Should Marlins target Harrison Bader in free agency?

[Ely Sussman]

The veteran center fielder would bolster a Marlins defense that ranked among MLB's worst in 2024.

Fresh off a long postseason run with the New York Mets, Harrison Bader is set to become a free agent.

Could Bader be a fit for the Miami Marlins entering 2025?

 

Harrison Bader overview

• Previous teams: St. Louis Cardinals (2017-2022), New York Yankees (2022-2023), Cincinnati Reds (2023) and New York Mets (2024)
• MLB career: .242/.305/.392 slash line and 13,1 fWAR in 778 games
• 2024 season: .236/.284/.373 slash line and 1.3 fWAR in 138 games
• Entering age-31 season in 2025

 

More factors to consider

Defense: Center field is the only position Bader has played since August 2018 when he got his first opportunity to be an everyday starter, and he remains remarkably consistent there. From his rookie year onward, Bader has perennially ranked in the 90th percentile or higher in outs above average, according to Baseball Savant. That includes 10 OAA (95th percentile) this season. He recorded only one outfield assist in over 1,000 innings as a Met, but he compensated for that with his elite range. Meanwhile, Marlins center fielders combined for only 1 OAA in 2024 (ranked 23rd out of 30 teams).

Offensive drop-off: Even at his peak, the inconsistency of Bader's bat prevented him from sticking as an everyday guy throughout a full season. He is now pretty far removed from sniffing league-average production. Each of the last three seasons, he has posted a sub-.300 on-base percentage with an overall wRC+ of 85 or under. Bader was practically an automatic out this past August/September, hence why he seldom stepped to the plate during the postseason. There is hope that he could recapture some of his early-career form with a more disciplined plate approach.

Platoon splits: Bader historically hits for good power against left-handed pitching. With the platoon advantage, he has a career slash line of .249/.315/.461 (109 wRC+) with 26 home runs in 676 plate appearances. He's just very volatile from year to year. 

Postseason experience: Although his direct impact on the Mets' October success was minimal, at least Bader was along for the ride. He has played in five of the last six MLB postseasons with three different clubs. As currently constructed, the Marlins do not have anybody on their roster who knows what it's like to win a division title or reach a league championship series. Bader provides intangible value from that standpoint. Come the 2025 trade deadline, contenders—assuming the Marlins aren't one themselves—could take that into account when shopping for reliable role players.

Price: After earning a $10.5M salary in 2024, Bader seems to be in line for a slight pay cut. Looking back at the 2022-23 offseason, I see the one-year contracts signed by Adam Duvall ($7M guaranteed) and Kevin Kiermaier ($9M) as close comps. Because Bader is younger than they were, let's go with the higher number. Would the Marlins be willing to bring in the journeyman on a one-year, $9M deal?

 

Alternatives to Harrison Bader

The Marlins have internal options who could be auditioned in center field instead, including Dane Myers, Kyle Stowers, Derek Hill, Javier Sanoja and Victor Mesa Jr. They all have Triple-A experience, but several would have to go back down to Jacksonville when the season begins if Bader was signed. That's fine, in my opinion. "Let the kids play" does not need to mean "only play kids" when realistically, none of them profile as everyday regulars at that position. Over the course of the season, hopefully they exceed expectations and then Bader's role can be adjusted accordingly.

This free agent class is thin on notable alternatives to Bader. Cody Bellinger would be the clear No. 1 center fielder if he decides to opt out of his Chicago Cubs contract. It's safe to assume the Marlins won't be paying what it takes for him. Other than that, veterans Manuel Margot and Michael A. Taylor could be had on very cheap one-year deals.

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

I enjoyed the article. It's always fun to talk about possibilities, especially in the offseason. I put in a vote for our current stable. Save the money, because adding Bader won't move the needle while taking ABs from Myer, Stowers, and Hill. He certainly isn't a value anywhere in your anticipated price range for the Marlins. I figure all three of these guys are on the roster barring something weird, at a combined price half of a Bader deal, and we need full-season assessments for the Stowers and Myer. Hill is an excellent, inexpensive outfield versatility asset. I see Bader as superfluous and overpriced for the Marlins.

[One Regend]

I see no value in Derek Hill. Might as well see what Victor Mesa Jr has in the tank. I see Stowers and Dane Myers as COF types.

Either way, it's going to be a tank year. So we're not going anywhere regardless of what moves the needle.

[1993 fan from start]

After reading stats from baseball-reference no.  Don't want to over pay for a guy who may hit 235 BA, . have 6 HR in Marlins stadium

 Victor Mesa Jr offence scare me as a long term player.

 

If you are looking at cheap of option can't  go wrong talking about Miguel Andujar.

 

[One Regend]

On 10/24/2024 at 11:44 AM, 1993 fan from start said:

After reading stats from baseball-reference no.  Don't want to over pay for a guy who may hit 235 BA, . have 6 HR in Marlins stadium

 Victor Mesa Jr offence scare me as a long term player.

 

If you are looking at cheap of option can't  go wrong talking about Miguel Andujar.

Miguel Andujar's defense in LF is dreadfully bad. -1 DRS and -7 OAA for a position that's less defensively demanding is not what you want for a team in a rebuild. I'd rather see Connor Norby there. While he also has defensive questions, he's far younger, more controllable, and has more offensive upside.

We could get Harrison Bader, yes, but is he that much better than Victor Mesa Jr? Sure, he has outstanding defense, but that's literally all he has going for him. I'd rather not pay the extra money for him, and I'd personally run Victor Mesa Jr out there. We can't keep him toiling in AAA for a team that's likely going to lose another 100+ games. Might as well see what he's got left in the tank.