Offishial News: Starting pitching market gets moving. Will Marlins take advantage?

[Ely Sussman]

Today's news roundup also includes an introduction to our Marlins ownership guide.

On Sunday in winter ball competition, OF Dane Myers stole a base off the bench, RF Troy Johnston went 1-for-5 with 1 RBI and INF Johnny Olmstead went 0-for-3 with a walk. Johnston, who is typically a first baseman, has now played four straight games in the corner outfield spots for Toros del Este.

More Marlins news and content below:

🔷 Introducing our complete Marlins ownership guide! Alex Carver, Alex Krutchik and I collaborated to summarize the tenures of Wayne Huizenga, John Henry, Jeffrey Loria and Bruce Sherman, including their accomplishments, shortcomings and controversies as stewards of the franchise.

🔷 Long-awaited renovations to Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium are underway. In time for the start of spring training, a new drainage system is being installed and the bullpen mounds are being moved from foul territory to beyond the outfield walls.

🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Japan's Munetaka Murakami announced that he will be coming to Major League Baseball after the 2025 season. The star slugger has averaged 37 home runs over the last six seasons, though he also perennially ranks among the Nippon Professional Baseball leaders in strikeouts. He turns 25 years old in February. The Mets have signed RHP Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million deal with an opt-out after the first year, while the Cubs and LHP Matthew Boyd have agreed on a two-year, $29 million deal. 

🔷 Every offseason, free agency shows us how desperate teams are for competent starting pitching. The contracts that Montas and Boyd got are robust for prototypical No. 4 starters who've had significant injury issues in the recent past. Their 2025 salaries will be comparable to Sandy Alcantara's and several times higher than anybody else on the Marlins pitching staff. Although there is no urgency to shop arms this offseason (like the arbitration-eligible Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett), their relative youth and affordability would make them attractive to any team.

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[Slacker Mills]

Teams will need rotation pieces even more desperately come late spring training. Luzardo, Garrett, Alcantara, and others will be able to demonstrate their effectiveness coming off injury.  If the Twins want to flip Royce Lewis for Luzardo right now, however, I'd make that deal. I'd even throw in Adam Mazur.

[Slacker Mills]

And yes, the Boyd and Montas contracts are ridiculous. Ryan Weathers is looking better than either of those guys. Maybe he could get us Royce Lewis.

[One Regend]

If anything, this is the perfect opportunity to shop Braxton Garrett and Jesus Luzardo.  I'm down on Garrett's longterm viability, so selling high on him now makes sense, with arbitration looming for him, and Jesus Luzardo is in his last arb year.

[rurrusuno]

11 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

Teams will need rotation pieces even more desperately come late spring training. Luzardo, Garrett, Alcantara, and others will be able to demonstrate their effectiveness coming off injury.  If the Twins want to flip Royce Lewis for Luzardo right now, however, I'd make that deal. I'd even throw in Adam Mazur.

Sandy Alcantara has to be the only untouchable on the starting rotation. No team will bite for him coming off TJ surgery. Also, he's owed $17.3 M the next couple of seasons after '25. Eury Perez too could be considered untouchable. I think Royce Lewis has potential to be a player to watch out for if he's given the opportunity to play around 120 games next season. 

I believe it'd be a mistake for us to get rid of Ryan Weathers now. He's not arbitration eligible yet and showed lots of improvement in '24. He dropped his ERA by nearly 3.0, increased his strikeouts, and allowed less walks, all while increasing his workload through innings pitched and allowing less runs. If things go well for him, he could have more wins than losses next season. 

2 hours ago, One Regend said:

If anything, this is the perfect opportunity to shop Braxton Garrett and Jesus Luzardo.  I'm down on Garrett's longterm viability, so selling high on him now makes sense, with arbitration looming for him, and Jesus Luzardo is in his last arb year.

I agree on Braxton Garrett and Jesus Luzardo. If we're out of it by the trade deadline and they're healthy, it would make sense to get a good deal out of them, but my guess would be that Jesus Luzardo gets traded first. Braxton Garrett doesn't have a contract as hefty so I could see the Fish retaining him for another year or two. Luzardo has another 2 years of arbitration left and Garrett has another 4 years left. 

[Hans Herrera]

10 hours ago, rurrusuno said:

Sandy Alcantara has to be the only untouchable on the starting rotation. No team will bite for him coming off TJ surgery. Also, he's owed $17.3 M the next couple of seasons after '25. Eury Perez too could be considered untouchable. I think Royce Lewis has potential to be a player to watch out for if he's given the opportunity to play around 120 games next season. 

I believe it'd be a mistake for us to get rid of Ryan Weathers now. He's not arbitration eligible yet and showed lots of improvement in '24. He dropped his ERA by nearly 3.0, increased his strikeouts, and allowed less walks, all while increasing his workload through innings pitched and allowing less runs. If things go well for him, he could have more wins than losses next season. 

I agree on Braxton Garrett and Jesus Luzardo. If we're out of it by the trade deadline and they're healthy, it would make sense to get a good deal out of them, but my guess would be that Jesus Luzardo gets traded first. Braxton Garrett doesn't have a contract as hefty so I could see the Fish retaining him for another year or two. Luzardo has another 2 years of arbitration left and Garrett has another 4 years left. 

I don't agree on Braxton and Luzardo because trading them now is definitely not selling them high. Both had significant injuries last season and Luzardo did not look good when he pitched. They have more questions than answers at the moment.

The Marlins will get the most return from either Weathers or Cabrera, as they are cheaper, younger, and with more pure stuff. Garrett and Luzardo have higher a floor, but also more health concerns. If I have to pick one to trade, I'll go with Weathers because if Eddy doesn't pan out as a starter, he'd be a hell of a closer.

Depending on how the season goes and the injury factor, I'd wait until a few starts from Eury Pérez to trade Luzardo. He should be on the trading block by June/July next season regardless but would be ideal if the Fish could get Eury going before that.