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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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Offishial news, 8/16/23: Alfaro returns; why Arraez was overlooked
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Tuesday's Games/game-coverage/marlins-astros-8-15-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/15/c3eafc97-f97acbaa-2ae6c79c-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: C Paul McIntosh was reassigned from Jacksonville to Pensacola. The Jumbo Shrimp piled on 11 runs without him, including OF/1B Jerar Encarnación's 23rd home run of the season. The Jupiter Hammerheads rallied for six runs in the top of the ninth in their win. 1B Brock Vradenburg had the first three-hit game of his professional career, while INF Ian Lewis stuffed the box score (2-for-4, 3B, BB, 3 RBI, 2 SB). LHP Keyner Benitez (DSL Miami) threw up zeroes for the third time in his last five starts (5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K).McIntosh was reassigned because the Marlins reunited with Jorge Alfaro on a minor league deal. The 30-year-old Alfaro played with the Red Sox and Rockies earlier this season. He'll be reporting to Jacksonville shortly./news/marlins-sign-jorge-alfaro-minor-league-deal/With his 30th home run of the season on Tuesday, Jorge Soler is on pace to join Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sheffield as the only players in Marlins history to reach 40. The direction of this one was notable—it traveled closer to the right field line than any of the previous 29.NL Wild Card race updates: the Diamondbacks, Giants and Padres won, while the Cubs, Phillies and Reds lost. The Marlins hold the third Wild Card spot by one game.Elsewhere around the majors, Rays ace Shane McClanahan is scheduled to undergo his second Tommy John surgery, which will likely sideline him through the end of the 2024 season. On the milder side, Ozzie Albies (left hamstring strain) has been placed on the 10-day injured list. Albies had played in each of the Braves' first 117 games. Miguel Cabrera hit his 509th career home run.The Marlins have a 49.0% chance to win their series finale against the Astros, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:30 p.m. ET) and Low-A Jupiter (2:10 p.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET) is on the road.Fish Unfiltered will be interviewing Josh Bell for a new podcast episode. Feel free to contact Kevin Barral or comment below with any specific questions/topics for the recently acquired Marlins first baseman.After placing them third midway through the 2021 season, MLB Pipeline has dropped the Marlins down to 24th in their updated farm system rankings. Pipeline was slow to recognize the system's vulnerabilities, in my opinion, but they've now remedied that.RHP Noble Meyer ranks 62nd on Just Baseball's latest Top 100 MLB prospects list.Ben Lindbergh of The Ringer explores why so much of the baseball industry overlooked Luis Arraez at every step of his professional journey, and whether his success will help contact-oriented prospects get more respect moving forward.Jay Cuda finds something that Jazz Chisholm Jr. has in common with...the Great Pyramid of Giza?!Our partners at FOCO have dozens of products in their Miami Marlins collection. Shop here.Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images -
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Marlins bring back Jorge Alfaro on minor league deal
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
No downside, other than some hurt feelings for Austin Allen. He's been a terrific hitter in Triple-A from May onward. Wouldn't say Alfaro is a clear defensive upgrade over him, either. -
Jorge Alfaro has signed a minor league deal with the Miami Marlins, as first reported by the Miami Herald's Jordan McPherson. Welcome back, old friend. Alfaro's previous stint in Miami (2019-2021) represents about half of his total major league experience. The Colombian catcher slashed .252/.298/.386 (83 wRC+) and produced 1.7 fWAR in those 253 games. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2021/2021-04/17/70535b12-f933e2cf-e1f0a0d5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4But most of his offensive success was concentrated in that first season. Also, the Marlins fell so far out of his favor with his defense that they acquired two young backstops (Alex Jackson and Payton Henry) at the 2021 trade deadline and primarily used "El Oso" in left field down the stretch. The Marlins made yet another catcher acquisition (Jacob Stallings) right before the MLB lockout, subsequently dumping Alfaro to the San Diego Padres for cash. Alfaro initially bounced back with a vengeance in San Diego. He owned a 124 wRC+ through June of the 2022 campaign and even dealt the Marlins a devastating loss with a walk-off three-run home run against Cole Sulser. However, his production cratered to a new low after that. He had to settle for a minor league deal with the Boston Red Sox entering this year. In 18 MLB games for the Sox and Colorado Rockies in 2023, he has slashed a meager .146/.212/.292 (24 wRC+), striking out 28.8% of the time. Most of his summer has been spent in Triple-A. Even when he's locked in, the 30-year-old Alfaro demonstrates horrific plate discipline. He has chased nearly half of all pitches outside the strike zone since debuting in 2016, per FanGraphs. That directly contributes to his obscenely high 34.0% career strikeout rate. Nick Fortes and Jacob Stallings have been an underwhelming catching tandem for the Marlins this season. Alfaro brings great raw power and arm strength that they lack, and he has familiarity with several of the club's active pitchers (especially Sandy Alcantara and Braxton Garrett). That being said, I don't foresee Alfaro replacing either of them barring injury. If he excels with Triple-A Jacksonville over the next few weeks, he could build a case to be a September call-up. The struggles of Fortes and Stallings have been especially pronounced against right-handed pitching, so perhaps Alfaro could pinch-hit in select late-game scenarios, or at least take over behind the plate after somebody else on the team pinch-hits. He'd also have usefulness as a pinch-runner for Stallings and several of the other veterans on the Fish (82nd percentile in Sprint Speed among MLB qualifiers). In the meantime, it will be interesting to see how the Jumbo Shrimp split up catcher and designated hitter reps between Alfaro, Austin Allen and Paul McIntosh. This news is a tough break for Allen in particular, who's been hitting as well as Alfaro in recent months but without even receiving a cup of coffee in The Show at any point. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
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Monday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Monday's Marlins MiLB notes: Edward Cabrera (Jacksonville) won International League Pitcher of the Week and 1B Angelo DiSpigna (FCL Marlins) won Florida Complex League Player of the Week. An undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech, DiSpigna is an obvious candidate to be promoted to Jupiter later this month once the FCL season ends. OF Andres Valor (DSL Miami) hit his fifth home run of the season.Jorge Soler, Luis Arraez and Josh Bell joined Derrek Lee, Cliff Floyd and Kevin Orie (1998) as the only trio in Marlins history to hit back-to-back-to-back home runs. Miami won despite their pitching staff striking out only two batters (a season low). This was the Marlins' 26th interleague win of the season, which is most among MLB teams.For the first time on Monday, the winner of the Marlins Rooster Race wasn't wearing the same uniform as the players themselves. We'll continue tracking the game-by-game mascot race results through season's end.https://fishonfirst.com/at-the-ballpark/2023-marlins-rooster-race-results/NL Wild Card race updates: the Diamondbacks, Giants and Padres all lost. The Marlins hold the third Wild Card spot by one game.Elsewhere around the majors, Garrett Cooper homered for the first time since being traded, a 439-footer to straightaway center field. Brady Singer carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning, but the Royals bullpen blew his 5-0 lead. K.C. rallied in the bottom of the ninth to win it anyway.Check out the full replay of , including extended thoughts about the Marlins' lineup construction and the recent mediocrity of the non-Sandy starters. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/The Marlins have a 43.4% chance to win their next game against the Astros, per FanGraphs. Yuli Gurriel will be presented with his 2022 World Series ring. Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:30 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (6:10 p.m. ET), FCL Marlins (10:00 a.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Speaking to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, former Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria remains bitter about how new ownership renovated the ballpark, particularly in regards to displacing his beloved home run sculpture. On Derek Jeter's brief tenure as CEO, Loria says, "he was a magnificent player, and he should have asked for some advice or not been so hasty." Loria alleges that he still watches "more than half" of all Marlins games and roots for their success.Sandy Alcantara ranks 16th, Jesús Luzardo ranks 27th, Eury Pérez ranks 46th and Johnny Cueto ranks 98th on The List of Top 100 starting pitchers for fantasy baseball created by Nick Pollack.Launching on September 5, the Marlins Rookies program will be teaching baseball and softball fundamentals to kids ages 12 and under at Babcock Park in Hialeah. Registration is $40 and closes on August 28.It didn't take long for Burger King—headquartered in South Florida—to hook up Jake Burger with free food and crowns. Here is the interview he had on MLB Network immediately afterwards. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
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Offishial news, 8/14/23: Biggest comeback yet; why Bell fits in perfectly
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Sunday's Games/game-coverage/marlins-yankees-8-13-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/13/b0c47811-e9622266-262e9a6e-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Sunday's Marlins MiLB Notes: INF Xavier Edwards (Jacksonville) drew four walks, reached on an error and hit a sacrifice fly. Pitching on back-to-back days in what was presumably the final appearance of his minor league rehab assignment, Tommy Nance (Pensacola) worked a scoreless inning of relief. Question is whether he'll be placed on the Marlins active roster or optioned to Jacksonville upon being reinstated from the injured list. OF Chase Luttrell went 0-for-3 with a hit by pitch in his Beloit debut. C Spencer Bramwell (Jupiter) blasted a game-winning two-run home run and LHP Evan Taylor picked up his organization-leading 16th save.Luis Arraez and Jake Burger recorded three hits apiece to propel the Marlins to their biggest comeback win of the 2023 season. That included an Arraez game-tying triple and a Burger walk-off single. The club had a meager 1.7% win probability entering the bottom of the ninth, according to FanGraphs, before rallying against Yankees closer Clay Holmes. It was their 27th one-run win.The Marlins pulled it off despite another underwhelming performance by Eury Pérez (4.0 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR on 82 pitches/47 strikes). Since the All-Star break, Sandy Alcantara hasn't gotten much help from his rotation mates, accounting for four of Miami's eight quality starts.Listen to our weekly State of the Fish Marlins call-in show. Beyond the usual analysis of the major league roster, lots of Troy Johnston talk made it into this one. Congrats to Zack Ondriezek (@ZackOndriezek), who won our mid-show Marlins vs. Astros ticket giveaway.NL Wild Card race updates: the Diamondbacks and Giants won, the Reds split their doubleheader, and the Phillies, Cubs and Padres lost. The Marlins hold the third Wild Card spot by 0.5 games.Elsewhere around the majors, the Nationals pulled off an astonishing comeback of their own against the Athletics after trailing 7-2 entering the bottom of the ninth. Matt Olson homered for the 43rd time and drove in his 106th and 107th runs (he leads the league in both categories). Wander Franco is facing allegations that he sexually assaulted a minor. There's an MLB investigation underway.We’ve got a new episode of Fish On First LIVE streaming tonight at 5:30 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Special guests: David Ferrel and Noemi Rodriguez. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! /la-pop/Entering this new week, the Marlins have 46.0% playoff odds, per FanGraphs. They have a 43.9% chance to win their series opener against the Astros. DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) is at home, while DSL Marlins (10:00 a.m. ET) is on the road.Alex Krutchik wrote about the impact Josh Bell has already made on the Marlins. More from Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald on Bell's "perfect fit" with the Fish./game-coverage/at-the-ballpark/josh-bell-hot-start-with-marlins/Bell will be our next guest on the Fish Unfiltered podcast show, so feel free to comment with any questions/topics for that interview.For the second straight weekend, Alex Carver was on site for FCL Marlins coverage. He'll have an article coming shortly to our Fish on the Farm section with all of his observations.Ryan Schlesinger continues his series looking at the best Marlins ever at every jersey number.Happy 46th birthday to Marlins legend Juan Pierre. The speedy leadoff man didn't miss a game during his first three seasons with the Fish (2003-2005). He returned to Miami to close out his MLB career in 2013. The World Series champion still holds the franchise single-season record for stolen bases (65). In retirement, Pierre remains involved with the Marlins as a spring training guest instructor,Photo by Jesus Sanchez/Fish On First -
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Troy Johnston has nothing left to prove in minors
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
I do think there's also a real possibility that they cut their losses with Avi after the season. He will need to show SOMETHING in these remaining games to prove he has a role to fill. There has been no improvement from 2022. -
Troy Johnston has nothing left to prove in minors
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
Even with what he's done in the minors, his age and limited usefulness on defense suppress his trade value. Don't see him being the centerpiece of a catcher trade. -
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Yeah, at the very least, Luzardo will need to pitch his Marlins career numbers the rest of the way for this team to get where they want to go.
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Troy Johnston's 2023 success didn't come out of nowhere. Dating back to his professional debut in 2019, Johnston had been the leading run producer among all Miami Marlins prospects. He's been a Midwest League and Southern League post-season All-Star selection, an Arizona Fall League participant and a non-roster invitee to major league spring training. He posted a 124 wRC+ in regular season games during that span (with 100 representing league average). Despite the accolades and offensive prowess, the Marlins weren't fully sold on Johnston. After spending most of the 2022 season with Double-A Pensacola, he was assigned to play there again. "I would just like to polish my game to become more of a big leaguer than I am right now," Johnston Fish On First's Kevin Barral entering his age-26 campaign. "I really enjoy progressing my game to a level that potentially I could make the Opening Day roster next year, or even debut this year. That's just up to me and how well I'm gonna perform this year."If only the baseball business was so simple, because Johnston has done everything in his power to legitimize himself. He bumped up his Double-A slash line from .292/.360/.450 in 2022 to .296/.396/.567 in 2023, reducing his strikeout rate and making a far greater impact as a baserunner. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A Jacksonville, where the numbers have been even more extraordinary—.419/.471/.758 slash line in 15 games entering Saturday. With the Blue Wahoos and Jumbo Shrimp combined, Johnston has driven in 100 runs. It's the most RBIs in a single season by a Marlins minor leaguer since Scott Seabol (2007). There are 12 other Marlins minor leaguers who have reached 100 ribbies in a single season, but Johnston is on pace to became the first to drive in more than one run per game while doing so: Kevin Millar, 131 RBI in 135 AA games (1997)Tim Clark, 126 RBI in 128 A+ games (1993)John Toale, 125 RBI in 134 A+ games (1993)Brian Daubach, 124 RBI in 140 AAA games (1998)Bryn Kosco, 121 RBI in 121 A+ games (1993)Joe Dillon, 117 RBI in 141 AA/AAA games (2004)Jerry Brooks, 107 RBI in 136 AAA games (1996)Brad McCann, 106 RBI in 123 A games (2005)José Santos, 105 RBI in 128 A games (1999)Scott Seabol, 105 RBI in 139 AAA games (2007)Adrián González, 103 RBI in 127 A games (2001)Billy McMillon, 101 RBI in 137 AAA games (1994)Troy Johnston, 100 RBI in 98 AA/AAA games (2023)You won't get far when attempting to translate MiLB RBIs to MLB RBIs. Five of the players ahead of Johnston on this leaderboard didn't even appear in the majors. Several others who broke through to the highest level failed to stick for any full-length seasons. That being said, I'm glad I put in the time to research this because Brian Daubach jumps out as an intriguing comp for Troy. Both were 17th-round draft picks who played first base and the corner outfield spots with similar physical measurements and batted from the left side. Like Johnston, Daubach enjoyed his monster season at age 26 while repeating a level he previously played at. Daubach got his first MLB opportunity with the Fish in 1998, but spent the majority of his career with the Boston Red Sox. He played parts of eight seasons in The Show and posted a 108 wRC+, accruing 4.7 fWAR. The 2023 Marlins have surprisingly stayed in playoff contention despite struggling to produce runs throughout the season. Why not let Johnston try to help with that? For the time being, he is simply blocked. Josh Bell and Jorge Soler are in the Marlins lineup practically every day at first base and designated hitter, respectively. Yuli Gurriel is next up on the depth chart—although Gurriel hasn't exactly been "good" on the field in 2023, the club values his glovework, contact hitting and veteran savvy too much to release him at this stage of the season. In a vacuum, is Johnston a better baseball player than Avisaíl García? I believe so. But it's probably time to talk about Johnston's corner outfield days in the past tense. He has not played there at all this season after getting sporadic reps in 2021 and 2022 (almost all of those in left field). Also, he wouldn't be a natural platoon partner with Jesús Sánchez, a fellow left-handed hitter. If there's an injury to Bell, Soler or Gurriel, Johnston should be on the next flight to Miami. Even if that trio stays healthy, perhaps Johnston could squeeze onto the Marlins active roster when it expands on Sept. 1, relegating Gurriel exclusively to pinch-hitting and late-game defensive work. Photo courtesy of Pensacola Blue Wahoos
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