My 2024-25 Marlins offseason blueprint

[Ely Sussman]

Recommending a series of hypothetical roster moves and transactions for the Miami Marlins to make this winter (and providing the rationale behind them).

For the second consecutive year, I'm imagining how the Miami Marlins' offseason would go if I were in charge of baseball operations. 

So much has changed in a 12-month span. Last year's blueprint operated under this premise: "The Marlins have alienated their fans in the past by taking a significant step back following every postseason appearance. There needs to be some urgency about snapping that cycle in 2024, while also stopping short of depleting an already-weak farm system and accepting that [Bruce] Sherman's budget will be lower than that of most other MLB teams."

Instead, Peter Bendix was practically idle throughout the offseason, then as soon as adversity struck in the spring, he raced to the bottom, compiling as many long-term assets as possible. At 62-100, the Marlins finished with MLB's third-worst winning percentage. We could have an extensive debate about whether Bendix's approach was right or wrong, but those actions are irreversible now.

I'm not chasing the fantasy of 2025 playoff contention—sneaking into October would require numerous lucky breaks and the freedom to spend far more than Sherman has permitted in any of his previous seasons as principal owner. I will be striving for significant improvements at the major league level while recognizing that the Marlins could use additional minor league reinforcements in anticipation of really going for it a couple years down the road.

The blueprint below basically goes in chronological order from November through pre-Opening Day extension talks, concluding with an overview of what my version of the 2025 Marlins would look like.

 

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Post-World Series roster crunch

Down the stretch of the 2024 season, in the aftermath of trades and injuries, the Marlins were just trying to make it to the finish line. They promoted fringy minor leaguers and plucked whoever was available off the waiver wire. Some of these placeholders have already been squeezed off the 40-man roster. Others are about to face the same fate to make room for more impactful players.

As of this writing, the 40-man roster is full, including a lot of names who frankly have no future in Miami.

I'm adding the following players to the 40-man (each of these transactions would happen during the month of November): 

• Reinstate RHP Sandy Alcantara, LHP Braxton Garrett, LHP Jesús Luzardo, LHP Andrew Nardi and RHP Eury Pérez from the 60-day injured list

• Select pending minor league free agent RHP Elvis Alvarado 
• Select 1B Deyvison De Los Santos and INF Jared Serna to protect from the Rule 5 Draft

The IL reinstatements should be self-explanatory. Each of those five pitchers could have a significant positive impact on the 2025 Marlins, although Pérez is expected to miss the first few months of the season while completing his Tommy John surgery rehab.

In 2024, Alvarado was the hardest thrower in the Marlins organization. He performed great for Triple-A Jacksonville as a high-leverage reliever (2.79 ERA, 3.84 FIP and .195 BAA in 48.1 IP). Poor control will probably preclude him from MLB success, but what if a full spring training under the tutelage of a new pitching coach leads to a mechanical breakthrough that allows him to find the zone more consistently? Worth a shot.

De Los Santos and Serna are ranked No. 3 and No. 6, respectively, on the Fish On First Top 30.

I also seriously contemplated protecting Dax Fulton (FOF #15 prospect) from the Rule 5. The tall left-hander missed most of 2023 and all of 2024 following elbow surgery, but he isn't that far removed from looking like a long-term starting rotation piece. There is some precedent for pitchers in his precise situation being Rule 5'd. All factors considered, I'm willing to bet that the other teams will pass on him.

To accommodate the aforementioned players on the 40-man, here's who I would place on waivers: 

• RHP Shaun Anderson 
• RHP Lake Bachar 
• RHP Mike Baumann 
• UTIL David Hensley 
• RHP Darren McCaughan 
• C Jhonny Pereda 
• RHP Michael Petersen 
• RHP Sixto Sánchez 
• LHP Josh Simpson 

Sixto Sánchez helped the Marlins to a 2020 postseason berth with 39 impressive innings. Derailed by shoulder issues, he has pitched a combined 37 ⅔ professional innings in the four seasons since then with severely diminished stuff. Despite his top prospect pedigree, it is irrational to expect anything from him moving forward.

Simpson is the toughest cut from this group. He has posted great strikeout numbers throughout his minor league career and would have certainly debuted out of the Marlins bullpen this season if not for an elbow injury. However, the quality and command of his fastball was lousy coming back from the injury. While there is still hope for the lefty reliever, he doesn't currently merit a 40-man spot. As a 2019 draft pick, Simpson still has a year of organizational control remaining if he clears waivers, so he wouldn't be able to elect minor league free agency (all of the other players in this group can).

Bachar was another close call. He made 10 appearances for the Marlins in September and only allowed earned runs in one of them. It was ultimately a decision between him and George Soriano, both right-handed relievers with four-seamer/slider/changeup arsenals. Soriano is four years younger and I like his upside more.

We enter the meat of the offseason with this as the 40-man roster:

 

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Free agency

• RHP Spencer Turnbull (1 YR/$6M, 2026 club option)
  • $5M in 2025 and $10M club option for 2026 ($1M buyout)
• LHP Matt Moore (1 YR/$2.5M)
  • up to $2.5M in performance bonuses for games pitched
• OF Derek Hill (MiLB deal)
• 1B José Abreu (MiLB deal)
• LHP Patrick Corbin (MiLB deal)
• RHP Shintaro Fujinami (MiLB deal)
• C Will Banfield (MiLB deal)

In an alternate universe, the Los Angeles Dodgers get knocked out in the NLDS and Walker Buehler is amenable to signing a one-year, incentive-laden contract. However, in our reality, he thrived in the later rounds of the postseason to propel himself out of my price range.

So I'm pivoting to Turnbull with the intent of using him as Miami's No. 5 starter. He was an April sensation for the 2024 Philadelphia Phillies before getting squeezed out of their veteran-laden rotation. Albeit in a tiny sample, his new sweeper was fantastic. Turnbull did not make another MLB appearance after suffering a right lat strain in late June, but he was fully recovered from the injury by season's end. He'll be 32 years old next season.

The Marlins bullpen quietly performed well even after numerous trade deadline subtractions. Talented arms could still benefit from veteran guidance. Moore has pitched more MLB innings (1,142.2 IP) than every other member of Miami's projected 2025 bullpen combined, and he's only a year removed from pitching well as a high-leverage guy. He'd be an obvious July trade candidate.

I'm going to reluctantly designate Derek Hill for assignment to make room for one of these free agents, but I anticipate him clearing waivers. Once he does, I will outbid the competition to bring him back by giving him the inside track to crack the Opening Day roster and a $900k salary if he does (significantly above the MLB minimum).

If Abreu and Corbin actually have something left in the tank, awesome. Starting roles would be farfetched, but potentially they could contribute as a pinch-hitter and lefty relief specialist, respectively. If not, it will be valuable to have them in Jupiter anyway. Both come highly regarded as clubhouse leaders.

Fujinami is another Alvarado type who lights up the radar gun. Merely throwing 60% of his pitches for strikes would be a win.

As I feared, Banfield's offensive "breakout" in 2023 was an anomaly. His production with Triple-A Jacksonville this past season (73 wRC+) was much more aligned with his disappointing MiLB career norms. However, I believe in his defense and intangibles behind the plate. He's well-suited to be No. 3 on the 2025 catching depth chart.

 

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Trades

• Trade RHP Edward Cabrera to the New York Mets for INF Ronny Mauricio and a player to be named later
• Trade C Nick Fortes, OF Jacob Berry and LHP Anthony Veneziano to the Minnesota Twins for C Christian Vázquez and LHP Dasan Hill

It is not reflected in his overall numbers (4.95 ERA, 4.68 FIP and .227 BAA in 96.1 IP), but Edward Cabrera took a baby step forward in 2024. The lone constant in Miami's starting rotation during the months of July, August and September, he "gave his team a chance to win" in 12 of those 15 starts. Cabrera threw more first-pitch strikes than ever before and gradually boosted his fastball usage (an adjustment I've spent several years clamoring for).

That being said, I don't see a future where Cabrera becomes a consistent, impactful starter. He perennially misses significant chunks of the season due to injury. His high walk rate is exacerbated by bad individual defense. A potential conversion to relief work is intriguing, but I would rather part ways while there are other teams still dreaming on him "putting it all together" as a starter and willing to send back the appropriate compensation.

The Mets and Marlins have been frequent trade partners in recent years despite occupying the same division. Each of New York's three most-used starters from this season just became free agents, which makes rotation depth the club's primary concern.

Turning 24 in April, the switch-hitting Mauricio got his first taste of the majors in September 2023, slashing .248/.296/.347 with a 79 wRC+ in 108 plate appearances. He impressed with his power and throwing arm, but there is the risk that he'll chase outside the strike zone too often to reach base at a respectable clip. His durability is a concern—11 months removed from ACL surgery, Mauricio still has not resumed baseball activities. Originally developed as a shortstop, he gained some familiarity with second base, third base and left field when he was last healthy.

The quality of the player to be named later is contingent on whether Cabrera is on the Mets Opening Day active roster. If he makes it, the Marlins get one of New York's selections from Day 3 of the 2024 MLB Draft; if another injury sidelines him, they get a Dominican Summer League lottery ticket. On the Marlins' side, Vidal Bruján is my Ronny Mauricio insurance. If Mauricio wows in spring training as both a hitter and versatile fielder, then Bruján—who is out of minor league options—would be a DFA candidate. 

Before arriving at the Mauricio idea, I tossed around a possible framework involving Jeff McNeil, prospects and cash. The intention would've been to use McNeil as Miami's primary designated hitter, occasional second baseman and main pinch-hitter on days when he isn't in the lineup. In the end, I don't think the Mets are desperate enough to unload the homegrown former All-Star who could still contribute to a playoff contender in a part-time capacity even as he declines.

On the other hand, the Minnesota Twins are desperate to move money around. They finished fourth in the AL Central standings despite being arguably the most talented team in the division and their payroll is restricted during an ownership transition.

My largest expenditure of the 2024-25 offseason will be absorbing the $10M owed to Vázquez in the final year of his contract. He and Fortes have been eerily similar players over the past two seasons. Fortes is under club control through 2028, but I'm fine forfeiting that for the more accomplished 34-year-old whose expiring contract allows for a smooth transition to Agustín Ramírez and Joe Mack as Miami's catchers of the future.

The most precious asset involved in this five-player deal is LHP Dasan Hill. The 6'5" teenage Texan was selected with the 69th overall pick in the MLB Draft. Ranked as Minnesota's No. 18 prospect according to Twins Daily, Hill oozes projectability, though we've yet to see him pitch in a professional setting.

Former Marlins first-rounder Jacob Berry recovered from a horrifying April/May slump and reached Triple-A. He's a skilled hitter, but I don't think that his other tools are good enough to sustain anything more than a replacement-level career. Let's assume the Twins are more bullish on him.

Through 14 MLB appearances (all in relief), Veneziano has a 2.87 ERA, 3.24 FIP and .290 BAA. His left-handedness would help balance out the Twins' righty-heavy pitching staff.

 

Contract extensions

• RHP Calvin Faucher (5 YR/$14.5M, 2030 club option)
  • $1M in 2025, $2M in 2026, $3M in 2027, $4M in 2028, $4M in 2029 and $6M club option for 2030 ($500k buyout)

It's challenging to identify extension candidates on this Marlins roster when so many of the players just began their major league careers or recently suffered injuries (or both). I am generally opposed to making long-term commitments to relievers, but Faucher is an exception.

In 53 ⅔ innings at the big league level this season, Faucher did not allow a single home run. Prior to his September shoulder impingement, he was impressing in his audition to be Miami's closer. Atypical for a reliever, he uses four distinct pitches and recorded at least 10 strikeouts with each of them.

Offering a $14.5M guarantee would be extremely tempting for somebody who was an afterthought at the time of his acquisition. The contract structure buys out all of his pre-arb and arbitration years and include an option for what would've been his first free agent year.

From the team's perspective, I believe the timing is appropriate because Faucher could be Super Two-eligible in 2026. He'll get expensive quickly if he proves to be closer material; even if he falls short of that bar, it doesn't take much production to justify this pay day.

 

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How the pieces fit together

Players that I acquired during the offseason are underlined and italicized.

 

This group (plus the dead money owed to Avisaíl García) would combine for a payroll in the $85M range, significantly less than 2024's season-opening total.

The projected starting rotation would be Alcantara, Luzardo, Weathers, Garrett and Turnbull, with Pérez and Robby Snelling vying for spots by July. Expect at least one of those veterans to be traded by the deadline. Come August, the Marlins could have a top-five farm system in baseball.

I'm skeptical of the defensive alignment with Edwards at shortstop and Norby at third base, but they should have long leashes to get acclimated. There would be a lot of platooning in the outfield with Jesús Sánchez coming closest to everyday at-bats between left field and DH starts. Sánchez is another likely trade deadline departure.

Even with a heavy reliance on young, inexperienced players late in the season, I think the Marlins would eclipse 70 wins.

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[Slacker Mills]

Dax Fulton is a must-protect prospect.

No way I trade Cabrera. He could very well be one of the team's top pitchers next season.Same goes for Luzardo. He, along with Alcantara, Garrett, Cabrera and Weathers make up the rotation to start the 2025 season. Mazur, Snelling and Meyer are in the wings.

No way I protect Stowers, Hill or Conine. Brujan has disrproven himself over and over.

[Slacker Mills]

For me, the team would look a whole lot better if Teel had been drafteded over Noble Meyer. How in the hell do you pass on anther Adley Rutschman?

[Jhulgzz]

Really enjoyed this

[Chad Turner]

44 minutes ago, Slacker Mills said:

Dax Fulton is a must-protect prospect.

No way I trade Cabrera. He could very well be one of the team's top pitchers next season.Same goes for Luzardo. He, along with Alcantara, Garrett, Cabrera and Weathers make up the rotation to start the 2025 season. Mazur, Snelling and Meyer are in the wings.

No way I protect Stowers, Hill or Conine. Brujan has disrproven himself over and over.

I'm not sure we have to protect Dax.  Who is going to carry him for a full year on their MLB roster coming off TJS?  We are the only team that would (Campbell, Pop).  

I could see a starter traded.  Not sure which one, if any, this offseason.  I would need a big haul and I'm not sure who would net one.  The deadline would be a better time with Eury coming back around then.  I could see us parting with Sandy, Brax, and/or Luzardo at that time.  

I agree that Stowers, Hill, Conine, and Brujan have little value, but so do most of the 70 players we marched out there.  It's very hard to guess which ones they keep.  

[Slacker Mills]

27 minutes ago, Chad Turner said:

I'm not sure we have to protect Dax.  Who is going to carry him for a full year on their MLB roster coming off TJS?  We are the only team that would (Campbell, Pop).  

I could see a starter traded.  Not sure which one, if any, this offseason.  I would need a big haul and I'm not sure who would net one.  The deadline would be a better time with Eury coming back around then.  I could see us parting with Sandy, Brax, and/or Luzardo at that time.  

I agree that Stowers, Hill, Conine, and Brujan have little value, but so do most of the 70 players we marched out there.  It's very hard to guess which ones they keep.  

That's an entirely fair assessment!

[One Regend]

I could also see the Marlins squeeze someone off the 40-man just to protect Dax. It's going to be a lost year anyways, so what's one dead 40 man slot gonna hurt? If they were actually competing, I would see otherwise. The extra player I'd then cut would probably be Vidal Brujan. He had a hot first 2 months, but ended up playing himself out of baseball since.

Luzardo is all but a lock to be traded. Braxton Garrett might get some rumors as well. If Edward Cabrera overperforms, he's definitely getting traded at the deadline. I think Sandy might stay because Sherman needs some name to stay on the team so he can get jersey and ticket sales, but I imagine he's gone the moment a rising star arrives from the farm system.

I'd have to say Ely is being extremely generous by calling this a 70 win team. I could see this team having a worse record than we did in 2024. But if we do, I'd say it's part of the plan.

[Stanley J Makowski]

22 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

Dax Fulton is a must-protect prospect.

No way I trade Cabrera. He could very well be one of the team's top pitchers next season.Same goes for Luzardo. He, along with Alcantara, Garrett, Cabrera and Weathers make up the rotation to start the 2025 season. Mazur, Snelling and Meyer are in the wings.

No way I protect Stowers, Hill or Conine. Brujan has disrproven himself over and over.

 

[Stanley J Makowski]

23 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

Dax Fulton is a must-protect prospect.

No way I trade Cabrera. He could very well be one of the team's top pitchers next season.Same goes for Luzardo. He, along with Alcantara, Garrett, Cabrera and Weathers make up the rotation to start the 2025 season. Mazur, Snelling and Meyer are in the wings.

No way I protect Stowers, Hill or Conine. Brujan has disrproven himself over and over.

 

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

I enjoyed the article. Predictions and GM-for-a-day articles are fun.

I see that the Cardinals selected Muñoz from waivers and saw on X that Oller is opting for free agency. I liked both since the assumed starting staff composition is far from certain (not even including possible trades). 

Hill seems solid for the roster (and cheap) unless there are big ST breakouts or trades.

I think Bendix will try to coax (pray for) a productive first half from Cabrera to flip him at the deadline. If he appears to have finally turned the corner, there will be quite a few teams eyeballing him. 

Bruján looks ok in the Dominican League. He has a lot of versatility, so I think he will be on the Opening Day roster. He's cheap, as well. 

I guess it's de rigueur to bring in the has-been cast of characters like Abreu and Corbin to ST. Good Lord, though, I dislike the thought of a piecemeal guy taking ABs from developing players. Oh, well. 

Lastly, I also like Faucher and agree with your reluctance to commit long-term/big bucks to relievers. It's moot, though, since there is the proverbial snowball's chance the Marlins make an offer like that.

The final round of bleedouts from poor contracts in 2025 leaves only the Loria/Samson legacy payouts for Stanton starting in 2026. Bendix has cleaned the slate for his master plan. Ok, Bob Ross, let's see your masterpiece taking shape before our eyes. Lol. 

This is going to be a fascinating offseason. Two teams are on the cusp of playing in MiLB stadiums. Lots of the usual busts (Lynn or Drury, anyone?) and the predictable massive overpays looming on the FA market. Who will be the next Rendon, Glen Davis, Prince Fielder, Strasburg, Corbin, or Canó? One thing is for sure, the owners never learn. They'll always provide plenty of stupidity fodder. But with the TV deal uncertainty, there will be restraint! Sure.

Teams for sale as a few older hands or their heirs try to get the hell out with maximum returns before the next vicious CBA debacle. 

My interest in the on-field play itself continues to wane, but I will stay here as a Marlins fan and FOF subscriber to see how the Miami experiment plays out. I'm certainly not going to watch the freaking WBNA and I'm too old to join the Peace Corps. Have a pleasant weekend.