With aggressive approach, Marlins' offseason shopping could have already been done

[Ely Sussman]

The Miami Marlins front office operates very deliberately. That is not necessarily a bad thing, but in two-plus years under the direction of Peter Bendix, the pattern is undeniable. They wait and wait and wait to extract what they deem to be appropriate value—this was exemplified most clearly at the 2024 MLB trade deadline, when the Marlins made six separate trades on deadline day itself.

Covering a deliberate front office during the offseason is, frankly, not fun. So I'm going to make it fun by inviting you to an alternate universe in which the Marlins' approach is flipped upside down.

What if all of Miami's significant 2025-26 offseason moves were already completed? This exercise does not require too much imagination because the activity of other MLB teams lets us know approximately what it would've cost the Marlins in terms of money and talent to upgrade their roster.

Let's say that the Marlins did the following:

• Signed Josh Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million deal
• Signed Ryan Helsley to a two-year, $28 million deal
• Traded Ryan Weathers, William Kempner and Chris Arroyo to the Boston Red Sox for Jhostynxon García and Jesús Travieso
• Traded Joe Mack to the Washington Nationals for Jose A. Ferrer and Hunter Hines
• Signed Will Banfield to a minor league deal

Each of these hypothetical moves is based on an official transaction that we have seen around the league over the past month. Naylor, Helsley and Banfield received identical contracts from the Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds, respectively. The Weathers/Kempner/Arroyo package is meant to mimic the package of Johan Oviedo, Tyler Samaniego and Adonys Guzman that the Pittsburgh Pirates sent to Boston for García and Travieso.

Mack is taking the place of Harry Ford. In addition to Ford, the Mariners gave up their 2025 10th-round draft pick, right-hander Isaac Lyon, in the Ferrer trade. Seattle lacked leverage in negotiations because of the universal understanding that Ford was being "blocked" by the top catcher on the planet, Cal Raleigh, for the foreseeable future. Without that variable influencing the Marlins, I strongly believe Mack's current value is slightly higher than Ford's and it would be the Nationals including their 10th-rounder to balance the scales.

Would you have been satisfied if this was what the Marlins had actually done? All-Star-caliber first baseman in the prime of his career, two high-leverage relievers (one of whom is not even arbitration-eligible yet) and a powerful rookie outfielder. In exchange, however, they'd be parting with a controllable starting pitcher who has mid-rotation upside and a major league-ready catcher with brilliant defensive ability.

Here is an Opening Day roster projection to demonstrate how the pieces might've fit together:

• Projected starting lineup—C Agustín Ramírez, 1B Josh Naylor, 2B Xavier Edwards, 3B Graham Pauley, SS Otto Lopez, LF Kyle Stowers, CF Jakob Marsee, RF Jhostynxon García, DH Heriberto Hernández
• Projected bench—Liam Hicks, Connor Norby, Griffin Conine, Javier Sanoja
• Projected starting rotation—RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Edward Cabrera, RHP Eury Pérez, RHP Janson Junk, LHP Braxton Garrett
• Projected bullpen—RHP Ryan Helsley, RHP Ronny Henriquez, LHP Jose A. Ferrer, RHP Anthony Bender, RHP Tyler Phillips, LHP Cade Gibson, RHP Calvin Faucher, LHP Andrew Nardi

I think these Marlins would probably surpass the club's 79-83 record from last season, but their odds of earning a postseason berth would be a coin flip at best.

A few months from now once the dust settles, I'll be circling back to this as well as my original offseason blueprint and compare them to Bendix's real-life maneuvers.

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[JustMarlins]

Watching this front office’s behavior is like watching an animal in the wild. We have to look at the patterns. 
 

if this front office walks away from the winter meetings with no deals in place, it is safe to say that they will probably wait until February to make any additions.
 

However, if at the end of the winter meetings, this front office walks away with a major trade or signing, it shows that they’re breaking away from their usual patterns, and are more inclined to approach next season with the intent of making a serious push. 
 

For me, it is that simple. The end of the winter meetings will tell me what to expect.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

These articles are fun to read. I'm fine with the team's current program, boring or not. The results appear to be worthy of a vote of confidence, imo.

[BMK3]

I think we are sitting pretty right now with all our pitching.  I think Bendix is doing well by demanding a lot or no deal. I can go into the year as we are although a high leverage bullpen arm would look good. You win with the bullpen and playing 6 inning games before closing it out. First base is a position that will sort itself out. Just hoping Stowers and Marsee are what I hope they are. Go Fish!