For Marsee and King, everything will sort itself out

[Louis Addeo-Weiss]

With the dawn of each new baseball season comes expectations for how players will perform. Those expectations could be shaped by what they've done in previous seasons or how their raw talents are projected to translate to on-field production.

In the early going, randomness runs rampant. Former All-Star Cedric Mullins has an OPS 300 points below his career average and he ranks dead last among all qualified MLB hitters. Veteran right-hander Luis Castillo, who hasn't posted an ERA above 4.00 since 2018, is tied for the most runs allowed in the American League.

However, the length of the MLB schedule is immense and regression is inevitable.

The impetus for this piece is actually a Marlin: second-year outfielder Jakob Marsee.

For a team so long deprived of premium, homegrown talent, the addition of Marsee was a welcome sight to the Marlins and their future. In his 55-game debut in 2025, Marsee slashed .292/.363/.478/.842, all while playing a premium defensive position in center field, where he was worth five total zone runs. 

The beginning of his 2026 has paled in comparison to his previous year's work. Through 34 games played, Marsee has hit a mere .185/.305/.262/.567 for a paltry 66 wRC+.

While the Marlins have shown a willingness to demote (and outright cut) other underachievers this season, Marsee's job doesn't appear to be in any jeopardy as his process should portend better results.

Despite his sub-Mendoza line batting average, Marsee is walking in 13.5 percent of his plate appearances. Through play on May 2, only 31 of the qualified 179 hitters are walking at that clip, and only two are hitting below .200. In 2025, merely nine players walked north of 14 percent of the time, a list that included Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani—not to say that Marsee will ascend to those heights, but enough to tell you that his ability to work counts will eventually pay dividends.

The 24-year-old has raised his average launch angle from 10.9 to 18.9 degrees, the same as the Dodgers' Will Smith and just below Cody Bellinger (19.1) and Yordan Alvarez (19.2). Marsee's teammate, Xavier Edwards, himself off to a strong start, for context, has an average launch angle this season of 10.8 degrees, reinforcing that a steeper angle correlates to more power potential. Should Marsee sustain this, we could see him knock a few more balls out of the yard in due time.

For the time being, the Marlins have taken a small step to lighten Marsee's responsibility within their offense. On Tuesday, he was dropped to the fifth spot in the starting lineup for the first time in 2026.

To be consistent, we ought to similarity call out unsustainable success when we see it. Reliever John King is the poster child for that.

Inking a 1-year/$1.5M deal, King had proved himself a serviceable middle reliever, sporting a 3.80 ERA in parts of six seasons pitched with Texas and St. Louis to secure a one-year, $1.5 million deal from Miami in free agency. In 17 games since joining the club, King has arguably been the Marlins best pitcher on a per-inning basis, posting a minuscule 0.57 ERA and allowing just a trio of hits across 15 ⅔ innings pitched. 

King entered Tuesday with a 2.36 xERA, good enough for a 93rd percentile ranking among MLB pitchers. Hitters are seldom squaring him up as reflected in a mere 25.7% hard-hit rate (96th percentile) and a .167 xBA (also 96th). Kevin Barral spoke with King recently about how unpredictability in pitch usage has been vital to his success.

However, let's not ignore that King's 3.52 FIP and 3.87 xFIP are closely aligned with his pre-Marlins track record. Scouting reports will catch up to how he has de-emphasized his sinker this season. He's a capable arm in a big league bullpen, not the utterly dominant force he's been to this point.

Even if he is what the underlying metrics say he is, Peter Bendix and Co. got a bargain of a deal. 

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