Should Marlins target Jakob Junis in free agency?

[Kevin Barral]

Junis posted a career-low ERA this season and he's shown throughout his career that he can consistently throw strikes.

During the 2024 season, the Miami Marlins collapsed in large part because they did not have enough quality starting pitching depth. Earlier this week, some of the starters they used—Roddery Muñoz (17 GS), Adam Oller (8 GS), Darren McCaughan (5 GS) and Shaun Anderson (2 GS)—left the organization as waiver claims and free agents. To have any chance of success next year, upgrading in that area is extremely important, which is where Jakob Junis comes in. After a career year, let's discuss the pros and cons of the right-handed swingman.

 

Jakob Junis overview

* Previous teams: Kansas City Royals (2017-21), San Francisco Giants (2022-23), Milwaukee Brewers (2024) and Cincinnati Reds (2024)

* MLB career: 4.48 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 in 780.1 IP

* 2024 season: 2.69 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 0.85 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 1.1 BB/9 in 67.0 IP

* Entering age-32 season in 2025

 

More factors to consider

Nasty slider: Whether he is facing lefties or righties, the slider is Junis' main weapon. His spin rate on the pitch (2,545 RPM) was higher than ever this season and it continues to collect plenty of swing-and-miss for him. His slider had a plus-four run value in 2024 after being at 5 RV in 2023 and 6 RV in 2022.

Return of the four-seamer: Junis mostly abandoned his four-seam fastball in recent years, but his usage went up to 10.0% in 2024, especially after he got traded to the Reds in July. The results were great for him—in plate appearances ending with a four-seamer, opponents went 3-for-30 with nine strikeouts and zero extra-base hits.

Limited walks: Minimum 50 innings pitched, Jakob Junis had the third-fewest walks per nine in baseball at 1.07. The Marlins as a team had the fifth-highest BB/9. It's safe to assume that Junis would help in that department.

Injury history: After being a full-time starter throughout the 2019 season, Junis has spent time on the injured list during every season since then. Most recently, a right shoulder impingement kept him out for nearly half of 2024. He can provide quality innings, but not necessarily quantity.

Versatility: It would be a good problem for the Marlins to have if most of their starters who were injured this season stayed healthy in 2025. If there comes a point where Junis doesn't have a clear rotation spot, he can adapt. He has experience pitching in various roles and his production as a reliever has been just as good as what he's done when starting games.

 

Alternatives to Jakob Junis

Junis declined a $8M mutual option in favor of a $3M buyout to become a free agent. That tells us he's seeking more than $5M guaranteed on his next contract. In his Marlins offseason blueprint, our own Ely Sussman suggested signing right-hander Spencer Turnbull for a similar amount.

Miami's projected rotation without any trades or new signings would be Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Ryan Weathers, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera. Behind them on the depth chart there is Max Meyer, Valente Bellozo and Adam Mazur. The hope is that Eury Pérez returns from Tommy John surgery in the middle of the season.

Veteran starters would might be available on minor league deals include Patrick Corbin and Anthony DeSclafani.

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[Slacker Mills]

Seeing how a 4.50 ERA would be considered a disappointment for any of the starters you have projected, I don't see where hiring Junis would be helpful. I would prefer to see how Mazur, Snelling and Meyer fare in the spring once they receive tutelage from their new coaches, whomever they may be.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

Oller and Muñoz are disappointing because they did adequate jobs last year and were inexpensive. I'm not sure what the deal is with those decisions.

Bellozo—yes, keep him. There is no reason not to incorporate him into the initial staff, as it stands now.

Junis - ok. It's not a huge needle mover, but why not? I'll reiterate that Oller looked just fine in this vein and was already here. 

There are always surprise ST performances, injuries, and other deals before the O.D. roster is settled anyway.  

[One Regend]

The question will be if Jakob Junis would even accept a Minor League deal with a Spring Training invite after having what seems to be a career year. I'd lean towards no, honestly.