2024 Trade Deadline: Jazz Chisholm Jr. player breakdown, potential fits

[Kevin Barral]

If he gets dealt this July, Chisholm is expected to bring back the biggest return of any Miami Marlins trade chip.

These next few weeks will be active for the Miami Marlins leading up to the July 30 MLB trade deadline. They are prepared to trade established veterans in exchange for prospects who can help them in the future.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is the team's top all-around position player. Entering Monday. Chisholm is slashing .255/.326/.407 this season with 10 home runs, 40 RBIs and a 105 wRC+. Those numbers line up very closely with the 26-year-old's career averages. Chisholm is still 2.5 seasons away from free agency, which takes away the urgency for the Marlins to move him now, but as Craig Mish has reported for the Miami Herald, "there is a growing belief Chisholm will be traded...this is the first time there has been genuine interest in Chisholm as injuries, and his personality have kept other clubs wondering what they would be getting in return. It looks like Miami is very much listening."

Let's take a complete look at Chisholm as a trade candidate.

 

Positives

Unlike past seasons, Chisholm has not spent any time on the injured list in 2024. He has seen action in 87 of the first 90 Marlins games, well on pace to set a career high in that category. That availability has allowed him to put up 1.4 fWAR, the highest total for any Marlins player.

Chisholm's combination of offensive tools are hard to find elsewhere. As long as he is on the field, he is a fast and valuable baserunner. He has also above-average raw power.

One of the biggest improvements that Chisholm has made throughout his career is hitting against left-handed pitching. He rarely started against lefties during his 2022 All-Star season and struggled when he got the opportunity. In 2024, he is slashing a career-best .277/.342/.393/.734 with two home runs and 16 RBIs.

 

Chisholm does not get intimidated in high-leverage situations. His production under those conditions has been excellent this season, slashing .357/.439/.557/.996 with three home runs and 23 RBIs. It's been a similar story with runners in scoring position where he ranks 10th among MLB qualifiers in wRC+, according to FanGraphs.

Defensively, Chisholm was regarded as a future shortstop when he first reached the majors. Second base then became his main position. Despite no previous experience in the outfield, he learned to play center field entering 2023. The versatility to contribute at each of those spots is valuable and makes it easier for him to fit in with a contending team's roster.

 

Negatives

Chisholm's counting stats are impressive, but he is not hitting for as much power as he did in the past. The adjustments to his two-strike approach that have improved his strikeout rate also involve swinging for the fences less often. Last season, for example, Chisholm homered six times in two-strike counts; he has done so only once in 2024.

Chisholm's hard-hit percentage has fallen to the lowest of his career at 36.8%. That has impacted his average exit velocity, which ranks in the 40th percentile among MLB qualifiers, according to Baseball Savant.

Also, Chisholm's efficiency as a base-stealer is not ideal. He's gone from a 88% success rate in 2023 to only 68% this season (25 attempts in both years).

Defensive metrics had a mixed opinion of Chisholm's center field defense in 2023: plus-four outs above average, but minus-nine DRS. There has not been clear improvement in 2024 (0 OAA and -6 DRS). Although Chisholm has plenty of experience in the infield, the Marlins have used him exclusively in CF since his conversion. That makes it difficult for interested teams to know what quality of defense to expect from him if they move him back.

Finally, just because Chisholm has avoided the IL this season does not guarantee that he will stay healthy moving forward. During his Marlins tenure, he's been sidelined by foot, hamstring, back, oblique and shoulder issues.

 

Potential Landing Spots

Right away, the Los Angeles Dodgers stand out. The Dodgers have gotten terrible production at the plate from their center fielders this season. They are motivated to chase a World Series title right now and have a top-tier farm system that allows them to make a fair offer to the Marlins for Chisholm's services.

The Seattle Mariners desperately need offense just to make it to the postseason. Their weakest position is second base, so Chisholm fits there as well. Seattle's farm system has a lot to offer, particularly on the hitting side in terms of prospects who aren't ready to help their 2024 team, but would be highly useful as part of Miami's rebuild.

As of this writing, Chisholm has $40.1M of surplus value as a trade asset, per Baseball Trade Values.

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[Slacker Mills]

The question here is: Why trade Jazz? You don't improve the team by trading the best player.

[FishFan93]

7 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

The question here is: Why trade Jazz? You don't improve the team by trading the best player.

In this case, it sorta is. If we had a farm system, I would completely agree with you. But we have nothing. If we smartly trade Jazz for multiple high-value prospects, then it would work out great....except FO is the same one who traded Arraez for literally nothing. Bendix and ownership are probably playing the game of "Marlins are expected to have 0 fans for the next 2-3 years; at least building the farm during another period of pain won't cause any immediate disastrous effects to the fanbase (as we basically have no fanbase already!)".

Absolutely, this will probably hurt way long-term by doing this, as any expectation for yet another rebuild to fix the team will ruin any goodwill if there was any left in the first place (there is no goodwill left, and the Savannah Bananas will be the first and only baseball team this year to sellout LoanDepot Park, god that hurts to say and Bruce absolutely should be ashamed when that happens).

[Slacker Mills]

I just floundered the last fifteen minutes of my life looking for a realistic Chisholm deal. I guess you could take a shot in the dark by sending him to Pirates for high first round picks Termarr Johnson and Henry Davis.  A second remote possibility might be Noelvi Marte and a second hitting prospect.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

I heard that the Marlins were willing to kick in a large selection of bling for Chisholm to dole out to his new teammates as a way of ingratiating himself. They also have several hundred signed video games still in the warehouse. 

[MarlinFaninGA]

I love to see the Marlins trading away one or more of their best players! It's really exciting! I'm only 55. I can probably wait another 20 years for a trip to the World Series. (total sarcasm)