Why Adam Mazur could be next man up for Marlins following Luzardo trade

[Kevin Barral]

Jesús Luzardo would've been a lock for the 2025 Marlins starting rotation. In his absence, Mazur will be among the young arms competing to fill his spot.

Starting rotation depth was supposed to be a strength of the Miami Marlins entering last season, but that wasn't exactly the case. Injuries forced the team to make constant changes and the results were mediocre. In 2025, they may have to once again rely on inexperienced starters, especially following Sunday's trade that sent left-handed pitcher Jesús Luzardo to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for two prospects.

Following the trade, the projected rotation includes Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers and Braxton Garrett. With Eury Pérez rehabbing from the Tommy John surgery, the question is who will earn the fifth spot on Opening Day.

Valente Bellozo made 13 starts as a rookie, which ranked fifth on the Marlins behind Cabrera, Weathers and two pitchers who are no longer with the organization, Trevor Rogers and Roddery Muñoz. The soft-tossing right-hander was a big success story with a 3.67 ERA, but his 5.73 FIP suggests he's very unlikely to sustain that moving forward.

Former first-round draft pick Max Meyer made 11 total starts. He was demoted to Triple-A Jacksonville despite an April hot streak and slumped during the second half to finish with a 5.68 ERA.

However, in addressing the media on Sunday, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix mentioned two other names instead when discussing Miami's rotation: Adam Mazur and Robby Snelling. "We have a lot of depth there as well as a lot of high-end talent, so I'm really excited to see how it shakes out," said Bendix.

Mazur, 23, was one of four players acquired from the San Diego Padres in exchange for Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing. He has already seen time at the major league level, but the Padres rushed his development and the poor numbers reflected that (7.49 ERA, 6.23 FIP, 5.88 K/9 and 5.61 BB/9).

Following the trade, the Marlins assigned Mazur to AAA-Jacksonville. In eight starts, he posted a 5.21 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 9.00 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9. He looked more like his usual self in terms of good control, limiting opponents to zero walks in five of those starts.

Along with a high walk rate, Mazur struggled against MLB hitters because his fastball and curveball were getting crushed. The fastball, which averages 95.0 mph, was taken deep four times. He allowed a .333 batting average on it and an average exit velo of 93.5 mph with only a 13.4 whiff%. In a smaller sample, the curveball failed even more (.364 batting average, 93.9 mph exit velo and 8.3 whiff%).

It was encouraging to see Mazur's swing-and-miss improvement on both pitches during his Jumbo Shrimp stint. He added a little velocity and horizontal break to the curveball on his way to a 32.4 whiff%. His fastball velo remained the same as its whiff% went up to 19.1%. 

Mazur's slider is his signature pitch. The key is having enough trust in the rest of his arsenal to put him in strikeout situations, and he looks to be on the right track. Our own Isaac Azout will be following his progress closely after predicting him to make the Opening Day roster on the latest episode of Fish Unfiltered.

Snelling, 21, reached the AAA level at the very end of the 2024 season after a great showing in AA-Pensacola. Snelling's velocity was down compared to his 2023 breakout year, but the command of all his pitches was impressive after joining his new organization.

Snelling is a safe bet to attend big league camp, but it's a long shot that he starts the regular season in Miami given his lack of a 40-man roster spot and limited AAA experience.

Several other pitchers who are already on the 40-man could be stretched out as starters during spring training. Meyer was excellent last spring and is capable of bouncing back. Xzavion Curry and Anthony Veneziano both started regularly in the minors while Dax Fulton showed promise in that role before undergoing elbow surgery. Unless the Marlins spend to bring in a veteran, it should be an interesting competition.

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[Hans Herrera]

After the Sandy-Garrett-Eddy-Weathers quartet, to me, Bellozo-Meyer-Curry-Mazur should follow, in that order. 

I am positive that Meyer is way more talented than Bellozo, but Valente demonstrated effective last season and Meyer was on an innings limit. Maybe it can be smart to ease Max’s workload at the beginning of the season and then go full-load by June, or in case Eury has a setback.

I remember Curry in Cleveland having good stuff on his debut. Mazur need to be more solid in Jacksonville before joining the team, but hey, last year everyone got injured so I might get his shot soon than later.

[Slacker Mills]

I'm thinking that Snelling and Jacob Miller could stake claims to the rotation by midseason if needed. I'm casting a no vote for Bellozo and a very doubtful for Mazur.

[One Regend]

My thoughts on the rotation depth.

I don't see Bellozo as a real candidate to start games for Miami. He's a ticking time bomb just waiting to blow up on their faces. That 5.73 FIP perfectly encapsulates this. He got lucky last year. He's not gonna continue being this lucky.

Meyer flashed potential early on, got injured, and lost whatever made him effective sometime during the injury stint. He needs to rediscover what made him the best starting pitcher before demotion.

Adam Mazur could have potential. I'm counting his starts with the Padres as typical MLB first call-up jitters. It also didn't help the Padres rushed him to the majors. If developed properly, he could be a key rotation piece. The key word is IF.

Snelling feels very concerning. He might be another Cabrera type where he's so incredibly talented but can't land his pitches inside the broad side of the barn. He might honestly be a reliever risk. But I'd sooner trust him than trust Bellozo.

People say our pitching is our strong suit, but to me, it is mediocre at best. Beyond Sandy and Weathers, and maybe a mid-season Perez, I don't see anyone to get real excited for every 5th day. And we jettisoned our best relievers at the trade deadline, so our already shaky bullpen is even more shaky. I'm not going to buy into our pitching.

It's a tank year, regardless of what we have. It's time to embrace the tank.

[rurrusuno]

I'm in agreement with all the previous comments here. 2025 is officially our 5th rebuild in franchise history (1998, 2006, 2013, 2018). That last rotation spot is obviously up for grabs, but I think it'll be Eury's once he comes back. Right now, it'll either go to Max Meyer or Vicente Bellozo. I predict it'll go to Meyer.