Why we can expect Andrew Nardi to bounce back from 2024 struggles

Kevin Barral · November 26, 2024

Nardi was excellent in his first full-length MLB season, but he followed it up with a rough 2024. The underlying metrics suggest his true talent is somewhere in between.

Lefty Andrew Nardi is the last man standing from the bullpen that pushed the 2023 Miami Marlins to the postseason. Nardi emerged as a great setup man that year, but by comparison, his 2024 season was a disappointment. He posted a 5.07 ERA in 49 ⅔ innings pitched, missing time at the end of the season after suffering a left elbow muscle injury. However, there is reason to believe that luck played a role in his struggles and his 2025 season can be much better.

The underlying numbers for Nardi were great. He posted a 2.76 xERA, 3.33 FIP and 3.35 xFIP, ranking in the 92nd percentile among MLB pitchers in Chase% and the 87th percentile in Whiff%. When he slumped early in the season, Marlins manager Skip Schumaker gave him a vote of confidence: "You feel like he's going to snap out of this thing. That's why we were giving him a shot in those leverage spots still with guys on base."

What made Nardi so valuable in 2023 was his ability to get outs after inheriting baserunners from his teammates. He only allowed five of 40 inherited runners (12.5%) to score against him, while the MLB average is 33%.

This past season, Nardi failed in many of those situations, letting 20 of his 36 inherited runners score (55.6%). He was charged with six blown saves compared to only one in 2023.

It's true that opponents were hitting the ball harder off of Nardi (average exit velocity rose from 84.6 mph to 88.2 mph) and putting it in the air more often (groundball rate dropped from 43.8% to 31.7%). That led to an increase in slugging. His fastball and slider went from being very effective pitches to being worth minus-four and minus-five runs, respectively, according to Baseball Savant.

Screenshot 2024-11-27 at 11.38.59 AM.png

That being said, his overall numbers suffered from the unfortunate timing of his mistakes.

Nardi was at his worst in March/April and August, entering the regular season and when dealing with his elbow injury. During the three months in between, he posted a 3.38 ERA and allowed only 31.3% of inherited runners to score. Even when including all months, he dominated in bases empty situations. Hitters slashed .192/.269/.309/.578 with a 38.5 K% when there weren't runners on base.

Nardi's results at the major league level have been inconsistent so far. Somewhere in between is the real Andrew Nardi, who is capable of being the top lefty in the Marlins bullpen. He will first need to prove that he can have success again with runners on base, but if that happens, he could be in the running for the team's closer job at some point in 2025.

View full article