Does Pete Fairbanks have trade value thanks to perfectly timed hot streak?

[Ely Sussman]

We know that the Miami Marlins are open-minded to doing almost anything prior to Monday's MLB trade deadline, but anticipating specific moves is especially difficult this year. History teaches us that the vast majority of big leaguers who switch teams in deadline deals are either pending free agents or a year away from free agent eligibility, and the Marlins have very few of those.

Pete Fairbanks was supposed to be their obvious trade candidate under these circumstances. Outside of a minimum-length injured list stint in late April/early May, the veteran closer has been available, throwing gas...and perplexingly bad. He owned a 6.83 ERA and 5.17 FIP entering the All-Star break, having already matched a single-season career-high with seven home runs allowed. The break did him no favors as Fairbanks had another dispiriting performance in Milwaukee on July 19, blowing a 2-0 lead and extending the club's losing streak to six games at the time.

No save situations presented themselves over the next week, so Fairbanks wasn't utilized again until July 26. Since then, he has been flawless—four appearances, 12 batters faced, 12 batters retired. It is the longest streak of perfection that we've seen from the 32-year-old during his Marlins tenure. It took only seven pitches for him to secure Friday's victory against the New York Mets, marking his most efficient inning of the season.

There haven't been notable changes to Fairbanks' velocity or pitch mix in this microscopic sample. He is still heavily reliant on fly balls (Friday's final out would have cleared the fence of 15 MLB ballparks, according to Statcast). He is constantly getting ahead in the count, but that has quietly been a strength of his throughout 2026 with a personal-best 66.9% first-pitch strike rate.

The trade deadline is ultimately a supply-and-demand equation. Working in the Marlins' favor, the vast majority of established closers around the league are on contending teams that have no interest in moving them. Over the last three seasons, Fairbanks ranks 14th in MLB with 65 saves. The only name above him on that leaderboard who is both healthy and presumed to be available is Kenley Jansen of the Detroit Tigers. Jansen is six years older than Fairbanks and continuing to struggle with his control (15.7 BB% compared to Fairbanks' 9.3 BB%).

Fairbanks is owed about $4 million through the end of the regular season, though the Marlins won't be motivated to move him simply to cut costs when they already have MLB's lowest payroll. They will be weighing whether the upside of the young players being offered in exchange for him outweighs the production he'd provide in August and September during their pursuit of a postseason berth.

View full article