Offishial News: Blue Jays extend Vladdy; Sandy Alcantara soon to be a daddy again

[Ely Sussman]

Today's news roundup also includes lots of winning throughout the Marlins minor league system.

It was several years in the making, but the Toronto Blue Jays have finally inked Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a lifetime contract. The extension reportedly guarantees Guerrero an even $500 million (with no deferrals) over the next 14 seasons, taking him through age 40 and ensuring he doesn't hit the free agent market.

This news is rightfully being celebrated across Canada, but it underscores the importance of committing to elite players as early as possible. By letting this linger as long as they did, the Jays have wound up paying for a bunch of Guerrero's post-prime years, and he is already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. It should go without saying that the Miami Marlins would never make such an inefficient investment under current ownership. If they're fortunate enough to develop a Guerrero-caliber hitter of their own in the coming years, they better be proactive about negotiating an extension.

Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 3-2. Edward Cabrera topped out at 100 mph in his second rehab start (4.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 53 pitches/41 strikes). Although not fully stretched out as a starter, he appears likely to rejoin their rotation this weekend. Jacob Berry manned first base for the first time this season and delivered the walk-off RBI single. Double-A Pensacola won, 8-4. Messy outing for Dax Fulton in his return to minor league competition after a two-year absence (3.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 72 pitches/45 strikes). Great situational hitting allowed the Blue Wahoos to overcome his control issues and four errors to complete the series sweep. High-A Beloit won, 5-4, sweeping their season-opening series as well. Low-A Jupiter won, 6-0. Dillon Head went 3-for-5 with two triples and two stolen bases. The Hammerheads totaled nine steals as a team.

More Marlins news and content below:

🔷 Congratulations to Sandy Alcantara, who has flown back to Miami for the delivery of his second child, a baby girl. Alcantara already has an eight-year-old son named Yorlin. He will be going on the paternity list.

🔷 Valente Bellozo is being recalled from Jacksonville in a corresponding roster move, Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase reports. Now I know for future reference—although Bellozo was optioned to the minors less than 15 days ago, a paternity list stint is one of the exceptions that allows a player to be recalled early. Bellozo is Miami's "likely" starter tonight, but he will need a lot of help from the rest of the pitching staff regardless after working two innings for the Jumbo Shrimp on Friday. Every bullpen arm should be available thanks to Sunday's postponement.

🔷 There are a couple injury concerns to monitor. Nick Fortes (neck stiffness) has not played since Wednesday. If he isn't available to catch tonight, the Marlins will have to seriously consider an IL stint. Xavier Edwards was scratched from Sunday's announced lineup due to right knee soreness. That knee began bothering him following this play way back on March 28.

🔷 The Prediction Time leaderboard has been updated through the first three series. Become a SuperSub and we'll keep track of your predictions all season long!

🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the San Francisco Giants enter this week riding a seven-game winning streak and owning an MLB-best 8-1 record.

🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins open a three-game series against the New York Mets (probable starter RHP Kodai Senga). The Marlins have a 27.0% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET.

🔷 Prior to the game, Fish On First LIVE will preview the series beginning at 6:00 p.m. ET. FOF LIVE is presented by About The Fans. Check out our new merchandise collection (coupon code fof10 for 10% off).

 

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State of the Fish - April 6, 2025

 

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

The Guerrero, Jr. deal is a serious mistake, one which will be a Cabrera-esque millstone around the Jays' team neck. With all of their whiffs in the FA market (and subsequent fan discontentment), it was ludicrously predictable that Toronto would vastly overpay. The amount and length of the deal are proof that fear of loss rules the MLB executive suites despite heavily skewed data against such inane commitments. Although Toronto might be able to afford such a millstone now, I wager this contract will be one of the top five or so in buyer's remorse. Investing this sum and term in a one-dimensional (with all due respect to his offense) player who represents 1/26th of a team is not wise. 

[One Regend]

That is a contract that I think is terrible from the moment it was signed, and will continue to think it's terrible when Guerrero approaches his Age 35 season (not even through age 40). This is a bloated mistake I hope the Marlins don't ever make. They've already made this mistake before with Giancarlo Stanton (that still had them paying the piper for post-trade) and I hope they don't make that mistake again.

The lesson learned is to invest early. The fact the Marlins aren't even trying to negotiate something with Eury Perez by now is criminal, to say the least. He's saddled with a major injury. and he's still in the middle of rehab. Now's the perfect chance to strike a deal. You might have to part with more money than you'd like, but talent like this doesn't grow on trees. Lock him down now before he starts demanding a Gerrit Cole-like megadeal in Free Agency.