Four Fire Sale Mock Trades.

[Sean McCormack]

     Four Fire Sale Mock Trades 

      With the trade of Luis Arraez, the Marlins are certainly looking toward the future and eyeing down another rebuild. I have identified four moves I believe the Marlins should make before the July 31st deadline. The mock trades are based on the process the Rays have shown when acquiring talent through trades. This falls in line with how Peter Bendix our new President of Baseball Ops views roster construction, since he is a former Rays GM. The Six players (Four Trades in total ) I have the Marlins moving are, Tanner Scott & Anthony Bender. Byran De la Cruz. Jazz Chisholm Jr. And finally Josh Bell & Patrick Monteverde. I will go in-depth on all prospects the Marlins acquired in the trades, and why they have a future in the Marlins Org.  

(Note: All prospect's ranks are found through MLB.com top 30 lists for their team. Prospects will also have FV placed next to their names to add their potential value according to FanGraphs.)

 

Tanner Scott & Anthony Bender to the Cubs 

      The First move I have mocked is one that has had some rumors surrounding it. The Cubs are on the hunt for an NL Central crown and are looking to boost their bullpen. Tanner Scott would give them a reliable high-leverage reliever or closer if those choose. While Bender who has underperformed his expected stats this season can give the Cubs a solid middle reliever with some team control left. The two prospects the Marlins will be getting in this deal are, Pedro Ramirez a 20-year-old INF in A+ who is ranked 14th in their system. The 2nd player in return is Double-A reliever Zac Leigh who is unranked. 

 

Cubs get- Tanner Scott LHRP & Anthony Bender RHRP 

Marlins get- Pedro Ramirez 3B/2B (13th) 45 FV , Zac Leigh RHRP (NR) AA 40 FV

 

      What do Ramirez and Leigh do well? To begin with, Ramirez has a highly advanced plate approach for his age, this season in A+ he has a .415 OBP. It is a small sample size but last year in A ball he had an 11% walk rate and only a 17% K rate as a 19-year-old with a .358 OBP. He is a smooth swinging switch hitter which adds to his appeal. He makes good contact rates and limits chase. There are some doubts if he can stick at 3rd base moving forward because he doesn't have the strongest arm, but he moves fast and has shown good feet at the hot corner. Zac Leigh was a 16th round draft pick by the Cubs in 2021 and has moved through their farm system as a reliever. He throws an above-average Fastball, slider, and changeup. Leigh so far in 2024 has a 12K/9, 4BB/9 with a 1.64 ERA and 2.59 xFIP in AA as a 26 year old. Leigh is more than ready for AAA and could be in our bullpen by the end of the season and into next year as a solid arm. 

 

 

Jazz Chisholm Jr to the Guardians 

      While it is sad to write about trading a fan favorite in Jazz Chisholm, it only makes sense to deal him if he gets hot before the deadline. Jazz so far isn't off to the best of starts for his standards with only a .702 OPS and 101 WRC+ but so far through 35 games, he has been healthy and as athletic as ever in CF and on the basepaths. Although, his numbers don't currently look great jazz has bumped his walk% 5 points this year up to a career high 11%, while still hitting the ball as hard as usual. So the outlook for the rest of Jazz 2024 looks promising if he completely gets it going and is back to All star Jazz form of the past couple of years, I see Peter Bendix capitalizing on his peak value with 3 years left of control and dealing him at the deadline. A team I identified as a suiter for Jazz is the Guardians who seem to always be in need of outfield help. The Guardians are off to a hot start and could look to add some bats to their lineup. Jazz would also bring good center field defense and elite speed as well. The prospects I have the Marlins getting in return are, Jaison Chourio a switch hitting 18 year old in A ball who is ranked 5th in the Guardians system, Matt Wilkinson a big righty starter in A ball who is torching his competition,  and Franco Aleman a high leverage arm in AAA who is ranked 28th in their org. 

 

Guardians get- Jazz Chisholm Jr OF

Marlins get- Jaison Chourio OF (5th) 50+ FV, Matt Wilkinson RHSP (NR) 45+ FV, Franco Aleman RHRP (28th) 40 FV

 

      To start this off getting both Chourio and Wilkinson may be far fetched. This is based on if Jazz can ramp up his offensive production by July and the Guardians are in first place in the AL Central. But, Jazz value will be at a all time peak and he is a known commodity. Chourio who would be the best prospect acquired in all these trades is the younger brother of former top 10 prospect and Brewers star Jackson Chourio.  Just like his brother Jaison is a very advanced prospect. in 22 games in A ball, he has a slash line of .291/.456/.443. This is an elite slash line for a 18 year old. He has shown to be a good defender in CF and will stick there, he is athletic and runs the bases well too. Chourio has all the makings to be a star in the future. He has shown no weakness in his game and will develop more power going into his 6'1 frame as he matures. I do expect Chourio to make 100 top prospect lists by mid season.  The 2nd prospect in this deal is Matt Wilkinson a righty starter who was drafted in the 10th round of the 2023 draft. Wilkinson was a CC pitcher at Central Arizona College, but it seems the Guardians found an absolute gem. Wilkinson who is nicknamed the "Tugboat" because he is 6'1 270, has shown incredible numbers to start his minor league career so far in A ball. Wilkinson who is a fresh 21 year old is leading all of minor league baseball in K% with 51% of batters he faces he is striking out, which at any level is incredible. What makes him even better is that he is only walking batters at a 10% clip. Even though he is somewhat unknown he is a future top 100 prospect in baseball. The final prospect in this deal is Franco Aleman a hard-throwing, high spin rate high leverage reliever. Franco was electric last season in AA throwing his 95-97 MPH fastball with high spin and a slider that gets a ton of whiff. He had 7 saves last season in AA with a 42% K rate and only a 5% walk rate. Aleman has continued that success into 2024 now at AAA, now with a 43% K rate but with a higher walk rate of 13%. He has an opp BA of .136 and a FIP in the 3s. This is a guy who can bolster our bullpen and be a potential closer for us in the future. 

 

 

Bryan De la Cruz to the Mariners

      In this deal I have the Mariners picking up De la Cruz. Bryan who has a solid career with the Marlins has never seen to really put it all together. He currently has a career best OPS of .758, he always seems to lead MLB in hard hit % and other metrics like that. What has held him back is plate approach with a bit too much swing and miss. With players like Dane Myers and Victor Mesa Jr performing well, it makes sense to move De la Cruz at the apex of his value and performace, along with his 3 years of control left. De la Cruz doesn't give much fielding value but the Mariners who have baseball's best rotation have a chance to grab the AL West division title and could look to add to their lineup. In this deal I have the Marlins landing, Ryan Bliss SS/2B who has the potential to be an everyday big leaguer or utility piece in the infield. The 2nd player in this deal is Jimmy Joyce who has shown some promise as a low end starter. He has been buried in the depth charts by this great rotation at the big league levels and has some shoulder concerns. The last prospect in this deal was a 17th round pick last year, but Jacob Sharp is a guy who has really impressed at the low levels to begin his career as a very athletic catcher with a good eye and approach at the plate. 

 

Mariners get- Bryan De la Cruz OF/DH

Marlins get- Ryan Bliss SS (11) 45 FV, Jimmy Joyce (21) 40 FV, Jacob Sharp (NR) 35+ FV

 

      The headliner of this deal is Ryan Bliss who is a smooth fielder and good hitter. Bliss was traded to the Mariners last season at the deadline which sent Paul Seawald to Arizona. Bliss since getting to Seattle system has put up a slash line of .243/.363/.444 in AAA. These aren't eye popping numbers but his value comes from his glove and base running. Bliss can be a league average hitter while giving the Marlins good defense. Jimmy Joyce is the 21st ranked player in the Mariners farm and I believe is an underrated arm. Joyce has gone less spoken about because of all the arms the Mariners have produced in the past few seasons. Joyce has shown the ability to command the baseball with a 2BB/9 in AA last season while having an 8K/9. He throws a high level changeup with an average fastball and slider. Joyce has a funky delivery which helps his fastball play up which leads to more Ks then what his pitch metrics may suggest. Little Shoulder injuries have held him back a bit from debuting in AAA, he is slightly older at 25 years old, but if his medicals clear out we could see him next season in the majors. Lastly, Jacob Sharp is the final player in this deal. Personally, I see him as a potentially underrated prospect. Sharp is largely unranked on any respected top Mariners prospect lists. Sharp was a late round draft pick last season who has gotten off to a hot start in A ball. He has a 175 WRC+ and walks 10% more than he strikes out at a 17% clip. He is an undersized catcher coming in a 5'7 180 and could find a position change as his career continues. Betting on an athletic catcher who has shown a good eye is something I'd bet on developing. 

 

Josh Bell and Patrick Monteverde to the Brewers 

     The final deal is our slugging first baseman and minor league arm going to the surging young Brewers to help their NL Central title push. Bell has gotten off to a slow start to the season, so this is forecasting him picking it up and a team potentially looking to add some nice pop to their lineup to finish the season. Monteverde is more of a throw-in player in this trade in order to pick up another prospect, but he does have some intrigue if you look back at his great 2023 AA season. I also have the Marlins sending cash in this deal to pay off the final amount of Bell's contract to sweeten the deal. The two players the Marlins would get in return are two pitchers, Tyler Woessner a Triple-A righty, and the Brewers 30th ranked prospect Ryan Birchard. 

 

Brewers get- Josh Bell 1B/DH, Patrick Monteverde LHSP (22) 40 FV, and Cash. 

Marlins get- Tyler Woessner RHSP (NR) 40+ FV, Ryan Birchard RHSP (30) 40+ FV

 

      The two pitchers the Marlins get in return are two underrated arms in a system that develops arms out of thin air. Tyler Woessner has been pushed aggressively by the Brewers. Woessner was drafted in the 6th round in 2022 of the same school Matt Wilkinson came from Central Arizona College funny enough. Woessner started in AA this season and made 4 starts where he put an ERA of 2.09 with a 2.03 FIP. He had a 13K/9 and a 2BB/9 which are elite numbers. Woessner is 24 years old and can see major league time as soon as this season, he has a nice arsenal of a fastball, slider, and changeup. He is a high spin rate fastball and slider pitcher who seems to be on the uptick in terms of player potential. Finally, Ryan Birchard who is ranked 30th in the Brewers farm was a JUCO draftee last season which the Brewers seem to hit on consistently. He has only pitched 4 innings but he was highly scouted in last season's draft being taken in the 5th round. Another high spin rate player who tops out at 98 mph on his fastball. Birchard got a ton of whiff up in the zone and was able to limit walks in college, his outlook also seems to be pointing up for the future. The Marlins would get 2 potential starters here. This trade would remind me a lot of the 2 arms the Rays got in the deal that sent Willy Adames to the Brewers, in Drew Rasmussen and JP Feyeresien. 

 

 

Thank you for reading

Sean McCormack 

 

[Ely Sussman]

I like all of these to varying degrees. Would surprise me if there's an opportunity to get that much value in return for De La Cruz, but if so, it's an easy call because of those internal corner OF alternatives, as you pointed out.

Not seeing Bell as a fit for the Brewers. They already got Rhys Hoskins and don't want to fully clog their DH spot (William Contreras usually goes there when he isn't catching).

[Sean McCormack]

1 hour ago, Ely Sussman said:

I like all of these to varying degrees. Would surprise me if there's an opportunity to get that much value in return for De La Cruz, but if so, it's an easy call because of those internal corner OF alternatives, as you pointed out.

Not seeing Bell as a fit for the Brewers. They already got Rhys Hoskins and don't want to fully clog their DH spot (William Contreras usually goes there when he isn't catching).

I agree on the DLC part, I’d be shocked as well but that return is definitely more of a Quantity over quality. On the Bell deal I had trouble finding a good fit for him. I picked the brewers because of their youth, he’d make a nice vet presence in a hitter friendly park . Also  Gary sanchez plays DH 23% of the time and shares with Contreras and Hoskins. Unless they want to continue that 3 way of Platoons, they could make Gary just a full time backup and start him when William needs a rest, while Hoskins and Bell split DH and 1st base, Just adds more flexibility, and if Bell is hitting the way he should be I think they’d prefer him over Gaby Sanchez at DH. 

[Chad Turner]

No one is going to want Bender coming off TJS, since he might get shut down by the deadline. Scott should net more than we gave up for Robertson last year though.  He should be traded ASAP.

I would be surprised if Jazz nets Jaison Chourio. More like the other two only.  He would have to really heat up.  But I do think he will be traded.  

No way we get 3 prospects for DLC.  He had a negative WAR last year.  Not exactly sure what a replacement level OF gets you.  

Hopefully Bell will heat up, but he's out of shape and has a bloated contract.  Plus he's off to a very slow start that I doubt he can get out of without protection in the lineup.  

I think we build around Burger.  I could see one of Luzardo or Garrett being traded if they are hot.  

 

 

[One Regend]

On 5/7/2024 at 11:08 AM, Chad Turner said:

No way we get 3 prospects for DLC.  He had a negative WAR last year.  Not exactly sure what a replacement level OF gets you.  

He is the one of very few hitters we have that is actually hitting above sea level this year. He's our best bat right now. There's only so much that last year's stats can tell you about a player.

It's honestly more about the market of a Corner OF/DH type player than just DLC himself.