Projecting Jakob Marsee's 2026 season

[Sean McCormack]

In 2025, Jakob Marsee emerged as one of the top all-around prospects in the Miami Marlins system, earning himself a midseason call-up to the big leagues. The lefty outfielder hit the ground running and won the National League Rookie of the Month award in August. Even with less production in September, Marsee was the most impactful position player on the club during that two-month span with a slash line of .292/.363/.478, a .363 wOBA and a 133 wRC+ while playing strong center field defense.

However, it would not be a fair expectation to count on Marsee maintaining those numbers throughout his upcoming sophomore season. Each of the projection models featured on FanGraphs believe his profile is much closer to that of an average regular than a star.

Marsee did a lot of damage at the plate despite a lack of raw power. His bat speed last season was 70.5 mph, nearly 1 mph slower than the MLB average. He posted a shockingly low 3.9% fast swing rate (average was 23.6%). He prioritized making consistent contact over trying to crush the ball. So far, he has enjoyed the best of both worlds and slugged at an impressive level, but moving forward, that approach will likely cost him some extra-base hits.

There was a 17-point difference between Marsee's wOBA and xwOBA. These models don't trust that to continue. Marsee is hindered by an ideal attack angle rate of 43.3%, far below the league average of nearly 51%.

Barring dramatic changes, Marsee's luck on balls in play is due to regress. He was helped by a .357 BABIP in 2025, but he's universally projected to settle below the .300 mark in 2026.

It will be important for Marsee to continue his trend of pulling the ball often. That gives him the highest likelihood of once again outperforming his damage data. 

The 24-year-old offers a high floor regardless. He has an excellent ability to discern balls from strikes and will regularly draw walks as a result. A speedy and instinctual fielder, Marsee was on a full-season pace to produce 12 defensive runs saved. Impacting games positively in that way makes it easy for the Marlins to give him playing time even when struggles inevitably occur at the plate.    I do believe Marsee should sacrifice some contact for bat speed. He cannot count on being rewarded for mediocre exit velocities as often moving forward, so seek opportunities to sell out for hard hits, especially when his patience gets him into favorable counts. 

With all due respect to the any fancy projection models, I foresee Marsee faring slightly better than they do in 2026. Assuming no underlying injuries that degrade his tools, he could finish around a 107 wRC+ with 2.8-3.2 fWAR.

 

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[Jose Herrera]

As long as he hits strikes hard he will be fine. His bat speed will improve and plus he can stretch out hits.

[MarlinzDude86]

I think he's good for 20-25 HR with 80-90 RBI given no injuries. Probably .280+ BA and a .350 OBP

[Jose Herrera]

@MarlinzDude86 Jim Edmonds?

[UKPhil]

Jakob was hot in his first month, but he also had a cold spell to end the season. I see him regressing a little but squeezing those extra base hits and staying disciplined at the plate, are hard wired into his system.

 

[One Regend]

8 hours ago, Jose Herrera said:

@MarlinzDude86 Jim Edmonds?

If he has the glove and outfield range of Jim Edmonds, while raking as he is now, watch out.

[Hippyboi]

If he becomes Jim Edmonds I will be pleasantly surprised (actually shocked!)but here's hoping