Complete breakdown of Fish On First’s end-of-season Top 30 prospects list

[Alex Carver]

As the Miami Marlins organization heads into the winter, they have breakout prospects to be enthused about while having good reason to hold out hope for others who haven’t met expectations. Overall, Miami will head into 2027 with a top-heavy system featuring some of baseball’s top talent, some of which rose to that level during the past six months. Question marks are abound in the B-tier of the system; questions arising from both injury and subpar performance. Finally, the back third of our newest top 30 consensus list features some up-and-comers we simply need to see more positive production from.

How did some of our standouts and top movers get to where they are on our list and who just missed the cut? Here’s a closer look.

 

 

2025 MLB Draft picks impress

It’s no secret: before the 2025 class, the Marlins had struggled developing draft selections in the post-Stan Meek era, especially in the early rounds. While foregoing the likes of CJ Abrams, Brooks Lee, Matt Shaw, Theo Gillen and Carson Benge, Miami has seen JJ Bleday, Kahlil Watson and Jacob Berry come and go from the organization without making an MLB impact and has witnessed Noble Meyer and PJ Morlando slog through injury-riddled tenures early in their pro careers. Needless to say, new amateur scouting director Frankie Pillierie and his staff needed to prove their direction and strategy in discovering and scouting talent will work, especially for a Marlins organization that needs to be able to maximize on investments.

As such, Pillere and company should be ecstatic with what they saw out of their 2025 class this season. In their first full year pro, multiple members of the signing period were some of the brightest stars in the Marlins’ minor league system and in some cases, Minor League Baseball as a whole. First-round pick Aiva Arquette (#5 on FOF Top 30) had a late start to the year and also ended the season on the IL, but what he showed in between was plenty encouraging. The 22-year-old started the year at High-A, but after a .276/.333/.517 start was a quick promotee up to Double-A. In a larger sample at a higher level, Arquette slashed a similar .271/.325/.443. He hit 12 total homers and showed off plus speed by stealing 21 bases in 23 attempts. Along with his ability to stay healthy, swing-and-miss potential partially related to a swing with a lot of moving parts will be question marks for Arquette as he continues to develop, but initial returns were more than satisfactory. Defensively, Arquette will likely be moved off of shortstop long term, but has shown the qualities to stick at third base. Arquette maintains a solid top five spot on our end-of-season list.

From satisfactory to eye-popping, we move from Arquette to Cam Cannarella (FOF #3). After suffering an early-season wrist injury in an outfield collision, the competitive balance round pick came back with a full head of steam and didn’t hold back all year. A brief 19-game stint with Beloit parlayed into a .344/.453/.607 tenure with Pensacola. Cannarella spent the final 45 games of the season at the highest level of the minors where he hit .282/.393/.813.

Outside of a slightly higher K rate at Triple-A, the two changes in level and improvement in quality of stuff did not bother Cannarella much as he hit both velocity and breaking stuff well consistently, showing fantastic barrel control, and plate coverage to go to all fields. Earning percentile ranks in the 90s or higher in average exit velo, hard hit rate, and O-swing with Jacksonville, Cannarella swung nearly exclusively at strikes and when he made contact, it was of the squared up variety. One of the best bats in the entirety of MiLB, the long-term center fielder is looking every bit like a big leaguer. With Jakob Marsee injured, we could potentially see the organization’s MiLB Player of the Year and our third-ranked prospect with the Fish early in 2027.

Brandon Compton (FOF #10), the Marlins’ third overall selection from 2025, followed a similar trajectory as Cannarella and made a similar amount of extreme noise with the bat. After being somewhat limited by a hamate injury that he played through during the early part of the season, Compton rebuilt his strength back to 100% and adjusted to a new bat grip by June. From the 1st of that month through the rest of the season, Compton was statistically the best hitter in all of Minor League Baseball. Absolutely feasting on opposite side pitching and fastballs, Compton tore through Double-and-Triple-A slashing .309/.409/.685 in his final 85 games of the season. In the field, the converted pitcher spent most of his time in the outfield but with a history of Tommy John and just average route running ability, Compton moonlighted as a first baseman late in the season.

Along with his defensive home still being up in the air, there are also reservations about Compton’s high K rate, very lopsided platoon splits and his ability to handle breaking stuff. A man of extremes, Compton hit just .130/.323/.247 against same-side pitching and held a similar slash line against non-fastballs. To his credit though, Compton has been able to make a great impression in a very short amount of baseball games. There are still a lot of “ifs” Compton will have to fulfill to reach a ceiling reminiscent of Rookie of the Year favorite Sal Stewart, but settling somewhere in the neighborhood of Griffin Conine wouldn’t be terrible.

 

Cautiously optimistic

When it comes to their 2026 draft class, the Marlins opted to take a cautious approach, holding most of their selections out of official game action and instead, relegating them to scrimmage work at the Jupiter Academy. Miami did allow four players to get a taste of affiliated action, though, one being first-round pick Jacob Lombard (FOF #4). Pilliere and the Marlins were “thrilled” when the prep shortstop from Gulliver Prep who grew up in the shadow of loanDepot park fell to them at 14th overall this past July. In 22 games, Lombard showed flashes of the raw tools he possesses that caused evaluators to label him the second-best prep shortstop in the nation. Stemming from quick wrists and hands and good involvement of his lower half, Lombard showed very strong exit velocities reaching as high as 105 mph and which averaged out at 90.6, within the 90th percentile in the Florida State League. Bat control seems to be where Lombard needs the most work. While he didn’t swing outside of the zone often (just 20% of the time) he struck out at a 39% rate, alarmingly high no matter the level of competition. Defensively, Lombard showed good range and a strong but inaccurate arm that largely accounted for his seven errors.

If the Marlins can get the most out of the crowned jewel of their 2026 class, he profiles as a four of five tool player, but there’s understandably for a 19-year-old, his tools need polish. Because of the validity of his high school career, the fact that many evaluators pin him more advanced than his brother George Jr. when he was the same age, and his potential ceiling, we remain cautiously optimistic about Lombard’s future. He comes in at fourth on our end of season list. His first full season will be a much better barometer for how close he can get to being a five-tool guy.

It was a tale of two halves for Dillon Lewis (FOF #6). After making a strong impression in spring training with his new team, the 6’3”, 205 unit reported to Double-A Pensacola for his debut at the level. His .267/.389/.533 spring campaign parlayed into immediate success with the Wahoos, particularly relating to his propensity to hit baseballs very far. Between April and June, Lewis hit 17 homers, putting him on pace for 30+ over the course of the full season slate. However, Lewis met with a much more unfortunate fate. Following Pensacola’s June 24 contest, it was discovered that Lewis suffered a broken hamate bone that required removal surgery. Lewis made it back from the injury in the regularly expected time frame of around seven weeks and while it was clear he was healthy enough to play, it was also evident he was still building back strength. From his return on August 14 up until the final game of the regular season, Lewis did not hit another home run. His second half slash was .243/.257/.340. Lewis is a pure power hitter who will always have a high propensity for strikeouts. If he is not hitting for power, his above-average K rates will be hard to overlook. Because of his absurd raw strength and overall athleticism though, we remain high on Lewis’ ability to fully come back from injury and continue to slug while providing the speed and arm necessary to hold down any outfield spot. As such, he remains ranked well within our top 30, at sixth. The 23-year-old will attempt to make up for lost time this autumn in the Arizona Fall League before taking part in another spring training ahead of 2027. An MLB debut next season shouldn’t be ruled out.

 

We need to see more

Several position player prospects have shot up our list following incredible but limited showings this season. The first name that comes to mind is another 2025 draft pick, Max Williams (FOF #22). Miami’s third rounder from last season, Williams wasn’t ready for in-game action until July due to a shoulder injury suffered in spring training. But from the moment Williams stepped into the batter’s box for Low-A Jupiter on July 9, he was making noise. A 2-for-5 effort that included his first homer in his first effort of 2026 parlayed into a 20-for-58 effort at Low-A, prompting his call to Beloit. Williams met that level with a 29-95, 7 homer effort earning him another promotion to Double-A. He lived out his final nine games going 12-for-34 with six more bombs. Williams homered at an audacious pace, going yard once in every 17 at bats. Overall, Williams slashed .326/.399/.620.

As incredible as the 22-year-old’s run was, we simply need to see a larger sample and to see him spend a longer tenure at a single level, which will give pitchers and teams an opportunity to adjust to him. Additionally, while Williams was healthy enough to bat, he was held out of playing the field until very late in the season. How will Williams’ look during the course of a full season in the upper minors and how will his throwing arm look post-labrum surgery? These are all questions we will get answers to next season. If he can somehow prove the torrid offensive pace he showed this season is sustainable and if he can remain eligible in the corner outfield spots, Williams will continue to rise up our prospect rankings. For now, he comes in at 22nd overall.

Another short-but-incredible offensive showing took place in the international ranks, this time by a player still in his teenage years. Participating in his first professional season, Santiago Solarte (FOF #12) put up a .339/.450/.538 slash line with 10 homers and 42 stolen bases in 52 games. A massive 6’5”, 200 pound specimen at age 17, Solarte put peak athleticism on full display in every facet of his offensive game, showing off easy power and speed. The swing-and-miss potential was a bit high for Solarte (26% K rate) against the most nascent level of competition, but he was able to rival it with a 12.9% walk rate. With plenty of room to grow into an already impressive frame, the mix of power and speed here is alluring. What Solarte will need to find is a defensive home. Scouted and signed as a shortstop, Solarte made 13 errors in just 24 appearances a the position, causing Miami to also feed him 19 games at third base. Solarte fared much better at the hot corner and will likely be tried as a full time third baseman next season. How he fills out his frame, how much he can keep Ks in check at higher levels, how his body responds to a full slate of games, and if he can in fact handle third on a full-time basis are all questions we need to see answered as Solarte matriculates stateside next season.

 

Safe floors

In the middle of our list lie a grouping of players who do a lot of things right. Though the tools may not be massive or loud, the sum of their parts will equal a dependable Major League Baseball player in some capacity. The first name within the grouping is Fenwick Trimble (FOF #16). A member of Miami’s 2024 draft class, Trimble spent the entirety of 2026 in Double-A after spending 2025 at three different levels. In an extended look at Southern League pitching, the success Trimble had at the level last year not only stagnated, it was more robust. In 85 games, the 24-year-old improved his average by more than 30 points (.263) and added nearly 100 points to his slug (.465). The improvement in power came by way of an improvement in his ability to get under the ball as his fly ball rate grew from 28% to 37% without sacrificing his bat speed. The full year with Pensacola and the newfound power did come at the expense of some points on his walk rate (9.2%) and OBP (.344), but if Trimble can find a happy medium between power and patience as he fills out, his ceiling is that of a starting outfielder at any spot, including center field. Known as a pesky out who views the strike zone well before this past season and with above average speed that allotted him 31 bags, there is definitely an MLB future here, at least as a fourth outfielder. The beginning of next year should give us a good idea of how close he can get to his ceiling before a possible MLB call up, especially if the Marlins don’t look for right handed bats. While none of Trimble’s tools are very loud, many of them are good and he may have just solved for one clear offensive gap. These facts give us reason to slot Trimble right around the midway point of our list at 16th.

Another high-floor player comes in at 21st on our list: lefty Nate Payne (FOF #21). Also part of the 2024 draft class, the high schooler made his pro debut in 2025 first in the FCL then with Low-A Jupiter. Right away, Payne showed a solid foundation, particularly with an advanced curveball. Command was still an evident work in progress, as he allowed walks at an extremely elevated 16.2% clip, but Payne showed good poise with runners on and limited damage to tune of a 3.20 ERA.

This spring and summer, Payne worked to revamp his arsenal, turning his cutter into his most utilized secondary and blending his changeup into a his sharp diving splitter. By pounding the zone and garnering more swings outside of it particularly with his always-great anchor curveball and newly improved splitter, Payne drove up his whiff rates walked just three more than his 2025 total in more than twice as many innings pitched. Payne’s percentile rankings light up the page as he earned marks in the 80th percentile or better in K rate, whiff rate and CSW. The only knock on Payne was the fact that he was a bit susceptible to the long ball, allowing 15 on the season (1.21 HR/9). While we need to see how that plays as Payne matriculates to the upper minors especially with limited velo (sitting 92), his good size, wide arsenal, and great command at age 21 give him a solid future as a back-end starter or, at the very least, a multiple inning reliever potentially in short order given his sudden growth and the fact he’s a southpaw. He’s an under-the-radar name who has handled failure well and drastically improved early in his pro career to keep tabs on.

 

New kids in town

The Marlins weren’t necessarily buyers or sellers at this year’s deadline; they settled somewhere in the middle. As a result, several new prospects entered the organization and by way of their 2026 accomplishments, earned Top 30 spots. Coming in at 19th is infielder Brayden Taylor, a product of the Liam Hicks trade. Tampa Bay’s 2023 first-round pick, Taylor came to the Marlins riding high, slashing .284/.384/.513 with the Montgomery Biscuits. Upon joining the Marlins, he was promoted the Triple-A Jacksonville. There, in an even more hitter friendly league, Taylor’s on-base and power numbers persisted through 33 games, but he hit a lowly .194. The culprit for Taylor’s lack of hits with Jacksonville wasn’t the fact that he swung at bad pitches (20.1% O-swing); it was attributed to a heightened whiff rate (27.8%) and a lack of contact swinging at pitches in the zone (80.5% Z-contact). Additionally, his hard-hit rate fell to 37.8% which, along with a stroke of bad luck, paved the way to a lowly .234 BABIP.

While the 33-game spell at Triple-A could have gone better in terms of making a good first impression with his new organization, Taylor still showed the underlying tools that made him the central return piece of the deal. As long as he’s able to come back advantageously from that end of season slump in terms of his contact rates, Taylor’s ability to select pitches and drive the ball to his pull side could carry him to a good ceiling. On top of that, Taylor earns high marks as high as 60-grade at a position of need for the Marlins, third base where he has reliable arm strength, quick hands and good range to his left. He also has the versatility to play second base. All in all, Taylor checks many boxes and could be the Marlins’ long-term answer on the left side of the infield as long as he’s able to make consistent contact by not forcing pull contact. Expect him to get a look in spring training before a possible call-up as early as the first half of next season.

Another part of the Hicks trade, righty Jacob Kisting, slots in at 25th. A 14th-round pick by the Twins in 2024, Kisting came to the Marlins in the middle of his second year pro. Dominating at High-A within the Rays system, the Marlins saw it fit to challenge him to Double-A ball upon his arrival to the organization. Kisting took the promotion in stride and continued to turn in very similar results over his first 24 innings at the level. In five games with the Blue Wahoos, Kisting tossed 24 innings worth of 1.88 ERA ball with 31 strikeouts and seven walks.

Kisting is another sum-of-his-parts type prospect who doesn’t do one thing great, but does a lot of things well. He isn’t going to blow anyone away with velocity or stuff as he sits around 93 with his fastball and doesn’t have a true standout secondary. However, at his best, Kisting is effective by way of mixing speeds, shortening distance to the plate, changing eye levels and giving hitters many different looks at a wide arsenal. To his credit, Kisting throws a slider, sweeper, kick changeup, and splitter. The slider is probably his best secondary because of his ability to land it for strikes. The rest of his secondaries are usable, but his feel and command over them is fringy. That fact plus a low BABIP with the Wahoos this year provide some skepticism surrounding how effective Kisting’s arm will be in extended looks against upper minors pitching. If the Marlins can continue to riddle out his command and build up his arsenal, he could stick as a starter, but may be better suited only facing lineups a maximum of twice per game. At the least, the 6’5” specimen has a future as an MLB reliever. 

 

Just missed

With an improving system and only 30 spots to fill, we need to give credence to players who were in significant discussion to make our list but for one reason or another, we’re left off. The first of this crowd is infielder Echedry Vargas. A Texas Rangers signing from the 2021-22 period, Vargas came to the Marlins in the Jake Burger trade in 2024 on the heels of a .276/.321/.454 season at Low-A. Right on schedule in development and continuing to jump a level each year, the Marlins promoted Vargas to Hogh-A to begin his tenure with the organization in 2025. It was a rude welcome to the level for Vargas though as, in limited action (82 games), he slashed just .201/.255/.322 with an audacious 80/12 K/BB.

Clearly overmatched at the level and with competition for playing time nipping at his heels, the Marlins demoted Vargas back to Low-A for 2026. This season, back in Jupiter, Vargas absolutely exploded for what would become a historic season in the Florida State League. The 5’11”, 170 Vargas hit .323/.372/.611 with 27 homers, the most ever by a Hammerheads player. Vargas decimated the ball all season long, but still was not promoted back to the High-A ranks. The case could be made that Miami didn’t send Vargas back to Beloit to allow him to continue to build confidence. It could also be said that the 21-year-old remained with Jupiter to try to improve his walk rate which still sat at a lowly 6.5%. Whatever the reason, as good as this year was, we are still wary of buying in on a K rate historically north of 21% (he still struck out 22% of the time this year), very little walks, and nearly exclusive pull side contact.

Vargas has proven he has the raw thump to make noise at the plate and he quieted down his approach a bit this year, but we need to see it matriculate to higher levels. Particular improvements needed include his ability to work counts, use more of the field, and not force power. With just an average glove, Vargas currently profiles as a boom-or-bust, power or nothing profile. We are intrigued to see how he is able to build off 2026, but for now, his future remains just too volatile for us to buy in.

It’s been quite the roller coaster ride for Brandon White thus far in his pro career. Drafted in the 12th round in 2021, the massive physical specimen missed nearly the first two full years of his pro tenure due to injury. Finally, in 2024, White was able to get  nearly a full season’s worth of innings under his belt. White was 24 that year, but developmentally, he was still 21 simply needing innings and experience to make up for lost time. In 2025, the Marlins decided to be cautious with White’s arm and psyche, delegating him to a swing man role. Results were solid for White with the Sky Carp as he tossed to a 4.06 ERA with a 73/26 K/BB. He ended that season on a great run tossing the best baseball of his life, allowing just 10 earned runs over his last 47.1 innings. Finally, it looked as though the massive 6’8” righty looked to be on track and was showing the potential to fulfill his MLB dream. Things started just as swimmingly for White this season as he made the jump to the upper minors. After a healthy spring, he held down a 3.00 ERA in 33 frames for the Blue Wahoos. White was also showing an enhanced ability to garner whiffs and limit walks as he had a 39/5 K/BB.

Needing to challenge the 26-year-old quickly, the Marlins pushed White to Triple-A in May. With the Jumbo Shrimp in the hitter friendly International League, command consistency was an issue for White and Triple-A hitters didn’t let his mistakes go to waste. To go along with a lowly 36% ground ball rate due to his inability to keep the ball down in the zone, White allowed homers on fly balls at a 17% clip. Thanks in large part to the homers, White had a 6.08 ERA, 4.94 of which belonged to his FIP. White has good velocity, topping at 98 and sitting 96, a good fading mid-80s changeup and some of the best extension in all of MiLB, but he has struggled to develop a third pitch. His slider hit the zone just 39% of the time with Jacksonville and his new sweeper which Miami attempted to teach him this year, is very much in the nascent stages. To be as statistically imposing as he is physically, White will need one of those pitches to develop quickly. He will also need to control his massive levers more consistently in order to plane his pitches downward to induce more weak contact. Inasmuch as White showed solid flashes last year and at Pensacola this year, he still has a lot of ground to make up to become MLB ready. At this point, we have our doubts but remain optimistic. 2027 will be a huge year for him.

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[David Slaton]

Very good article Alex! In depth and educational. I enjoyed the read!