Ely Sussman

With the Miami Marlins pitching staff decimated by injuries, Valente Bellozo pitched 68 ⅔ innings in the major leagues last season. Although the bottomline results were good, Bellozo's underlying performance was not, hence the chasm between his 1.6 bWAR and -0.1 fWAR. I was pretty confident that the fiery Mexican right-hander would have a reduced workload for the Marlins in 2025. Well, Bellozo is one more lengthy relief outing away from surpassing his 2024 innings total. There have been some encouraging changes in his new role, like an uptick in fastball velocity and a home run rate that's been sliced in half. His sweeper has developed into a plus pitch. However, he's still a control-over-command guy with one of MLB's lowest strikeout rates. He is a tantalizing matchup for left-handed batters and they have devoured him recently. The Marlins' game of the year, a chaotic comeback to topple the New York Yankees on August 1, was made all the more dramatic because Bellozo yielded a three-run home run to Trent Grisham on a fluttering changeup. His two appearances on the ongoing road trip have been mirror images of each other—entering the game with Miami trailing by only a run and allowing the deficit to swell. M3k0eVZfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUZKVVVGZFdVd0FBV2xBQUFnQUhCd2RXQUFBQVVWRUFVd2RYQjFJRFVsVmNWZ0pW.mp4 Sandwiched between those struggles, he breezed through 3 ⅔ scoreless frames against the Houston Astros, but that was easily the lowest-leverage situation of the bunch. The Marlins' usage of Bellozo is far more problematic than Bellozo himself. Why is he repeatedly being deployed in winnable games against the opposing team's most dangerous lefties, including José Ramírez in Thursday's loss? Every 26-man spot is important, so what is Tyler Zuber still doing here over Freddy Tarnok or Josh White, who are thriving in Triple-A Jacksonville with stuff packages that theoretically should work versus LHBs? In terms of both in-game maneuvers and roster construction, the Marlins have been questionably managed during their August downturn. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 7-2. Nathan Martorella and Deyvison De Los Santos launched back-to-back home runs for the only Jumbo Shrimp offense. Double-A Pensacola lost, 9-0. High-A Beloit lost, 6-2. Brayan Mendoza's underwhelming season continues (5.0 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 83 pitches/52 strikes). Low-A Jupiter lost, 6-4. Since being acquired via trade, Esmil Valencia is slashing .419/.444/.631 with only three strikeouts in 36 plate appearances. DSL Marlins lost, 9-6. It's the first time since early July that they've suffered consecutive losses. DSL Miami won, 8-6. Kevin Defrank made his final regular season start (3.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K). Great day offensively for Alexander Requena (3-4, 2 RBI, SB). More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Myles Lewis is out as the Marlins' director of data engineering, which adds some context to this job posting that went up earlier in the week. Lewis had been part of the organization's front office since the ownership change in 2017. His tenure included four years as director of analytics. 🔷 The Marlins are 13th in midseason farm system rankings from both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Entering this season, they were ranked 21st and 16th by those outlets, respectively. 🔷 The Arizona Fall League revealed their full 2025 schedule. This year, Marlins players will be affiliated with the Mesa Solar Sox. Their season opener is October 7. 🔷 Thursday was Eric Wagaman's 28th birthday. ForeverMarlins explained what potential the Fish still see in him despite his unimpressive outcomes at the plate. 🔷 The Prediction Time leaderboard has been updated through the first 39 series. Become a SuperSub and we'll keep track of your predictions all season long! 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the New York Mets lost their fifth series in a row and hold just a half-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the third National League wild-card spot. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reached 20 home runs for the fifth straight season. Highly regarded Chicago Cubs outfielder Owen Caissie went 0-for-4 in his major league debut. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins enter the final leg of their three-city road trip with the series opener against the Boston Red Sox (probable starters RHP Sandy Alcantara and RHP Lucas Giolito). The Marlins have a lower all-time winning percentage against the Sox (.320) than any other MLB team. They have a 47.6% chance to win Sandy's start, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. 🔷 Prior to the series opener, Fish On First LIVE will preview it all beginning at 6:00 p.m. ET. FOF LIVE is presented by About The Fans. Check out our new merchandise collection (coupon code fof10 for 10% off). Marlins podcast episodes

The Miami Marlins quietly set an unfortunate franchise record over the weekend, and they continued to add to it on Tuesday. After the Cleveland Guardians stole two bases against them, the Marlins have now surrendered 143 total steals this season, exceeding their 2024 total of 139. They also rank dead last in the majors in caught stealing rate (11.7%). The timing and deception of a pitcher's delivery has the biggest influence on controlling the running game. Left-handers inherently have an easier time monitoring runners at first base and less than 10% of Miami's pitches this season have been thrown by lefties. Worth noting, though, Marlins opponents have been successful on 20 consecutive stolen base attempts, a streak that coincides almost perfectly with veteran catcher Nick Fortes being traded away. This shouldn't be as much of a problem in 2026 and beyond assuming southpaws Ryan Weathers and Robby Snelling are starting rotation staples and highly regarded prospect Joe Mack takes over as the club's primary backstop. In the meantime, the Marlins are on pace to allow 195 steals by season's end. That would be the most by any MLB team since the 2001 Boston Red Sox (223 SB). Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 8-4. William Kempner was thrown into the fire in his Jumbo Shrimp debut, entering with the bases loaded in a tie game in extra innings. He allowed a grand slam. Double-A Pensacola lost, 13-2. High-A Beloit lost, 4-2. Good night for Karson Milbrandt (5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 6 K, 86 pitches/51 pitches), but the Sky Carp bullpen struggled. Aiva Arquette went 1-for-1 with two walks and a sacrifice fly. Low-A Jupiter won, 6-1. Joey Volini threw a scoreless inning of relief in his professional debut. Andrew Salas has homered in three of his last 13 games after going yard zero times in his first 72 games. DSL Marlins lost, 11-7. DSL Miami won, 10-3. Sandy Presbot became the fourth player on the team to reach 25 stolen bases this season. This was only the team's 51st game! More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Miami's newest international amateur free agent signing is Dominican right-hander Ricardo Arredondo. The 18-year-old is listed at 6'0", 163. The latest minor leaguers to be released are right-hander Anderson Pilar and left-hander Kevin Vaupel. 🔷 Released by the Fish earlier this month, Matt Mervis and Rob Brantly signed minor league deals with the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees, respectively. 🔷 There is serious doubt about Jesús Tinoco (right forearm strain) returning this season as his body isn't responding well to throwing sessions. He's undergoing further evaluation. Tinoco was terrific after being claimed by the Marlins off waivers last summer (2.03 ERA, 2.08 FIP, .141 BAA, 3 SV in 26.2 IP). However, that didn't carry over into 2025, even before landing on the injured list in June. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, despite Shohei Ohtani blasting his National League-leading 43rd home run, the San Diego Padres have pulled even with the Los Angeles Dodgers atop the NL West standings. Pete Alonso surpassed Darryl Strawberry to become the New York Mets' all-time home run leader. The Milwaukee Brewers won their 11th consecutive game. They're on pace for 102 victories overall, which would set a new franchise record. Athletics rookie Jacob Lopez extended his scoreless streak to 24 innings. Baltimore Orioles pitchers Zach Eflin (lower back surgery) and Félix Bautista (shoulder injury) have been ruled out for the rest of the season. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins continue their three-game set against the Cleveland Guardians (probable starters RHP Eury Pérez and RHP Gavin Williams). The Guardians have won 10 of their last 12 games. The Marlins have a 42.7% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Marlins podcast episodes

Needless to say, the Miami Marlins cannot afford another week like last week, or else their already-minuscule 2025 playoff odds could flatline. Even if they respond well during the rest of this road trip, they would appreciate some outside help. Here are the results that would benefit the Marlins most during the week of August 11 with respect to contending for the third wild-card spot in the National League: Root for the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets (mid-week), then the Seattle Mariners over the Mets (weekend) Root for the Philadelphia Phillies over the Cincinnati Reds, then the Milwaukee Brewers over the Reds Root for the Colorado Rockies over the St. Louis Cardinals, then the New York Yankees over the Cardinals Root for the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants, then the Tampa Bay Rays over the Giants Root for the Texas Rangers over the Arizona Diamondbacks, then the Rockies over the Diamondbacks Down on the farm, DSL Marlins won, 8-1, and clinched the DSL Southeast division. José Paulino and Albert Polanco recorded six strikeouts apiece. They rank fourth and fifth, respectively, among all Dominican Summer League pitchers in strikeouts this season. DSL Miami won, 5-1. They're a couple victories away from clinching a postseason berth of their own (as a wild card team). Joey Wiemer was named International League Player of the Week in his very first week with the Marlins organization. Wiemer went 8-for-17 with two home runs and a 307 wRC+ to propel Triple-A Jacksonville to a six-game road sweep of the Nashville Sounds. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Anthony Bender is due back from the paternity list prior to tonight's game. George Soriano has already been optioned to Jacksonville as the corresponding roster move. 🔷 We already know that the Marlins are going to protect Joe Mack in advance of this winter's MLB Rule 5 Draft. I highlighted seven other prospects who will also be Rule 5-eligible and potentially under consideration for roster spots. 🔷 On this day in 2015, the Marlins tied a then-franchise record by scoring 10 runs in the sixth inning vs. Boston. 🔷 The Top 100 prospect lists from Baseball America and MLB Pipeline were updated. Both lists now feature four Marlins—Thomas White (BA #21/MLB #21), Aiva Arquette (BA #32/MLB #39), Joe Mack (BA #45/MLB #76) and Robby Snelling (BA #42/MLB #80). 🔷 The Marlins are accepting applications for a new position: director of baseball data. "This role will be responsible for designing and implementing scalable, high-performance data pipelines that support analytics, player evaluation, and decision-making across Baseball Operations," the position summary reads. "The ideal candidate will have deep expertise in data engineering, cloud computing, and database technologies, along with strong leadership and project management skills." 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Shane McClanahan underwent season-ending surgery for a nerve issue in his arm. Due to injuries, McClanahan has not pitched in the majors since August 2, 2023. The Texas Rangers rallied from a 6-1 deficit to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks on a Jake Burger extra-inning walk-off hit. The ageless Kenley Jansen has made 21 consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins begin a three-game set against the Cleveland Guardians (probable starters RHP Janson Junk and LHP Logan Allen). The Guardians have won nine of their last 11 games. Watch out for Kyle Manzardo in particular, who has a 1.140 OPS since the All-Star break. The Marlins have a 42.5% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. 🔷 Prior to the series opener, Fish On First LIVE will preview it all beginning at 5:30 p.m. ET. FOF LIVE is presented by About The Fans. Check out our new merchandise collection (coupon code fof10 for 10% off). Marlins podcast episodes

There won't be room for everybody, and that's the way Major League Baseball likes it. The purpose of the annual MLB Rule 5 Draft is to prevent organizations from hoarding talent in the minors. Players who are at least four seasons removed from being drafted out of college and five seasons removed from being drafted out of high school or signed internationally are eligible to be whisked away by other teams unless they are protected on the 40-man roster. At first glance, you may think that there are plenty of expendable pieces on the Miami Marlins' 40-man, removing the drama from this year's roster crunch. Keep in mind, however, that six injured players will have to be reinstated from the 60-day IL following the season. The "easy" decisions will get made then. The deadline to protect eligible prospects is in mid-November. Catcher Joe Mack (a 2021 amateur draft pick) is in a tier of his own—he is certain to receive a 40-man spot, with the only question being whether or not he'll make his Marlins debut before season's end. Let's update the progress of seven lesser-hyped prospects who could be considered for Rule 5 protection depending on how the rest of their 2025 campaign goes. Their current MiLB level is in parentheses. OF Andrew Pintar (AAA) Andrew Pintar slipped off of our Fish On First Top 30 list over the weekend. He's still an intriguing prospect who leads all Triple-A Jacksonville players this season in Sprint Speed and has been successful on 15 consecutive stolen base attempts. The former Arizona Diamondbacks farmhand—he was acquired in the 2024 A.J. Puk trade—plays a smooth center field. Since coming off the injured list at the start of August, Pintar has slashed .265/.375/.471. The main concern with Pintar is that he might not be able to hit right-handed pitching. He has posted a 32% strikeout rate against Triple-A righties this season. Significant improvement in that area moving forward may persuade the Marlins to select him. RHP Josh White (AAA) I could definitely see Josh White being a Marlins September call-up. All of the relievers covered below have practically the same earned run average, but White has been the most impressive of the bunch, with a 1.61 FIP that's even better than his ERA. In fact, it's the lowest FIP across all of Minor League Baseball among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings. It doesn't get much redder than this (courtesy of Prospect Savant): White's fastball velocity (93.6 mph) is actually a tick below the average for MLB righty relievers, but his over-the-top delivery is tough to adjust to and his slider dominates batters on either side of the plate. If White is somehow left unprotected by the Marlins, he is the likeliest player here to depart in the Rule 5. RHP William Kempner (AA) Oh look, another under-the-radar Peter Bendix transaction that's paying dividends. Earlier this year, the Marlins traded $250,000 in international bonus pool money to acquire William Kempner from the San Francisco Giants. He had been injured for practically the entire 2024 season with the exception of a couple weeks in the Arizona Fall League. Kempner has stayed healthy throughout his age-24 campaign, throwing the ball better than ever as we enter the home stretch. As of this writing, he's in the midst of 12 straight scoreless appearances with only three earned runs allowed over his last 35 ⅔ innings pitched. Nobody has homered off of him since joining the Marlins org. Unlike White, Kempner releases the ball from a very low arm slot, generating a ton of horizontal break on his sweeper running away from right-handers. He uses his mid-90s sinker to get ahead in counts against lefties by stealing inside strikes. There are some similarities to the Marlins' own Anthony Bender, though Kempner's control is well below average for the time being. LHP Dale Stanavich (AAA) After overpowering lefties a season ago, Dale Stanavich actually has reverse platoon splits in 2025. He's throwing only 52% of his pitches for strikes with Jacksonville, otherwise he might have reached the majors already given the Marlins' lack of reliable southpaws. Although a 15% walk rate is obviously a red flag, Stanavich mitigates the damage by controlling the running game. No base-stealers have been successful against him all year (and only two of them were last year). TzBaeTBfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JnY0VBQUZYQUFZQUN3Y0VBd0FIQUFjSEFBQUNWbFVBQkZNSFVsWlFCQVZXVkFCVg==.mp4 RHP Jesse Bergin (AA) Jesse Bergin was Rule 5-eligible in 2024, but there were no takers. That was understandable for a relief-only prospect with a mere three innings of experience at the High-A level. Spending the vast majority of this season in Pensacola, Bergin is reliably inducing soft contact while striking out a quarter of opposing batters. Here's a good example of how his fastball/curveball/slider arsenal works: merge-alp3qr.mp4 1B Nathan Martorella (AAA) Nathan Martorella possesses a promising combination of pull-side power and contact. It just has not been translating to much overall production since he was acquired in early 2024. In the San Diego Padres system, he had a 129 wRC+; in a near-identical sample size with the Marlins, he's down to a 95 wRC+. Additionally, it's rare for any player who is limited to first base defensively to get plucked in the major league phase of the Rule 5. For what it's worth, Martorella caught fire around this time last year with 11 homers over his final 30 games. DH Jacob Berry (AAA) Former Marlins first-rounder Jacob Berry has never come close to justifying his 2022 draft position. To his credit, this is shaping up to be his best professional season yet. If you were to generously give Berry a mulligan for the months of April and May (he is a notoriously slow starter), his slash line would be .292/.395/.458 with a 135 wRC+ and nearly as many walks as strikeouts. If he keeps that up, maybe another team rolls the dice? Berry has a willingness to play various positions. However, his glove isn't major league-caliber at any of them.