training (when there will once again be articles every single weekday). And what a day to run a new edition in the aftermath of Sunday's four-player trade that sent Jesús Luzardo to the Phillies. 🔷 Since last spring training, a Luzardo trade has just been a matter of "when" rather than "if." The Marlins never seriously engaged in contract extension talks with the talented left-hander despite coming off a great 2023 season, and they were reportedly intent on flipping him for prospects prior to the 2024 trade deadline had he not suffered a back injury. Despite not having appeared in a game since June 16, the Cubs made an aggressive push for Luzardo earlier this month. The Phillies swooped in after that fell through. 🔷 It's the first Marlins/Phillies swap since the J.T. Realmuto blockbuster nearly six years earlier. At least for one season, Luzardo and Realmuto will get to be battery mates. 🔷 The Fish also parted with C/OF Paul McIntosh in the trade. You may recall that McIntosh mashed his way onto the back end of the FOF Top 30 list in the not-too-distant past. However, the Marlins have made it clear how they feel about him, acquiring Agustín Ramírez from the Yankees, selecting Liam Hicks in the Rule 5 Draft and even allowing Jhonny Pereda to cling onto their 40-man roster. Already 27 years old, McIntosh didn't have path to the majors with them in 2025. Wishing all the best to P-Mac. 🔷 The headliner in the Luzardo/McIntosh package is INF Starlyn Caba, who immediately becomes Miami's top position player prospect. Having just turned 19 years old, Caba is a plus runner and potentially elite defender at shortstop. Although he barely hit his own weight for Low-A Clearwater in 2024, he drew more walks than strikeouts. Expect Caba to spend the majority of next season repeating Low-A. 🔷 The Marlins are also buying low on OF Emaarion Boyd. The 21-year-old Mississippian is another speedster who had a .239/.316/.330 slash line (90 wRC+) at High-A. 🔷 Barring further offseason moves, the Marlins should have an intriguing competition for the final spot in their starting rotation, with Sandy Alcantara, Ryan Weathers, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera poised to take the other spots (health permitting). 🔷 Listen here to the instant reaction to the trade, featuring myself and several FOF staffers. 🔷 Peter Bendix said on Sunday that the 2025 Marlins major league coaching staff isn't quite ready to be announced, but we're seemingly nearing the finish line. Alon Leichman will be Miami's assistant pitching coach and assistant pitching director. 🔷 The Savannah Bananas return to loanDepot park from March 1-2 and have already announced that each of their two events have sold out (74,000 combined tickets). It could be a very, very long time before consecutive Marlins home games draw that kind of crowd. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, it was an extremely busy weekend. The Mets re-signed Sean Manaea (3-YR/$75M). The Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt (1-YR/$12.5M). Rangers and Joc Pedersen have reached an agreement (contract terms not yet known). In what amounts to a corresponding move, Texas dealt Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals in exchange for Robert Garcia. As a result, old friend Jake Burger is poised to play a lot of first base in 2025. The Guardians traded Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks for Slade Cecconi and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick, then filled their own 1B void by reuniting with Carlos Santana (1-YR/$12M). Wil Myers announced his retirement. One of the best players in baseball history, Rickey Henderson, died at the age of 65. Marlins podcast episodes -
Top hitting, baserunning and defensive plays from shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba during his time with Low-A Clearwater. The Miami Marlins acquired Caba from the Philadelphia Phillies in the Jesús Luzardo trade. View full video
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Top hitting, baserunning and defensive plays from shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba during his time with Low-A Clearwater. The Miami Marlins acquired Caba from the Philadelphia Phillies in the Jesús Luzardo trade.

