Why A.J. Puk should have even higher trade value than Hunter Harvey

Ely Sussman · July 17, 2024

Big Fish Small Pod for Wednesday, July 17

Right-hander Hunter Harvey has been the most impactful relief pitcher to change teams so far this trade season. Ely Sussman explains why the Miami Marlins should expect an even stronger return if they decide to move A.J. Puk.

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As Marlins fans surely remember, Puk broke camp in the Marlins starting rotation after a great spring training. It was a worthwhile experiment, but failed miserably. The tall lefty's velocity plummeted in an expanded role as did his control. Puk landed on the injured list after four sloppy outings and re-emerged as a reliever in mid-May.

Rather than looking at Puk's overall 2024 stats, I'd say combining his last two seasons while filtering out his short-lived starter audition is more relevant to how he's being viewed on the trade market. When you do that (via FanGraphs), he and Harvey are eerily similar:

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Both are hard-throwing 29-year-olds with lots of high-leverage experience, including some in save situations. Harvey's salary is slightly higher this season and Puk comes with an additional year of club control (arbitration-eligible through 2026). Puk's injury history is more worrisome, but his left-handedness is in shorter supply and his performance is peaking at the perfect time (0.00 ERA and 0.98 FIP in last 10 appearances).

All things considered, the Harvey return that Washington received—3B Cayden Wallace and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (39th overall pick)—should not be enough to pry Puk away prior to the July 30 MLB trade deadline. The Marlins are justified in setting a steep asking price.

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