Marlins are biggest losers of MLB Draft Lottery, receive 7th overall pick in 2025

[Ely Sussman]

Explaining what the unfortunate results of Tuesday's draft lottery mean for Miami.

Coming off one of the worst seasons in franchise history, the Miami Marlins had tied for the best odds of winning the 2025 MLB Draft Lottery. But fortune did not favor the Fish on Tuesday as they dropped to seventh in the draft order.

Instead, the Washington Nationals received the No. 1 overall pick. They'll be followed by the Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates. Yes, two teams who finished above .500 in 2024 (the Mariners and Cardinals) jumped ahead of 100-loss Miami.

The Marlins had a 22.45% chance of winning the lottery. They were helped by the fact that the league-worst Chicago White Sox weren't eligible to win it this year because they are a revenue sharing payor club that received a lottery pick in the 2024 draft. The Athletics were also ineligible because no team (regardless of revenue sharing status) can receive lottery picks in three consecutive years. Despite those favorable conditions, they were still smitten by the lottery gods.

Due to their 2023 postseason berth, the Marlins were not eligible for the lottery last year. They received the 16th overall selection and used it on prep outfielder PJ Morlando.

This is the highest first-round draft position that the Fish have had since 2022 when they selected LSU's Jacob Berry with the No. 6 pick.

Here is how Baseball America currently ranks the top seven draft-eligible players in the 2025 class, at least one of whom is guaranteed to be on the board when it's Miami's turn to pick:

1. Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
2. Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS (OK)
3. Tyler Bremer, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
4. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
5. Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
6. Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson
7. Xavier Neyens, 3B, Month Vernon HS (WA)

In 2024, the seventh overall pick came with a $6,823,700 slot value. That figure should be slightly higher in 2025 and account for close to half of the Marlins' entire bonus pool. More so than falling in the draft order, the reduced pool is the biggest bummer from Miami's perspective. Again using 2024 as an example, the difference between No. 1 and No. 7 was $3,746,900 in slot value, money that could've been utilized in numerous ways to assemble the best possible draft class (it's not reserved specifically for the first-rounder).

Picks awarded by the lottery are only adjusted for round one. The order for the rest of the rounds goes by regular season record, so the Marlins will select third in each of those rounds (behind the White Sox and Rockies).

The MLB Draft will be held in Atlanta from July 13-15, overlapping with the All-Star break. It'll be Frankie Piliere's second time steering the ship as Marlins director of amateur scouting.

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[rurrusuno]

That’s unfortunate for a team that’s already in rebuild mode (even if ownership doesn’t want to admit it). The best news we could’ve hoped for was at least having a top 3 pick because at this point for the franchise, we can only look forward to the draft. 

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

These things fall under the "Serenity Prayer" title. 

The so-called slot money is insane. Doesn't the entire Marlins roster, save Sandy Alcántara, make less than six million dollars a year? What a microcosm of the MLB system. 

[One Regend]

The MLB Lottery results only prove to us that the Marlins can't have anything nice in the world. What a joke.

When the Cardinals, who are an organizational mess in their own right, picks higher than a team that deliberately threw away the entire season just for a chance at transcendent talent, you know your team is snakebitten.

I'm not going to watch or follow the 2025 MLB Draft. None of the projected 7th slot prospects are worth following, in my honest opinion. The Marlins Brass are going to try to hype it up, like usual, but I'm not going to buy it.

We needed an Ethan Holliday. Now we're not going to get him, or anyone that's on his level.

[Ely Sussman]

21 hours ago, THOMAS JOSEPH said:

The so-called slot money is insane. Doesn't the entire Marlins roster, save Sandy Alcántara, make less than six million dollars a year?

That is more an indictment of the Marlins than the draft system, in my opinion. The league has to properly incentivize athletes to play baseball professionally. The majority of early-round picks won't contribute enough to justify their bonuses, but the few who become steady big leaguers turn those into tremendously team-friendly deals.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

22 hours ago, Ely Sussman said:

That is more an indictment of the Marlins than the draft system, in my opinion. The league has to properly incentivize athletes to play baseball professionally. The majority of early-round picks won't contribute enough to justify their bonuses, but the few who become steady big leaguers turn those into tremendously team-friendly deals.

Perhaps.