Pending free agent Walker Buehler just pitched himself out of Miami

[Ely Sussman]

Prior to his last two starts, Buehler looked like the ideal 2025 reclamation project for a team like the Marlins. Unfortunately for them, he has recaptured his old form just in time to boost his earning power.

Three weeks ago, pitching Game 3 of the NLDS against the San Diego Padres, Walker Buehler still looked broken. Appearing in the playoffs for the first time since 2021, the outing was a continuation of Buehler's frustrating regular season. He allowed the Padres to plate six runs in the bottom of the second inning—that remains the highest-scoring half-inning by any team during the 2024 postseason. Buehler gutted through five frames to take some of the burden off his fatigued teammates in the Los Angeles bullpen, but he struck out zero batters in the process. The Dodgers lost, 6-5, and were set to face elimination.

If the Padres had finished the job by winning either of the next two games, Buehler would have entered free agency with zero momentum. Combining his 2024 regular season with his NLDS clunker, the fallen star had a 5.71 ERA in 80 ⅓ innings pitched. Buehler would've been widely coveted due to his pre-Tommy John surgery track record—career 3.02 ERA, 3.26 FIP and .212 BAA from 2017-2022—but only as a buy-low candidate on a one-year "pillow contract" that practically any team could afford. Yes, even the Miami Marlins.

I had composed an elaborate "Marlins offseason blueprint" which included taking a $14M flier on Buehler for 2025. That article will still be published by Fish On First shortly, but with a major revision because it's no longer realistic to expect the 30-year-old to be attainable for such a modest guarantee. Buehler has made two more starts since the Padres let LA to wiggle off the hook, showing legitimate flashes of his former self. Even in a microscopic sample, that changes the math surrounding his free agency.

The short-handed Dodgers reluctantly started Buehler in NLCS Game 3 and World Series Game 3 against the New York Mets and New York Yankees, respectively. Both starts came on the road in hostile environments...well, environments that would have been hostile if his opponents did anything to get their fans feeling hopeful.

Buehler silenced them. After having authored just one scoreless game all year, he held the Mets and Yankees off the scoreboard when it mattered most. Four total trips through their lineups, zero runs allowed. If not for an Alex Verdugo garbage-time home run, both games would've been shutouts for the Dodgers pitching staff.

These results alone do not get a player paid. MLB front offices are smart enough to recognize when somebody is benefitting from lucky breaks.

In Buehler's case, the quality of his stuff has meaningfully ticked up. He leaned heavily on his breaking balls to halt the Mets' momentum. At Yankee Stadium, he turned to his four-seam fastball for whiffs in key situations.

The resilient Dodgers bought Buehler just enough time to make crucial adjustments before hitting free agency. Whether he ultimately re-signs with the team that drafted and developed him or finds a better offer elsewhere, the terms of that offer will be a lot more player-friendly than they would've been following an NLDS elimination.

My aforementioned $14M estimate was based on the contract Luis Severino signed with the Mets last offseason. Severino secured performance bonuses based on games started, but had no security beyond that single season.

Thanks to his final nine brilliant innings (and the underlying pitch data from those outings), Buehler is assured of getting a larger guarantee. If he settles for his own one-year prove-it deal with no strings attached, I expect it to be in the $20M range. More likely, he'll get a backloaded multi-year commitment that includes an opt out after the 2025 campaign.

At the start of October, I genuinely thought Buehler was an affordable and appropriate fit for the Marlins. The risk/reward equation was just right for a last-place team with payroll flexibility that dreamt of riding his bounce-back season to a much-improved record or (more realistically) flipping him at the trade deadline for prospects who could propel the quality of their farm system from solid to great. However, he's now poised to enter negotiations with a lot more leverage than previously thought. The Marlins will inevitably get outbid (if they even bother to make a formal offer at all).

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[TheMadRussian]

The headline made me laugh.  That would have been a great deal, especially if he came back to form before the trade deadline - that would have brought a lot back!