Ely Sussman

One of the very few positive takeaways from the dismantling of the Miami Marlins in Atlanta was that Xavier Edwards (10-23 with 4 SB during the series) continues to be perfectly suited for the leadoff spot. That's been the case for most of the season at this point, ever since he returned from the injured list in late May and moved from shortstop to second base. He now finds himself exactly where many folks anticipated he'd be entering 2025: in the mix for the National League batting title. Entering Monday, you need five decimal places to split hairs between the batting averages of Edwards (.30528) and future Hall of Famer Freddie Freeman (.30534). Freeman leads all NL qualifiers in that category. Fellow Los Angeles Dodger Will Smith (.310) is only a few plate appearances shy of qualification. Considering Smith's unremarkable track record (career .258 BA prior to this season) and the uncertainty about him reaching the magic threshold of 502 PA, Freeman is the more serious threat to Edwards. Of course, it would be naive to count out the Senior Circuit's two-time defending batting title winner, Luis Arraez (.295). His San Diego Padres teammate, Manny Machado (.297), is wedged between Edwards and Arraez. Simply replicating what he had been doing in 2024 wasn't going to be enough for Edwards to produce like this in his first full Marlins season. According to Baseball Savant, the speedy switch-hitter was among the league's luckiest players in terms of the 76-point discrepancy between his actual and expected batting average. This year, he has trimmed his whiff rate against all pitch groups—fastball, breaking ball and offspeed—while putting balls in the air more often. I'm not quite ready to declare Edwards the favorite for the 2025 title, but he should remain in contention deep into September. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 2-1. The Jumbo Shrimp (71-42) continue to own the best record in Triple-A this season. Double-A Pensacola lost, 3-2. Starting on his birthday, Jacob Miller (4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 4 K, 82 pitches/46 strikes) had his best outing since mid-June. High-A Beloit won, 6-2. Every Sky Carp position player had at least one hit. Marlins top draft pick Aiva Arquette has begun his professional baseball career on a five-game hitting streak, though with an underwhelming .227/.292/.273 slash line. Low-A Jupiter lost, 12-5. Rough day at the office for Dameivi Tineo (2.1 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 65 pitches/40 strikes). PJ Morlando was ejected for arguing balls and strikes. Andrew Salas became the youngest player in Marlins minor league history to steal 30 bases in a season. Our final 2025 in-season update of the Fish On First Top 30 list is now live. Unsurprisingly, Jakob Marsee was the biggest riser from the previous update in June, while Jared Serna, Dax Fulton, Carter Johnson and Victor Mesa Jr. (who's no longer ranked at all) fell significantly. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 We just surpassed 3,000 subscribers on YouTube! Thanks so much to those of you who have contributed to our channel's growth. Subscribing is the easiest way to interact with the Fish On First panelists during our livestreams. 🔷 YouTuber "And That's Baseball" detailed the Marlins' turnaround during Peter Bendix's tenure as president of baseball operations. 🔷 Happy 17th birthday to Kevin Defrank. The Dominican right-hander ranks sixth on the FOF Top 30. Defrank has a triple-digit fastball and the potential for a plus changeup. Through nine starts in the DSL, he's posted a 2.89 ERA and 4.27 FIP in 28 innings pitched with an extreme 59.7% ground ball rate. 🔷 It's already linked at the top of the page, but I wanted to give a more explicit shoutout to @ForeverMarlins regarding this blog post on the Braves series. As a reminder, anybody who registers for an FOF account can set up their own blog! 🔷 The Prediction Time leaderboard has been updated through the first 38 series. Become a SuperSub and we'll keep track of your predictions all season long! 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers stormed back from a 5-0 deficit to walk off against the New York Mets. The Brewers have now won nine straight games, while the Mets have dropped seven in a row. The Colorado Rockies also endured a winless week, allowing nearly 12 runs per game. Jason Alexander, who flummoxed the Marlins in his previous start, was even better against the New York Yankees, carrying a no-hitter through 5 ⅓ innings. Jose Altuve joined José Ramírez as the only active MLB players with at least 250 home runs and 250 stolen bases in their careers. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Found myself agreeing with every bit of this. Appropriately critical yet completely level-headed. Thanks a lot for posting!

An excerpt from my post here, in case you haven't gotten to it: "Snelling does not have any professional experience pitching on four days' rest. That box almost always gets checked before a prospect is plugged into a regular MLB rotation spot, so if his next outing comes on Tuesday, we're officially on call-up watch."

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the fifth and final game of Miami's road series against the Atlanta Braves. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) RF Heriberto. Hernández DH Kyle Stowers (L) SS Otto Lopez LF Dane Myers 1B Eric Wagaman CF Derek Hill C Liam Hicks (L) 3B Javier Sanoja P Cal Quantrill Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Entering this week, the National League Manager of the Year hype had begun to build around Clayton McCullough. The Miami Marlins have lost five of their seven games since then, with the latest double debacle underscoring why McCullough wasn't a true contender for that award in the first place. The Marlins were defeated twice by a non-competitive Atlanta Braves club on Saturday, in large part because they didn't fully utilize the talent on their roster in late-and-close situations. Game 1 (MIA 1, ATL 7) Hurston Waldrep pitched extremely well for the Braves in his previous outing at the inaugural Speedway Classic. This start was more of the same (6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 89 pitches/61 strikes). Waldrep kept the Marlins off balance with his six-pitch mix and his splitter was especially sharp. Only a handful of balls even escaped the infield against the rookie right-hander and Jurickson Profar bailed him out of his biggest mistake. Agustín Ramírez crushed a fly ball to left field that seemed destined to be a solo home run, but Profar scaled the wall with perfect timing to make the catch. zxn4wh_1.mp4 Serving as the Marlins' 27th man for this doubleheader, Ryan Gusto looked solid in his debut with the club (6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 98 pitches/67 strikes). Gusto's four-seam fastball was his best swing-and-miss pitch. He allowed only five total hard-hit balls, as defined by Baseball Savant. The Braves' hottest bat entering this series, Michael Harris II continues to turn his season around. His double off of Gusto in the bottom of the second inning ignited a two-run rally. But don't let the lopsided final score fool you: the Marlins were very much alive deep into the game. Trailing 3-1 in the top of the seventh inning, the potential tying runs were on first and second with nobody out. Dane Myers has slumped more severely lately than any other Marlins hitter, particularly versus right-handed pitching, yet Clayton McCullough stuck with him against Pierce Johnson. Myers grounded into a deflating double play. While it's true that McCullough's only pinch-hitting options were also righties, letting Myers take that plate appearance and swing away in that scenario (as opposed to attempting a sacrifice bunt) was a blatant mistake. The Marlins failed to score in the inning. The red-hot Harris then put the game out of reach. In relief of Gusto, George Soriano was inexplicably called upon to keep the deficit manageable, and he predictably stumbled. Harris was gifted a center-cut 0-2 fastball and drilled a three-run homer that made it 7-1 Atlanta. Soriano has surrendered seven long balls in 21 ⅓ innings pitched for the Fish in 2025. Signed by Miami a decade ago as an international free agent, it's getting very difficult to imagine his tenure lasting beyond this year. Newly promoted from Jacksonville—filling in for Anthony Bender, who's been placed on the paternity list—righty Tyler Zuber made quick work of the Braves in the bottom of the eighth. Cool milestone: first base umpire Jen Pawol became the first woman to ump an MLB regular season game. Here is a compilation of the plays she was responsible for calling. Game 2 (MIA 6, ATL 8) I was in disbelief watching the nightcap. Somehow, the game was scoreless through the first three innings despite extremely poor pitch execution from both Sandy Alcantara and Erick Fedde. They plainly "didn't have it." Well, two innings later, there were nine runs on the board, the majority of those scored by the team that has nothing left to play for. The Marlins seized a 4-0 advantage in the top of the fourth inning. Marcell Ozuna answered back with a majestic solo shot. Alcantara's lack of command was reminiscent of his rusty April/May self (he walked old friend Vidal Bruján twice). It took a fortuitous ground ball double play for him to escape the frame without yielding more damage. Even with Bender unavailable, McCullough had four relatively trustworthy relievers—Ronny Henriquez, Tyler Phillips, Lake Bachar and Calvin Faucher—to navigate the rest of the game. It was irrational to expect Alcantara to suddenly "settle in" given the evidence in front of us. Up 4-1, Alcantara led off the fifth inning by striking out light-hitting No. 9 hitter Nick Allen. Once the lineup flipped over, though, things collapsed in a hurry, and McCullough was too complacent. Jurickson Profar single. Matt Olson walk. Drake Baldwin RBI single. Ozuna go-ahead, three-run homer. 0ad0eee5-343975fb-325f8d59-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Alcantara, to his credit, stopped the bleeding and kept the game at 5-4. Facing a Braves team that has repeatedly choked under similar circumstances this season, the door was still open to salvage a doubleheader split, even after the Marlins went down quietly in the top of the sixth. First man out of the 'pen to relieve Sandy? Not Henriquez...nor Phillips...nor Bachar...nor Faucher. Valente Bellozo, huh? McCullough got too cute, thinking that practically any right-hander would be able to put up a zero against the soft bottom of the Braves order. Instead, both Bruján and Luke Williams reached base safely, Allen bunted them over, and Olson and Baldwin delivered the all-important insurance runs to make it 8-4. The Fish did indeed keep fighting, but it was too little, too late. Another awesome Jakob Marsee game (2-2, RBI, 2 BB, 3 SB) went to waste. The Marlins are the first road team since the New York Mets (June 16-18) to lose a series at Truist Park. It's entirely possible that the Marlins would've gone winless on Saturday even with a pinch-hitter for Myers, a shorter leash on Alcantara and more reliable arms used in place of Soriano and Bellozo. All McCullough can do is put his players in position to be successful. He disappointed in that regard this time. The Marlins head into Sunday's series finale trailing the Mets by six games for the final NL wild-card spot. Cal Quantrill looks to shake off his awful performance from earlier in the week (4.1 IP, 7 ER vs. HOU). Left-hander Joey Wentz starts for the Braves. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. View full article

During the first game of Saturday's Marlins-Braves doubleheader, Jen Pawol became the first woman to umpire a Major League Baseball regular season game. View full video

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. It's a day-night doubleheader! These notes apply to the third and fourth games of Miami's road series against the Atlanta Braves. Game 1 Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) RF Kyle Stowers (L) DH Agustín Ramírez C Liam Hicks (L) CF Jakob Marsee (L) LF Dane Myers 1B Troy Johnston (L) SS Javier Sanoja 3B Graham Pauley (L) P Ryan Gusto Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Accompanied by his family and many of his former Marlins teammates, Luis Castillo returned to loanDepot park on Sunday to take his rightful place in the Marlins Legends Hall of Fame. Castillo's plaque reads: "Luis Antonio Castillo played for the Marlins from 1996 to 2005 and was an integral part of the 2003 World Series-winning team. Castillo is one of two players, along with Jeff Conine, to have played with the Marlins in both of their World Series-winning campaigns, although he did not appear in the 1997 postseason. A three-time National League All-Star and three-time Gold Glove recipient (2003-05), the switch-hitting infielder also led the NL in stolen bases twice (2000 and 2002). The San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, native played 10 seasons with the Marlins, and upon his induction, he ranked as the franchise leader in hits (1,273), at-bats (4,347), plate appearances (4,966), games played (1,128), singles (1,081), triples (42), walks (533), and stolen bases (281)." Castillo is part of the Hall of Fame's inaugural class of 2025. Jeff Conine, Jim Leyland and Jack McKeon were inducted earlier this season. View full rumor

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the second game of Miami's road series against the Atlanta Braves. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) RF Kyle Stowers (L) C Agustín Ramírez DH Heriberto Hernandez SS Otto Lopez CF Jakob Marsee (L) 1B Troy Johnston (L) LF Dane Myers 3B Graham Pauley (L) P Edward Cabrera Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Not necessarily today, but soon, I agree. Time to try somebody other than Simpson. His breaking ball isn't nearly as consistent as it needs to be for him to be effective.

The Major League Baseball season is preposterously long. Nearly halfway through the 2025 campaign, it was not unreasonable to argue that the Dane Myers was the Miami Marlins' best all-around position player. The 29-year-old's hard work was finally paying off. The Marlins were giving Myers an opportunity to establish himself as an everyday big leaguer. June 16 was his 13th consecutive game in the starting lineup, with all but one of those appearances coming in center field. Most importantly, he was raking. Through June 16, Myers boasted a .333/.381/.481 slash line with a 142 wRC+ (42% better than league average). A right-handed batter who previously had awful production in limited opportunities against right-handed pitching, he was doing all he could to shed the "platoon guy" label. Since then, Myers has been the worst hitter in the majors (among those with at least 100 plate appearances during that span). His playing time has gradually dried up, and his only reps since the trade deadline have come in the corner outfield spots now that Jakob Marsee has taken over in CF. That slide down the defensive spectrum puts even more pressure on Myers to contribute at the plate. Less than two months ago, Myers and Kyle Stowers were seemingly in the same tier. Now, it's far more fitting to group Myers and Derek Hill together. Yikes. What the hell happened? All of the stats used below were updated entering Sunday's game. I don't like picking arbitrary endpoints to manufacture player hot streaks and slumps. In Myers' case, though, June 16 is significant. He took his 139th plate appearance of the season on that date and has taken 139 more since then, so the before/after sample sizes are identical. Also, there was an incident on June 16: Myers was hit on the left elbow by a Mick Abel fastball. He initially stayed in the game to run the bases, but was removed the next inning and sat out the following day before returning to the lineup on June 18. When a player's fortunes swing this dramatically, strikeouts are usually a factor. For Myers, not really! He had a 23.0 K% during his successful stretch, which has been followed by a 24.5 K%. The MLB average this season is a 21.9 K%. Myers was the beneficiary of some conveniently placed batted balls while he was on an All-Star-caliber pace. "Great Dane" had a .419 batting average on balls in play. Nobody has maintained that over the course of a full-length MLB season in generations. Fielders are too skilled and defensive positioning is too advanced. He could have kept playing to the best of his abilities and some regression still would've been inevitable. It works both ways. "Diminished Dane" has a .183 BABIP, which is unsustainably unlucky. If there was a real possibility of him continuing to hit this poorly, the Marlins would've already optioned him to the minor leagues. That being said, players make some of their own luck by impacting balls at ideal angles. Line drives, as they're defined by Statcast, are gold, resulting in a .631 batting average. With each passing month, Myers' line drive rate has declined. Even when Myers gets the launch angle he wants, he isn't making the same quality of contact as he previously did. His average exit velocity has plummeted from 92.6 mph to 88.3 mph. To use a pair of veteran hitters as points of reference, that's approximately the difference between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jonathan India. The location of those batted balls has changed, too. Close your eyes and visualize a typical Dane Myers hit—it's a line drive to right-center field. There have been a lot fewer of those recently. Per Sports Info Solutions, he's gone from a 33.0% pull rate—very low by MLB standards—to 42.6%. These before/after pitch distribution breakdowns from Brooks Baseball are fascinating. It is almost like opponents were conspiring to get Myers off to a good start to the season, leaving 26.5% of all pitches in the middle third of the strike zone. That rate has dropped to 20.9%. A lot of the "mistakes" made early on are now winding up just below the zone. This 6-4-3 double play from Saturday's game is a microcosm of what's ailing him: QXc1clpfVjBZQUhRPT1fVTFkUVhGQUNVVkFBRHdjRFVnQUhDRkpTQUFOVUJnTUFWZ0FFQ1FBRkJ3SlVWVmRR.mp4 There isn't a smoking gun with Myers' mechanics. For the first couple weeks of 2025, he utilized a toe tap and stood at a relatively straight angle facing the pitcher. Ever since, throughout both the highs and lows, he's had a modest leg kick and more open stance. Perhaps modifying his approach will be the key to snapping out of this funk. Myers stays composed in two-strike situations, but he has been less productive than most of his Marlins teammates when operating ahead in the count or swinging at the first pitch. His overall swing rate on in-zone pitches has also dipped. Understanding what kind of pitches he can barrel up and specifically hunting them could lead to more hard contact. The question is whether there's enough time remaining in the season for Myers to assert himself in the Marlins' future plans. The front office is simultaneously evaluating Heriberto Hernández at the same position, who's been far more consistent offensively. Fast-healing Griffin Conine could give Miami another mouth to feed in the outfield during the final few weeks of September. A rejuvenated Joey Wiemer is suddenly on the radar as well. With right-handed-hitting prospects Kemp Alderman and Andrew Pintar likely to debut in 2026, other clubs may covet Myers more than the Marlins moving forward, potentially culminating in an offseason trade. View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's road series against the Atlanta Braves. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) LF Kyle Stowers (L) DH Agustín Ramírez C Liam Hicks (L) SS Otto Lopez CF Jakob Marsee (L) 1B Eric Wagaman RF Troy Johnston (L) 3B Graham Pauley (L) P Eury Pérez Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

The Atlanta Braves stink. It's been nearly a decade since the last time we were able to say that so matter-of-factly. Pretty much everything has not gone according to plan for them since Opening Day, and there has been no let up in bad news lately. The Braves and Miami Marlins last faced off from June 20-22. Since then, Atlanta owns the worst record in Major League Baseball (12-25). They face off again for five games over the next four days with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley both sidelined by injuries and the home team's "best" projected starting pitcher being...Erick Fedde? This is a must-win series against arguably the weakest opponent remaining on the Marlins' 2025 schedule. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 9-0. Recent waiver claim Joey Wiemer (3-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB, HBP) reached base safely in all five of his plate appearances in his Marlins organizational debut. Patrick Monteverde tossed five scoreless innings, helping his own cause with the outstanding defensive play embedded below. Double-A Pensacola lost, 11-5. Brutal night for Alex Williams (3.0 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 88 pitches/60 strikes). Payton Green, Colby Shade and Eric Rataczak each recorded hits in their Double-A debuts. High-A Beloit lost, 3-0. Brandon Compton drew three walks and stole a base. Low-A Jupiter lost, 8-5. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Ryan Weathers (left lat strain) threw a 20-pitch bullpen session on Wednesday. Realistically, that still leaves him at least five weeks away from returning to the majors as a starter, but manager Clayton McCullough is "hopeful" that he will indeed return before season's end. 🔷 Third base has been one of the Marlins' weakest positions in 2025. However, in 19 games since Connor Norby was placed on the injured list, the Marlins are getting great production at the hot corner. Javier Sanoja has excelled on the short side of that platoon, but it's been mostly Graham Pauley's position. He is slashing .250/.348/.450 with a 123 wRC+ during this latest stint. His defense has been nearly flawless, saving runs with his reaction time and ability to make accurate, off-balance throws across the diamond. If Pauley can keep this up, it will be fascinating to see how the Marlins utilize him once Norby gets back. 🔷 On this day nine years ago, Ichiro Suzuki recorded his 3,000th MLB hit, and on this day 15 years ago, Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramírez played vital roles in a thrilling 10-inning victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. 🔷 The Prediction Time leaderboard has been updated through the first 37 series. Not much movement since the previous update considering how confident most folks were in the Marlins to continue their streak of series victories. Become a SuperSub and we'll keep track of your predictions all season long! 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Trevor Rogers continues to be spectacular since rejoining the Baltimore Orioles starting rotation. His ERA actually went up to 1.44 despite holding the Philadelphia Phillies to one run across six innings pitched. The Milwaukee Brewers became the first MLB team to reach 70 wins this season. Chicago Cubs right-hander Andrew Kittredge threw an immaculate inning. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins and Braves begin their supersized series at Truist Park (probable starters RHP Eury Pérez and RHP Carlos Carrasco). The Marlins have a 51.4% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 7:15 p.m. ET. 🔷 This weekend, Jen Pawol will become the first woman to umpire MLB regular season games. She'll work both ends of Saturday's doubleheader, then call balls and strikes on Sunday. 🔷 Prior to the series opener, Fish On First LIVE will preview it all beginning at 6:00 p.m. ET. FOF LIVE is presented by About The Fans. Check out our new merchandise collection (coupon code fof10 for 10% off). Marlins podcast episodes View full article

To be super clear because it's an unusual situation, this is a 5-game series! Make your predictions accordingly...