3 Jesús Luzardo mock trade proposals

[Sean McCormack]

If the Marlins trade Jesús Luzardo this offseason, here's what could be coming back to South Florida in return.

The Chicago Cubs are trying to acquire Jesús Luzardo from the Miami Marlins, as has been reported by USA Today, 670 The Score and most recently The Athletic. They may be the most aggressive suitor for him, but there are other logical landing spots for the 27-year-old lefty. Even with Luzardo coming off a back injury, he has flashed front-of-the-rotation potential and holds significant value in the current starting pitching market. The Marlins must insist on getting controllable quality players in return.

Numbers in parentheses next to a player's name indicates where they're ranked in their team's farm system according to MLB Pipeline.

 

Chicago Cubs

Cubs receive: LHP Jesús Luzardo

Marlins receive: OF Owen Caissie (2) and LHP Jordan Wicks  

Owen Caissie, a 2020 second-round draft pick, was part of the deal that sent Yu Darvish to the Padres. He is ranked 34th overall among MLB prospects by MLB Pipeline.

Caissie spent all of 2024 in Triple-A where he posted a slash line of .278/.375/.472. and a 121 wRC+. He was 21 years old for the majority of the season and faced much older competition. Caissie shines with his power—he had the same max exit velocity as Jake Burger. The main area of concern is his 28% strikeout rate, though he does walk a bit with a 12% walk rate and does not swing and miss much in the zone.

The Marlins could stick Caissie in a corner outfield spot where he grades out average. 

Jordan Wicks is a former first-round pick who spent time between AAA and MLB this past season. He was put on the IL two separate times with an oblique strain. The Cubs value Wicks as rotation depth, but might be willing to part ways with him for a more established arm like Luzardo. 

Wicks throws seven pitches with only one grading out above league average, according to tjStuff+ model. He primarily throws a four-seam fastball paired with a changeup, combining to make up 71% of his total pitch usage. Wicks' fastball sits at 92 mph, but plays well off of his changeup which racked up a 42% whiff rate this past season at the MLB level. The lefty's slider is actually his highest-graded pitch.

Wicks has an underwhelming 5.02 ERA through the first 80 ⅔ innings of his major league career. Perhaps under the influence of new director of pitching Bill Hezel, the Marlins could unlock better results by utilizing more of his pitch mix.

 

In addition to the Cubs, I've come up with proposals involving two other potential playoff contenders who are seemingly reluctant to spend for frontline talent in free agency, but have enough prospect capital to acquire pitching depth via trade and have done business with the Marlins recently. In both cases, let's pair Luzardo with a quality reliever to expand the deal.

 

Baltimore Orioles

Orioles receive: LHP Jesús Luzardo and RHP Declan Cronin 

Marlins receive: OF Heston Kjerstad, SS Griff O'Ferrall (7), OF Austin Overn (16) and RHP Kevin Velasco 

Heston Kjerstad headlining this deal was the second overall pick in the 2020 draft. He entered 2024 as Baltimore's fifth-ranked prospect, but has since graduated from prospect eligibility. This past year in the inconsistent MLB playing time he received, Kjerstad posted a .253/.351/.394 slash line with a 43% hard-hit rate in 114 plate appearances. He is clearly overqualified for AAA with a 152 wRC+ and .601 slugging percentage.

A big-time bat with a track record of good plate discipline, Kjerstad is ready for a full chance at the MLB level. However, the O's have a log jam which only got deeper with the signing of Tyler O'Neill. With two minor league options left and less than a year of service time so far, Kjerstad could be a long-term contributor for the Marlins. 

The next two prospects were both taken early in the 2024 draft by the Orioles. Griff O'Ferrall is a well-balanced shortstop from the University of Virginia. What he lacks in power, he makes up for with a great plate approach and good defense. None of his tools are flashy, yet he is above average at every facet of the game besides power. 

Austin Overn is known for his elite defense in center field and eye-popping 80-grade speed. The Southern California native has had scouts' attention since his high school days and became arguably the best defensive outfielder in college baseball while at USC. What brings down Overn's potential is his lacking bat, especially his fringy power, although he did have a fast start to his pro career (.280/.398/.467 in 21 G at A/A+). Overn may be expendable for the O's because there are several comparable players who were recently drafted higher by the org such as Vance Honeycutt, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Jud Fabian. 

Finally, Kevin Velasco is still at the Orioles Dominican complex. Velasco turns 19 in January and had some impressive numbers last season in the DSL. He did not allow a home run, posted an ERA of 1.13 and a FIP of 2.20, the lowest FIP in the entire league among pitchers who worked at least 40 innings. The Venezuelan right-hander had an 11.7 K/9 and only walked 10 batters. 

 

Minnesota Twins

Twins receive: LHP Jesús Luzardo and LHP Andrew Nardi 

Marlins receive: OF Luke Keaschall (3), RHP C.J. Culpepper (12) and Competitive Balance Round A draft pick

The top prospect the Marlins would get in return is 2023 second-rounder Luke Keaschall, who is Pipeline's 63rd-ranked overall prospect. Keaschall broke out last season, posting a .916 OPS combined between A+ and AA. He has a great feel for the barrel and has competitive at-bats. Speed is another dimension of his game, stealing bags and playing all around the diamond. His power had an uptick in 2024, which wasn't a part of his game previously. Overall, Keaschall is a hit-over-power batter with a good approach at the plate.

The biggest question with Keaschall is where he will find a home defensively. He also recently underwent Tommy John surgery in August, but will be ready for big league camp in 2025.

C.J. Culpepper was a riser in the Twins org this year. The 2022 13th-round draft pick may be a hidden gem. Culpepper has a five-pitch mix with a fastball touching 97 mph. He combines this with a sweeper and a new cutter he started throwing which averages about 90 mph, along with a changeup and another type of curveball he throws less often. Missing about two months with a forearm strain, Culpepper only pitched 58 ⅓ innings in 2024. With a small amount of innings, he was still effective in them, posting a 3.55 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and a 2.8 BB/9.

Culpepper has a stocky build to him that should allow him to withstand a more aggressive inning total when healthy. With a deep arsenal that includes multiple above-average offerings, he can develop into a nice middle-of-the-rotation starter. 

This Comp-A pick is tentatively set to be the No. 33 overall selection in the 2025 draft. It would add to the Marlins' draft bonus pool and give them four total picks within the top 50. 

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[Slacker Mills]

Thanks for the trade proposals - my favorite kind of baseball writing. There are enough good OF prospects on other teams  (none on the Marlins of course) to build an OF in Miami. Luzardo, Weathers, and Garrett (if he can even lift his left arm) could land a few. However, now is definitely not the time to make those trades. Gotta wait for late spring or early season.

[2qbn]

That Caissie trade all day, which means it won't happen. :P 

Over on MLB rumors the Cubs fans want nothing to do with trading him away. I can see why, but it seems their FO is all in on getting back to the playoffs with that Tucker trade. Add Jesus, and if he stays healthy, they have a great shot. Should be interesting to see how this plays out, if at all.

[Slacker Mills]

While bballtradevalues has Weathers and Luzardo with about equal value, I could make a case for Weathers being the more serious trade candidate right now. He was much better than Luzardo last season and is seemingly on the rise.

[rurrusuno]

Good trade proposals. I still think the Cubs will be the trade partners with the Marlins for Luzardo, but I actually prefer that trade proposal with the Orioles.

It's interesting because I haven't read any rumors on the Orioles inquiring about him. They've been well known for drafting and developing hitters over the years, such as Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Anthony Santander, and Adley Rutschman. Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo look to be a part of their core in the near future too.

Each player that the Marlins would be receiving in this mock draft, plays a position that we have a need for right now. This trade would significantly boost the already improved farm system the Fish have. 

[Chad Turner]

41 minutes ago, Slacker Mills said:

While bballtradevalues has Weathers and Luzardo with about equal value, I could make a case for Weathers being the more serious trade candidate right now. He was much better than Luzardo last season and is seemingly on the rise.

I get the sell high mentality, but Weathers has 4 years of control left.  He will be cheap the next 2.  Sell him to start '27.  It's a shame Luzardo's value isn't peak right now but if teams are desperate for front line starters and willing to part with a top 100 prospect, then it's the correct move.  This might go into May before it gets done, similar to Arraez.  Let's pray Jesus is on fire before we betray him.  

[Slacker Mills]

Seriously, though, isn't Alcantara the pitcher that should be marketed if he comes out of spring training looking great?

[Slacker Mills]

Red Sox Projected Blockbuster Lands Marlins Star Jesús Luzardo In 4-Player Swap

[Slacker Mills]

My guess is that if the Marlins trade Luzardo during the offseason, the Cubs' Alcantara will be involved. Marlins could see him as the CF.