After unlucky start, Jesús Sánchez is getting the results he deserves

Miami Marlins outfielder Jesús Sanchez has always been near the top of exit velocity leaderboards since he broke into MLB. The issue in years prior, as many know, has been his ability to translate that pure power and strength to on-field success.

The most extreme example can be found in the aforementioned 2020 shortened season, when Sánchez was called up to make his debut in the 60-game sprint. Although the sample size is small (just 25 at-bats), Sanchez averaged 95.4 mph exit velocity, flashing his ability to impact the baseball at such a young age against big league pitching. The only problem? Sanchez went 1-for-25 with 11 strikeouts against said big league arms before being optioned back to the alternate training site, where he would remain for the rest of the season.

While Sánchez's potential has certainly flashed throughout his four years as a Marlin, entering the 2024 season, the now 26-year-old never hit above .253. He has struggled with working counts, poor chase and whiff rates, along with a high strikeout percentage his entire big league career.

We are now over two months into the 2024 season, and Sánchez is still doing what fans are accustomed to seeing out of him: hitting the baseball incredibly hard and putting up tape-measure home runs, while at the same time slashing a moderate .250/.305/.356. He's producing more like a replacement-level player than one that was once heralded as a Top 100 prospect.

Here is where things get interesting. Underlying metrics show that there have been significant, positive changes in his game this year, not just from 2023, but from his entire career. Sánchez has been one of, if not the unluckiest hitter in all of baseball.

For context, below is Sánchez's Baseball Savant batting profile from last season:

Here is the 2024 edition:

Sánchez has not only managed to increase his average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, but he has also lowered his strikeout percentage by over six percent. Combine all those factors together and you get the staggering expected stats at the top of his page.

First and most astonishing, Sánchez's expected slugging percentage is .511, a 155-point difference from his actual .356. That makes him MLB's unluckiest hitter, in terms of slugging, by a wide margin.

Moving to wOBA, a stat that is "formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed", Sánchez comes in at second-unluckiest with a .365 xwOBA. The 70-point gap between that and his .295 wOBA is just behind Chicago Cubs 3B Christopher Morel.

Finally, Sánchez's expected batting average sits at .291, higher than players enjoying great seasons such as Corey Seager and Gunnar Henderson. He is the 20th-unluckiest in baseball when contrasted to his current .250.

The good news for the young Dominican and Marlins fans alike is that after fifty-plus games of countless line drive outs and hard-hit balls being hit directly at defenders, Sánchez's luck is finally turning around.

Over the last 15 days, Sánchez is slashing .353/.405/.588 with 12 hits, two doubles and home runs and four RBI's. The most notable performance of this stretch came last Friday against the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers. Sánchez went 3-for-3 collecting both of the previously mentioned doubles, along with blasting a three-run home run to left-center field to give Miami some breathing room.

Against right-handed pitching, Marlins manager Skip Schumaker has kept Sánchez in the middle of the lineup all season (he'll bat fifth on Tuesday night vs. the Tampa Bay Rays). If these much-deserved results continue to come, this could be the breakout year from Sánchez that both the Marlins front office and fans have been waiting for.