Maybe JJ Bleday isn't such a big draft bust after all

[Ely Sussman]

Bleday has quietly emerged as the everyday center fielder for the A's.

The Miami Marlins ran out of patience with JJ Bleday, and I recall most people being okay with that. They swapped former first-round draft picks with the Oakland Athletics in advance of 2023 spring training: Bleday (2019 first-rounder) for A.J. Puk (2016 first-rounder) straight up. The thinking was that they had a greater need for a controllable, high-leverage reliever than a more controllable but less dynamic platoon corner outfielder.

When you draft the reigning SEC Player of the Year and a Golden Spikes Award finalist, you place expectations on them to be a key contributor at the major league level. Bleday's pedestrian production throughout his time in the Marlins organization made it difficult to envision him fulfilling his potential. The rapid progression of the players selected immediately after him made it all the more disheartening.

To Bleday's credit, he has gradually improved. Five years after entering professional baseball, he has become a well-rounded big leaguer.

Entering Monday, Bleday owns a .237/.321/.453 slash line this season, which translates to a great 123 wRC+ in what's been a challenging offensive environment. His strikeout rate has dipped to 18.4%, lower than it was with any of Miami's minor league affiliates. According to both defensive runs saved and outs above average, he rates as an average center fielder so far in 2024. Perhaps most impressively, he's done it while playing every single A's game and producing equally well against left-handed pitching as he has against righties.

Although not quite to the same extent as Bleday who was a sub-replacement level player as a Marlins rookie, Jesús Sánchez had also disappointed in 2022. He contributed just 0.3 fWAR in four-plus months prior to being demoted to Triple-A Jacksonville. He resurfaced during the final days of the regular season after excelling in the minors, apparently convincing the front office that he should still be ahead of Bleday on their outfield depth chart.

Did the Marlins choose correctly? It's still premature to reach a conclusion considering the gap between Sánchez's actual and expected results, but things are trending in Bleday's direction (also worth noting that Bleday has an additional year of club control and minor league options remaining just in case).

Only 16 months after parting with Bleday, the direction of the Marlins franchise has drastically changed. Instead of trading prospects to enhance their major league roster in pursuit of a postseason berth, they're on the other side of those conversations. Destined for one of MLB's worst records this season, they'll have a chance of receiving the top pick in the 2025 draft.

Let Bleday's story serve as a reminder that even for the most polished college stars, development is not always quick or linear. The critical question is whether the Marlins—under new baseball operations leadership—are finally equipped to mold young hitters into the best versions of themselves, or if we will continue to see their careers take off only following a change of scenery.

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

This is a fair and balanced article. I agree that the "so far" qualifier remains in effect. As we see often in sports, and as you noted, linear progression is not always the case, although the baseball system is forged that way. I liked Bleday's eye at the plate and worried about the puzzling holes in his swing. Still, I understood (but commented against moving so quickly) the trade, especially given Puk's problematic injury proclivities and the Marlins' centerfield hole at the time. There is always the nearly unquantifiable change of venue factors. Some factors, such as home ballparks, are better suited for some players. Of course, there are a variety of human intangibles, coaching efficacies, and just being given playing time to mature. Again, I will fall back on my simplistic baseball tagline - it's all a crapshoot. I think it keeps me even keeled (most of the time)!

[One Regend]

If it were up to me, if I were asked to make that trade again, I'd do it again in a heartbeat. Bleday was never going to work here. Not with the hitting philosophy we had here.

That said, it goes to show the fantastic (ly awful) work the Marlins coaches put into developing their players. I'm so glad that we've moved on from the Svihlik/Denbo era.