Optimal lineup construction for the 2025 Marlins

[Sean McCormack]

The Marlins need every edge they can get to maximize their scoring opportunities with an inexperienced group of hitters.

Miami Marlins fans were underwhelmed by the lineup that took the field on Tuesday for the team's last preseason exhibition game. Their results were actually solid—in the five innings before backup players began taking their place, the Marlins offense scored four runs on five hits, including two home runs. They drew three walks and struck out seven times against New York Yankees right-hander Will Warren and a pair of minor league relievers.

We're expecting to see a similar lineup used on Opening Day and in other early-season matchups against right-handers.

Obviously, there's room to improve once Jesús Sánchez and Connor Norby recover from their oblique injuries. Beyond that, I believe the order of these hitters can be adjusted to put each of them in the best situation for themselves and their skill sets.

 

---

1. Xavier Edwards, SS

Potentially the Marlins' best hitter, X is the obvious choice for batting leadoff. When batting first, last season Edwards posted a 116 wRC+ and .340 wOBA. The base-stealing ability Edwards brings will allow the Marlins to try and manufacture runs through the bases and timely hitting. 

 

2. Jonah Bride, DH

Jonah Bride didn't spend much time last season batting second, but I believe his skill set fits well there with an 11% walk rate. If the Marlins cluster together their two best hitters in terms of getting on base, it will help the more aggressive hitters in the lineup drive them in. 

 

3. Jesús Sánchez, RF

Once Sánchez returns, this would be his best spot in the lineup. The lefty power hitter actually had his highest OPS batting third last season with a .970 OPS starting 23 games, compared to 49 games batting in the cleanup spot and 39 games batting fifth. Having Edwards and Bride ahead of him should allow for plenty of RBI opportunities. 

 

4. Connor Norby, 3B

There are understandably high expectations for Norby this season. An aggressive hitter who swung in the zone 12% more than league average and had a extreme first-pitch swing rate of 54%, he may need to tone down that approach for more sustainable numbers, but his 24% pulled fly ball rate and high barrel rate help him out-hit his exit velocities. Being able to jump on pitchers early in counts and hit the ball hard will create a path to scoring runners.

 

5. Matt Mervis/Eric Wagaman, 1B

The first platoon in the lineup would be at first base involving two hitters who were acquired last offseason. They have big shoes to fill considering that this was the most productive position for the 2024 Marlins in terms of both on-base percentage (.334) and slugging percentage (.432).

Mervis would find himself hitting vs. righties. Last season at Triple-A, he actually hit better vs. lefties than righties, but let's project a return to his career norms and conventional platoon splits. Overall, Mervis has a career .508 SLG in the minor leagues and with extended time in the bigs, the Marlins hope he brings that power to their lineup. 

Wagaman would be the righty platoon hitter to face lefties. In the minors during the 2024 season, he had a .920 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers.

 

6. Otto Lopez, 2B 

The defensive specialist got the majority of his reps batting sixth last season. Otto Lopez is much more of a slap hitter, which works well for him at loanDepot park with a large outfield. Groundballs are of concern for Lopez and it's what holds him back from hitting at the top of the lineup. A 54% groundball rate makes him susceptible to double plays. Batting behind strikeout-prone players may suit Otto well as he should be more likely to face pitchers with no runners on. 

 

7. Griffin Conine/Dane Myers, LF 

Another platoon here. Conine has a track record of handling right-handed pitchers better than lefties throughout his career. He spent majority of his brief time in the majors last season playing around this same spot in the seventh hole. Conine destroyed fastballs last season with a .639 SLG. Another power bat in the lower end of the lineup never hurts.

Dane Myers would find himself hitting against lefties. There's been nearly a 300-point difference in OPS during his major league career depending on the pitcher's handedness (.867 OPS and a 134 wRC+ vs. LHP). Just like others in this lineup, Dane hits the ball hard and quite often in the air, which against lefties will lead to positive outcomes. 

 

8. Nick Fortes/Liam Hicks, C 

In most modern lineups, the worst hitter will bat eighth as they statistically bat least often and it leaves the nine-hole to a decent hitter to get on base for the top of the lineup.

Nick Fortes will do most of the catching this season depending on who the starting pitcher is. With Liam Hicks being a lefty hitter, it does allow for the Marlins to do a platoon if they chose to, although they get value from Fortes out of his glove and control of the pitching staff. Fortes has been a better hitter vs. lefties in his major league career with a .677 OPS compared to a .596 OPS vs. righties.

A very unique profile behind the plate tempted the Marlins to select Hicks in the Rule 5 Draft this past winter. This spring, he had a .400 OBP, walking more than he struck out. However, Hicks does not hit for power. In 2024 at the Double-A level between two orgs, he slashed .278/.396/.385 vs. righties. Once Hicks becomes more at ease with the Marlins pitching staff, his usage may increase.

 

9. Derek Hill, CF 

More known for his defense in center field, Derek Hill adds some speed and decent power at the bottom of the lineup. Hill oddly enough was a .500 hitter in high-leverage situations in 2024 (14 AB). He will hopefully add a bit of spark and get on base for guys like Edwards and Bride. 

 

Lineup Comparison

Final Exhibition Game Lineup			Optimal Regular Season Lineup
SS	Xavier Edwards (S)		SS	Xavier Edwards (S)
CF	Derek Hill		DH	Jonah Bride
1B	Matt Mervis (L)		RF	Jesús Sánchez (L)
DH	Jonah Bride		3B	Connor Norby
RF	Kyle Stowers (L)		1B	Matt Mervis (L) / Eric Wagaman
2B	Otto Lopez		2B	Otto Lopez
LF	Griffin Conine (L)		LF	Griffin Conine (L) / Dane Myers
C	Nick Fortes		C	Nick Fortes / Liam Hicks (L)
3B	Graham Pauley (L)		CF	Derek Hill

The goal of lineup construction is setting up players for scoring opportunities. Manufacturing runs through walks and stealing bases is how the Marlins can look to out-produce their projected offensive stats. 

View full article

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

Wondering your thoughts about Mickey Monika, just released in Anaheim? He had a reputation as a sparkplug. 

[Sean McCormack]

5 hours ago, THOMAS JOSEPH said:

Wondering your thoughts about Mickey Monika, just released in Anaheim? He had a reputation as a sparkplug. 

Wouldn’t mind it personally. If he can play centerfield it may be an option to platoon with Derek Hill. But I suppose the Marlins would have to see very little future for Stowers at MLB level, or even VMJ. 

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

On 3/26/2025 at 3:41 PM, Sean McCormack said:

Wouldn’t mind it personally. If he can play centerfield it may be an option to platoon with Derek Hill. But I suppose the Marlins would have to see very little future for Stowers at MLB level, or even VMJ. 

Right. Sorry for the misspelling. I believe it should be "Moniak."