Ely Sussman

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Nearly two years removed from his Tommy John surgery, how are potential Marlins trade partners currently valuing the left-hander?There were 103 players selected ahead of Jake Eder in the 2020 MLB Draft. Within a month of his professional debut, he had emerged as one of the top 103 prospects in the entire sport. He tore apart Double-A competition with well-located mid-90s fastballs and an unhittable slider. His selection to the 2021 Futures Game was a no-brainer. Eder was ascending fast...until he got stung by the injury bug. Because of the combination of Tommy John surgery and a fractured foot, it took 22 months for Eder just to make it back to the Double-A level. Even then, he was rusty. The Vanderbilt lefty's velocity hadn't returned and neither did his command. But Eder has gradually rounded back into his old form in recent weeks. I came away encouraged by his July 15 start against Birmingham despite the five earned runs attributed to him. The following week against Rocket City, he was even sharper. Then on Saturday night in Pearl, Mississippi, Eder pitched a masterpiece: 5.2 IP, 1 H, 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 10 K, 1 HR. https://milb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-07/29/d39e49b5-f5f76638-a392145e-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4The 24-year-old's fastball velocity touched 95 miles per hour several times. Eder consistently got ahead in the count and made his opponents take defensive swings at sliders just off the plate. He struck out nearly half of the batters he faced, allowed no hard contact outside of a solo home run and even fielded his position well. However, the vast majority of Eder's heaters were in the 91-93 mph range. And here's the big caveat: he had the platoon advantage against six of the nine Mississippi Braves starters. Typically, opposing lineups only start two or three lefties against Eder. Because of these unusual circumstances, he barely had to incorporate his changeup. This was Eder's final "audition" in advance of Tuesday's MLB trade deadline. Per multiple reports, including Craig Mish of SportsGrid and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, potential Miami Marlins trade partners have been eyeing him. Eder has re-established himself as one of the best prospects in the Marlins system, but I don't think he's shown enough yet to fully restore the value he previously had. A start like Saturday's further demonstrated why Eder has a high floor. He is a nightmare matchup for same-handed batters, striking out more than 40% of them during his minor league career. He will, at the very least, retire MLB lefties with ease in a relief role. Eder's ceiling is more up for debate until his velo ticks up and/or his changeup steals strikes against righties with more regularity. Baseball Trade Values estimates that Eder carries $8.6 million in surplus value. Flipping him for most rentals on the market would be an overpay, but his value is closely aligned with controllable veterans like Gleyber Torres (New York Yankees) and Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals). That sounds about right. It'd be selling low on him. Despite the sexy results in his last start, I'm skeptical of Eder contributing to the Marlins' playoff pursuit. If the club is able to address it's short-term roster needs without dealing him, the focus should be on refining his changeup and continuing to increase his workload. Continuing to start once a week in the Southern League through summer's end and doing the same in the Arizona Fall League would give him the opportunity to surpass his pre-Tommy John innings total (71.1 IP) and enter 2024 spring training as a darkhorse rotation candidate.

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Today's Marlins news roundup also highlights a streaking team that's looking less likely to sell at the deadline.Thursday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Thursday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Avisaíl García (Jacksonville) started in right field for the third straight day. After eight total games, nothing else for him to prove on this rehab assignment. INF/OF Xavier Edwards continues to thrive, going 3-for-4 with a home run and a walk. LHP Luis Palacios had a spectacular start (7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K) and became the first Marlins minor leaguer this season to surpass 100 innings pitched.The Marlins' second deadline deal is their first big splash, acquiring David Robertson from the Mets in exchange for prospects INF Marco Vargas and C Ronald Hernández. It's a steep price to pay when combining the young talent involved with the approximately $3.6 million that Robertson is owed through season's end. However, the 38-year-old reliever is an excellent fit for the Marlins, who needed a reliable righty with swing-and-miss stuff./news/marlins-mets-trade-david-robertson-details/ Nobody thinks that the Marlins are done adding yet. All of their young pitching trade chips are still intact! Daniel De Vivo of Swimming Upstream hears that the Fish are still interested in Gleyber Torres (a 2022 deadline target) and continue to have conversations about him with the Yankees.Another interesting nugget from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic: the Marlins "made a late push" for Carlos Santana before the Pirates traded him to the Brewers. Had they won the bidding, would that mean dealing/dumping Garrett Cooper?! Hard to imagine Santana, Cooper and Yuli Gurriel co-existing on the same roster. Santana and Cooper are roughly equals at the plate in 2023 in terms of wRC+, but the former is a better fielder at first base.New international free agent signing: Samuel Carpio, a 20-year-old right-hander from the Dominican Republic. He's been assigned to DSL Miami.Elsewhere around the majors, Shohei Ohtani threw a shutout for the Angels in the first game of their doubleheader, then homered twice in the second game. The Los Angeles Times reports that Nolan Arenado is willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Dodgers and only the Dodgers. Wild scene in St. Louis where Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras was struck on the head by an Ian Happ backswing in the first inning, prompting an early exit. Miles Mikolas retaliated by intentionally throwing at Happ, so the umpires ejected him. The Cubs took advantage and won their sixth straight game, propelling them to .500 and making it increasingly unlikely that they sell at the trade deadline.Congrats to Fish On First's Kevin Barral on his victory in the "Young Experts" . Thanks to everybody who submitted audience questions. Send in more if you'd like for an opportunity to have them featured on a future show. More Fish On First LIVE is streaming tonight at 5:30 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Special guest: Sean Millerick. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! "Miguel Cabrera Weekend" has arrived. The former Marlin and future Hall of Famer is visiting LoanDepot Park for the final time as an active player. He's got a 86 wRC+ at age 40! Not coincidentally, the Marlins are hosting their annual Venezuelan heritage celebration on Saturday.The Marlins have a 56.3% chance to win their series opener against the Tigers, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:00 p.m. ET), FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Check out the debut episode of , the latest addition to our FOF podcast lineup discussing trending MLB topics that go beyond just the Marlins.Greg Cote of the Miami Herald still laments the Marlins' decision to trade away Cabrera just as he was entering his prime.On this day 15 years ago, the Marlins beat the Mets thanks to a five-run rally in the eighth inning.Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins

Well, that settles Miami's closer situation!One of Major League Baseball's most accomplished active relievers is coming to Miami. As first reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Marlins are acquiring right-hander David Robertson from the New York Mets in exchange for two young prospects, INF Marco Vargas and C Ronald Hernández. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that the Marlins are eating all of the money still owed to the pending free agent through season's end (approx. $3.7M). The deal is now official. Robertson had been the Mets' main closer this season. He has accumulated 171 saves over parts of 15 MLB seasons with a 2.84 ERA and 2.96 FIP along the way. Even at 38 years old, his 27.9% strikeout rate ranks in the 78th percentile among all pitchers—that is significantly better than any of the Marlins' other right-handed relievers. With A.J. Puk struggling throughout the month of July, Robertson figures to supplant him in the ninth-inning role. Robertson's pitch mix consists of a cutter, curveball and slider. His cutter is averaging 93.2 miles per hour in 2023, the highest velocity he's had for that pitch since 2011. And despite being only 5'11", he gets terrific extension off the mound, so his velo plays up. This week, the Marlins traded Dylan Floro to the Minnesota Twins and lost Matt Barnes to season-ending hip surgery. They had been the members of Miami's bullpen with the most extensive playoff experience. However, Robertson has gotten more October reps than both of them combined (2.78 ERA in 45.1 IP across eight different years). https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2022/2022-10/28/ea4ecb86-1bef6975-8a65877a-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4In a microscopic sample, Robertson has dominated during his previous appearances at LoanDepot Park (7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K with 4 SV). The Marlins will be the seventh MLB team that he has played for. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-03/30/d7d39e1d-a69ce207-7e222003-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Vargas ranked 15th on our latest Fish On First Top 30 list. Hernández ranked 18th. Both have excelled in the Florida Complex League this season, drawing more walks than strikeouts, knocking on the door for a promotion to full-season ball. /podcasts/marlins-top-30-prospects-update-july-2023/The Marlins had a full 40-man roster prior to this move. The club announced that Matt Barnes has been transferred to the 60-day IL to make room for Robertson. My educated guess is that Bryan Hoeing will be optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville to get Robertson onto the active roster prior to Friday's game (the Marlins haven't used Hoeing since July 19). As soon as Monday, the Marlins should be getting left-hander Andrew Nardi (triceps inflammation) back from the injured list. Huascar Brazoban and George Soriano are the most likely candidates to be optioned at that point. Although Miami's already-weak farm system is taking a hit here, there is still ample pitching to use as chips to make additional upgrades prior to Tuesday's trade deadline. This is the third time in as many years that these NL East rivals have linked up to complete a trade. In February 2021, they exchanged Jordan Yamamoto for then-prospect Federico Polanco (those players have since retired and been released, respectively). Then last November, the Marlins sent fringy big leaguers Elieser Hernández and Jeff Brigham to NY for prospects Jake Mangum (currently playing for Triple-A Jacksonville) and Franklin Sánchez (High-A Beloit). Photo courtesy of New York Mets

Today's Marlins news roundup also includes updates from several rehab assignments.Wednesday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Rehabbing with Jacksonville, Avisaíl García went 2-for-4 with a loooooong home run and an outfield assist. INF Jordan Groshans delivered the walk-off RBI single. RHP Eury Pérez (Pensacola) made his first start since being optioned earlier this month. He was limited to 45 pitches (2.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 HR). Tommy Nance and RHP Jacob Miller both began their rehab assignments with scoreless appearances during an FCL Marlins blowout win. The team's offense erupted for 15 runs despite not hitting any homers.Sandy Alcantara threw his 11th career complete game, tied for third-most in Marlins history. He earned his 38th Marlins win, matching José Fernández for ninth place on the all-time franchise list.The Marlins acquired Jorge López from the Twins in exchange for Dylan Floro. López is slightly cheaper, under club control through 2024 and earned an All-Star selection last year, but he's been struggling even more than Floro this season (5.09 ERA, 5.94 FIP, -0.24 WPA in 35.1 IP). Craig Mish of SportsGrid, who broke the news, expects the Marlins to add another right-handed reliever prior to Tuesday's trade deadline./news/marlins-twins-trade-dylan-floro-jorge-lopez/Elsewhere around the majors, the Angels traded two of their top prospects to the White Sox for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López, while the Dodgers and Guardians swapped Noah Syndergaard for Amed Rosario. Such an aggressive "buying" move makes it clear that the Angels won't be parting with Shohei Ohtani prior to the deadline. MLB owners officially extended Rob Manfred's contract. He has been the league's commissioner for the last eight-and-a-half years and this extension is poised to keep him there for another five-and-a-half. Our monthly Marlins Jeopardy trivia contest is streaming tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Thanks to everybody who submitted audience questions. Send in more if you'd like for an opportunity to have it featured on a future show. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald wonders whether Wednesday's game could be a turning point in Sandy Alcantara's season. Battery mate Jacob Stallings observed that “he was more upbeat than really I’ve ever seen him on a start day.”For comprehensive Marlins injury updates, remember to bookmark our tracker./news/tracking-miami-marlins-injury-rehab-updates/On this day 20 years ago, Juan Pierre’s walk-off RBI single completed a sweep of the Phillies.Photo courtesy of 65josecastillo/Instagram

Two teams squarely in playoff contention exchange right-handed relievers.Shortly after the conclusion of Wednesday's game, the Miami Marlins swapped veteran right-handed relievers with the Minnesota Twins, sending Dylan Floro up north in exchange for Jorge López. The trade is official (first reported by Craig Mish of SportsGrid). The Marlins had a clear need for right-handed bullpen help, but they're giving up one of their best MLB righties in the process of addressing that, and López is actually having a worse 2023 season than Floro. Floro was Miami's best setup man in April. Since then, however, he's had awful results on balls in play, making him untrustworthy in high-leverage situations. Overall, his three seasons for Miami were an unmitigated success (3.32 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 32 SV in 157.1 IP). /analysis/dylan-floro-unlucky-2023-fip-era/ The Puerto Rican López struggled for much of his major league career—toggling between starting and relieving—prior to his 2022 breakout. He was among MLB's elite bullpen arms from April-June of that season, ascending to the closer's role with the Baltimore Orioles. The O's shipped him to the Twins prior to last year's trade deadline. Similar to Floro, López was very successful earlier this year, posting a 0.00 earned run average in April. Things spiraled out of control from there, though. He allowed 15 earned runs in 15 innings from May through mid-June before being placed on the injured list to take care of his mental health. He made eight appearances between that IL stint and this transaction (8.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR). https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-04/28/0f28d914-99d07d49-6fffe59d-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Now in his age-30 season, López still has upper-90s fastball velocity and a deep pitch mix. His upside is significantly higher than Floro's. However, his strikeout rate dropped dramatically after leaving Baltimore and has not recovered. Also, after posting one of the league's highest groundball rates last year (58.0 GB%), he's fallen relatively close to the league average (47.7 GB%). Against right-handed batters, López relies heavily on his sinker and slider. Against lefties, he's been going mostly with four-seamers, curveballs and changeups. All five offerings have generated multiple strikeouts for him in 2023. Of course, it's possible that Mel Stottlemyre Jr. and the Marlins coaching staff will suggest changes to this approach given his recent struggles. No doubt an important consideration for the Marlins: López has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining (Floro was a pending free agent). Floro ($4.2M) and López ($3.53M) are making comparable salaries in 2023. With the trade deadline still six days away, the López acquisition will not preclude the Marlins from continuing to pursue relief help, Craig Mish tweets. Adding to the starting rotation and offense are also priorities. More updates to come...

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Today's Marlins news roundup also includes the unveiling of the 2024 Grapefruit League schedule.Tuesday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Rehabbing with Jacksonville, Avisaíl García went 1-for-3 with a walk and Andrew Nardi struck out two batters during an easy eight-pitch inning of relief. The Hammerheads played their first "home" game in The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. Draft picks 1B Brock Vradenburg (2-for-5) and OF Mark Coley (1-for-4, RBI, BB) made their professional debuts. It's been a struggle for RHP Hiroshi Takahashi with the DSL Marlins this season, but he finally had his first scoreless appearance (2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 K) and earned his first career win.Edward Cabrera's start came undone in the second inning because of a recurring blister issue. The Marlins desperately need him to fill out their rotation at the moment, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to project Cabrera as a starter moving forward considering how frequently blisters impact his control and availability.The Marlins took a flier on Padres LHP José Castillo, acquiring him for cash considerations and optioning him to Jacksonville. "Big Dude" (he's listed at 6'6", 252) possesses a mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider, but injuries have halted his progress for much of the last five seasons. He has a 9.82 ERA, 7.15 FIP and 2.07 WHIP for Triple-A El Paso this year (18.1 IP). Miami's 40-man roster is temporarily full, but the club can easily make room for a newcomer by transferring Matt Barnes to the 60-day injured list at any point. Barnes underwent hip surgery on Tuesday.The 2024 spring training schedule has been announced. We're less than seven months away from the Marlins' Grapefruit League opener against the Cardinals.Elsewhere around the majors, the Dodgers reunited with Kiké Hernández, sending relievers Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman to the Red Sox to complete the trade. Hernández has the lowest fWAR among MLB hitters this season (yes, even worse than Jean Segura). It wasn't pretty, but the Angels prevailed in extra innings to win for the sixth time in their last seven games.The latest episode of reacted to the Castillo trade, Marlins injury updates and the recent history of the Rays dominating the Citrus Series. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! The Marlins have a 44.4% chance to win their series finale against the Rays, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (doubleheader starting at 4:30 p.m. ET) and FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET) and High-A Beloit (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Louis Addeo-Weiss makes the case that bad luck has played a major role in Dylan Floro's disappointing 2023 campaign. Get yourself a three-pack of Marlins friendship bracelets from our partners at FOCO.Marlins Jeopardy returns on Thursday! It's a "Young Experts" special, featuring contestants who weren't even born the last time the Marlins won it all. As usual, we're including your audience questions. Please submit them here.You may have noticed a lot of announcements this season about Marlins players who are expecting new children. This past weekend, there was a group baby shower at LoanDepot Park for the wives of Luis Arraez, Matt Barnes, Jon Berti, Garrett Hampson and Tanner Scott.Photo courtesy of 65josecastillo/Instagram

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